Ah, the long rocky history of the 5.56mm and alternatives …
Whenever people built an automatic weapon they came to the conclusion that standard military rifle ammo wasn't a good choice. They were too powerful to be practical. That's why the French introduced the short 8mm Ribeyrolle for their eponymous automatic rifle. Fedorov used 6.5mm Arisaka for his design etc. Some chickened out and used pistol calibre ammo, leading to the SMG. Of course the most famous was the German 7.92mm kurz, which in turn lead to the British working out that a short .280 bullet would be far more effective in an automatic weapon than the good old .303.
Of course this takes us to the Americans and their conclusion that nothing short of a red-blooded, high octane supercharged V-12 of a bullet would do for their GI's. Completely ignoring the opinion of every expert that said the M1 was a superlative rifle, but the recoil was a tad high. And oh surprise, John Garand, the designer intended it to use a .276 bullet, which would have given it a ten round capacity and reduced recoil, but nobody less than "Big Mac" MacArthur was of the opinion that recoil and greater ammo capacity was for sissies and he'd have pushed for a .50 Garand if saner minds hadn't convinced him that was too much of a good thing.
So the 7.62mm nixed the British .280 at a time when the Soviets were happily plinking away with their own intermediate 7.62mm AK47.
The M14 rifle was built like a battleship and felt like shooting one. It wasn't too bad in semi-auto, but full auto was something else. Great for suppressive fire, not so much if you actually tried to hit the proverbial broad side of the barn.
Come yet another designer who understood the principle of using a small, low recoil calibre in an automatic weapon, Eugene Stoner and guess where they told him to stick his rifle ?
The problem was when he said his new rifle would use a .223 bullet. Thirty minutes of side-splitting laughter later one guy managed to blurt out "You want our boys to shoot a varmint round ?"
.223 was dead in the water if it weren't for some clever marketing trickery and one newly minted buzzword "Hydrostatic shock"
The trick went as follows, fill a rigid plastic container with water, shoot it with the high velocity .223 and watch it explode. Then explain that the human body is 70% and that the same thing happens to a person hit by such a bullet. "You hit a commie in the pink and his kidneys explode !"
The more cognizant among you will have noticed something doesn't add up in this story. First of all humans are not water inside a rigid plastic container. We may be 70% water, but the remaining 30% makes a huge difference on how our body deals with high velocity impacts and shockwaves. Humans are elastic and tend not to explode when hit.
But the marketing worked, and the Air Force didn't put so much emphasis on blasting commies with a big-ass bullet, but on things like weight, ease of use and Stoner's design turned out to be quite good in that department.
The army that was always on the lookout for an even bigger-assed bullet than the one they used at the time heard that the new .223 made people explode. So they go on board and the 5.56mm M16 was introduced.
After telling NATO they wouldn't settle for nothing less than 7.62mm, the US now decided that 5.56mm was the way forward.
And this is when people started to notice the rifle didn't work as advertised. Sure it killed enemies, much in the same way that every bullet will do so when properly applied, but it didn't do so consistently and reliably. The bullet had a very high velocity, but little mass and didn't do well with things like foliage and even minor barriers like wood, metal, brick or car windshields.
Some British soldiers were very happy to be issued trial M16's in the Falklands, until they got into firefights with the Argentinians and found that while they could hit them, the 5.56mm didn't incapacitate them. A few noticed 7.62mm hits tended to close the case altogether and they reverted to the trusted SLR.
"But wounding is far more effective than killing." The marketing team retorted. If Ivan gets hit by a 5.56mm he might not die, but two or three of his comrades will be have to drop everything and help deal with the injury. If you wound a soldier, he has to be taken care of and this will drain enemy resources and ruin heir ability to wage war effectively. The 5.56mm wins war one injury at a time !"
Again the more perspicacious among you will have noticed this sounds a lot like those wonderful military theories that look great on paper and get nowhere in the field.
In many cases Ivan was left to deal with his injury himself and many armies (and the even more plentiful irregulars and insurgents) didn't even have a system to overburden with wounded soldiers. Of course the biggest spanner in the theory was the fact that bullet injuries are bottom of the table when it comes to battlefield fatalities. Bombs and artillery are the big killers not the 5.56mm and the extra wounded are statistically irrelevant.
But what about those guys who reported the 5.56mm did very well you ask ?
5.56mm is a very interesting bullet. It's high velocity with low mass, it's not ideal, but it has a very interesting side-effect that the Marketing Team has been pushing as a feature ever since the "Hydrostatic shock" and "wounds > kills" sales pitches.
The 5.56mm is unstable. When it his so much as a leaf in flight it can be knocked off balance. More interestingly, it can tumble if it hits things like soft tissues. And because it's fast, the velocity can exceed the structural integrity of the bullet and cause it to break up on impact.
A 5.56mm that hits in the right spot at the right time can both start to tumble inside the target and fragment, that's a soldier's wet dream and a surgeon's nightmare (and that of the target as well)
Mind you the 5.56mm is not consistent. 50-100 meters (or yards) it will usually make lovely text-book quality impacts in ballistic gelatine, but move to longer ranges and add things like clothing, webbing etc and even a disabling injury becomes a rare thing. This is what happened on the Falklands and is happening in Afghanistan and Iraq. The 5.56mm works best under 300m, a very realistic "average" combat range. Note the use of the word "average" there is no such thing as "Guys, can you come a bit closer ? I need you to be in optimal range for maximum effect."
These things are compounded by the widespread use of carbines instead of rifles, the shorter barrel leads to a corresponding loss of velocity, diminished range and less "bang for the buck" so to speak.
One could conclude that if the 7.62mm erred on the high end of the useful power range of ammo, 5.56mm seems to have erred on the lower end of the scale. That's why we're seeing attempts to introduce ammo types that have better ballistics, some actual weight to contribute to the game rather than rely on velocity, and do things better like penetrating barriers and do better when the fight occasionally shifts to longer ranges.
As a final word, Ballistics is the world's biggest crapshoot. People have received "certified hits" and survived. Others took fragments that at best would inconvenience a large mouse and had that sudden unexpected "I think there is a mistake here." discussion with St Peter.
Your ballistics, your tests, your gelatine, your complicated "Take out" formula will only hedge your bet so far. At the end of the day when that bullet leaves the barrel the poor guy at the receiving end may have the luckiest day in his existence or the worst one.
Personally I think the 5.56mm works, I'd hate to run into one, no matter the conditions. Do I think it works reliably ? I don't think so, it has been known to go straight through soft tissue with very little effect, it has even on occasion failed to do significant damage to bone which in my book is the holy grail of hits other than direct fatal organ hits like the brain or heart.
I'm leaning towards the 6.5mm family that have similar dimensions to the standard 5.56mm, but better ballistics, better range when required, will penetrate barriers more reliably and retain all practical aspects of a 5.56mm like weight, size and recoil characteristics. I have serious doubts this will happen, they will continue to tinker with the 5.56mm for quite a while until a real game-changer arrives and renders the 5.56mm obsolete.