"Does Turkey Want A War With Russia?" Topic

"Tensions between Russia and Turkey continue to escalate following the downing in November of a Russian Su-24 fighter jet that strayed into Turkish airspace.

Questions are being raised now whether the two countries are heading for a military confrontation. A leading Turkish military expert told Al-Monitor that such a Russian move could spell disaster for Turkey.

Turkey accused Russia of violating its airspace again last week and summoned Russia's ambassador in Ankara to lodge a formal protest. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu also warned Moscow that it was playing with fire and would have to face the consequences …"
Full article here
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Who really understand the Turks?…if they decides to pursue an open conflict with Russia in that hope that NATO would then jump in and protect them… well… tensions throughout the Middle East and eastern Europe will increase exponentially…Russia would start to support and arm the Kurds, and God only knows what else…

Amicalement
Armand

If Turkey picks a fight with Russia, NATO is not obligated by the treaty to come to the aid of Turkey.

Unfortunately, egos cause wars, not logic.

Erdogan and Putin both have excessive amounts of it.

I read a headline saying the Turks are preparing to invade Syria, so possibly…..

Perhaps Erdogan believes in bringing about the "end of times", like other radical jihadis and the Iranian leadership do.

I'd let Turkey know in no uncertain terms they're on their own, if they do, and/or I'd be backing the Russians.

Erdogan would have to be insane, suicidal or messianic, to start a real war with Russia. The Turkish army would be crushed. The Turkish generals know better. Erdogan may play at brinksmanship with Putin, but if any serious shooting starts, the Turkish generals will pull their men back out of range toot sweet, and Erdogan will fall from power.

I believe that the Turks may be preparing for an incursion into Syria and the seizure of some border territory, to reopen supply lines to the Syrian rebels. "Hot pursuit" of Kurdish PKK rebels into Syrian territory would provide a good excuse. But I think the Turks have waited too long to play this gambit. Putin has warned them off, and he has the muscle in theater to stop them.

Erdogan may gamble and invade Syria anyway. If so, I predict the Rusians will quickly crush the Turkish spearheads, the Turks will pull back to their own country, and Erdogan will fall.

Not that I'm cheerleading for any particular outcome….Erdogan may be clever enough to back off.

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss this as Turkish insanity. Turkey borders Syria and therefore possesses massive home field advantage even if she has to slug it out with Russia alone without any NATO help.

Russia does not have the capability to project power and Turkey can mine the port at Tartus and attack Russian ships by air. If Saudi Arabia joins in and sends Royal Saudi AF fighters to help Turkey it's even more bad news for Putin and Assad.

This makes for interesting wargaming scenarios.

Turkey has a land border with Russia. If the Russians come through the Caucasus, the Turks are in deep trouble.

True, another interesting scenario.

Russians dont have enough front line troops to do more than incursions against the Turks. Turks have more combat troops presently.
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I think Erdogan believes that brinksmanship is the only way to keep Putin in check, but Putin is a master at pulling surprises.

These are not good things.

Only good sign (so far) and many don't understand this important fact of real war, is that armies must mobilize before they can fight, and neither are doing that.

At most, either side can launch some SAMs, drop some bombs and shoot artillery at each other. That's LIC, not a war

Plenty of interesting scenarios here! (smile)

It would not be easy for the Russians…

Would Turkey remain in NATO if she has not support of them?

Amicalement
Armand

Yes, Turkey would remain. Keeps EU ties open and FREE American weapons.

The Turks do have a lot of military kit, and troops for their army, navy, and air force, though my money would be on the Russians for better effectiveness.

Given Russia has too many finger sin too many pies already, I doubt she could actually do much.

Russia has been badly hit by the oil price, I'm not sure she could actually afford the conflict.

The Turks are the 2d largest military in NATO behind the US.

I too saw on CNN, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are planning on going after Daesh/AQ in Syria. I laud such an op. If it actually comes about ? One thing … if the Turks and Saudis commit atrocities again Daesh, etc. … At least they can't blame the West. It will be more moslem on moslem violence and blood.

Don't be so gullible, Legion.

Daesh won't be the Turks' and Saudis' real objective, which is to break the siege of Aleppo and reverse the Syrian gains achieved with the help of Iran and Russia. They're only claiming that they're there to fight Daesh because no one will object to such a worthy cause.

If anything they're helping Daesh, not hurting them.

"If anything they're helping Daesh, not hurting them."

True enough.

"Russia said on Thursday it suspected Turkey was preparing a military incursion into Syria, as a Syrian army source said Aleppo would soon be encircled by government forces with Russian air support.

Turkey in turn accused Moscow of trying to divert attention from its own "crimes" in Syria, and said Aleppo was threatened with a "siege of starvation". It said Turkey had the right to take any measures to protect its security.

In another sign of the spreading international ramifications of the five-year-old Syrian war, Saudi Arabia said it was ready to participate in ground operations against Islamic State in Syria if the U.S.-led alliance decided to launch them…"
Main page
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Amicalement
Armand

Don't be so gullible, Legion.

I'm not, I said … "If it actually comes about ?" …

Or as I said on another thread … " Until I see a Joint Arab/Turk Battle Group rolling hot into every location where Daesh and AQ are. I won't be satisfied. However as Oh Bug wisely noted … the fox is in the hen house. So yes the bigger players are busy … And the West knows it. So again, how can you trust or respect these islamic countries ? When they smile and nod while supporting the very threat the West is trying to stop. " …

Don't be so gullible 28mm Fanatik,

Daesh won't be the Russians' and Iranians' real objective, which is to close the siege of Aleppo and reverse the FSA gains achieved with the help of Saudi and Turkey. They're only claiming that they're there to fight Daesh because no one will object to such a worthy cause.

If anything they're helping Daesh, not hurting them.

Don't be so gullible, Jemima Fawr

Daesh isn't the primary objective of either the Syrians, Iranians, Russians or Turks, which is to accomplish their own agendas and goals in Aleppo. They all claim that they're there to fight Daesh because no one would object to such a worthy cause.

If anything they're all helping Daesh, not hurting them, with all this double-speak and not-so-hidden agendas.

Though at least the Russians can claim that they actually bombed ISIS targets, not just other "moderate" anti-Assad rebel factions. Turkey hasn't done squat.

Don't be so gullibe, 28mm F,

Russia has been bombing everyone in Syria BUT Daesh, aside from very rare and highly-publicised sorties for the look of the thing.

aside from very rare and highly-publicised sorties for the look of the thing

Is this supposed to make people think that Russia didn't really bomb Daesh aside from bombing them just for appearances' sake?

Even if it's "just for show," weren't they the first to launch a large-scale bombing mission against Daesh's oil refineries and fuel trucks, forcing the US and France to follow suit?

Or could it be that you're blinded by your hatred of Putin due to his other activities in the Ukraine and can't stomach the fact that some people think they're doing a good thing in Syria?

No. They weren't. The US bombed the oil convoys before Russia mentioned it.

Or could it be that you're blinded by Russian propaganda? Many here seem to be.

Sooner or later … the Syrians heavily supported by the Russians will have to take on Daesh/AQ. But if they are lucky … the Turks and Saudis will make good on their promise to send forces to Syria to combat Daesh … But I'll believe it when I see it. Plus the Turks may(?) have some success against Daesh. Not so sure about the SANG ? Again, IF they show up at all ?

Assad/Russian strategy all along has been to knock out the lesser threats one by one, so that in the end the choice will be "Do you want me or Daesh?"

The US bombed the oil convoys before Russia mentioned it.

Technically, yes. Fortunately, I bookmarked an article posted last year with a surprising amount of detail on Coalition airstrikes: ( link )

The data is from a CENTCOM release. So 8 months of bombing 5,500+ targets and the US stated only ~160 of those were oil-related. Or less than what the Russians claim to have destroyed in just several *days* in November: ( link )

You might call it propaganda but considering the Russians have been flooding Youtube with vids of them blowing oil infrastructure to smithereens, I'm inclined to treat their claims with equal veracity to America's. Which suggests that the US was either intentionally avoiding Bilal Erdogan's cash cow or incompetently conducting an air campaign. The latter is highly unlikely, given our proven institutional experience.

Assad/Russian strategy all along has been to knock out the lesser threats one by one

Jemima, please share the battle plan you've dreamt up that involves:

1. Taking Aleppo without cutting off its supply lines to Turkey. Supply lines that are largely in non-ISIS hands.

2. Securing the southern flank of Damascus, again another major insurgent supply route (from Jordan)…not in ISIS hands.

3. Securing the route between Damascus and Aleppo, through Homs….which is not in ISIS hands.

What do you want Assad to do? Drive straight to Raqqa with his threadbare forces and leave every major population center in the country open for the taking? Do a "right hook" around Aleppo to hit the ISIS-held towns of al-Bab and Manbij, in the process leaving the Army's entire left flank exposed to counter-attack along an overextended supply line?

Show us your alternative.

Very interesting maps. Assad and Hezbollah and their Russian and Persian supporters have a lot of work to do … It's going to be a very long war. They better hope that the Turks and the Saudis get involved on the ground as they have recently stated. That could open up another new set of "problems" … and not just for Daesh, AQ.

Noble,

As we've discussed here before, prior to Paris, overt assaults on the oil infrastructure, accompanied by film of burning civilian oil tankers opened the USA up to accusations of attacking 'civilian' targets by the usual suspects. The vast majority of their targets were therefore explicitly military in nature.

Assad has no problem obtaining oil supplies from Daesh – he remains their largest customer.

overt assaults on the oil infrastructure, accompanied by film of burning civilian oil tankers opened the USA up to accusations of attacking 'civilian' targets by the usual suspects.

In other words: "we tried it, but some people complained, so we stopped. Until the Russians got GOOD publicity from doing it….so we started again, lest they take all the credit."

…Which is pretty much the point 28mm was making. I've been searching for "criticism of US bombing ISIS oil", and even Russia Today didn't have much to say about civilian casualties: ( link ) ( link ) There is this American professor ( link ) but he was talking about *pipelines* specifically.

Assad has no problem obtaining oil supplies from Daesh – he remains their largest customer.

Color me unsurprised. Tanks don't run on Hope & Change.

Oilprice.com has a good, balanced summary of the Syrian/ISIS oil situation: ( link )

Tanks don't run on Hope & Change.

Amen …