"NATO-minus-the-US v. Russia in 2018- who wins?" Topic

I'm not a moderns wargamer but I am curious what you guys are up to right now.
Is anyone playing out a potential ground war between NATO-sans-US, with Germany as the main Western force, versus the Russian military in Eastern Europe, say to take place in 2018 or round about? I was in the military myself, involved in planning and some real wars too. Just ducking over here from the Napoleonics board :)
cheers!

Might be Poland as the first big adversary of Russia.

I was thinking of Poland as a potential battlefield, actually. Say after the invasion of the Baltic states. I'm not sure, but I'd imagine they might have to take on Belorussia as well.

What's the scenario?

Russia's not strong enough to take over Europe, but they could easily snatch, grab, and hold the little Baltic states.

Professional military wargamers say it would be over in 48 – 72 hours, which is before the EU/NATO can really mobilize much of a response.

Putin would then threaten Europe with nukes, if they try to rescue/free them, much like he's done with Crimea.

My guess is no one will chance checking to see if he is bluffing.

Depends on the price of oil at the time.

If the US somehow stays of out it (say, because the POTUS doesn't understand that you need to honor treaty agreements or your government bonds become worthless), my personal guess is that the Baltics get a "Ukraine Surprise". Unlikely that the rest of NATO would be able to commit a response, as the Poles would need to be holding the line at the border, and they're the second biggest military in NATO behind the Turks.

Nope, not playing Germans vs Russians now. Did just play N Africa 1940, though.

Who wins if Russia gets agressive? No one. Everyone is annihilated. Cockroaches will get an advancement, however.

Mako:

Putin would then threaten Europe with nukes, if they try to rescue/free them, much like he's done with Crimea.

I somehow missed the Russian nuclear threats over Crimea. When did this happen?

Can you guys take this to the Ultramodern board please.

He's made numerous threats in the last year or so, which have been covered in the news, and supposedly, has moved mobile nuke missile launchers into the country as well.

He regularly threatens various EU countries with annihilation, from time to time. Not sure if that is just on general principles to stay in the news, like the Kardashians do, or if he's on a vodka induced bender.

Perhaps Bill can move this to the Ultramodern board.

See here for various headlines with Putin, Crimea, the EU/NATO, Denmark, Sweden, and nukes:

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It starts with a "provocation", an incident or series of incidents where the Russian minority in the Baltic states is suddenly under dire threat.

Europe sends observers to check the situation, but in a matter of days or even hours the situation escalates. Ethnic Russians occupy government buildings and hold hostages and threaten to kill them if they don't get major concessions, like the Baltic states giving up a quarter of their territory to form a "Russian" state.

Of course the demands are unacceptable and a bunch of kids are prodded into throwing stones at the security forces. RT happens to be in the area, suddenly shots ring out, in the confusion kids get killed. Russia moves in as they have troops very conveniently nearby on manoeuvres.

Of course the Baltic state troops shoot back, but in a matter of hours the Russian troops overwhelm the Baltic militaries and occupy key areas, we get a flood of reports that Russians were ambushed and provoked while RT shows the bodies of young patriotic Russian solders murdered by evil Baltics …

Europe wags the finger.

Meanwhile Russian planes from the Kaliningrad region hold daily incursions over Polish airspace growing bolder by the day, until one is shot down. Russians strike back and destroy a Polish ground radar and missile installation.

Poland makes an ultimatum. Russia claims it is merely defending itself.

NATO sends jets to Poland and patrol over the Baltic States, demand an immediate cease-fire and demand that the Russian army pulls out.

Right then North Korea throws another tantrum and threatens to flatten Seoul. Beijing plays all sides cozying up to Russia and give NATO the direst of warnings about "continued aggression towards Russia"

Russians keep sending jets over Poland and threaten to shoot down NATO planes patrolling near the Baltics.

A French frigate moves into the Baltic Sea and somewhere between Sweden and Poland it hits a mine and sinks. France complains, Russia replies it was probably a Polish mine and show footage of one of their own minesweepers pulling mines out of what is claimed to be Russian territorial waters.

TU-95 bombers enter UK airspace. UK jets scramble to intercept, but the Russians do not deviate and seem to be holding course towards the South of England. London calls Moscow and Russia replies that their bombers are currently in international airspace and that any attack will be seen as an act of war.

UK prime minister allows UK jets to fire warning shots. One TU 95 fires back with their tail turret.

Who blinks first …

A believable scenario, PatrickR---chilling…

Like reading the neswpaper. Very plausible stuff

PatrickR for the win.

(well not really a 'win', but…)

If it came to an actual shooting war; well no one wins.

Look at the city of Aleppo. It's been destroyed. Both sides lost.

The Ukrainians would lose either way…..the Neo-Sovs march westward…..the Eurofeds march eastwards or at least hold onto Poland…….

Don't we have enough REAL problems to worry about?

Patrick-R: [Clap clap clap!]

Ladies and gentlemen, mutants, may I present to you Historicon 2017's referee for the Ultra Modern kriegspiel, to be held in the heat seared bomb crater where the Fredericksburg Convention Center once stood.

China.

US Army currently prepositioning armor and equipment in Germany:

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