"A Counterfactual Study of the Charge of the Light Brigade" Topic
5 Posts
All members in good standing are free to post here. Opinions expressed here are solely those of the posters, and have not been cleared with nor are they endorsed by The Miniatures Page.
Please do not post offers to buy and sell on the main forum.
For more information, see the TMP FAQ.
Back to the 19th Century Discussion Message Board
Areas of Interest19th Century
Featured Hobby News Article
Featured Link
Featured Ruleset
Featured Showcase ArticleIt's probably too late already this season to snatch these bargains up...
Featured Book Review
|
Martin From Canada | 03 Apr 2017 1:34 p.m. PST |
link A Counterfactual Study of the Charge of the Light Brigade David Connors, Michael J. Armstrong & John Bonnett Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History Vol. 48 , Iss. 2,2015
Researchers use a mathematical model to perform a counterfactual study of the 1854 Charge of the Light Brigade. They first calibrate the model with historical data so that it reproduces the actual charge's outcome. They then adjust the model to see how that outcome might have changed if the Heavy Brigade had joined the charge and/or if the charge had targeted the Russian forces on the heights instead of those in the valley. The results suggest that all the counterfactual attacks would have led to heavier British casualties. However, a charge by both brigades along the valley might plausibly have yielded a British victory. I came across this paper at work today, and I thought I'd share it. Cheers, Martin
|
willlucv | 03 Apr 2017 1:57 p.m. PST |
Is there any version of the facts that doesn't result in massive loss of life for the British? |
Herkybird | 03 Apr 2017 2:47 p.m. PST |
Remember though, the Heavy brigade had fought off a massive Russian cavalry force a few hours earlier, and were not at full combat efficiency. I wonder if an Light Brigade had charged the Russians on the Causeway heights would have worked if brigaded with the Chasseurs d'Afrique? |
advocate | 04 Apr 2017 2:40 a.m. PST |
Having read the article, it doesn't seem like rocket-science – or something that couldn't have been thought through using a board or figure game. - reinforcing the charge might have given them a chance of success against the cavalry at the end of the valley; - charging uphill against combined arms would likely have been even less successful. And like the games, the analysis of what might-have-happened benefits enormously from hindsight and the all-knowing general. |
Smokey Roan | 18 Apr 2017 8:55 p.m. PST |
Neat stuff, Martin! Considering everything, the British casualties were kinda light, IMO. The Heavy Brigade may have caused a general Russian route, I'd think? |
|