"Could the Turks Take Damascus?" Topic

How would you rate the Turkish army today? If they decided to have their own "military adventure," could they pull it off against Assad (and possibly Russian expeditionary forces)?

Yes, they could, they have the 2d largest military in NATO. But it would be very messy.

Indeed. But the Turks were known for doing messy things. However it has been a while.

Of course.

They have a very large army, and their opponents are largely rabble, other than the token Russian force in country.

Yes, the Syrians have experience, but they still are not the best soldiers. Turk numbers and hatred for Assad will play into their favor. But still a bloody mess …

Turkey invading, while Russian troops are in-country?

Sounds like a fantastic way for things to get very very bad.

On a practical note, the Turks are better supplied and have more manpower but the Syrians have more practical experience.

Seems the Turks would be more inclined to kill Kurds than Assad though.

Yeah, they're really good at genocide, even if they don't want to accept the awards.

That would be a huge mess, though, and one that I'd be glad to see NATO not participate in.

I might break out GDW's Third World War series again, come to think of it. Too bad it's so out of date.

A retired general just mentioned he believes the Russian jet shootdown to be a planned attack by the Turks, in order to try to cause open war between NATO and Russia.

He made a lot of good points along those lines.

They do seem to be playing their own game in the region, given all the stuff in the news, e.g. buying ISIS oil, letting terrorists transit freely both ways through their country, letting the refugees flood Europe, not combatting ISIS, slaughtering the Kurds, etc., etc..

Sometimes it's best to let certain skills go by the wayside.

Could the Turks take Damascus? Prolly.

The question is, how long could the Turks hold Damascus in the face of an unlimited number of fedayin suicide bombers?

Kyoteblue asks the important question.

They could take it easily but then they may face a war with Russia.

Don't forget Iran and Hezbollah! Not just Syria and Daesh.

Yes, who in their right mind would want to invade Syria (or Iraq or Afghanistan for that matter).

@Martin Rapier,

LOL!

Based on news reports. We know the Turk Leadership, does not like Assad. And shot down the Russian SU-24 after repeatedly being told by the Turks not to bomb the Turkmen. Who are basically ethnic Turks living Syria. But of course they don't like Assad either. So the Russians continue to support Assad against any anti-Assad forces. And don't forget the Turk's distain for the Kurds. Who are actually one of the few locals effectively taking the fight to Daesh.

Putin continues to be provocative along the Turkish border. As he is along other borders, like the US, etc. …
The Turks instead of being good allies, they chose to make the war against Daesh more difficult. By shooting down the SU-24 and not escorting it back across the Syrian border. Also the Turks get bootlegged oil from Daesh. And at this point they don't see Daesh as a threat.

Also one report notes the Assad is also getting cheap oil from Daesh. So they really don't care how many anti-Assad forces Daesh kills.

And another report states that the US lead coalition did not want to bomb Daesh oil producing sites. As it could cause ecological damage … What ?!?

As well as until recently the "coalition" did not bomb the Daesh fuel tankers as it might cause possibly CD. And may upset the Turks who among others are buying the oil … What ?!?

Plus after the murders in Paris the US released more intel to the French so they could bomb more Daesh targets. And that include Daesh HQs, training sites etc., in Raqqa, etc. … So it took the murder of 130 in Paris for the US to loosen up ROE on targets in Raqqa ? Because the fear of causing CD before.

This is really not the way to run a war, IMO. Especially one against a backward death cultist bent on starting The End of Days. Not that that mattered … they are murdering butchers blinded by a corrupted version of a religion. That are living in the 15th Century and just continues their medieval horror show. That many of the locals either don't care or have the brass to stop their rouge Islamic bros.

"Strange days indeed !"

First of all Weasel is correct, this would be very, very bad!

Second, did anyone else notice how much "closer" to NATO Erdogan wanted to be once he began shooting down Russian aircraft? If Turkey invades Syria to take Damascus and Russia intervenes I'm not sure this would trigger NATO intervention. NATO didn't get directly involved in the Greek/Turk fight over Cyprus a few decades back. I don't believe the treat requires NATO support if the Turks start the war.

Third, what would Turkey do with Damascus once they had it? Assad can barely manage the country and part of the population supports him. If the Turks went in the whole bunch would be on them and the current mess would seem like a child's game in comparison to the "fun" that would ensue.

"And another report states that the US lead coalition did not want to bomb Daesh oil producing sites. As it could cause ecological damage … What ?!?

As well as until recently the "coalition" did not bomb the Daesh fuel tankers as it might cause possibly CD. And may upset the Turks who among others are buying the oil … What ?!?".

Given it took them 14 months to do so, I'd say that report is pretty accurate. It's not like you can really hide that many trucks easily, in the open desert, even at night.

Everyone comes to the table when oil is involved, it seems.

In reality the Turks would not invade Syria, especially since the Russians are there …

Given it took them 14 months to do so, I'd say that report is pretty accurate.

I tend to agree … and IMO, a lot of time wasted …

brass to stop their rouge Islamic bros.

Just noticed the spell check gremlin change Rogue to Rouge in my previous post !??!?

Can the Turks take Damascus? -easily! Not just numbers, they have most of those Leopard I and Leopard II tanks the Germans and Dutch gave up. They also have a very large and modern air force.

The real question is, "Could the Turks take and KEEP Damascus?"

I don't know if they could.

Turks and arabs hate each other. Turks would need to maintain ZOCs and supply route thru inhospitable factions from Damascus back to Turkey. Turks would need to somehow check Russian response both inside Syria and along their border with the Russians and Russian-allies.

Also, this question was posed as a "solo venture", so NATO would not get involved.

I don't know if they could "keep" Damascus, but I doubt it.

Bill's original post is nicely worded. It talks of 'military adventures' not 'liberation' or 'occupation'.

Could Turkey learn from the mistakes of Iraq and NOT take over the country? Go in, drive out Assad and his political supporters (I'm pretty sure they'd run rather than fight to the death), slap down anyone who tries to stop them such as Hezbollah but avoid contentious roadblocks such as the Russians, then get back over the border and leave the mess to someone else to clean up.

Careful routes and targeting could leave much of the Syrian Army intact, so they'll take over law and order – or what passes for law and order in Syria – and everyone will be squabbling and jockeying for power rather than posing a serious threat to external agencies. Turkey doesn't want Assad in power and doesn't seem to mind who replaces him based on their current 'friends'.

Make the aim of the raid well known internationally and especially to the assorted Syrian factions and resistance will likely be fragmented. Do it fast and international condemnation, let alone action, will be limited.

Fast-moving columns of combined arms – making use of the Leo classes' famous speeds – would make an interesting game or mini-campaign.

^^
There is no ways Russia would let Turkey do this unopposed, Syria is their gateway to the Med, so you have to factor in a Russian counter