"Historicon 2018 article on www.wargamer.com" Topic

I attended the 2006 & 2008 Historicons (flew in on Wed, left Sunday afternoon) at the Host and found the con extremely crowded. But I went for the games and the dealer hall. I found the Host to be a dump, but I was stayed somewhere else. I can deal with the heat/stink, but shouldn't have to.

I've also attended the cons in Valley Forge and FFC and enjoyed both much more than the cons at the Host. Unfortunately, I also noticed a slow but steady decrease in the number of vendors going to the cons. I've heard various reason from increased table fees, smaller booths, changing dates, lower attendance/profit.

For me, the decrease in dealer attendance is the biggest issue that needs to be resolved no matter the location. There's no reason to take a week and fly to Historicon if there aren't very many vendors to buy from. My time/money would be better spent at the regional cons with good vendor attendance. After all, I can only play in so many games over the weekend.

So what's the plan to bring the vendors back to Historicon?

grtbrt:

The BoD did do some analysis of attendance some years back, who came to all three, etc. I am sure that needs updating.

jdpintex:

I think the changing dealer economics are working against HMGS. grtbrt also laid out some reasons why dealers may not go to all the cons, or even any particular one. The dealer list I mentioned (waiting to get into Hcon) has long evaporated, as have many of the dealers. I'm not sure what HMGS could do to attract more either. Many view it as more profitable to stay home instead of travel to the shows.

I was a vendor when the cons were in Lanham and New Carrolton. I became a member of the staff as the cons moved from Harrisburg to the Host. I lived on Eastern Long Island and the trip to Lancaster took me 6 to 8 hours due to distance and traffic. When I moved to Florida I still went to the cons at the Host. I usually took the Auto train and drove from Lorton Va. When I drove the whole distance I found the traffic lighter up to the D.C. area than the Northeast. Gamers from the northeast have complained about D.C. traffic on their way to Virginia. Southerners now have the same problem. Its worse now because some of us could bypass D.C. by driving west then north to Lancaster. It would be dumb to do that now, and a straight ride up 95 is the only way to without driving west then east. Colonel Gray did a good job with his summary. I remember a conversation we had about the move to Baltimore. We agreed on that issue. I don't think N.J. is the answer for everyone. I don't intend to go, but spend my time supporting southern cons.Travel has become expensive as gas prices have increased along with hotel rates. I do agree with others that it is time for the northerners who didn't go to Virginia and complained about it to put up or shut up. The Board listened and you have your venue. Now go and support it.

Nick, I'm not sure the board listened to anything other than the attendance figures – both for dealers and gamers.

That said, there is nothing stopping anyone from building a better mouse trap, if they are so inclined.

>gas prices have increased

They have ?

link

Factoring in inflation, gas prices are relatively low. But hey, why let facts get in the way of a good excuse. :-)

Gas prices are on the rise! Most aren't going to notice till it's back up to $3.00 USD a gallon again!

Don, IIRC Pete tried to have you removed from the board, I am sure there was no correlation. Poor Pete, he so vilified that he never leaves his house.

Al – gas prices have risen dramatically since the early 80's when I started to go to conventions. It wasn't a concern then. It is now. And prices are going up now, with an estimate of $3.00 USD a gallon in the near future. OPEC and non member countries are cutting production. By the time Cold Wars and Historicon take place gas could be expensive again. This is to protect futures investors. And prices fluctuate in every region. 87 octane has risen from $1.98 USD in the Tampa region to $2.30 USD in a couple of weeks and is predicted to continue rising. Reports are this is not just about holiday increases. As oil increases all prices will increase.

AAA average national gas price today is $2.31 USD up from yesterday for the lowest grade. I use middle grade which is about $2.57 USD. sometimes high test. Prices are the second highest in the country in the North east, about $2.48 USD. As prices increase, it will have an affect on cons. Anyone who thought gas would stay around 2 bucks is dreaming.

A caveat when discussing gasoline prices: keep in mind that regional pricing fluctuations occur due to EPA mandated seasonal changes to gasoline blend (I believe that there are now 13 discreetly different blends based upon region/season). These blends are often the cause of regional pricing differences.

87 octane unleaded was being advertised in Greenville SC last week @ 1.88/gal.

B

Let's say you drive 1000 miles round trip, which based on the amount of bitching on this board about driving distance is on the high side. A $1 USD increase in the price of gas, assuming a car with 25 MPG, results in an additional cost of $40 USD for the con. Are there *that* many people for whom an added $40 USD pushed them over the edge into not attending a con ? The debate about attendance is more about recent years, not dredging up the early 80s. Gas prices over the last ten years , when adjusted for inflation, are flat or most recently, dropping.

Gas really guys? Well I live in New jersey and I payed 218 yesterday.

Don't forget gas prices are also regionally different thanks to taxes. PA's gas tax makes it much more expensive per gallon than NJ or VA.

I don't think gas is a deciding factor, but a contributing one. I think a lot of people concerned about distance simply don't want to eat up that much time driving. It doesn't matter to me where the conventions are as I live in Kansas and I have to fly everywhere.

I do agree with others that it is time for the northerners who didn't go to Virginia and complained about it to put up or shut up. The Board listened and you have your venue. Now go and support it.

OK Nick.. Answer me this – what would you listen to? A few voices on the internet complaining about a convention move or the loss in revenue of over 15k? AND the attendance continues to drop?

So another part of the question is this…. Historicon was moved further south and it didn't thrive there. The loss of attendees outweighed the new people that came. Instead of making this a North\ South thing (which it really isn't), I'd rather keep this to the facts. So why so snarky?

TheKing30 wrote:

When Pete Panzari and the BoD were pressed for facts on the Baltimore move, the whole BoD fell flat on their faces. When asked how many people they expected to loose, they had no numbers. Nobody did their homework.
Not true. One member did. He also expressed his many concerns about the venue gained from personal experience and voted "NO" to the move.

DM

Sorry Don. When I attended the Membership meeting, you weren't there. It was the Panzari "yes" crew.

@historygamer…

"When asked how many people they expected to loose, they had no numbers. Nobody did their homework."

King30, in general agreement with your positions, except this one – How on earth could anyone predict attendance? It might go up, it might go down, it might stay the same. Any time the BoD moves a con it is an unknown.

I have a tremendous amount of respect for you – so keep that in mind when reading my answer. The answer is…. poll the membership. Analytics. None of this was done. If they're not sure, ask someone who is more familiar with this.

Don is right. He did vote against the move, and was one of the few. My own behind the scenes urging was that if they wanted to move a con to the BCC, start with FI instead of Hcon.

I heard about this. The way Don was treated was flat out disgusting. I still get angry when I think about it.

That said, few seem to remember here that during the last two years of Hcon at the Host, dealers were being stuffed into closets. Some dealers were downstairs in the pro shop building. There was a long list of dealers waiting to get into the con. The whole place was at max capacity, and this with the con having one of the best management teams ever. Ever square inch of the Host was used.

Agreed about the dealer area – however, when they began with the talk of the BCC, some of the dealers weren't happy. The general answer was – Too bad, we have other dealers lined up to replace you. Pride comes before a fall…

The general answer was – Too bad, we have other dealers lined up to replace you. Pride comes before a fall…

And now they have hobby university people in the Dealer's Hall teaching classes to take up space and make it look less empty.

And now they have hobby university people in the Dealer's Hall teaching classes to take up space and make it look less empty.

Which really isn't a bad thing. I'd like to see them take Hobby University to the next level and make it something really special. Get Badger in there do demo their airbrushes, compressors and paints. Things like that. Right now it almost feels like an after thought.

@ dapeters

Don, IIRC Pete tried to have you removed from the board, I am sure there was no correlation.

I think that may have been Fred Haub.

@TheKing30

Sorry Don. When I attended the Membership meeting, you weren't there. It was the Panzari "yes" crew.

No worries.

TheKing30:

For some reason I want to say they did poll the membership, or something like that. I know they ran a number of meetings to talk about the impending move, but I am not sure they were well attended.

Do you poll the membership, or the people who attend Hcon? One could be subset of the other, but probably not all would be covered by just the membership. The membership fluctuates with the locations of the cons too.

I do seem to recall James Mattes did conduct a poll way back when. I can't say I remember all the results, other than most visited the dealer area (big surprise).

The problem though with polling the membership is it really doesn't expand the list of possible facilities out there, nor ones HMGS can afford. IIRC, there was a weird vibe going on at the end with HMGS management – or so some said. It was something about they really didn't want us there in July as they felt they could get more by filling the rooms with the summer tourists. I can't say for certain, as that was all second hand.

In regards to the dealers, that can be hard crowd to please too. I heard some were not happy about the impending move to NJ. At least some of the dealers were making pretty good coin at the FCC, which just goes to show you sometimes the interests of HMGS and the dealers aren't always in alignment.

Sorry, that should read the Host management, not HMGS management. Though there was that for some. LOL

Pete had sent out a survey to "explore" possibilities and promising that no decision had been made.

As for dealers some posted here that they were not making money but the telling point was in the vender area.

With the con being in the great New York area, hopefully the day trippers will greatly increase traffic which should be good for the dealers

My only comment here…. I am jealous…. that the shows are not in my backyard.

I listen to folks cry and whine and complain about how far they have to drive…. I have some very explicit words for those folks that I cannot express here as a rep of HMGS…. all I can say is boo… freaking… hoo….

I drive further to ALL shows and you guys want to whine about a few hours in traffic…?????

I laugh at the whole north/south thing…. it really isn't about that… it is about power plays by certain groups to move the shows to their neck of the woods and not always about what's best for the organization….. grow up.

Dan, so isn't that what Panzeri was doing? Moving it to his neck of the woods and so it really wasn't best for the organization.

IIRC, Pete lived in Indiana at the time as he was working with National Guard units out that way to get them ready for mobilization. Prior to that I think he lived in NJ.

For some reason I want to say they did poll the membership, or something like that. I know they ran a number of meetings to talk about the impending move, but I am not sure they were well attended.

I was at one membership meeting when they discussed the move to BCC. After asking series of questions, it became embarrassing for them. I felt bad. I spoke with Pete afterwards and explained that I thought this was a big mistake and I can't stand behind it. As for FCC, were were initially told it wouldn't be moved further south than DC. That didn't happen.

Do you poll the membership, or the people who attend Hcon? One could be subset of the other, but probably not all would be covered by just the membership. The membership fluctuates with the locations of the cons too.

Good question. I'd start with current attendees. That would allow you to see potentially how many customers you're losing. If you don't think you can pick up at least as many as you lost, you better be able to enact a rollback plan pretty fast.

I do seem to recall James Mattes did conduct a poll way back when. I can't say I remember all the results, other than most visited the dealer area (big surprise).

Yep. Wanna know where he got his demographics?? From TMP!

historygamer, I was told that he lived in the Baltimore area around that time. This was told to me by more than one person. Maybe someone else can confirm that.

To my knowledge, Pete never lived in MD. I worked for the BoD at the time. I know Pete lived in NJ as he was posted to Fort Monmouth. At some point he was posted out to Indiana to work with NG units out there. Either they got confused with another BoD member at the time (Dan M?) or they were just wrong.

Yes King, I advised against the move too. I think they (a majority of the then BoD) were impressed with the BCC facility. It was very nice. It just didn't meet all our needs – though it did meet some. No need to beat this dead horse though, what happened has been well covered.

We all know there is a limited number of facilities that meet HMGS needs and price range. I have no idea if the facility in NJ will help, hurt or muddle along. I have no idea if I'll attend. That's a long way from right now. :-)

I know. Who knows?? Maybe I'll hit the lottery and start the biggest convention of all time – KINGCON. Hahahaha

Now I'd attend that. :-)

I know. Who knows?? Maybe I'll hit the lottery and start the biggest convention of all time – KINGCON. Hahahaha

It's not even that much of a long-shot. Decide what you'd like to have and do it. Start small. The first one is the most challenging. After that it kind of runs itself if you've put any kind of halfway decent plan in place. Just do it, King !!!

Best, Don :)

Excellent advice Don. Maybe some day when I find a less stressful job (which is on the top of my 2017 list)…

I'll be there.

I plan to give NJ a try. It'll be further than Lancaster, but still less than a full day drive, so distance alone is likely not a showstopper for me. What I'm really curious about though, is has anyone actually analyzed where we all live as part of deciding where a central location really is? A membership dump of zipcodes fed into any GIS system is all that's needed to map out member density in pretty good detail. Just curious.

Ken Nielsen said:
"What I'm really curious about though, is has anyone actually analyzed where we all live as part of deciding where a central location really is? A membership dump of zipcodes fed into any GIS system is all that's needed to map out member density in pretty good detail"

ISTR that such a study had/has been made, and mentioned here on TMP.
Ideally, such a study should be made of the _attendees_ of each convention, to illustrate what lengths, literally, gamers will go to attend a particular event. Not being privy to BOD practices, I might also ask what sort of aftermath data are collected and analyzed post-event?
Oh, and Kleenex to HMGSNORTH--for his reticle.

Yes, I can confirm that, because I did one of the analysis for the board using a Zip Code count and location of the membership list using Microsoft MapPoint. Quite honestly, the results didn't surprise me at all. Most folks lived . . . in the Northeast. And demographically what is the most densely part of the US . . . the Northeast.

To me, at least, it was kinda a Captain Obvious finding.

Regards, Colonel Bill
ageofeagles.com

Folks can also look on the HMGS ym site for Members. Specifically,
in the Member File Share Forum, there are several pages of membership demographics prepared by Kevin Kelley. I believe this info is based on 2011 (or thereabouts) membership numbers.

Considering membership has dropped pretty well from it's high point back in 1999 – 2000 timeframe a better indicator would be a complete analysis of the "Attendee" demographics over the last few years. Considering that just about everyone who attends any one, or all three conventions has their demographic info collected in the computer system when they register. Then there are those attendees who belong to other Chapters who are not listed in the main HMGS Membership list. At least that type of analysis would provide a more complete picture. Unless a complete picture is not what you're looking for!

<salutes Captain Obvious for his work>