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"In The Event Of War Against China How Fast Can The..." Topic


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584 hits since 21 Mar 2016
©1994-2017 Bill Armintrout
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Tango01 Supporting Member of TMP21 Mar 2016 10:22 p.m. PST

…U.S. Mobilize?.

"Earlier this year, War on the Rocks contributors David Barno and Nora Bensahel argued that U.S. policymakers and military planners should think about how to prepare for the next big war. Their stimulating essay identified six gaps munitions, weapons platforms, manpower, planning, technology, and stamina that a big war against a peer competitor could reveal.

This important article is a call for the United States to improve its planning for mobilization. Part of such planning should consider the competitive aspects of mobilization. In war, mobilization will favor some players and disadvantage others. Mobilization can be a risky, even debilitating act. By fully understanding the competitive aspects of mobilization, decision-makers can tailor mobilization to their advantage, exploiting relative strengths while avoiding vulnerabilities. Crucially, U.S. officials can substantially reinforce deterrence by publicly displaying an understanding of the competitive aspects of mobilization, including how the United States would employ its competitive advantages against adversaries during a prospective mobilization. As we will see, the United States has experienced both the benefits and perils of mobilization, along with missed opportunities for enhancing deterrence…"
Full article here
link

Amicalement
Armand

Personal logo Saber6 Supporting Member of TMP Fezian22 Mar 2016 6:55 a.m. PST

Probably faster than China can project forces across the Pacific

Terrement Supporting Member of TMP22 Mar 2016 8:16 a.m. PST

"Mobilization depends on the nature and extent of the war in question.

I think China, playing the long, or even very long game, wants military might as a tool they can use in spreading their grip and intimidating their neighbors. But i don't think they want open warfare with the US. They want to fight a war that is (can't remember the fancy term) designed to take advantage of their strengths while avoiding ours.

They will continue the geopolitical nibbling around the world like they are doing.

They will continue espionage and corporate espionage to avoid the need for years and billions in R&D.

They will take non-traditional steps like having the "baby hotels" here in the US so that their selected women can come to the US just prior to delivery, give birth to a US citizen, and then return to the mainland. That is clearly a "long game" action.

They will do things through shell companies and fronts.

They will do things like buying up major pieces of the economy.

They will certainly try to buy up politicians. There are, without naming names, already multiple instances of Chinese nationals working to funnel contributions to particular candidates and closing up shop and fleeing back to China before they can be questioned / indicted. Safe to say that will continue.

They will look for opportunities to change the balance of the existing equations not so much by trying to maximize gain and minimize loss but by writing new equations where they control the playing field, or get their foot in the door first.

Space, for one example.

They will also take steps to be able to threaten and deliver crippling blows, some with plausible deniability.

If they ("They" being anyone, not just the Chinese) were to fire off a "test rocket" that has the warhead to knock out our satellite comms and GPS, nearly all of our warfighting on a global scale is gone. Would the US go thermonuclear or be willing to negotiate? No, don't answer that. If "they" hit the grid what then? Massive chaos for us and likely non-traceable. The way the Chinese plan for the long game, they likely have a contingency operation already on the shelf to use even if they don't have to hit the grid, because someone else did.

Framing the discussion about how quickly the smoke signals can gather the tribes is of little importance if the enemy has come with firearms.

It's a new battle in a new world.

I think that is what we should keep in mind when planning.

And I won't even bring up the question of the quality and capabilities and limitations and blind spots of the decision makers referred to in the OP. Just look around at what they've "decided" over the last few decades.

Personal logo 28mm Fanatik Supporting Member of TMP22 Mar 2016 9:06 a.m. PST

The US can mobilize much faster due to her military and naval bases around the world, including Japan and S. Korea.

paulgenna Supporting Member of TMP22 Mar 2016 9:47 a.m. PST

China may have to re-think their slow grab depending on the political winds this fall. An aggressive Commander-in-Chief may not allow this slow grab.

Badgers Supporting Member of TMP22 Mar 2016 10:33 a.m. PST

Sorry but you can't ask silly questions and expect anything but silly answers. There is a real world out there.

Mako11 Supporting Member of TMP22 Mar 2016 1:48 p.m. PST

They have a lot better manufacturing base than we do now, so……..

Personal logo David Manley Supporting Member of TMP24 Mar 2016 9:34 a.m. PST

I guess it depends how long it takes for all your spare parts to ship from China :)

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