"China Versus What?" Topic

In your ultramodern 'what if' ground-combat gaming, which adversary would you pit against the Chinese?

* India
* Vietnam
* Japan
* USA
* Australia
etc.

Pretty much anyone and everyone!

etc.

All of the above, and maybe add Russia. All would be interesting.

India may be the most likely at the moment, as there are border tensions and China is reinforcing its border forces.

Philippines and/or some type of Southeast Asia/Pacific Rim alliance.

Chinese and Indonesian naval and fishing vessels have been clashing a lot lately.

China

Kyote, Bill asked about gaming and what if. The last I checked, at my gaming table I get to control the parameters of my game. If I want to game China versus India and set 'no nukes' as a parameter, what difference does that make to you?

I'm not trying to attack you here, I'm genuinely interested. I see often someone complain on an Ultra Moden board, 'that could never happen because xyz' which may or may not be true, but if I want to game, say, Chinese assault Taiwan with US and British fast reaction units inserted to stem the tide because it strikes my fancy on the gaming tabletop, what difference does it make whether or not it couldn't happen because this, that or the other thing? It's a game with toy soldiers. The Battle of Dorking was a what if situation that was always highly unlikely, but it is still fun to game.

I don't hate or fear China. I don't have a political motive. I just want to game a near peer engagement on my tabletop and China has neat toys. People game Cold War goes hot in 1985 all the time. Had that happened for real I would have likely have gone to war and probably (along with a whole lot of other people) have died. I can separate reality from fantasy enough to still enjoy gaming it, though. Even back in 1985 I was gaming 'Ultra Moderns' with German and US equipment vs Soviet Hordes. Believe me that I never wanted that scenario to really happen. Now people game Team Yankee and no one bats an eyelash at it. I never hated the Russians. Hell, I became a Russian linguist in the military and visited there as soon as the Cold War ended.

So why the anguish over a Chinese scenario?

Middle to long term Russia is the best target. Declining population, declining relative military strength, third world level corrupt economy added to restive minorities and a resource rich eastern area sparsely populated by a majority of folks more ethnically akin to China.

Back in the 1970s Cold War era we had a report of a border clash between China and USSR which took three days to collect the dead since there were so many. It was reported as a minor skirmish dispute.

China vs India and Vietnam are also conflicts from the Cold War.

Based the southern expansion in the sea, I would say they are moving in Vietnam arena again. They can attack the Southeast Asia at will.

Japan over the Senkakus.

Will be interesting to see who lands a Marine occupying force there first, and then who can win the long series of battles to keep them.

Interesting question

Naval skirmishes versus Philippines/Japan/Taiwan/Australia maybe

Versus India – the major problem is the little matter of the Himalayas between them; hard to have a huge conflict when there is the world's highest mountain chain between you

USA – maybe – but where?

Russia – possibly as well; actually more feasible but given the Russia's paranoia and willingness to use that arsenal of their unlikely

How about a war by proxy? For instance in Pakistan – whom India resolutely hates and who China supports. Proxy war between India (supported by Russia and maybe the USA) and Pakistan (supported by Pakistan)

USA. It's entirely hypothetical "What if?" so how likely the scenario is irrelevant. If you want one, the US invades China because she got "too big for her britches" and America wants to remain the sole superpower. China is threatening that pre-eminent position.

It's what Harvard professor Graham Allison called the "Thucydides Trap" and the reason Athens and Sparta fought in the Peloponnesian War. Read about it: link

Russia, for the reasons McKinstry listed.

I also foresee a fight over the Eastern South China Sea, at Scarborough Shoal, that China has designs on.

Rumors are they've already surveyed it, and will start building there before the next US President is inaugurated.

Seems a safe bet, given no action to all of their construction thus far, so will probably be a fait accompli by 2017.

I don't see Russia in play currently, given their vast superiority of nukes.

Granted, it is the logical expansion avenue for China, but they've got major nuke weapons superiority, which "Trumps" (get the bad pun?) everything else.

I see skirmishes with Vietnam, over oil drilling in the region, to be far more likely, as well as border skirmishes with India and others.

China vs. China; the inevitable economic and social collapse of China and it's reversion back to historical regional autonomy, i.e. warlord states.

"The mountains are high and the emperor is far away."

Back of Beyond Part II

You neglected the place they are really, really after. Taiwan amphibious invasion.

Sweden!
It consicst mostly of major Swedish cities beeing nuked!(I can say this as I'm norwegian and I got a carte blanche on saying stuff like that, up to and including genocide of swedes)

It says so in the desultion of the union in 1905

"Hence forth all norwegians are permitet, no obilged to bad mouth sweden in perpetuity. And sweden have to take it.

Gunfreak, then you understand my anglophobia!

Awesome!

Agree with Irishserb, China.

On the gaming table, pick anyone you want. It is just a game.

Real world: Russia. The only strategic direction with anything of value open to China is Siberia. There is nothing they want to the East except secure shipping lanes around Malaysia. The only strategic resource to the South is people and China already has enough of them. To the West, 3,000 miles of nothing and no easy way to cross it. The Chinese space program is working on their own version of SDI, while their intelligence people are working to infiltrate and undermine the Russian strategic forces. As soon as they come up with something that keeps casualties from a nuclear attack reasonable, the Red Army will move north.

Unless China falls back into a civil war over economic collapse and their shortage of marriage-age women.

Godzilla.

Depends if you include counter-insurgency – Uighur nationalists in East Turkestan, for instance.

Gojira!

In your ultramodern 'what if' ground-combat gaming

Ground combat?

China versus:

* India – small violent actions along the Himalayas perhaps.

* Vietnam – The PRC could have naval skirmishes or Island grabs but unless the Vietnamese upgrade their military the island scenario is just how long and how many casualties for a PRC "win." On the land war it depends if the PRC doesn't fight dumb and if the Vietnamese fight smart as to how long the back and forth will go on.

* Japan – with US assistance (on defense of recognized Japanese soil) this could get very messy but if Japan goes "on the offensive" there is an excuse for the USA to stay "neutral" and then it is just how much pain the Japanese or Chinese want to endure to save face.

* USA – Aerial and Naval incidents are going to increase in the short run but nobody (yet) has gone to war over an aircraft shot down. Loss of a minor naval unit is very grey given the current USA administration and possibly the same for the administrations of either current presumptive candidate for USA President. Land War? Where? Taiwan is held/lost within the first 24 hours, 48 at the outside. Unless the PRC invades the Philippines or Japan there are no other possibilities. Now if you sink a CV and boast about it…

* Australia – Sorry, guys but not at all likely unless the Australian navy seriously errors and finds itself in a shooting situation around the Paracels/Spratlys… Ship sunk, war over.

Russia? – logistical nightmare for all involved but in theory…

Really reaching here after Russia…

Philippines? Really? I think this is into SF now! With USN support maybe a clash over an islet or grounded ship but ground combat on same – "Instant 'last stand' scenario" I think. Why not postulate a Malaysian-Philippines conflict over Sabah?

Cold Steel, yeah, that is a possibility. Scary and probably remote in the short term but possible.

Bashytubits +1. How'd we miss Taiwan?

Another incident just recently, with a Chinese fighter supposedly flying dangerously close to another one of our recon birds.

Apparently, neither side learned their lesson(s) the last time, and I still don't understand why they aren't given armed fighter escorts when doing these sorties in the region.

Any of the major powers that also colonised the Jovian moons.

Failing that, the yanks, russkies or indians.

India and my scenario would involve the Chinese dam along the Brahmaputra river.

Zombies. Zombies make every game better.

Actually, either Vietnam or a new Chinese Civil War.

Don't think Taiwan would figure in any Chinese 'issues'
which would lead to war.

The economic ties 'tween the mainland and Taiwan are far
too many and far too strong.

China vs. Stoneware.
Or paper plates.

The economic ties 'tween the mainland and Taiwan are far
too many and far too strong.

That's what they said before World War One…

China will invade if Taiwan ever has the guts to declare independence.

I do US/Philippines vs. the PRC. Palawan is my favorite flashpoint…

link

link

link

The Philippines is developing Palawan into a major forward base that is right next to many of the disputed islands. I postulate that the US starts moving forces into the region on a rotational bases to use Palawan as training base, and as a forward base to dispute the PRC's claims. The final straw is when the US installs THAAD SAMs… at that point the PRC launches a land-air invasion of Palawan. That pits Chinese naval and parachute forces against Filipino light forces with US special forces support… with maybe a few light fighters from the 25th Infantry Division and maybe Marines, when I get around to doing them.

That's small, light, and mobile forces clashing in the jungles and built up areas of Palawan trying to get control over the base areas there.

It's been fun so far. I'll do more of this later this summer… after I'm done with my Team Yankee project.

The issue will be who starts what… in the end, the result depends on what kind of action China does.

In my scenario, China continues its current expansion of the SCS, putting military forces there. In turn the others start doing the same. This irritates the Chinese, especially after the law of the sea rulings that go against them (not that they care, possession being 9/10's of the law).

The final straw is when the Filipinos begin to dredge the area around the Sierra Madre in the Second Thomas Shoal. A direct confrontation begins when PLA coastal units, in a high-risk game of argy-bargy with Philippine navy units protecting the dredger, actually sink the dredger and then brazenly engage and capture the Sierra Madre.

The Philippines responds by launching an air strike with all of its FA-50 light attack aircraft, sinking the offending PLA Coast guard vessels.

The PLA responds by launching amphibious raids against all Philippine holdings in the SCS. The US demands China return the lost islands, the Chinese, even more brazenly, demand that if the world wants the South China Sea, it can come and get it… attacking every other claimants islands and taking them by force.

The stage is set for a war… exactly how big it is, well, that would be the billion-lives question.

North Korea.

Increasing instability forces China to intervene before North Korean chaos expands into China, or draws Japan and the USA (and South Korea) into direct confrontation and a potential third World War.

Scenarios can have China intervene to either support or fight Fatty Un, a military coup, a popular uprising, or fight all of DPRK to remove the DPRK's nuke capabilities.

Good excuse to repurpose Cold War/ Warsaw Pact minis as Norks. Their org still follows classic Soviet doctrines.

Russian-aligned rebels in Kazakhstan (a nasty trade war with Russia over oil and natural gas results in a pro-Chinese coup in Astana but old regional allegiances die hard and the PLA is "invited in" for peacekeeping purposes) occassionally augmented with Spetsnaz "volunteers"

Pirate and privateer operations in the South China Sea (ever since the sea levels lurched up almost 10m in a few decades, there is has been a sudden surplus of desperadoes with nothing to lose and access to old American military hardware from the now-defunct Pacific Rim Alliance)