"Unified Korea and the Future of the U.S.-South Korea..." Topic

…Alliance .

"Korean unification could arguably occur within the next decade. No other country in the world is as diplomatically isolated as North Korea. Even its closest ally and benefactor, China, is showing signs of becoming increasingly intolerant of the North's saber rattling and brinkmanship tactics. On diplomacy and economic competition, the North is losing badly. South Korea is often cited as a successful model of economic and political development in the developing world, whereas North Korea is one of the world's poorest nations; having experienced a massive famine in the 1990s, the country now subsists on handouts from China. Cracks are also appearing in the edifice of the North Korean state, as the regime's ability to control the flow of outside information to ordinary citizens diminishes. In December 2013, the country's third-generation dictator Kim Jong-un executed Jang Song-thaek, his uncle and the second-most-powerful man in the regime, on charges of plotting against the leader. Kim has also executed more than seventy other high-ranking officials since coming to power. Although popular uprisings of the kind that toppled governments from East Germany and the Philippines to Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia are still unlikely in North Korea, these events are a reminder that sudden change is always possible and it is impossible to predict exactly when the North Korean state would collapse. Within the next five-to-ten years, a cascading series of events could conceivably end with regime collapse in the North, leading to the unification of the two Koreas.

Unification would constitute one of the most decisive changes in the history of Northeast Asia since the outbreak of the Korean War in 1950, with far-reaching implications for the United States and the balance of power in the region. Assuming that unification does not result from a devastating war, a Korea unified in the next five to ten years would likely emerge as a consumer and industrial powerhouse with a well-educated and hardworking population of approximately seventy-five million people, considerable natural resources (mostly in the North), advanced technology, armed forces that are among the largest and most capable in the world, and, possibly, nuclear weapons. In addition, Korea's policymakers would need to address an important issue about their country's future: whether to remain closely aligned with the United States, draw closer to China, or adopt an independent posture, balancing between the two Pacific giants…"
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Amicalement
Armand

I can't really see that happening, though there was a recent rumor of a coup, and some explosives discovered.

Don't know if it is true or not, but all those executions must be making others in power, uneasy.

There was an interesting BBC R4 article on the prospect of re-unification of the Koreas.

Aside from the how/why/when, the article looked at the economics and of the human capital.

It pointed out that defectors from the north lacked the education, training and skills required in the south. This included a medical doctor who had defected, and had to re-take medical exams in order to qualify for a job in the south.

The costs of reunification would be huge to bring the infrastructure up to the south's standards, both in terms of medical services, education and so on. The numbers bandied around (I forget them), dwarfed the costs of the unification of East and West Germany.

The culture shock would also be huge – the East Germans could mostly get access to western TV and Radio and keep up to speed with the rest of the world, the North Koreans generally can't, though there is increased "seepage".

Is it making more people think about doing it? Eventually the NK people/military will do something. Just do not see it any time soon

This is a dream for both North and South Koreans, however the more thoughtful South Koreans have looked at what it would take to reunify and they want it MUUUUUCH slower. As Giles said the cost would far outstrip the German unification and slam the brakes on the Souths' strong ecconomy.

There are multiple plans for how to deal with this prospect depending on what the cause is. None of them are really pretty.

I believe both China and South Korea have very good reasons to insure reunification does not happen. South Korea cannot afford the trillions of dollars needed to move the North to even a rough parity with the South and China would not likely tolerate a vibrant and militarily capable democracy right next door. I think a wink and nod agreement is already in place for China to run a system similar to their own with the North as a compliant ally for Cina but rational neighbor for the South with a relatively open border. China may be able to afford the 10+ trillion to turn NK into a real country, the South cannot without massive economic disruption.

Agree!.

But… who knows?

Amicalement
Armand

Don't see it happening anytime soon. Based on some of the good comments here … Plus as long as the Kim clan are running the place. It ain't gonn'a happen …