"Brexit, do we need to be pessimistic for the hobby?" Topic

Increased costs of raw material, tariffs, less customers from oversea. Is it the doom of the hobby smaller firms? :(

*to be pessimistic

YES! Maybe. Idk… I'm so depressed, everything will probably go up in flames. DOOM!

I've been taking advantage of the weaker British Pound.

Had to have a hollow laugh when I saw that the pound had "soared" today.

Yup, we're just 30 cents down on the pound to dollar exchange compared to six months ago – so much better than being 32 cents down.

But – I guess the industry is safe whilst our American friends can pick everything up for a bargain price. Please keep buying.

Guys, don't let the politics bleed over into the wargaming. And show a little backbone: Brits didn't seem as depressed when the whole continent was overrun and Spain, France or Germany was preparing to invade than they do now when the worst case is possible customs charges.

The hobby is not doomed. Smaller firms always come and go. (So do large firms. Would you like an old timer to make out a list?) By any normal economic theory, customs barriers, if you get them, benefit some businesses, penalize others and overall raise prices somewhat. A lower pound increases your export market while raising the price of foreign goods. If I'm right in my impression that Britain is a net exporter of hobby goods, this should actually be good for British firms, though British gamers will find visiting Historicon a bit more expensive.

Meantime, break out your copies of Featherstone, Grant and Young. This is not an inherently expensive hobby, and the people who scratchbuilt most of what they fought with seemed to be having more fun than most of us.

My guess is that it will be a boost to our little niche hobby. At least for us "Original Brexiters" ;). Although I would assume that many US hobby related firms will suffer a bit, (you Brits never really buy anything from us anyway).

I'm guessing coastal smugglers in small boats, and/or with minivans and cars will see a resurgence.

;-)

A plus for ultramodern gaming scenarios, and sure to be a jobs driver for building more coastal patrol craft, and hiring the personnel to man them.

The Euro is pretty close to parity and I've been taking full advantage of it especially with free shipping at a certain purchase level.

These things tend to even out over time. There are many instances when I had to bite the bullet on the exchange rate when it was the reverse trend at play. I both sell and buy and have experienced both the up and down trends. For now, we in the US get a bit of a break.

Morale is the key to tabletop battles- I often out psych my opponents….they often feel the they have lost the game.
Sometimes, when I blitzkieged my opponent, I need to build them up, otherwise they won't play against me again.
Cheer up Brian…..😜

Ive ordered twice from Britain in the same month,and Ive never done that.

Naturally if the pound is weaker there will be more orders from overseas, not less.

Perhaps Brexit and a new Trump administration could create an opportunity for better trade relations between the US and UK. And since a good percentage of the "cool" minis are produced in the UK and the US, if such a thing were to happen, maybe it would benefit Republican, Democrat, Independent, Labor and Tory miniature gamers. Wouldn't that be nice?

Kevin

I have no idea about how currency correlations will evolve in the long term. I know that I think twice before buying anything from the US since postal costs boosted. Maybe future customs policies may have the same effect when importing from UK.

Definitly maybe.

Depends. How it will go the actual exit? Will tax on exports/imports raise their ugly face once again? Customs plus shipping costs can eat away any savings that we in the Continent can get from the lower price of the British pound. We'll see. I am taking advantage of the lower British pound right now, just in case.

I have ordered more and from more sellers due to the current exchange rates.

I buy almost everything "wargaming" from the UK.

Will Brexit and "customs problems" mean that I must start looking at Germany, Spain, Italy, Poland, etc ?

"Customs problems" are the reason I avoid buying from the USA today!

No.

'Nuff said.

John T

Why do you think there will be less overseas customers? The manufacturers I know are inundated because of the weak pound…
Perhaps it is time to reopen British tin and lead mines?

We are already seeing clear indications that Brexit will be good for British trade overseas whereas the deficit caused in the EU budget by Britain withdrawing is going to cause real headaches for Brussels.

The EU is an isolationist trade block which encourages internal trade whilst its protectionist policies support French farmers and German industry and discourage trade outside the bloc. The UK is looking to trade world-wide with partners far more diverse than just EU members. It doesn't take a steel trap mind to work out which policy will lead to greater prosperity in the medium and long term.

The EU can talk as tough as it likes, and it will as it now has a vested interest in seeing Britain fail in order to stop other nations following their lead, but the desire of German manufacturers to trade with the UK is likely to trump political dogma when push comes to shove.

High postal costs stopped me ordering from the USA long before Brexit and my plunging Pound.

I'm guessing most of the raw materials used in the UK for manufacturing figures will be imported, so prices are going to go up before too long. That will at least reduce the benefits (to people outside the UK) of the depreciation, while leaving us in the UK with higher prices.

"It doesn't take a steel trap mind to work out which policy will lead to greater prosperity in the medium and long term."

No, it certainly doesn't.

Currencies fluctuate up and down, from time to time.

My guess is in the short-term, the UK may be adversely impacted a little by the change, but the medium and long range impact of this can only be positive, since Britain will no longer be saddled by onerous regulations and the costs of supporting other, non-performing, EU-nation economies.

As a manufacturer, yes it has been bad for us already, the price of metal has gone up by 50% since the vote, the uncertainty about customs union is bad for European trade as is the threat of duty hanging over Eu – UK trade. The Rhetoric from the President Elect about duty on none US made goods and tearing up any and all trade agreements also adds a level of worry and uncertainty that no business, large or small needs.

Theoretically, custom duties should be compensated by VAT discount. If manufacturers in UK will deduct this from prices they shouldn't grow. However I don't think that Brexit should affect wargaming.
Marco

It is so much cheaper ordering figures from the UK now. I love Brexit.

Except that for small companies, there is no VAT reclaimable.

More doom and gloom!!

We got enough of this bull from all sorts of "world" experts in their fields before and after the referendum and it, and they, were proved wrong.

NO, THE SKY IS NOT FALLING!!!!

You'll actually get more overseas trade from America, I am in the US and have made several large purchases due to the change in dollar / pound exchange rate.

From my own point of view, and having in mind that nearly 3 out of every 4 of my customers are from either US or UK… Well, I'm quite frightened, honestly

To answer the OP – no.

Tarleton, this is not 'doom and gloom' or 'experts', our business is worse off since the referendum, to the point that we had to raise prices so our customers are worse off as well. This is straight economic fact.

Yes we are getting more foreign orders due to the low pound, but raw materials cost more, and the value of the order is worth less as well so that means we are just about coming out even with them. This will get worse if the UK govt and the EU do not come to a trade deal.

Again plain economic facts, no spin, no experts, no hearsay.

Strange – I've had a big increase in sales since the vote – from Europe, the US, Australia and the Far East. And yes, metal costs have risen but it's only a relatively small part of the overrall cost of a figure.

I can't imagine why any worries about what may happen to duties and the customs union in the future should affect orders now and it certainly hasn't in my experience.

Doug

Like Doug I've had a big uplift in figure orders since the Vote and material costs haven't made me think about raising my prices…

Mike

Lluís

Exactly my thoughts, although from the point of view of the importer rather than the exporter as in your case.

Interesting times are coming, my friend.

Yes we are getting more foreign orders due to the low pound, but raw materials cost more, and the value of the order is worth less as well so that means we are just about coming out even with them.

Strange – I've had a big increase in sales since the vote – from Europe, the US, Australia and the Far East. And yes, metal costs have risen but it's only a relatively small part of the overrall cost of a figure.

Like Doug I've had a big uplift in figure orders since the Vote and material costs haven't made me think about raising my prices…

Worthy as personal experience is the truth is that you won't appreciate the effects, positive or negative, of the Brexit until it actually comes into effect. Right now the weakness of the pound against the dollar and the euro makes purchases interesting. As sales rise, production costs can be absorbed without any fuss. Problem is to know if that is a long-term trend or, on the contrary, a snowflake in Summer.

Now, how Brexit will actually be enacted? If custom taxes come into effect, the costs of exports will rise, necessarily. Bussinnesses that right now are operating from the UK as European distributors of goods produced in the US (China, actually, but you know what I mean), will face the decision if they want to stay there and rise prices, risking to lose a significant share of the European market, relocate to the Continent, or if they will even lose the distribution rights in behalf of other bussiness that is already located in the Continent. GW won't have an immediate problem. Underground Toys -European distributors of Funko Pop!, a highly popular collectable toy- will need to find an answer.

In the meantime, politicians will be negotiating and horse-dealing. It will be us, poor bloody consumers, who will pay the bill, in the end.

Nope, I am not feeling very optimistic.

I do love pushing miniature soldiers across battle tables, gosh I'm feeling depressed about what? Oh! the ability to buy 20% less stuff against what I could. How many of the "depressed' have mountains of stuff just sitting on their shelves etc. Yes its good for me where I am but I'm getting what I want not extra. Its a cycle and this is a balancing of scale, to me anyway. BTW when was the last time most of us scratch built something needed for their games – I'm building a couple of wagons for AZW right now.
So less of this pessimism malarkey more joy, and get on with it Gents.

@basileus66

But – Theresa Maybe has told us how it's going to be. And it'll be great..so great…and beautiful.

The proposal can be summed up in this analogy.

The UK will stop being a TMP subscribing member and will become a basic member. By doing this it will get more TMP functionality than subscribing members do. This is reasonable and no-one (particularly subscribing members) should argue with it.

Can't see any problem there – job done.

I'm reminded of Brian Aldiss's great wartime trilogy of novels. In Book 1 set pre WW2 Aldiss's schoolboy hero reports " The Head says the Germans tanks are made of cardboard".

20thMaine, that would be true if TMP subscriptions were £55.00 GBP million a day and it took Bill 7 years to sign a trade deal with Canada (still waiting for the deal with the US).

Oh yes, and Bill would be entitled to make thinly veiled threats whenever we voiced any objections!

Thankfully TMP is not the EU…

The analogy is accurate.

UK wants to leave the club and wants a much better deal when it has done so.

And that's such a sensible and reasonable idea that I'm sure that's just what will happen.

Out foreign secretary today calling the EU nazis will surely have helped. It's such a grown-up and sensible thing to do.

Plain sailing ahead.

Out foreign secretary today calling the EU nazis will surely have helped

Ineresting. Can you point me somewhere where I can read that? I heard him making a silly joke about WW2 escape movies but I didn't see the bit about calling anyone Nazis. Anyone offended by the movie quote would have to be very thin-skinned (lots of them around, certainly).

DBDD

This is what he said according to the Times.

"In an extraordinary outburst at a foreign policy conference in Delhi, the UK's chief diplomat said: "If [François] Hollande wants to administer punishment beatings to anybody who seeks to escape [the EU], in the manner of some world war two movie, I don't think that is the way forward. It's not in the interests of our friends and partners," he said."

If I recall right the people dishing out beatings in most WW2 movies were NAZIS which I guess is what he meant. Probably will cost down the line.

It's implicit in the analogy – if the UK shouldn't be beaten as if they were in a WWII movie it is implicit that those doing the beating would be – in the same movie – represented by the forces of the Third Reich.

Whatever I may think of Johnson, I do credit him with enough intellect to understand what he was saying in making that analogy.

The Foreign Secretary responded: "If Monsieur Hollande wants to administer punishment beatings to anyone who chooses to escape, rather in the manner of some World War Two movie, then I don't think that's the way forward."

link

It could be the end of many continental shows like Crisis, Tactica, etc … Many UK traders will not be willing to go through the various hoops and added costs to take their products over the Channel.

And I suspect that added costs and tariffs will serious affect my purchases.

Another current issue is the uncertainty, we as a company plan for new items from 3 months to 2 or 3 years ahead, planning while all these issues are up in the air, and might just invalidate their value at market by the time they are ready does not help.

55million a day, please cite the source for that figure, and remember the Brexit campaigners has all disowned that figure as untrue and a blatant lie used solely to garner votes.

So far as I can see it looks like the UK will be using World Trade Organisation terms and conditions. I guess Manufacturers should bring themselves up to speed with what that might mean for them.

Back to the OP I would hope that the grey demographic of the hobby is sufficently financially comfortable and time rich to keep the Manufacturers in business. That said how much new stuff do we want at this stage in the game?

So glad we voted to leave the EU for so many different reasons – as far as business goes I've had a surge of overseas orders and that's great!