"4 Reasons To Not Underestimate The Russian Military" Topic

"With Russia itching to fight after one of its jets was shot down by Turkey, we assess why Putin's war tech might be better than many people believe.

Vladimir Putin is not a man to back down from provocation, especially a direct, lethal provocation like the shooting down of a Russian Su-24 aircraft by Turkey on Tuesday. Such an attack raises the possibility of a direct military confrontation, and makes you wonder just what Russia could do if you rattled its cage. How dangerous are they?

Russia's defense complex may be just a shadow of the old Soviet Union, with defense spending only about 12 percent of the USA's. As such, many in the West tend to see Russian hardware as second-rate—stuck with 1970's electronics, crude manufacturing standards, and no money to improve matters. If the Russians make anything good, the thinking goes, they must have copied it from the West. The poor performance of the Russian-equipped Iraqi army in 2003 (and Russian-supplied Arab forces against the Israelis) reinforces the idea of inferior Russian military tech…"

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Don't underestimate them, yes. But let's not overestimate them either.

If Turkey is attacked it is part of NATO and will request intervention by NATO. At that point NATO would have to act or else it is dead. I suspect that Putin is not up to playing chicken with all of NATO and so is looking for a way to quietly back down.

The quality of Russia's equipment is not the question. Is the Russian economy up to a full scale war with half of Europe.

Putin is no fool. He won't give NATO an excuse to escalate.

Hmmm, let's see.

Ukraine doesn't want their natural gas, and there are rumors being floated about Russia cutting off the 50% of energy resources they provide to that country.

I wonder what they'll do with all those unused energy resources, and lack of money flowing in.

Free jacuzzis and outdoor, heated pools for everyone?

Have you seen the price of Natural Gas in US. When Obama pushed wind turbines and solar I expected that natural gas use would shoot up (no wind + no sun + high demand at times = natural gas electric generators). However, Obama doesn't want natural gas + solar/wind seems to be in decline + huge increase natural gas supplies in US = extreme surplus in natural gas in US (lost on that stock :< ). Now liquefy natural gas in US and ship to those countries Putin is playing in and maybe Putin can explain to his people why real Rubles are being used in monopoly sets :> .

Now, now….let's see…

Ukraine was fed with so-called reverse supplies in times of previous escalations, but the gas was still the same as Gazprom was selling to Slovakia/Poland, etc. They're not ready yet to be fully independent. This year Ukraine said – after been buying gas through the year- that it has enough gas in UGS to live through the winter. Good for them if it is true.
Gazprom sold a bit more gas for export than last year (4% increase), Ukraine excluded.
As oil prices are falling, and gas prices are connected, general turnover of Gazprom is falling, but it is true for most of the players on Energy market at the moment.
LPG tanker supplies will not solve Europe's dependency on Russian gas. A pipeline from Iran or Turkmenia might help, but Turkmenia and Kazakhstan already sold their gas upfront to China for years to come, and situation with Iran itself, and the region, where the pipeline should be constructed is not clear. Also, falling of oil and gas prices makes European alternative supplies projects (Nabucco, etc) less interesting from the point of investments return.
While life is more difficault for Gazprom now, it si not a fatal problem yet.
With start-up of several LPG's plant in Russia – on Baltic Sea and Sakhalin, global gas market situation will be even more interesting.

Never underestimate you enemy or former enemy or … whatever … If nothing else, if you study the Russians at war. Even if pushed back, they will counter attack, be resilient and willing to take losses. To obtain victory, in almost all cases.

Putin is no fool.

No he is not … he's former KGB … And as pointed out, Russian's economic situation may be their "Achilles heel" ?

As is the economy of most of E.u, submerged in debt, the south and France part of it at least into long term unemployment as none of the structural causes can even be thought of adaptation.

I was thinking Ukraine only sometimes paid anyway…

Soviet military was a lot about quatity, now they are about quality just as elsewhere.
Fortunately we might never know what is is worth.
$ 10 bn worth of tourism expenses from Russia are not going out in Turkey at least, maybe it balances the loss. russian tourists are running out of sunny cheap options ( like the rest of Europe).