"Putin's Next Potential Target: The Baltic States" Topic

"Although Russia's economy is reeling and its military forces are increasingly engaged in Syria and Ukraine, NATO commanders, governments, and analysts are concerned that Russian President Vladimir Putin's adventurism has not run its course. Most anxieties focus on the Baltic states as Russia's next potential military target.

Russia has many advantages in the Baltics. The situation of Russians there, particularly in Estonia and Latvia where many Russians remain non-citizens, provides Moscow with an issue with which to stoke tensions. Russia's Federal Security Services have also devoted considerable attention to recruiting Baltic businessmen, politicians, and former members of their ranks. Russian intelligence penetration of these states is at a high level, as is its media influence. And it dominates the supply of energy and electricity to the Baltic states, and has not hesitated to use that leverage to influence these nations.

Furthermore, Russia's conventional and nuclear deployments cover the entire Baltic Sea area. From its fortified base at Kaliningrad, Russia can project power not only into the Baltic Sea but also to Poland and even Germany…"
Full article here
link

Amicalement
Armand

All three Baltic nations are members of NATO. Article 5 would apply.

Will Canada and Holland send troops to Latvia to fight off a Russian takeover? Even after Russia has fully occupied Latvia?

How will they get there?

Is NATO willing to fight for the Baltic States?

Can Putin use his agents of influence to get the Baltics to withdraw from NATO?

Many questions, few answers.

Mike Bunkermeister Creek

Article 5 applied to the attack by terrorists on France, but was not invoked, for some reason.

Because they invoked the EUs Article 42.7 instead. More effective in a European context

Article 5 wasn't invoked because the French didn't ask for help….

As for would we fight for LAtvia, the answer is Yes. Putin knows it.

Ultimately if he crosses the line, the West can trash his economy in seconds.

His best mates – the people who keep him in power – all have their kids in education in the UK. If we get to start playing by Big Boys Rules then the oligarchs are personally very vulnerable.

If the oligarchs start pulling their families and money out of London, then I'll worry. Until then, Putin is hamstrung.

"Can Putin use his agents of influence to get the Baltics to withdraw from NATO?"

No, absolutely not. The Baltic States are utterly alienated from the Russians, there is a small ethnic Russian diaspora in all three but from my contact with Latvians and Lithuanians they are both afraid and resentful of the Russian state there is no legitimate way that the Russians could generate enough influence for them even to contemplate leaving NATO.

And, yes, there is no doubt that NATO would go to war for any one of them. I think it is very significant that Putin's reaction to Turkey shooting down a Su24 was rhetoric not missiles.

Russia has current commitments/activities in Syria and the Ukraine with lesser but none the less active investments going in South Ossetia/Georgia and Azerbaijan/Dagestan and Chechnya still restive. There is a limit on just how much trouble anyone, even with a healthy combination of megalomania and paranoia, can choose to bite off at one time.

Putin had again said recently he saw NATO as a threat to Russia's national security … again … With the current general perceived(?) weakness of the US/the West/NATO, etc. … Like a predator, Putin is going after the weak, the low hanging fruit, etc. … Regardless Putin and is crew are masters of propaganda. And it seems he is certainly playing to the Russian populous. It appears many things he says, his countrymen like … plus remember he was KGB …

It may take a very long time if ever for the West to recover from what many see as geopolitical failures, along with complete lack of understand of "Realpolitik", etc. …

It's getting mighty cold out there … again …

This will make for a great What-If scenario for Ultramodern Gaming if nothing else.

If Russia does go into a Baltic state, or 2 or 3. And NATO does not step in (WAIT, we have been here before, Germany and Hitler) then NATO is empty and Russia or another will/may take another territory. Poland would help and demand other to help. They do not wish to give up their sovereignty.
As a scenario to game, good idea.

'there is a small ethnic Russian diaspora in all three'

link

' In all, 4.9% of Lithuania's population are ethnic Russians'
' Today about 27.6% of Latvia's population are ethnic Russians.'
'Overall, ethnic Russians make up 24% of Estonia's population'

So, small may be a fair comment for Lithuania, hardly for Estonia or Latvia.

Agree about a good scenario!.

Amicalement
Armand

On a related note, just read that Poland will be upgrading their Leopard 2s, in response to Russian actions and threats, so they are taking the threat seriously.

The Baltics, FWIW, are also rearming and one (can't remember which) has reintroduced conscription.

But the question to ask is this – what does Putin gain by invading?

He risks total destruction, for what?

Saber rattling for his "voters" consumption is a form of propaganda. Again, he's "former" KGB … It costs nothing to talk "smack" and keeps the "voters" clapping their hands in support …

Agreed, he never had any intention of actually invading Ukraine either – I kept telling my eastern Ukrainian contact that Russia is never actually ever going to take over or annex Donbass, just stir it up and leave it. (I think Crimea was an opportunist grab to get out of a gas deal while stealing the base against which it was negotiated, so a win-win…. except for the very costly white elephant that it has become).

He doesn't really care about Crimea either, but from a domestic front it looked good to 'bring it home'. It's all for domestic consumption and looking good at home, possibly mixed in with a bit of punitive 'how dare you prefer to trade with them instead of me'.

But Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are a lot more economically and socially stable than Ukraine, and I think the Russians living there are actually quite well aware which side their kleb is buttered…

domestic consumption

Equals votes, just look at the political theater going in the US at this time. Not to be too political, but it is a factor in attacking or withdrawing, etc., … Like the US in Iraq. Leaving was what many of the voters wanted … yes ? Many politicians do what is "right" politically not always right … say geopolitically, etc., … And again, that influences in many cases who invades, who withdraws, etc. … Remember what Von Clausewitz said …

War is not merely a political act but a real political instrument, a continuation of political intercourse, a carrying out of the same by other means.

Carl von Clausewitz

War is not an independent phenomenon, but the continuation of politics by different means.

Carl von Clausewitz

I think Geoff's assessment is pretty much spot on. Unless something unimaginably bizarre happens to the Baltic states I can't se a repeat of the Crimea there.
Putin is much more of an opportunist than a deep Machiavellian figure.

Agreed … He knows how to take advantage of a situation … even if it is of his own making. Again … Once KGB … always KGB …