"USMC - Unite Ireland?" Topic

I was in traffic the other day, and the vehicle in front of me had two bumper stickers:

United States Marine Corps

and

unite ireland

My first thought? No, let's not send the Marines to unite Ireland…

But then, being a wargamer, I started to think of what circumstances could lead to a modern Irish War of Unification.

You could go for near-future, maybe 2040, with both forces using equipment mostly available today.

Or do you go much farther future, into sci-fi, with hover vehicles or even grav tanks?

Since the population of Ireland is about 3.5:1 to the population of Northern Ireland, I would think the Northern Ireland side would need a technical or vehicular edge, support from the U.K., or mercenaries. (Historically, Northern Ireland had some industry; Republic of Ireland mostly did not.)

Of course, you have to come up with a reason why war could even break out – what has happened in the world, in Europe, and particularly to the U.K.

Would you treat it something like the Very British Civil War, except with a different timeline? Would you prefer a more 'realistic' simulation?

Would religion be a factor, or would you ignore that?

Would it be something like the Spanish Civil War, with various countries providing aid and forces?

Would you leave both sides as the democracies they are today, or would you imagine that to get to civil war, there must have been changes? Right-wing or left-wing governments, dictators, radical political movements?

From what I can tell on Wikipedia, the Republic of Ireland currently has 2 brigades; there is also a division into Infantry, Cavalry, Artillery and other corps. There is the Army Ranger Wing (special ops). The air force seems to be limited to helicopters. Navy has 8 patrol vessels.

Irish infantry are equipped with assault rifles, machine guns, grenade launchers, hand grenades, and anti-tank weapons. Most weapons used by their defence forces follow NATO standards, and are purchased from abroad, with Ireland having a very limited arms industry. The Army has light armoured vehicles, with the primary vehicle being the MOWAG Piranha, armed with machine guns. The Army also use the FV101 Scorpion armoured reconnaissance vehicle, equipped with a 76mm low velocity gun and a 7.62mm machine gun. Its artillery capabilities consist of 120mm mortars and 105mm light guns.

From Wikipedia, it seems Northern Ireland is defended by 38th (Irish) Brigade, comprising:

* 1st Battalion, Royal Regiment of Scotland in Belfast (Royal Scots Borderers) – apparently light infantry, now focused on anti-terrorism role

* 2nd Battalion, The Rifles in Lisburn (apparently another 'light infantry' unit)

* 7th Battalion, The Rifles in Reading (Army Reserve – paired with 2nd Battalion, The Rifles)

I realize I left out one option: Repeating history, what-if the UK attempts to conquer Ireland?

That would require some major changes in UK government, I would think, and what would be sufficient motive?

Thankfully, the current arrangements are too good for the locals on both sides of the border, and likely to get more so when(if?) the UK manages to leave the EU. (Duty Free weekends and smuggling)

If some functionary had a brain phart and attempted a 'Police Action' through the Irish Republic to wrest Northern Ireland from the UK or otherwise 'unite' the two parts, I could see the 'locals' coming together to sabotage any military action, no matter who started it. I seem to remember a few 1970's comedy movies with a similar plot of a 3 way conflict.

After a Brexit Ireland is part of the European Union and Northern Ireland is not. One could suppose that the people of Northern Ireland would love to keep the advantages of the EU and clever Irish politicians could make joining acceptable. This would mean a united Ireland. Since London would not like that,British troops enter Northern Ireland again. The US Government (pressured by the large Irish community there) finds this unacceptable, so London withdraws the army but keeps pro-English forces supported. The USMC is requested by Dublin for help and will fight those militias, supported by the Irish Army that however will not cross the borders with Northern Ireland. Since, BTW, Scotland has voted for independence, the 38th (Irish) Brigade had already lost one of its battalions and both Rifle Battalions have been withdraw to England.

I love the idea that there are advantages in being in the EU.

The position of Northern Ireland in the U.K. Is based on the majority of people there wanting to be so, it's nothing to do with what the government in London wants. When the majority wish to leave the UK, the British and Irish governments will facilitate that in a civilised and mutually helpful manner. Compare and contrast that with the EU's attitude towards the UK now.

I think Porthos has the most plausible suggestion. Try this timeline -

In 2019, as part of the Brexit deal, Ulster is granted a 'special status' as an associate member of the EU. As part of that deal the the UK inserts a hard border to control the movement of people fro Ulster. Ulster citizens retain their British citizenship, but with free movement within the EU. Another clause sees all UK regulars are withdrawn back to the mainland.

Almost immediately it is clear that the Irish govt is pushing for full reunification, and the hard line Unionists begin a campaign of civil disorder to end further progress. In an attempt to bring things to a head, a snap election for the Ulster parliament is called in April 2021, and to everyones surprise, the Unionists win big. However, the Nationalists use rules of the Good Friday deal prevent the formation of a stable govt.

The summer of 2021 sees widespread civil disorder and paramilitary roadblocks on the streets. Unionist paramilitaries begin attacking targets in Eire and 12th July 2021 sees a number of attacks in which several Irish politicians are killed, and army units are targeted. In reply, the Irish government hints at military intervention and mobilises some of it's reservists. Outraged by the idea, the Unionists establish an unofficial government of Ulster and call for the mobilisation of all Ulster units of the Reserve Army (the old TAVR).

Response is mixed, but respond to give the new 'Govt' a credible force of two battalions, artillery support and a recce squadron. The US Government (pressured by the large Irish community there) denounces this move, and encouraged by the US response the Dublin govt asks the US to send a 'peacekeeping' force.

Despairing of the situation and with an eye on the 2022 elections, all main UK parties call for calm and talks, but HMG quietly continues to supply the mobilised reservists.

As the first USMC troops begin to arrive, a mid ranking officer in Eire's #2 brigade exceeds his orders and takes troops across the border in pursuit of Unionist paramilitaries and is ambushed by members of 2nd Battalion The Royal Irish.

Comments welcome …

It would seem to me that this scenario would fit the thirties instead of modern era. I don't know the VBCW's timeline of events but the US sending a brigade of Marines and some mixed armor/cavalry units to aid Ireland from the depredations of VBCW or outright independence.

Financed by all those pot o' golds from Leprechauns to offset the Depression, mind you.:)

Northern Monkey, I did not intend to start a political discussion. Look at Ireland, where the financial impulses from the EU have substantially bettered its economical position. A simple, controlable, fact.
"Compare and contrast that with the EU's attitude towards the UK now." Uncalled for, I think. The EU just ask you to pay your debts.
Guthroth: I love your scenario! I only doubt the action of that mid ranking officer. He must surely know exactly the risks, and recognize the importance of the US Marines taking action.
skippyooo1: the VBCW starts with the refusal of Edward VIII to abdicate to be able to marry Mrs Wallis Simpson (around 1936 – link) Since the USA in this period was not keen on adventures overseas I do not expect them to send in the Marines then.

Thanks Porthos. One or two steps are stretching it a bit, but still plausible given the passions shown during the troubles.

I pitched the officer as mid rank thinking a Cpt or Major might get carried away in a "Hot Pursuit" situation.

It makes an interesting What-if and manageable skirmish scenario.

Skippy, I think the American-Irish had very little influence in the US in the 30s, and the policy of Isolationism would probably have kept the US well away.

Given the basis for the VBCW I rather imagine that the new Republic would use it as an excuse to get out of their Dominion status ASAP instead of waiting until 1948.

Does anyone REALLY need an excuse to game a cool idea?
Did I need an excuse when I had Orks invade Canada in 1887?
Or flying saucers over Cork in 1920?

Here's an excuse. Someone told Smedley Butler that there were bananas in County Mayo.

What Winston said. Don't think plausible, think big, think Hollywood, Michael Bay whatever. I can think of loads of fun reasons for the US Marines to serve In Ireland, especially given the state of modern politics. A VBCW type scenario would be fun too.

I always think of 70s boys comics where a wartime scenario would be concocted using rule of cool. So you'd have an German unit led by a reincarnated Viking, or a down on their luck army unit who happen to find a shed full of WW1 era tanks just in time to employ them to repel an overwhelming attack.

YouTube link

Because when the proposition "USMC + Unite Ireland" is made, there is a certain mindset which automatically assumes that means "Unite Ireland under the tricolour by helping the Eireann forces sieze the British bit."

The same wording could just as easily mean "Unite Ireland under the Union Flag by helping British forces sieze the Eireann bit."

In a "what-if" game, the obvious setting is WWII.
Clandestine ROI aid to Nazi U-boats – in return for promises of post-war independence – prove crucial. Allied forces must intervene or lose the Battle of the Atlantic, and an already over-extended Britain can't do it alone.

Just for context … there are 6 million Irish in Ireland … But 30 million in the USA … No wonder St. Pat's Day is so big in the US !

LOL! You are Jack Charlton and I claim my five pounds.

Marines can be strange with bumper stickers.
I once saw a truck with USMC license plates and a bumper sticker that read "Question Authority!"

I thought, with the Marines, that really ought to be "Question Authority, SIR!"