"Beijing Warns a ‘Storm is About to Break’ as..." Topic

… Tensions Mount Over North Korea.

"China warned that a "storm is about to break" on the Korean peninsula as the US moved warships to the area and Pyongyang stepped up a threat to defend itself with nuclear weapons in the face of pressure from President Donald Trump.

Speaking a week after Mr Trump held a summit with China's President Xi Jinping when the two leaders held discussions about North Korea, Wang Yi, the Chinese foreign minister, said the situation was on a "knife edge".

Cautioning of the risk of a breaking storm, he urged all parties to "refrain from provoking and threatening each other . . . and not let the situation get to an irreversible and unmanageable stage."
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Amicalement
Armand

I fear that most Americans think this is risk-free and that mainly Koreans or perhaps some Japanese might get killed -- but significant US casualties are likely to result from a full-blown Second Korean War, if this is all that counts in US eyes. Unlike Iraq or Syria or the Taliban, NK can actually hit back.

There seems to be a rush to war that is based on fear or insecurity and grandstanding as much as anything else. From ALL parties involved.

@Piper: This wouldn't be a "second" Korean war. North and South Korea have been at war since 1950, it's only a temporary cease-fire that has held since 1953!

Fine. Let North Korea throw the first punch. The second one will be a knockout. Sailing in international waters is not an act of war. Get real.

They do realize that war means the destruction of Seoul, a city of 10 million people. That is like losing New York City.

No way to win this war either. Number one the Chinese do not want the two nations combined again. Number two, the South doesn't really want to pay to reunite the two countries. After seeing how much it cost Germany. But if you have a war, the cost will be beyond measure.

I spent my 20 years in uniform during the Cold War and the first Gulf War, my son spent his time in those two hell holes that are still going on. I don't want him or the older grand kids getting caught in this stupid mess.

Some things are not worth dying over.

So, just out of sincere curiosity, Do we just hope NK eventually just go's away?

Regards
Russ Dunaway

Yes, the reason they're still around is that all the other options are far far worse.

We (the West) managed to outlive the Soviet Union, and not provoke OR be provoked into a shooting war, and that was a MUCH more powerful and serious threat to the world than No.Korea. Sometimes patience and calm IS a virtue. This stampede to war here, war there by the US looks like the classic trap of "every problem looks like a nail and all you have is a hammer."

In fairness, the old Soviet Union regime was – despite all media hype to the contrary – at least mentally stable enough to understand the concept of MAD. The present NK leader – a man who had his own brother murdered in public to "send a message" – is, IMO, not.

As pointed out by others the real 'war' will be over who ends up in control of a post-Kim NK. No doubt that China would like a NK vassal state rather than a united Korea, but given Korean history I'm not sure that wouldn't just storing up trouble for the future (and aren't the PRC supposed to be noted for their long game?)!

If it comes to a shooting conflict I suspect that NK will unravel – how quick I think depends on how many of Kim's inner circle are 'true believers' and just how many will flee across the border with their Swiss bank passbooks once its clear the gig is up. I don't see the Chinese riding to Kim's rescue – orchestrating a coup that replaces him with another member of the dynasty who knows firmly that his existence is entirely on their sufferance, yes. China's posting of extra troops to the border area suggests they are less than confident of NK's much vaunted social cohesion.

Of course what the butchers bill will be for one family's hubris is another.

Of course what the butchers bill will be for one family's hubris is another.

Perhaps the hubris of two families are at play here?

Rod Robertson.

Actually, I'm not sure the current incumbent of the White House's hubris is the problem here (save in seeking high office) – taking the endless stream of 'we will bury you' rhetoric personally maybe…

On the other hand NK (and a number of other regimes) like to run around decrying the west as some hideous existential threat to their freedom (to screw their own population) for years knowing that western diplomat corps and media will largely ignore it for the propaganda it is. And now they have to deal with someone who takes the stuff at face value or at least treats it as such…

We may now we may get to find out who the smart tyrants are, who know when to shut up, and the ones who have started to believe their own press! Trump's biggest mistake maybe over-assuming the amount of control China can exert over NK – and its quite possible that Beijing aren't disabusing him of that over-assumption. I'd guess that NK being able to turn Seoul into a parking lot will probably stop any unilateral strike – but will NK continue to use nuclear weapon tests as a way of controlling the international agenda?

Personally I am not offended by any of this, but wouldn't it be more appropriate to have this discussion on the Blue Fez?

Latest NK missile test a total flop; predict several NK rocket scientists about to undertake very low calorie diet and/or die of severe lead-poisoning.

And the whole situation could naturally defuse as NK demonstrates its overwhelming mastery of 20thC technology…

Well there is probably a really interesting mega game scenario in this – 'What to do about a problem called Kim Jong-un'.

The press: "Mr. Secretary is the U.S. considering a preemptive strike on North Korea?"

The Secretary: "All options are on the table."

…later in the day on tv news, headline begins
Newsman: "The administration said today that it is not ruling out a preemptive strike on North Korea."

Would someone clue in the press that "all options are on the table" is always a valid reply from government officials.

It's getting harder and harder to tell if the US is either really good at "cyber warfare" (however this affects hostile missile technology) or if No. Korea is just really bad at building missiles….

I'd go with 'bad' at building missiles – though to what extent 'bad' is down to starting a missile programme from scratch or a political system that begins to make Mao's Cultural Revolution a sane and moderating political programme is an open question… Frankly NK is so unconnected that attempting to do what the Israelis' did to Iran's enrichment program is probably a non-starter. Bearing in mind just how much science and technology is down to 'standing on the shoulders of giants' etc I've no idea how development plays out in a country where at least on one level all children seem to be taught that pretty much everything is down to the munificence of the Kim dynasty and where screwing up could be life-limiting rather than just career-limiting!