"If North Korea Sub Launched An EMP Nuke Off The US Coast ..." Topic

Think of a North Korean submarine getting to within a few miles off the US coast and then launching one of their already tested missiles …

Is this 20-year old map (1997) of a high altitude EMP burst over central US still accurate?

link

Q #1 – And how catastrophic could it really be on the US nowadays, when we're so much more dependent on delicate electronics than we were in 1997?

Q #2- Would US troops still be able to respond to infiltration by commandos after a 300 mile altitude EMP burst?

I know that the T-3 is reputed to have sufficient range:

Q #3 – But I'm thinking that a submarine launch from a couple of hundred miles off our coast would be more logical, as it would greatly shorten our response time. Wouldn't you think?

Dan

On the East coast, I probably couldn't post on tmp from my cell phone.

What?!?! No TMP!

Oh God, that's the end of the world then. :)

Dan
PS. NOTE – the map in this 2017 article makes an altitude of 249 miles produce the same damage as the previous 300 mile estimate from 1997 (20 yrs ago):
link

The TD3 must reach the US first. These missiles are very unreliable. Then it must get through the US ABM defenses.
After the failed attempt to nuke the US, the N. Koreans get to see what B-2 delivered nukes can do to their country.

Mark

Onomarchos, if he already thinks he's about to be ousted (by one of his or by an agent), he might be crazy enough to make an stealth attack his big exit move.

NOTE – The scenario is one of a North Korean submarine* (built or acquired by them) getting to within a few hundred miles off the US coast before launching one of their nukes.

Dan
* Perhaps refueled by a ship mid-way?

Aren't the NK subs reportedly in bad shape, maintenance wise?

While our fleet gets into position, a few of his subs could already be out to sea, headed our way. With so many of our vessels preoccupied around the peninsula, one or two single subs could be refueled out at sea and potentially reach our mainland coast, right?

I guess the question is how many of these (or one acquired by them) could be fitted with one or two nuclear missiles?

link

Dan

I would be rather doubtful that a NK sub would manage to make the trip undetected.

Garrison,

What about under or "masked by" a large commercial vessel?

Or bypass the sub altogether and just launch the missile(s) from a disguised large commercial ship, right? Perhaps a large vessel previously reported missing (as keeps happening in Malaysia)?

Dan

Be more worried about a simple fission device inside a container, detonated at a West Coast port. That is actually possible with current demonstrated capabilities.

SouthernPhantom,

I think he could have done that already, the moment he detonated his first nuke test. Or even with a dirty bomb long ago.

No. I think he wants the missile to be the delivery system "to cripple America" as he keeps saying. The impact of a single suitcase bomb would be like a firecracker to him. He wants maximum bang for all his investment. That's why he has stepped up all the missile testing.

Dan

He wants a missile system because he wants to show the appearance of threatening America. I't MAD again…if he can demonstrate publically that he can attack the US, then he has some safety from the US launching a strike against North Korea. Then they can keep threatening war in order to bully the US or the world into continued aid for his nation. If he really wanted to cripple the US, nuking Los Angeles would do very well in that regard (the impact in trade would be catastrophic, not to mention loss of life).

Also Re: an SSB lurking under a container ship. These things are diesel electrics, so I have to wonder on their capacity to stay submerged for that duration…

Damon.

AFAIK the North Koreans might have got their hands on one or two old Golf submarines (the SSB version of the Soviet Foxtrot class). They might have modified the hulls or used them as an inspiration for new vessels.

No matter the choice the type was obsolete in the 70's and I doubt that the subs would get in launch position without any warning.

The US Navy has disbanden A LOT if not most of its airborne antisubmarine capabilities. The only airborne subhunters in carrier groups are the Seahawks. On the other hand even new North Korean subs are noisy. Diesel subs can drift or lay totally quiet but I doubt the NK has the technology to keep the subs under the surface more than a few days or maybe only one day.

My bet is that he keeps a sub with a few ballistic missiles on standby near or inside the NK territorial waters if anyone start what the regime sees as offensive operations. As soon as the junk starts moving they will be hunted.

In all probability, the missile would explode in the tubes, or within moments of launch, and the warhead would be a dud anyway, and the guidance system wouldn't be able to find a fully lit up Las Vegas on a clear night with direction signs in place.

I'm really not worried about North Korea's crappy subs or their crappy sailors or those crappy missiles ever seriously threatening the continental US or even Hawaii. A shipping container nuke is a greater danger.

@Garand: "keep threatening war in order to bully the US or the world into continued aid for his nation"

Well, according to North Korea expert Michael Malice, Lil' Kim turned away all the recent foreign aid because he said people should look to their own leaders to help the nation, and not to help from the world.

That's the reason so many people starved, even though food could have gotten to them in time.

Dan

The Gorae can only carry one or two missiles in the conning tower. As you can see on the picture there isn't much room.

They remind me of the Upholder/Victoria class. Though the technology inside is probably on a level several decades after the West and Russians.

Anyone notice how much of Canada and Mexico is covered
by the highest airburst ?

Wonder if they're worried over the prospect…

Not that long ago the scenario was floated of an Iranian SCUD with a nuke warhead launched from a container ship off the East Coast for an EMP attack.

Makes more sense for the North Koreans to do something similar.

A lot easier to use a surface vessel for delivery than a sub.

And you don't need a long ranged missile.

Use three – one off each coast and you don't need to reach those altitudes either.

Why? Why would N. Korea launch a nuclear weapon at the USA when such a launch would be detected and and quickly traced back and connected to a N. Korean launch platform. This would trigger a massive US response (likely a nuclear one) which would end N. Korea. The US would recover, N. Korea would not.

If N. Korea uses a nuclear weapon it will likely be in Korea or in East Asia. It wants the nukes to protect itself from foreign military intervention like a nuclear tipped hedgehog and not to commit lemming-like suicide on a nation wide scale.

Since we're into the realm of the fantastical here, a more plausible scenario is a false-flag EMP attack wrongly attributed to N. Korea. This attack would actually be launched by radical authoritarian elements within the US deep state and defence establishment to paralyse the US citizenry while a military junta seized power in America and ended out-moded democracy.

Rod Robertson

Rob,

Wow. Don't know what else to say.

Dan

Rob,

Do you drop down to Colorado often?

You know, to take in the "air".

:)

Vince

Gents:

The name is Rod, not Rob.

N. Korea probably does not have the ability to produce a thermo-nuclear warhead capable of creating a widespread EMP effect. Back in the early 1960's the first EMP tests were done with H-bombs yielding just under 1.5 megatons. These were launched to an altitude of about 400 Km and detonated. While the local ground effect of the EMP multi-pulse was right off the scales of the detection devices, the longer range ground effects were very mild. They did manage to fry about a half dozen satellites including a Soviet one. They also apparently knocked out the first of the Telstar satellites IIRC. But there was little disruption to ground electrical systems in Hawaii which was near the test zone. I don't think N. Korea is able to make thermonuclear bombs yet, so atomic EMP bombs with yields in the 30 K-ton range will likely fall far short of producing the effects which the OP shows in his map above.

Rod Robertson.

Rod,

"…radical authoritarian elements within the US deep state and defence establishment…" Fascinating---more info please.

Why? Why would N. Korea launch a nuclear weapon at the USA when such a launch would be detected and and quickly traced back and connected to a N. Korean launch platform.

You're too sane & logical Rod. The question is if Kim Jong-un is. The problem with pushing a crazy person is you can't expect a rational response.

Ochoin,

Spot on. The Rational Choice Theory does not apply to Lil' Kim. He does not think like most leaders do. If he senses that his rule is near, he couldn't care less what happens to his country.

Dan

If North Korea just wanted to hurt the US, I think they would try not to put their signature on it. A bomb in a cargo container might be more likely.

A missile might more likely be an attempt to impair the US's ability to respond to an invasion of South Korea. And, in the invasion cover scenario, I would expect subs, land based SSMs and less conventional methods such as the shipping container options to all be used.

I find all of the above exceedingly unlikely though. Kim is better off playing the US off of the Chinese and vice versa, without pushing anyone far enough to just take him out. See how much he can aggravate us, what deals can be made, and maybe even instigate others shooting at each other (i.e, China and US), rather than him.

I think having the weapon in his inventory is more important to Kim than actually using it. He can posture, and threaten, and maybe feel a little less insecure if he has it, but the second he uses it, he loses most of the value of such a weapon, and he can't stop what will likely happen in response.

Regarding the effect of an EMP weapon, the effect will be proportional to the scope of the attack, but I think it will be very similar to Forstchen's book, One Second After. Some aircraft will fall out of the sky, people with medical conditions won't last long, food and medicine won't be able to moved to people, nor can the people be moved to food and medicine. The higher the population density, the uglier it will get more quickly as social structure and order breaks down.

The higher up the elements of government and military, the more hardened they will be against such attack. I expect that there would be a response with strategic weapons, but that most resources would be invested in responding to the disaster domestically.

Commando attacks will be irrelevant, as the scale of problems from a commando attack will be invisible in the shadow of that from the EMP attack. Additionally, every American who belongs to a minority that might be blamed for an attack would be at risk, this will include the commandos. So many Americans are armed, that between vigilantes, outlaws, and heavily burdened and mildly pissed off survivors, I think the Commandos will have a tough time of it.

Maybe as interesting as anything else from the gamer standpoint, would be the events in the world that might take place if the US is put out of action with an EMP weapon. What does Vlad do in Europe or elsewhere, all those fun guys in the Middle East and Africa could get creative, South American, etc. What happens when US support, policing, intervention, interference and meddling goes away?

pzivh43:

There is no more info to be had as it's a flight of fancy as far as I know. Sort of like this whole thread since North Korea would have to produce a thermonuclear device with 50 times the yield of the atomic device they detonated last year. They don't have the ability to make a nuclear EMP weapon which could damage more than a local area right now.

Ochoin:

The problem with pushing a crazy person is you can't expect a rational response.

Maybe don't push around the crazy guy. Might that not be a good starting strategy? Stop encircling the only regional superpower which can exercise any meaningful restraint on Kim Jong-Un and the military regime which are the DPRK state. N. Korea should be contained and not confronted if the leadership is as crazy as you intimate. I don't believe that either Kim Jong-Un or the military leadership are loco. If they're crazy, they're crazy like a fox, with design behind their apparent madness.

To All:

For reasons which elude me, the US and its media insist on painting foreign leaders whom they oppose as characitures, cartoon-like villains who act dramatically and stupidly. This personification of US policy and war is bizarre to non-Americans who wonder why the US does this. The military leadership of North Korea are neither madmen nor sychofantic toadies who will happily follow their present leader into nuclear destruction. Kim Jong-Un was likely raised as a spoiled and pampered brat but he also was taught how to survive and consolidate his power as best he can. Neither he nor his generals are suicidal. They do however see the advantage of cultivating that image in order to give potential adversaries pause and induce them to have a sober, second thought about attacking the DPRK directly. If backed into a corner they could be provoked into going nuclear, but if contained properly they they only pose a real existential threat to the poor wretches who are the North Korean people.

This hysterical approach to North Korea has another political purpose. It is to box in the more moderate South Korean parties which will likely ascend to power as a result of the scandals which have rocked the conservative and pro-military South Korean establishment. If a change of guard occurs then the US could lose new naval bases and find the South less cooperative with encircling growing Chinese power in the region. By ratcheting up tensions now the US hopes to limit more moderate South Korean policy makers from exercising a full spectrum of options with respect to US policy and regional affairs. Always ask, "Cui bono?", and the bread crumbs will be easier to find and follow. These are mind-games more than wargames which the US and the South Korean establishment are cooperating in right now. The target is limiting South Korean democracy from reacting against the regional policies of the US and the cooperative South Korean 'Old Guard' Chaebol.

Rod Robertson.

Maybe don't push around the crazy guy.

That would be a definite consideration. One crazy guy in the room is generally sufficient.

the US and its media insist on painting foreign leaders whom they oppose as characitures

I generally agree but Kim Jong-un could be unstable, certainly erratic, undoubtedly dangerous.

This strikes me as quite a balanced article:
link

Clearly he gets some bad press but in spite of this consider who he is & what he does.

Hereditary rulers who run Stalinist style countries & brutally execute opponents (the half brother at the Malaysian airport)and threaten nuclear attacks are to be viewed with suspicion. And do I need to mention the Dennis Rodman thing?

Well, for what is worth, D.C. is on high terrorism alert this week.

"Washington D.C. To Hold Massive 'Coordinated Terror Attack' Drill This Wednesday"
link

Hmm. Maybe it's all one big coincidence?

@IrishSerb: "Maybe as interesting as anything else from the gamer standpoint, would be the events in the world that might take place if the US is put out of action with an EMP weapon. What does Vlad do in Europe or elsewhere, all those fun guys in the Middle East and Africa could get creative, South American, etc. What happens when US support, policing, intervention, interference and meddling goes away?"

What happens if, for whatever reason, the US is out of the picture? Maybe the world will react a bit like it does in this documentary, The World Without US:

YouTube link

Dan

Cacique Caribe:

Wednesday is shaping up to be a strange day as the entire Senate has been summoned to the White House for a terrorism briefing from the NSC.
That's an awful lot of eggs in one basket at one time. The President, Secretary of Defence, Secretary of State, Commander of the Joint Chiefs, the Heads of Intelligence, 100 hundred senators and who knows who else all in one place and well advertised ahead of time. I wonder who the designated surviours will be?

link

Maybe the military junta idea wasn't as far fetched as I imagined. Or maybe I'm just too suspicious. Well we'll all know by week's end I suppose.

Rod Robertson

Rod, I think it's laying the groundwork to get Senate approval for lobbing bombs at the DPRK, really, rather than a plot to blow up the White House!

First off, the "EMP scare" is vastly overrated. One or two nuclear weapons exploded at high altitude isn't going to do much and the effects of this have been exaggerated in my opinion to get funding for various "EMP hardening" projects. If you can find it online, the Russians did a test on one of their own towns in the 60s or 70s, which had negligible effects. EMP won't fry fiber optics, many types of co-axial cables, diminishing effects in cars or buildings, military electronics are hardened against it, and it would be far more effective to just nuke cities than try for a massive EMP outage.

If you have a commander who "thinks like a pirate",though…..

aegis is right. The "EMP scare" has been overhyped in non-fiction and fiction alike, especially in a bestselling novel endorsed by neo-cons like Newt Gingrich by William Fortschen called 'One Second After.' In this novel, the EMP was deployed precisely the way goragrad mentioned, by container ship.

As for nukes, the reason NK wants them is the same as Iran's. One is deterrence from potential invasion from S. Korea and her US allies. As some have pointed out on TMP more than once, there are many in the ROK army champing at the bit to cross the DMZ and unify Korea once and for all. From a strictly conventional standpoint, NK is no match for the south and is only getting weaker. In this view, nukes are a cheap "equalizer" for weaker states to deter stronger ones.

However, the real value of nukes is that they provide a trump card that elevates the bargaining position and "untouchability" of any nation possessing them. A nation with nukes not only has less to fear from Idealpolitik- and globalist-driven regime change but also has freer rein to pursue its sphere-of-influence and regional ambitions through conventional methods.

The real reason for keeping nukes out of the hands of NK and Iran, therefore, has much less to do with any threat they pose through the potential actions of their irrational leaders as the need to keep rogue states that had the gall to defy the western globalist world order weak and powerless.

If you lived in Israel or even knew anyone who visited/lived there, you would see another far more valid reason for wanting to keep Iran from getting nukes.

Also, I'm not all that sure the South want to unify with the North. The lesson learned from East Germany.

Everyone I spoke to in the ROK saw unification as an inevitability. They always spoke of it as when not if.

If you lived in Israel or even knew anyone who visited/lived there, you would see another far more valid reason for wanting to keep Iran from getting nukes.

I know more than a few people who have lived or visited there. I'm still in favor of Iranian nukes.

Great. Now we have to worry about North Korea pointing their Dong at us?

And that went downhill…

@Saltflats: Sadly, yes, we do need to worry about the Norks waving their Dongs at us. (Innuendo completely intended)

But when China gives a "red line" threatening military invasion of North Korea, well, the Kim Dynasty may be shorter lived than we thought.

What's China's "red line," you ask? It's the threat of nuclear contamination of northeast China. Not actual contamination, just the threat of it. So I'm sure that the US threatening to destroy North Korea's plutonium refinement capabilities (aka targeting active nuclear reactors) would quickly result in China going in to stomp Lil Kim before the US hit the reactors.

A short piece on EMP vs "conventional" nukes on yesterday's Morning Edition:

link

I recommend a listen,for immediacy.