"Massive Kickstarter = Retail death ?" Topic

I was wondering if there could be a causal link between major oversubscription on a Kickstarter and subsequent retail failure ?

With nice long pledge dates, and exposure on places like here, is it possible that the main retail demand for niche games is being fulfilled by the KS ?

I believe Mark from Scale Creep made a similar observation in another thread.

Guthroth,
I have had the same suspicion. Gamers who "just have to have it" and regular customers will join the kickstarter to get the lower prices and the add-ons. That has to make a significant dent in later retail sales.

I always found that when I introduced a range that there would be a lot of initial sales, then sales would drop to very little, then gradually pick up again. Suspect it's the same thing – initial have to have/been waiting for these, first group now stop buying, gradually pick up casual trade then first group come back for seconds.

I don't think they're necessarily incompatible, but there's a very high risk of retailers swerving a range after a big Kickstarter.

The initial sales "splurge" of a new range often goes a long way to helping cover the inventory cost of actually stocking a range in depth, so without that a retailer is looking at a big up-front outlay with a very long time until any return on it. I suspect for the two to work together you need to really go out of your way to support the retail channel – exclusives, offers etc that aren't available to the Kickstarter.

Kickstarter is just another online address for purchasing what you want or would like to have in the way of games and miniatures. And, it most likely gets the impulse buys due to three things, lower price, special offers, and limited time in which to take advantage of the special offer.

There are several major US retailers who be closing brick and mortar stores this year due to online sales, both from their own online stores and that of online competitors – Which is more that just similar stores with an online presence.

Face it, if Macy's is feeling the pressure of online sales, then what is to exclude the local hobby shop?

Zombicide was one of the biggest Miniatures related Kickstarters of all time (I think) and it is still being regularly sold in all the game stores I have been to. Other Cool Mini or Not KS campaigns have resulted in huge numbers yet they are still being sold as well. The Great War was a super Kickstarter yet the game still sells out within minutes of new copies being available. I'm sure there are many more examples that would disprove the OP's blanket statement but those are just the ones I have been involved with.

I think this is pretty much on point; it doesn't happen to EVERY game, but it does seem like massive Kickstarter success does not correlate to massive Retail success. People who REALLY want the goods buy in big at a steep discount in the KS, and have no need for more 'stuff' once it hits retail. Yes, there are counter-examples, but there also enough examples to make this think this is a real trap that Kickstarters can fall in to.

-Will

There would definitely be a drag on the retail sales of most miniature based products. As said above, those into the game will buy in big time leaving little needed later.

One can exempt board games from this though. While not an entirely different market, there are many more fantasy board gamers than miniature gamers worldwide. Sometimes there is some cross pollination of customers, but boardgames are not always miniature gamers while miniature gamers are many times also board gamers. Board games also reach out further into the general population which can be quite large if one follow trends (like Zombies.)

Stores can turnover popular board games much faster than miniature games. All one typically needs is what is in the box. Then they come back for any expansion boxes. With miniature games you have rules and miniatures (and the need for paint, terrain, etc.) And the good ones have an ever expanding universe of releases and add ons from books to miniatures. That is always going to be harder for retailers to stock and drive sales. And stores look for inventory turns. Something sitting for months isn't good for the business compared to items that turn over several times a month.

Plus with many board games, there is little knowledge needed to sell someone on it vs why one would buy this new miniatures game, explaining gameplay and the miniatures. Even been to a retail store lately and ask the counter monkey to explain a game and been met with a blank stare?

Off / different topic – Macys, etc.

There is a whole bunch of articles on clothing retailers. Amazon is at 5-8% of the market currently. They re expected to hit 15% in 2-3 years. Believe it or not that is of major concern for many clothing retailers. If one has a choice of visiting a mall or clicking online to purchase the same item and get free shipping, well I bet you can figure out what is happening. Look at your own purchases of stuff you used to buy in the malls and strip mall stores.

KS are nice…when they fulfill. But you have to be there when it launches and you have a small window to get your goods. Then there is the wait to receive them after you pay, 6 months or more mostly. I have been on only 1 KS, Zombicide BP and just got it. I received a ton of stuff most of which will NEVER go to retail and now am finished. But then look at All quiet on the Martian Front, they got lots of stuff but not all and the game is now dead in the water because it killed the designer. Then there are the games that never get finished. KS is a gamble and you can get burned. What it is not is a quick way to get lots of stuff cheap.

Some KS producers are trustworthy, and some are not. Some KS are even just fraud. On the flip side KS's get large amounts of games out there quickly and create a instant demand for the game. Sharp retailers watch and either get in or stock the game when it comes out to feed the need. Other KS support games already out there, the big planes for Wings of Glory come to mind. It is a risk and retailers may need to pay more attention to it in the future. Maybe even look at it as pre ordering some games for future sales.

On the flip side KS HAS fed E-bay sales as investors get in on them, buy more then one set, and then E-bay em off. The bonus figs alone pay for most pledges. So…I can see it hurting store sales, I can even see it filling the need for games slowing down sales for a while. I also see it as creating an instant demand for a game, and getting large amounts of material out quickly to support the game. But I also see it as a risk and a long term investment with questionable return or even fulfillment in some cases.But then I also see some sort of crackdown or change coming soon for KS to stop the abuse and fraud it is subject to right now. It has gone from supporting small companies to a pre order system for some.

KS abuse and fraud aside…..
Some games, I believe All Quiet on the Martian Front, got out of control with stretch goals and overall poor planning and costing. Others seemed to never have planned for success--either in a number of customers or in product expansions.

I appreciate what KS has done for the hobby in general. The projects that I have backed and received I have been happy with for the most part. But I also have come to the conclusion that KS also gives businesses great market research. And an oversubscription to a KS that still shows there are only a thousand or so customers worldwide, may just be a product that never sees store shelves anyway.

My point about Kickstarter and the web is that it just doesn't effect our market, it effects all of the retail market. Just read the business section of major newspapers, and see what they are saying about retail stores in general. It is my understanding that most malls are in trouble and they are working hard at trying to get traffic back. Strip malls or outlet malls are showing grow – but how long before sitting a computer beats getting into traffic.

Kickstarter is a way for people to launch new companies and new products. Whether or not the product gets into the hands of the consumer is besides the point, what Kickstarter has done is taken the consumer dollars that would have been spent elsewhere, such as convention or game store, or in general market, at any other local store. I am sure if someone bought into the Kickstarter for that super cooler, they most likely then didn't go out an purchase another cooler at local store.

Online sales are changing the way people shop and do business. I believe Amazon is now offering same day delivery in some major cities.

There are a few Kickstarters that enable small publishers to get their games out and never make it to retail (or if they do they sell out real quick). Games like Carnivale and Kingdom Death Monster would never have been made without KS.

Unfortunately other companies use it as a pre-order system.

If we're talking about CMON kickstarters (and they're massive), the retail ALWAYS get the stuff before the pledges are fullfilled. Just look at the comments. However, you get lost of KS exclusives (ok, they might put them in their next KS, but still ;))
Also, price of shipment may easily exceed 100 USD, and in this case if you don't mind freebies and exclusives, you'd better wait for retail…

"Unfortunately other companies use it as a pre-order system."

And…? I don't see the problem.

"Online sales are changing the way people shop and do business. I believe Amazon is now offering same day delivery in some major cities."

Yes, with Amazon Prime I can often order things before lunch and have them in the evening. For free*. Beats battling traffic and parking fees…

(*I have Prime for the TV/films)

I think this question is really complicated and it depends on the product.

Frex, with Cthulhu Wars, there's no way all fifteen expansions will hit retail. However, the base game and first three expansions are more likely to exist retail.

With CMON's exclusives, since many of them are essentially IP of other companies, these figures won't show up retail, either.

KS does not set up a retailer-distributor relationship or throughput for you. Many small creators (I suspect this particularly includes boutique miniatures) will still not be able to sell their product retail.

Retailers may be more interested in carrying well-known publishers who don't need KS (eg. Asmodee, Rio Grande Games, Games Workshop) rather than creators who only have one or two KS products.

Many casual boardgamers may not want to spend $100 USD+ on a game that they have not played, nor wish to wait several months for product, or simply miss the KS window. These gamers will wait for the product retail.

Some KS creators start KS for the purpose of selling their company to other companies, using the funding and backer numbers to indicate demand for the product, and are successful. This theory contradicts the assumption that KS takes away retail sales.

Despite the amounts of money and hubbub of a KS project, it's the backer numbers that tell you how many copies were sold. Zombicide: Black Plague sold 20K copies via KS. Are there really only 20K of gamers interested in the game? Or did the KS increase demand for the game by more than this 20K?

Where does retail make its money, anyway? If the majority of sales in retail are from, say, Magic the Gathering, then how do boardgame and miniature KS really affect the retail market? How much of this KS money would have been spent retail (brick and mortar), online (OLGS), or some other form of entertainment?

I've pledged to both, very successful War and Empire kickstarters and although obtaining a large 15mm Punic Wars Roman army, first time around, I still buy from their on line store…..the ranges and figures are great!

2nd round is my long wanted Sassanid Persians!

Shame the W&E Sasanians repeat the same basic mistakes of interpretation from AEIR. Otherwise they would have been my choice from the W&E KS – as it is I am now leaning to the Picts.

When it comes to Kickstarter and retail stores, you need to look at the product being sold.

Some products will have no life in the retail market, whether they were on kickstarter or not, because the demand will never be there. Take miniatures for example. One person could pledge to kickstater, get the miniatures and then later still buy from that company. But, because miniatures are normally a longer term investment and require some hobby interest to paint, his friends may play, but not purchase, or purchase very little, say enough to have as their own unit.

Board games are another product all together different. A group of friends get together and decide to play a board game. The friends like the game, and there is nothing more to do than just open the box, lay out the pieces and play the game. So, for $60.00 USD to $100.00 USD+ you have a complete game which the others who played that night are willing to pay, which is why retail stores will stock it.

Also, products like board games are right now big sellers for retailers. So what if Cool Mini or not sells 20K of them in a Kickstarter, there is still more than 20k board gamers that have either never heard of kickstarter or won't back a kickstarter but will by locally.

KS campaigns are nice but I don't like the "you must buy this now" vibe. I just don't always have the extra cash to back every KS that catches my eye.

Some of the KS campaigns sell their goods later in a web store or retail shoppes, others seem to vanish. This is frustrating.