"Explain likely outcome of a Nazi v Soviet tank battle?" Topic

I am interested to know, in wargaming terms, what the likely outcome would be of a confrontation between Nazi Germans and Soviets fielding the following AFVs, (numbers of in brackets);

Pz VI Tiger heavy tank (1)
Pz VI H Tiger heavy tank (2)
Pz.IV Ausf G medium tank (6)
Pz V Ausf Panther medium tank (2)

T-34/85 medium tank (41)
T34 mod. 42 medium tank (25)

How do the respective machines compare against their opposite numbers? Are numbers likely to compensate for lack of quality? Do the Soviet machines lack quality?

In the scenario I envisage, the battle will not be a direct confrontation between these forces. The Nazis will be defending with adequate (maybe?) numbers of SPG, artillery, and infantry, whilst the Soviets will advance along three pinchpoint avenues of attack. The Soviets will have SPG support, infantry, and limited air attack capability.

Thanks in advance.

I should think the Soviets would have a 59.4% chance of victory.

Is the Soviet unit green, or is it a veteran unit, possibly of guard status. Is the German unit a beat up remnant or a rested veteran unit? That has more to do with the outcome than vehicle statistics.

Defending a choke point would give the Germans a chance but I'd also want to know what AT guns they had – they were the real killers.

If the Soviets attack on narrow choke points, the're numbers will not be able to overwhelm the Germans. If they advance on a broad front, all those guns will eventually do damage.

Ah, the scenario is set in Hungary, May 1945.

Your superior knowledge is required here. I imagine both sides are veteran, Nazis not rested, no mention of Guards units but Soviet Assault infantry are fielded along with general infantry units.

Does that help?

Furthermore, the entire Soviet and Nazi forces are;

Il 2m3 Gap (8)
T-34/85 medium tank (41)
T34 mod. 42 medium tank (25)
late 1944 USSR assault squad (15)
late 1944 USSR infantry squad (39)
SU-76 at SPG (13)
D-1 152mm heavy howitzer (4)

Pz vi Tiger heavy tank (1)
Pz vi h Tiger heavy tank (2)
Pz.iv ausf g medium tank (2)
AT spg Marder III Ausf M (1)
StuG G III Ausf F Medium SPG (4)
Hetzer light at spg (1)
K39 150mm heavy gun (3)
Sbrwr 42 120mm heavy mortar (4)
PaK 40 75mm Heavy AT Gun (12)
7.62cm PaK 36 l/15.5 cannon (4)
FlaK 18 88mm Heavy AT Gun (6)
Flak 38 150mm heavy at gun (1)
Flak 30 20mm light aa gun (8)
Kubelwagen automobile (1)
BMW r75 motor cycle (sidecar) (3)
Sdkfg 251 Hanomag apc (1)
Late 1944 German AT squad (12)
Late 1944 German infantry squad (21)
Slit trench (4) +3
Watch tower (4)
Concrete pillbox (4)
Warehouse (1)
Sdkfg 8 heavy hauler (2)
Opel-blitz engineering truck (3)

Reserves:
Pz v ausf Panther medium tank (2)
Heavy at spg Nashorn (1)
Sdkfg 251 Hanomag apc (1) containing
• Late 1944 German infantry squad (2)
Late 1944 German infantry squad (3)

Re-inforcements, 8 choices from:
Pz iv ausf g medium tank (4)
Opel-blitz trucks (3) containing
• Late 1944 German infantry squad (5)
• Sgrrwr 42 120mm heavy mortar
• MG42 7.92cm MG
Opel-blitz truck (4) with
• Pak 40 75mm heavy at gun (4)
Bf 109 G fighter (2)
Opel-blitz truck (2) with
• Le fh 105mm light howitzer (2)
Sdkfg 8 heavy hauler (2) with
• Flak 18 88mm heavy AA gun (2)
At spg Marder iii ausf m (3)

What is a Pz VI H?

Did you mean a Pz IV Ausf. H?

Or did you mean a Pz VI Ausf E (which was originally designated Ausf. H, but later re-designated to E for production)?

And if "Pz VI H Tiger" means a Tiger Ausf. E, what does "Pz VI Tiger" mean?

Kind of hard to figure out what you are talking about.

Also, when you say "adequate numbers of SPGs" what are we discussing here? 10 StuGs? That would be an appropriate number given how any Pz IVs you have, but that changes the balance significantly, as StuGs generally had a notably higher kill rate than Pz IVs or Panthers.

The terrain also needs some clarification. How long are the fields of fire? You mention that the Soviets are advancing through "pinchpoints". How many tanks can be deployed in each echelon of the attack? How many pinchpoints do the Germans need to defend at once? Are they within supporting ranges of each other?

Then, as vtsaogames suggests, we'd need to know the quality of troops on both sides. He asks in terms of "unit" quality, but the question really applies both to tank crew quality and equally importantly unit command quality. They have different effects on the outcome.

Depending on the answers to those questions I expect that the results, using any reasonable gaming system, will range between:

1) Complete failure of the Soviet attack, with high casualties, for almost no losses to the Germans. And …

2) Complete route of the German defense, with few if any survivors escaping, for a modest cost in losses to the Soviets.

So there's your range of results. Define the scenario better, and you might get a tighter range of results.

-Mark
(aka: Mk 1)

What Mark said.

You could always get Battlefront's Combat Mission Red Thunder and game it out. You'll have a better idea of realistic outcomes than any miniature rule set, IMHO.

Ah, I see I did not type fast enough, and many of my questions were answered before I posted. :-/

Still don't know what a Tiger H is (versus just a Tiger), but in any case …

Given the preponderance of AT guns, I'd say the result is heavily dependent on the terrain.

If there is a single choke point with long range fields of fire, or multiple choke points in sequence, and given that the Russians only have about 1/10th of the artillery they would normally deploy per kilometer of front by that time, the Russians get pasted. Bother with the German tanks, the 20+ AT guns, artillery and entrenched infantry will do the job.

If the Germans have to defend 5 choke points at once, and these are not within mutually supporting ranges of each other, the Germans lose. 10 or 15 T-34s with some infantry aggressively probe 3 or 4 of the 5 choke points. The weakest defense (which probably has 3 or 4 AT guns and 2 or 3 AFVs) then gets hit by artillery and faces 41 T-34-85s. It's all over within 10 minutes, and then SU-76s and infantry flood in to consolidate the breakthrough point and defend against the inevitably German armored counter-attack, while the remaining T-34s swan about gobbling up German artillery batteries and HQs and the Shturmovics play tic-tac-toe 3-in-a-row on the re-inforcements as they advance towards the combat area, and on the retreating infantry and AT guns (from the other 4 choke-points, who are all now focused on not being encircled).

-Mark
(aka: Mk 1)

I'm hoping this is an historical scenario, given the weird mix of forces …

Important question is what rules you're using.

Do the Germans have hills to defend on? How long are their sight lines? The German guns of all types seriously out-range the 76mm-armed T-34s.

How smart are your German players and how much setup time do they get? Reverse slope/behind LOS block positions for the infantry will be very useful.

Do the rules allow attackers to swamp defenders with sheer numbers because each defender can only use opportunity fire once per turn? It's worse if movement distances are long compared to weapon ranges.

Doesn't the 'H' indicate the initial design contract was awarded to Henschel? For a Tiger II.

The information is as given. You will have a better idea of how it should be described if the above does not make sense.

The attack is over a rail and a road bridge, two abreast, and around the base of a left hand hill right into a prepared infantry position with a pillbox and PAK 40 75mm heavy AT gun. The three defence positions are not within supporting distance of each other but they are in range of the three K39 150mm heavy guns.

SPG Marder III Ausf M (3)
Heavy AT Nashorn (1)
Stug G III Ausf F medium SPG (4)
Hetzer light AT SPG (1)

I hope you can assist me.

Final query would be – do the Russians have ground attack planes in lieu of the artillery missing ? I'd have expected a Russian force of this size at this date to have some SP artillery and a dozen or more field guns.

Assuming that this group have outrun their artillery support (possibly holding open the gap the group have burst through) they would usually have some air units available.

Soviets have available eight sorties of a pair of IL 2M3 Gap aircraft.

OK now this is getting interesting. A tactical problem to be solved, on both sides!

But first:

Doesn't the 'H' indicate the initial design contract was awarded to Henschel? For a Tiger II.

OK, now we know what you meant. Generally the Tiger II is called the Tiger II, although the official designation was Pz Tiger Ausf. B (Panzerkampfwagon Tiger Ausführung B). It was also called Königstiger informally by the Germans. This is thought to be best translated as Bengal Tiger, but can also be translated as Royal Tiger (preferred by Brits) or King Tiger (preferred by Americans).

Yes, the design chosen for production was the Henschel design, but the Tiger (the original Pz VI Ausf. E) was also a Henschel design, so distinguishing between the Tiger and the Tiger II can not be done just by the manufacturer. Sometimes an (h) is used to distinguish the turret design, as the first Tiger IIs to see combat had a Porsche turret (so often called Tiger II (p)).

Now back to the tactical question at hand.

Three choke points, with no direct-fire mutual support between them.

Not entirely clear from the description, but it sounds like it might be two initial choke points (two bridges) and then, behind that, a third choke point (around the mountain). If so, I give the advantage to the Germans. This is effectively only two, or even better yet one choke point. While I understand how the Germans may want to hold all three, their "must hold" is either the bridges or the base of the hill. They don't need to hold all three, just two or one of the three.

You then describe the German force as dug-in infantry, a bunker with one 75mm Pak, as well as:
SPG Marder III Ausf M (3)
Heavy AT Nashorn (1)
Stug G III Ausf F medium SPG (4)
Hetzer light AT SPG (1)

So even giving the terrain advantage to the Germans, this is not nearly enough to stop the Russian force that was described. So if this is all there is, the Russians roll over them pretty quickly, unless the choke point is so narrow that only 2 or 3 tanks at a time can fit through.

But if the rest of the German force is at the bridges, and this is their second echelon of defense, I give the advantage to the Germans. Crossing bridges is a hard and nasty business. More often then not, when the defense is deployed and alert the preferred tactical question is not "how do I overwhelm the defenses and get across the bridge?", but is instead "where else can I cross, to get past these s defending this bridge?"

-Mark
(aka: Mk 1)

They're not "Gaps." That's the post-war NATO reporting name. They're still Sturmoviks.

Surprised no one has brought up either weather or time of day. Mark touched on fields of fire from a terrain aspect but how about from a weather aspect. Clear? Foggy? Raining? Ground conditions? Early morning (sun may be in defenders eyes) or late afternoon (reverses the situation)?

Adverse weather could work to the attackers advantage putting them on the defenses before they can react and negating long fields of fire or may bog down an attack leaving units exposed to fire for a longer period of time as just two examples.

Without a map, who can say?

More questions -

What are the levels of troop quality and morale on either side?

Is there any cover/concealment favoring the German position?

Are the German defenders dug in? If so, how well: hasty or well prepared? Camouflaged? How well?

How much intel do the Russians have about the German position?

How much intel do the Germans have on the Russians?

Does either side have any indirect artillery support? If so, how much?

Do the Russians have any lateral communications to shift reserves and reinforcement from one choke-point to another?

Ditto for the German.

B

Throw in:
-Has Hitler given a stand and fight to the last man order.

-Are the Russians being pushed to advance quickly with the NKVD behind them doing the pushing.

The key question that will determine the outcome is how much vodka is available for the attacking Russian infantry .

Wolfhag

Wolfie – I used to (half) joke with my US Army friends about a NATO defense of Europe including the parking on hundreds of unlocked truckloads of vodka on the main Soviet axes of advance.

B

It all depends on the dice rolls, of course. :-)

Blutarski,
If I were in charge of NATO and the Russians came across the Fulda Gap I would have had a massive drop of "Immigration Chits" as opposed to surrender chits. On one side it would tell them to claim political asylum and come to the nearest US consulate for a free plane ride to the US and get a Green Card. On the other side would be a color picture of a Russian soldier wearing Levi blue jeans on the beach with a topless buxom blonde serving him a giant hamburger and brewski.

To get back on topic. This scenario looks like it would need the QJM or similar equation.

Wolfhag

It is hard to say. A lot would depend on your rules fire per movement scale. How much fire can your tanks put out per movement of the attackers. If the Nazi Germans can fire only once while the Bolshevik Russians close to dangerous distance then the Bolshevik Russians would win. If not then the Nazi Germans would win.

Isn't the answer to this question the whole reason we game?

Paint them up, lay out the terrain, slap them on the table and see what happens!

+1ScoutJock

I wish I could provide a map. Soviets attack from south across river using two bridges. A third force is already across river on the river edge attacking from west, around a hill to their left- hand side. A fourth force will be brought into play for Soviets if the rail bridge assault succeeds on southern side, right hand side. Road bridge is centrally placed on map.

Weather is fine, daylight, May time in Central Europe (Hungary).

No information available on Hitler's orders. Do you know what they were in May 1945 in Hungary?

At each entry point is a bunker and slit trench. Slit trenches surround the heavy Nazi guns, which are placed on an elevated position in the central area of map.

Intelligence on both side not given, although Nazis cannot see Soviet gun position but general area is located. .

Rules – to be decided, although it does appear Soviets can get up close and personal if they are not mullered beforehand. So maybe the NKVD is doing its thing!

Ah, the dice …!

might be a pretty fair fight. Don't know how interesting it will be with the choke points.

its 79 to 29 2.71 to 1 russian tank spg vs german tank spg and at guns

i have not included german AT infantry stands

54/21 infantry 2.571 to 1

Assuming this is the remnants of a 1945 SS/panzer the german troops should be elite! especially the panzer crews!
If i recall correctly there was a battle with 9 tigers and 2 stugs that decimated a t 34 battalion with 60+ t34s. I think the germans lost 2 tanks.

Thanks Simo, appreciate your input.

Thanks guys for your responses so far.

Thi8s is entirely terrain dependant. If you ignore the T34 Mod tanks and look at the 11 Germans vs 41 T34/85 and make the crude and inaccurate assumption they are roughly equal power on balance. This then is a simple square law analysis 41^2/11^2= 13.9. Threfore ignoring the 25 tanks you get a Massive advantage of combat power, nearly 14 toi oen.to the Russians. The tigers are not going to sqing the balance that much easily. If whether in different places or in the same place if all russian tanks can fight the effect is a wipe out. To even it up there would need to be massive engineering/natural defences that kept the Russians at bay for many German AT rounds outside effective Russian AT range to even the odds. Quantity has a quality of its own.

You could do the sums again assuming how many German anti tank guns ve Soviet tanks.

Soviets without radios would need to have a practice (as indeed they did at the end of the war) at the attack so that it did not need to much radio communication.

So basically you have a tank brigade assaulting a panzer grenadier battalion supported by a company of Tigers and a pile of heavy anti tank guns.

I haven't done all the sums, but the Russians are probably going to get creamed.

If I can be bothered I'll calculate the force ratios and success probabilities, but much depends on the posture of the Germans and their degree of entrenching.

All depends what survives the massive Soviet rocket and artillery pre-assault bombardment.

OK, I roughed out some force firepower equivalences. That mass of T34s is certainly quite a scary chunk of firepower, but the Russians really suffer as they don't appear to have any infantry support weapons or significant artillery support though.

The Germans otoh (as Mark noted) can leave their tanks at home and just rely on their infantry and Pakfront.

The raw firepower ratio is just under 2:1 (actually 1.89:1), before any adjustments for troop quality (which will only penalise the Russians) or terrain (ditto). It also excludes all the German reserves.

As the Russians don't appear to have any artillery, this is at best a 'hasty attack', whilst the Germans have some fortifications but not extensive minefields or entrenchments. Their defence level might be considered to be 'prepared'.

Using the DSTL risk tables, a 2:1 hasty attack against a prepared defence is firmly in the 'unfavourable' catgeory (less than 30% chance of success). If the German defence was considered to be only 'hasty' then it falls into the dangerous side of the'risky' category (30-50% chance of success).

The Russians would win a meeting engagement hands down (85% chance).

Give the Russians an (extra) 50 artillery piece preparatory bombardment and conduct a prepared assault (with proper recce, fire planning, engineering support etc) and the firepower ratios shift such that the attack is bang on 50% chance of success. Still a far lower margin than a real commander would accept, but a 'balanced' game.

Even just giving the Russians their battalion and regimental mortar and machinegun companies would help a great deal.

Obviously anything which increases the defenders advantage (qualitative superiority, terrain advantage etc) shifts the odds in their favour.

Of course, whether all this stuff is correct or not depends on how your rules map onto reality. In my experience taking a 1:1 set and scaling it up to a brigade level action can produce some odd results.

What about intel? How much recce have the Russians done and if they have identified roughly where the Tigers are, plaster them with artillery during the attack!

I think you need a larger sample size before you can make statistical analysis of likely outcomes that might model reality. At corps or army level maybe.

Germans win.
Easily.

Download the free version of steel panthers, build a scenario and try it out.

Without all those AT guns, I'd have said its curtains for the Krauts but attacking AT guns without infantry support is basically suicide.

I just converted it into Panzerblitz counters:

4 x T34/85, 2 x T34/76
1 x Su 76
1 x Su 152 (if feeling generous)
6 x rifle companies
plus a couple of airstrikes

vs

1 x Tiger II
1 x Stug III
4 x Pak 40 btty
1 x 88 btty
2 x 20mm AA btty
12 x rifle platoons
1 x 120mm mortar btty
1 x 150mm arty btty

And the Germans are defending a river line.

Predicted result: German victory.

You'd get much the same result with Spearhead (especially as AT guns are so much more effective in SH than PB).

WRG 1925-50 would probably be a Russian walkover though as infantry are useless and because target density and dispersion aren't taken account of, so the Russians can use their superior tank numbers to gang up on the Germans one by one and do the whole Lanchester square law thing.

Tanks only, I'd have to give the Russians the advantage. Too many targets for too few guns, the Russians out number the Krauts 66:11.

Once you factor in the German AT guns and the lack of Russian infantry, it's a really low-odds game for the Russians.

Where's the "Grid Square Removal Service" (aka Russian artillery) and/or a battalion of tank-riders?

[URL=http://s1286.photobucket.com/user/CaptaindeEwell/media/image1_zpswjpen208.jpg.html]

This map is definitely not great but it may suffice. The river is coloured blue and the roads are coloured yellow. Ignore the map text.

Two Soviet attacks are launched from the south over the road bridge and the rail bridge. A third Soviet attack is launched from the west along the north bank of the river.

The centre of defence is situated middle of the map to the south of the main road running west to east towards the northern edge of the map. It consists of the main heavy guns, AA units, HQ, Tiger Tanks, heavy AT guns, watch towers, slit trenches

North of the road bridge is a pillbox, PaK 36s , PaK 40s, Hetzer AT SPG, StuG III, infantry, , slit trench and buildings.
Between both bridges is a dock area with Pz IVs and Tiger Tank, FlaK 30s AA guns and a Flak 88.

The railway bridge leads to an elevated section defended at the end by a pillbox and AT infantry squads and infantry, StuG III SPG, PaK 40, AT SPG Marder III, FlaK 18 88mm AT gun, and watchtowers.

The western approach is defended by a pillbox in a classical mansion house garden, 120mm mortars, FlaK 30 20mm AA gun, and at the base of the hill the mansion stands on is another pillbox and slit trench, PaK 40, Pak 36, StuG III SPGs, AT Infantry and infantry , and FlaK 30 AA gun.

Reserves are concentrated in the north around the railway station.

The Soviets attack all sectors with;
T34/85 Medium Tanks
T34 Mod. 42 Medium Tanks
SU-76 AT SPGs
Late 1944 USSR Assault Squad s
Late 1944 USSR Infantry Squads
South of the river is a battery of D-152mm Heavy Howitzers.

There is also available eight double sorties with Il-2m3.

I hope it helps.

This then is a simple square law analysis 41^2/11^2= 13.9. Threfore ignoring the 25 tanks you get a Massive advantage of combat power, nearly 14 toi oen.to the Russians.

That's not how you do a square law analysis. The actual loss ratio is right around 5.5:1.

However, this relies on two assumptions in the inverse square law that are almost certainly false. First, it assumes that all firing is simultaneous. In any real situation the defending tanks should be concealed, allowing them to fire first (and possibly more than once). Second, it assumes that all of the T-34/85s can fire at all of the German tanks, and vice-versa. If each tank platoon can only see one panzer at a time, and it takes one firing round to get LoS to a different gun, platoons that destroy their targets can't contribute in the next round. Of course, the Germans are certainly under similar restrictions.

If you assume that the panzers fire first with a 50% chance of a kill (5 kills, rounded down) and that the panzers then have a 20% chance of a kill while the tanks have a 10% chance, the overall kill ratio is barely over 1:1 in favor of the Red Army.

Wait--is the terrain a city?

Huh. Ran a more complicated Lanchester where all of the targets are equally vulnerable, and Pks are:

T-34 0.1
T-34/85 0.2
SU-76 0.15

Tiger 0.3 (I assumed one Tiger and 2 Pz IVH)
Pz IV (both), Marder, StuG, Hetzer, Pak 40 0.2
76.2 ATG 0.15
88 0.3
150 0.32 (overkill, not very agile)

I credited all of the long-barreled 75s as being as good as the 85s based on muzzle velocity, better ammunition, better optics, and unimproved hull armor on the T-34/85.

The result was pretty bad: the German force was wiped out and the Soviets lost 14 vehicles. Still, that's only a smidge above a 2:1 loss ratio.

I ran it again with all of the Germans getting a first surprise shot with a Pk of 0.5. The loss ratio was almost exactly 1:1 with the Germans wiped out. If the Germans get a first shot with no reply at their basic Pks, the Soviets lose 22 AFVs.

Why do you ask?

Ah,, so the poor old Russians have to conduct an assault river crossing into a city (very clever reversing the map writing, is that Edinburgh?)

All those tanks are now essentially reduced to infantry support vehicles. It isn't really a tank battle at all but a city fight. Slow and unpleasant for all involved. Given that most combat will be conducted at point blank range on narrow axes, I'd give the advantage to the Russians, at least until they run out of infantry. As long as they work in their standard city block busting company sized combined arms teams.

I believe that it is Kingston-upon-Thames Martin.

That German warehouse is a game changer.

Traffic will be a round the Bentalls Centre.

I have to agree in a town infantry is the king. so Definitely Russian win on infantry.

Not sure that there is that much wrong with my Tank anaysis IF all the Russians could shoot. After all there are only 11 first shots and if you were clever you would force the Geremans to shoot at the poor tanks so the useful ones would have spotted targets. I am aware its callous but the Russians did not seem to bothered about such things.

However in dense terrain like that Tigers are little better than anything else as its messy and they may not get to make the best of there frontal armour at long ranges, where it does most for the odds.

The map was posted primarily to show the bridges spanning the river – the choke points I was describing. The buildings are not representative of the wargame table. However, the position of the (blue) river and the (yellow) roads are.

Ignore the graphics showing a very built up area, the wargame table is much more open than that shown.

You have provided some useful data and interesting information. I take it also the the Soviet T34 Mod. 42 Medium tank is a bit of an 'also ran' fighting machine – at least in comparison to the other mentioned AFVs.

Many thanks

Well, the T34/76 isn't a bad tank against Pz4Gs, but it's mostly facing Panthers and Tigers here.

I could fight it out several times in panzer command and see how it would go in a simulation. I'm pretty sure the Soviets would win as there is stun and critical hits so with the large numbers of Soviets shells flying the law of large numbers will favor them.

Möbius, if you are willing to do so I would certainly be interested in your result.

My OP concerned AFVs, yet as this discussion has developed and your accumulate wisdom has prized information out of me (where I have it) the entire forces of both sides and some flaky idea of the terrain has become known, with addition questions being asked and information and opinions being given. Thank you.

Being now aware of the units involved, what additional comments can you make concerning the Heavy artillery (D-1 152mm Heavy Howitzer v K39 150mm Heavy gun) and the impact the IL-2m3 aircraft would have?

Thanks again.