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"Seeing Gray in the Next World War" Topic


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605 hits since 22 Feb 2017
©1994-2017 Bill Armintrout
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Tango01 Supporting Member of TMP22 Feb 2017 4:24 p.m. PST

"Next to a strong country sits a weaker neighbor internally divided by a long-running political struggle. Many yearn for unification with the stronger country, with whom they share cultural ties. But many others are determined to maintain their country's independence. By overt and clandestine means, the stronger country skillfully shapes political events across the border. As the pro-independence party clings to power in this weaker country, their strong neighbor uses a variety of means from coercive diplomacy to influence operations and bribery to undermine democratic institutions. As the situation in the weaker country slips into violence, the stronger neighbor fabricates an official request for military assistance and announces it will send forces to "restore order" with the full consent of its weaker neighbor. Confusion reigns as a misinformation campaign, causing some to believe their head of government has resigned. Recognizing defeat is imminent, the head of the weaker country's government relinquishes power to a pro-unification politician. The country's military does not resist when forces enter from across the border. Soon thereafter, news outlets report that a popular referendum shows 99.7 percent favor unification, ratifying the fait acompli. No shots were fired.

At about the same time, far away, a nation of over 20 million people on the Mediterranean Sea is locked in a brutal civil war. Ideologically motivated volunteers travel from afar to join the fight. Major Western powers refuse to provide any direct military aid, but this only benefits the better-armed of the two factions, whose leader appeals to the larger country for support just as it is digesting its smaller neighbor. This leader receives aid in the form of weapons, military advice, and close air support. A long-time adversary of the larger country answers the pleas of the opposing faction, lending similar but less effective assistance. Fissures widen in the armed opposition and once allied groups begin to fight one another. They lose.

Along the larger country's shared border with a different weaker neighbor lives a sizeable population that shares the larger country's ethnicity. Members of this group genuinely live as second-class citizens. But the larger country's ministry of information raises tensions by spreading fake news about the minority group's mistreatment. This group then pushes for political autonomy and organizes pro-autonomy groups with mysterious external support. The leaders of this small country refuse to bow to minority demands, so the larger country threatens military intervention. However, when the smaller country mobilizes its military in anticipation, nothing happens. Recognizing the risk of a war into which they could be drawn, Western powers put pressure on the smaller country to allow their larger neighbor to simply annex those border regions where their ethnic group lives. Later, a different ethnic group on the opposite side of the country also demands autonomy and appeals to the larger country for support. Now under pressure from all sides, the smaller country agrees to come under the "protection" of its larger, demanding neighbor and is effectively annexed.
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Amicalement
Armand

darthfozzywig Supporting Member of TMP Inactive Member23 Feb 2017 11:12 a.m. PST

Really good read.

Legion 424 Feb 2017 8:22 a.m. PST

When you said Greys … I thought you meant Little Gray Aliens ! huh? If so, I hope they are on "our" side ! evil grin

Tango01 Supporting Member of TMP24 Feb 2017 1:18 p.m. PST

Glad you enjoyed it my friend!. (smile)

Legion… dude!


Amicalement
Armand

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