"Winter of 1978-1979" Topic

I am thinking of writing a scenario for a ficticious German Civil War during the winter of '78 to '79 and I was wondering what the history buffs thought of its plausibility. The scene is set in the turbulent winter of 1978-1979, when British society has completely unraveled. Labour strikes leave trash piling up in the streets, the dead go unburied and the Callaghan goverment falls apart in the chaos of rioting and spiralling unemployment. Meanwhile, the height of "détente" politics, and an inward isolationist turn in American politics following the disaster of the Vietnam War and the scandal of the Nixon administration, leave a feckless and ineffective Carter administration with an unclear policy towards Soviet expansion and aggression. Finally, with the mandate of the center-right and Gaullist coalition victory in the 1978 legislative elections, French president Valéry Giscard d'Estaing pursues a new policy for a stronger and united Europe, independent from both Soviet and Anglo-American political orbits.

Within the Soviet Union, military parity with the Western powers has been achieved for the first time in the history of the Cold War. While the standing détente policy prevented outright Soviet aggression and expansion in Europe and abroad, staunchly Marxist undercurrents within the Communist Party put pressure on General Secretary Brezhnev to take more direct action to advance the historical objectives of global socialism. Plans are put in place for expanding the reach of the worker's revolution into Europe.

During the tumultuous crisis governments of Western Germany in 1977, Erich Honecker warns West Germany that the GDR will not stand idly by while the Federal Republic enacts the authoritarian measures of an emergency police state, curtailing the human rights agreements established under the Helsinki Accords. Reemphasizing the German Democratic Republic's mission to secure German reunification under Socialist governance, Honecker militates against Western German imprisonment and extrajudicial killings of RAF members and protesters, suggesting that the political and human rights of all Germans fall under the aegis of the GDR. Finally, as the East-West German relationship crumbles, Honecker announces in November 1978 that the Federal Republic has failed to live up to the Helsinki Accords for human rights and to protect, serve and represent the German people of West Germany. In the midst of global indecisiveness, elite formations of the Nationale Volksarmee roll across the border between East and West Germany in a surprise attack that stuns the world.

Brezhnev is quick to warn Western forces to stay out of the conflict, arguing that it is an internal affair for the German people to resolve and any foreign involvment would threaten global security and the order of the détente doctrine. Even then, BAOR and American observers report sightings of unmarked, possibly Soviet military formations following in the wake of the East German vanguard. Brezhnev denies any such forces, admitting only to a small force of Warsaw Pact peace keepers, tasked with making sure Western powers did not interfere with the German Civil War, and to provide aid and protection to vulnerable and displaced civilian populations. Consumed with pressing issues on the homefront and handicapped with a weak foreign policy posture towards Soviet aggression, Britain and America waffle indecisively on "the German problem." France avoids commitment to either Soviet or Anglo-American political orbits by remaining neutral, seeing the unification of Germany as a potential step towards a more powerful, united and independent Europe.

Left alone, the West German Bundeswehr fights a hard battle, delaying and even turning back the numerically smaller Volksarmee at a handful of decisive battles. Seeing no other option, the Soviets commit their troops more fully, leading to initial confusion for Western occupation armies, engagement and finally full scale nuclear warfare by the end of the winter of 1978 to 1979.

The scenario is a "what if" scenario about the Cold War, but obviously it is supposed to play creatively with contemprary political events in 2017, such as the wave of populism and isolationist rhetoric in Western countries in the past few years, Brexit, and the wargames played by Putin's Russia in the Crimea and Ukraine recently. The object for Warsaw Pact players would be to achieve German Unification before Soviet forces need be committed, thus avoiding global nuclear war. The Western objectives are to contain the East German forces and defend democratic Western Germany from Soviet aggression. It strikes me that the final years of the 1970's represent Western society at its weakest and Soviet military power at its strongest, which I think makes for a compelling scenario and perhaps a commentary on the risks of becoming politically introverted.

Neat ideas! Big up the IRA, and Libya [with or without Soviet/American sponsorship], and I think you've got something!

"Erich Honecker warns West Germany that the GDR will not stand idly by while the Federal Republic enacts the authoritarian measures of an emergency police state, curtailing the human rights agreements established under the Helsinki Accords".

ROFLMAO……..

Hysterical laughter over that line, given the East German Stasi.

An attack on Berlin might be possible, and/or plausible, but certainly not West Germany being attacked by East Germany, without Soviet and/or Warsaw Pact support.

Yeah, a little bit of irony there, and one not lost on us in an age of Putin, I presume!

The least plausible part of all this, I think, is Honecker actually going on the offensive. It was under his rule that East Germany really turned inward and gave up on the idea of unification. Most likely, if there was ever going to be a conventional military clash, East Germany would be on the defensive. There were plans in place for marching to Bonn of course, but they assumed a conflict started by the West that forced East Germany to fight to survive. I handwaive that by saying that the Kremlin made the call to force a war and Honecker simply obeyed his masters, but I'm not certain if that answer is satisfactory.

I could make the scenario a little more detailed and talk about riots being squashed in West Berlin as peaceful protests against the Crisis Government for curtailing the rights of due process turn violent (incited perhaps by Stasi agents). This chaos might be an opportunity for East German formations in Berlin to roll across the border.

Adding a Martian invasion/intervention in support of the GDR might enhance the credibility of the scenario. It certainly won't detract from it.

Why are the West Germans using extra-judicial killings to deal with the Red Army Faction? That seems a bit excessive when all the FRG needed to do was arrest and prosecute them. Did the RAF undertake some huge terrorist attack that had a chilling effect on Western European liberalism? The idea that the SDP's Helmut Schmidt would out-authoritarian Honecker was a bit odd too.

Having quibbled shamelessly, I now must say that I find the idea of a Cold War era German civil war a fascinating one. How could the elections of 1976 have produced a government and a crisis which could have brought Germans to arms by 1978-79? I do not know, but I will think about it. Perhaps a nuclear, chemical or biological accident at a US or British leased military base could have caused an upheaval which so destabilised the FRG elections that authoritarian measures were deemed necessary?

Cheers and good gaming.
Rod Robertson.

If you go back a decade or so, there were some rumblings about the Soviets wanting all of Berlin, and tensions were really high, so that is a plausible scenario in my book.

The Soviets also shot one of our "inspectors/observers" (I forget the correct technical term) in East Germany, and wouldn't let other Americans provide aid to him, so he died.

That would certainly be a decent incident you could build a story around.

Well historically the FRG did not explicitly engage in "extrajudicial killings." Rather, this was a claim made by critics when some RAF members were killed during counter-terrorism operations under suspicious grounds (some RAF members were unarmed, appeared to have been shot "execution style" rather than in the heat of things, some were reported to have committed suicide but the autopsies didn't support the FRG police narrative etc). But technically, this was always denied by the police and remained sort of popular conspiracy theories.

I mean, we gotta get our toy soldiers to shoot at each other, right?

:)

Not sure what Begemot is trying to say.

To me your idea makes sense. You have altered some facts of course. But anyone who does Cold War as an actual war has to alter facts.

Oh, RAF=Red Army Faction. I was trying to read that as Royal Air Force and wondering what the heck…

Haha yeah I also read RAF as Royal Air Force and was very confused.

This seems like a pretty interesting scenario.

Thanks for the comments, and yes RAF is the Red Army Faction. I also picked 1979 because it was the last year that the USSR legitimately seemed unchecked. To my mind, 1980 marks a real change in the relative postures of Soviet and Western countries… Thatcher and Reagan get elected and start to get tough on the Soviet Union, the Solidarity movement in Poland and the entanglement in Afghanistan show that Soviet power within and beyond the Warsaw Pact is crumbling away, the Soviet economy starts to really show the signs of slowdown that began in the late 70's. The West was really ascendent in the 1980's economically and politically, while the Soviets were falling apart and were unable to "keep up appearances" as they had in previous decades.

I appreciate all of these comments. I am thinking of turning this into a TW&T scenario for the Lardies winter 2017 special. I have converted a ton of Cold War tanks and equipment and researched troop organizations and tactics, but putting all of that together takes a lot of time (my Winter War guide and scenario in the last winter special took months of reading to get right). Does anyone still use TW&T or IABSM for Cold War? It may be of some interest, if I ever get around to finishing all the work.

Sound like a fun game.

Gotta love it. Reds charging the West of stealing from their playbook (no doubt on to low a scale).

lovin the idea of this ! great scenario !

perhaps … within the Int'l Communist movement at the time was the rivalry amongst national communist party leader as to who was the 'most ardent' communist . Leonid Brezhnev was leader of a stagnant Russia, Mao died in 1976 so China is in disarray as Deng Xiaoping reforms, Kim Il-sung is doing nothing with a broken country, Fidel Castro is exporting revolution to Africa in a peacemeal way, the soviet-sponsored Vietnamese and Chinese sponsored Khmer Rouge (Pol Pot) are fighting …
… this is Erich Honecker's personal moment to take leadership for Communist (Marxist/Leninist) immortality !