"Turkey Shoots Down Russian Jet" Topic

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Turks say a couple of F16s have downed a Su-24 after repeated warnings.

Russians say it was shot down by ground fire – which may or may not be a get-out clause to enable them to not retaliate.

Hopefully this won't escalate – Turkey and Russia have strong economic ties, but it's a worrying development.

BBC report that the terrain in the area is sufficiently mountainous and tricky to fly in that Russian pilots are spending more time trying to bomb the right area than worrying where exactly they are…

Might be very bad – I doubt that a plane was not reacting after 10 warnings. If it was shot by Turks above Syrian ground, it's even worse. On the other hand, if Su-24 was flying over 6000 m, and wasn't shot by a plane, who has supplied the system that brought it down?
It is announced that Putin will make a statement soon today.

Well, if it did ignore Turkish warnings – and the Russians have form in poking the Turks, then the plane got what it deserved.

The Turks are notoriously humourless when it comes to this kind of thing – it's not like the fate of Syrian planes hasn't provided fair warning.

If the Turks shot it down over Syria, perhaps to protect their friends on the ground, it is very serious. But frankly the Russians make too much money from selling the Turks gas for it to get beyond finger wagging (I hope!).

If the Russians are right (and there's a first time for everything…) then yes, it means someone has got hold of some game-changing kit.

Given I don't think ISIS are in the region, it could be our Emirati or Saudi friends have been a little, shall we say, bold…

Previous incident lasted for about a minute. You can't make 10 warning in a minute or two. Pilots were told to evade confrontation with Turkish airplanes. At the moment all of it doesn't fit together, but we'll see.

Turks say the Su-24 ignored them for five minutes..

Being a fan of the cock-up theory of history, one does wonder if they were all using the right frequencies…

If the Turks used jets then there is gun camera footage to back their claim unless they used missiles… the Russians say it was AAA.

I would think satellites and GPS should be able to confirm where the plane was engaged. The Russians do have a history of buzzing NATO airspace and disregarding warnings. So yeah, it could be the flight crew pushed things a bit too far.

And before the Russians get too defensive, they have a history of shooting down planes that invade their airspace too:

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As does the US.

Exaro reported a fortnight or so that the Saudis had supplied the kit that would enable this to ISIL and fellow jihadis.

The Turks seem to be claiming this one that could be true or could be an attempt to muddy the waters. Which ever they are highly piqued about the Kurds, the attempts to cut the jihadi Turkish supply route and the disruption of their ISIL cheap oil deal.

The Russians still seem to be investigating.

The Turcomen are very much linked to Erdogan so I would not discount AQ or ISIL operating there.

Overall I'd say prognosis grim.

If it was shot in Turkish airspace I guess Russian pilots mistake will be acknowledged. If it was shot in Syrian space, by Turks protecting Syrian turkmens on the ground we have a problem. If it was shot by SAM, supplied from gulf states, I can't anticipate the development. Doesn't look good either way.

With all due respect, the Russian military doesn't exactly have a great record for acknowledging mistakes.

Though it is far from alone in that. A lot might depend on what happens to the crew – both of whom ejected.

Barin – giving the Kurds a few Verbas might keep the Turks honest… :)

I think Western sympathy for the Turks is wearing a little thin.

Most of the military worldwide I'd say, but here you indeed have flight recordings of planes, can check images from several countries satellites, so there's quite a number of verification methods in this case.

Time to get the figures out for a Russo Turkish War part (checks Wiki) oh yes part 13!!

Putin will be discussing the incident with king of Jordan tomorrow…our MOD has not provided a clear statement who is responsible for downing of the jet.

Time to get the Electic razors out and make new in flight recordings.

Newly relected Erdogan playing a dangerous game .. he is saying Turkish airspace is NATO airspace . The key maybe that Turkey announced they had a 20KM buffer zone into Syria ( which no other country recognised ) in which the SU24 was flying . Appears Turkey is also the main buyer of DAESH oil .

Possibly also of relevance is Russia were probably bombing the Turkmen rebels. Turkey has recently warned them about that, and has said it would take steps to protect its ethnic brethren.

Gaza Flotilla raid with terrorist disguised as pacifist equipped and supported by Turkey

ISIS Brand new Toyota pick ups directly from Turkey Border

Booing minute's silence of Paris victims during Football Match in Turkey

Shooting of a Russian Aircraft in strike mission VS terrorist

What else do we have to think and know before understand and openly say the truth?

Gaza flotilla was exactly what it said it was….

But aside from that, I agree Turkey has questions to answer.

Bloomberg reports emergency NATO meeting today…

The radar trace published by the Turkish show that the airplane was like for 5-20 seconds in Turkish airspace and going out:twitter.com/CNNTURK_ENG/status/669098577524822016/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Clearly this was not a threat for Turkey… this nation should be kicked out of NATO ASAP!

Barin – that's just so we can hear what the Turks have to say for themselves. Nothing to worry about.

Russia Today now showing grim video of the dead Russian pilot … RT quoting the NATO emergency meeting that this is a Turkish/Russian matter and a retaliation by Russia will not invoke the attack on one NATO mbr is an attack on all article .

Turks not exactly sitting on the fence , I wonder how their EU mbrship is coming along ?? link

The Turks are at fault here, clearly………Erdogan is a " loose cannon" in a tempest.

..ah it is a Putin plot – oil prices are up so he can breathe again…
At this rate if he can manage to lose half of his air capacity in Syria he may just balance his (revised) budget… Nah, no way given all his military spending..

Perhaps the West should recognise a Kurdish state, enrol them in NATO, …then we can all sit back.

Turkish protect their little friends of Daesh

Recognition of a Kurdish state would be an excellent thing to do politicaly, strategicaly and God help us moraly. As for enrolling it in NATO that would need some work as a current member seems aligned with AQ and ISIL. Maybe a drop one gain one approach?

Putin just said in his news conference ''we have been stabbed in the back by the companions of terrorists '' ………..

Officially the turks are allies; imagine what they'd do if they were enemies.

Russian saying it was AdA to play down the game, maybe.

….a retaliation by Russia…

Yeah…. not sure that Turkey is really going to accept Russia carrying out retaliations when it feels vindicated that the shootdown was legit in the first place.

Interesting to note that Russia is saying ADA, whereas Turkey is claiming F-16 shootdown. If anything I would have expected the other way round.

What's the actual most likely scenario? That the Russian pilot accidentally temporarily breached Turkish airspace while manoeuvering, was engaged by Turkish jets who broadcast a vague warning (which the pilot possibly never even received) and was then engaged.

Russia Today now showing grim video of the dead Russian pilot

"Video footage has emerged of the plane crashing and of the pilots then parachuting to the ground near the border with Hatay province."

Possible he was severely injured before ejecting and did not survive.

Greatpatton, that's what I've thought. For a starter, I guess Turkey is losing Russian tourists, but it is not going to be the end of it.

Some reports that the pilot was shot while descending

I think it is about time every one stop double games, pretence and turning a blind eyes to realities. The public opinion here is growing tired of this. Actually any one actually putting the real push on terorists support would have backing whatever the consequenses.

It might help if Russia got its story straight; initially they claimed it was shot down by AA fire (while several km inside Syria, so presumably not Turkish fire). Now they are claiming it was shot down by Turkish fighter aircraft while in Syria (which Turkey stated), for which there "will be consequences".

Not sure if this is the same Twitter link above, as I cant get it to work, but this is allegedly a trace of the flight path:

Probably not sufficient to justify a shoot down if they were just transitting (unwise, given the tensions) that finger of Turkey, and a bit closed-minded of Turkey if they have attacked Russian bombers clearly on the way to attack Daesh….

Russia has other bigger problems – Crimea is without power after someone (possibly Tartars) blew up the pylons, and Russia is still some way off (possibly several years before fully operational) getting a submarine cable into place…

There are now unconfirmed reports that a Russian search helicopter has been downed trying to retrieve the pilots.

Oh oh
And since I wrote Putin gave a stark speech FROM Aman.

If nato tells the turks to get lost, as I am pretty sur it will, it means they are de facto out. Interesting stuff. High stakes are on now.
Maybe the sides will now clearify up.
Everywhere people are shouting at the oli money and support for turkey and arabs.

Heads of state know it. If they want to really kick ass (with popular support) now is about right.

Ok said by Vlad from Jordan. So abdallah is backing him, and he does nothing without US approval (cannot afford). It is becoming right interesting.

Pretty sure uS awacs air control plane does know the thing. Actually any one if close to the sea. As 6000 m high is enough that ships radars carry far away.

"It might help if Russia got its story straight"

It seems to me that the Russians took some trouble to find out what had happened before coming to a firm conclusion and noted the possibilities without being definitive.

I prefer that approach myself as oppossed to getting its story straight and having to retract because it wasn't correct. Or worse just pretending the initial story never happened. That tends to undermine public confidence.

"In war, truth is the first casualty." -- Aeschylus

"All warfare is based on deception". -- Sun Tzu

Turkey's news agency Dogan repeats reports that Turkmen commanders have stated that their forces shot both Russian pilots while they were parachuting down, and that they have the bodies.

The aviation experts has already pointed that the plane was in Turkish airspace for about 15 sec -that's what it takes to cross this "peninsula". I wonder how fast you can make 10 warnings….15 sec is a world record I guess.
It is reported that initially Russia was making consultations with Turks right after the incident. As with a plane over Sinai, where Russia didn't want to blame Egypt from the start, Turkey's position was checked. As it was not especially cooperative, we're seeing next phase, and it is not the last one.
BtW, Ukraine knows exactly who has blown the electric line. Judging how the things developed after first attempt to blow the line, they just allowed Crimea blockade activists to do what they want.
Not that it is going to help Ukraine in the long run.

Shooting people parachuting out. How endearing of them. I do hope this will blow out and everyone will finally kick ass, where it hurts and who needs to be really hurt.

What's lost in all of this is that Erdogan has purged many of the generals that had been helping to keep Turkey a secular state. Unless someone else emerges in the military to lead a coup I believe that Turkey is going to slip into the Saudi Arabia/Iran/Pakistan camp where they will openly supporting Islamic terrorist organizations. A very complex situation could become even more complicated.

Not complex: on the contrary crystal clear where all have their masks dow.
And we can finally start a real fight to get over with it. Once for all.
It will develop within the next few days.
Public opinion will sway easily that way, it is now or never.

BBC reporting that the Turkmen have admitted shooting the airmen whilst parachuting down.

Seems a bit unnecessary and tragic, but then I'm not the one on the receiving end of the air raids…. I know guerillas aren't covered but what does the GC say about such a situation?

Either way the Turkmen would have been better served by handing over two POWs… I doubt the Russians are going to be leaving them alone now whatever Turkey says.

There has been some discussion about whether the aircrew heard the warnings… and it has been pointe dout that if the AAM was fired with the plane inside Turkish airspace, it might well have hit the plane when it was in Syria.

Neither Turkey or Russia have a particularly great record about being up front and honest, and Russia in particular has a habit of making stuff up, as the incident with the airliner over Ukraine showed.

I suspect blame on both sides. Turkey over-reacted but Russia has a long an ignoble history of ignoring other peoples' airspace. It's not like they don't know how touchy the Turks are.

Bangorstu, I doubt you'll change your stance on Russia even if there is a footage of Turks sitting on top of the plane and hitting it with sledgehammers. As the flight path shows, there was hardly a chance to issue 10 warnings and shoot a missile during the time the plane was in Turkish airspace. Easy.
NATO knew for a long time where the oil from ISIS was going, and who ever talked to Turks on it?
As soon as the infrastructure and trucks were hit, we see trigger-happy Turks.
Does it mean, that if a NATO member state, supporting and financing terrorists will be hit, UK is going to war for them? Are you really ready for the consequences?

My take is, how accurate was either of their radars/radar tracks ?

Were the Russians on Radio Silence, told to ignore any transmissions … Hell … were the Turks or Russians on the same Freqs ?

If the SU-24 was in Turkish airspace they had to right to shoot it down. But they could have just shadowed it to the border ? Of course I was not in either cockpit. Did the Turks over react ? Was it a nav error by the SU-24 ?

The Turks regardless what they say are spending more time bombing their traditional enemy the Kurds than Daesh.

The Turks have no love for Assad. So as far as they are concerned, Daesh and the various Syrian Opposition factions are doing what the Turks want.

Once again as thru out this situation, the Turks frequently demonstrate that they are not Team/NATO players.

Many in NATO along with the Russians are going after Daesh … it seems once again, the Turks not so much …

Keeping the Russians going after Daesh is a good thing with all that has happened in France, and Daesh's continuing threats to the West, etc. …

Seems the Turks are not playing well with the international coalition which includes the Russians. Especially with all their country men they lost when Daesh blew up that airliner. The Russian justifiably want Daesh blood.

And if it is possible for peace to be brokered in the Syrian Civil War. Russia along with the Persians are the best players to possibly make that happen. But the Persians are Shia and Turks Sunni … so we know where they both stand on each other's religions. Plus the Russians only will go for a peace process if Assad is left in power. Who as I said the Turks don't like …

Not to mention it looks like the SU-24 pilots were killed by one of the Syrian Opposition factions. It appears the ethnic Turkmen. While in the air. Which IIRC, is not allowed by one of the GCs. Of course, no one there seems to follow any of the GCs.

Were the Russians playing games to provoke the Turks as they do with the US and others by flying too close to a border ? But why ? I see not reason for this to happen.

And once again, the Turks are running their own game. Regardless of what other NATO allies like the US, France, etc. would like. Again, not being a good ally.
If things go from bad to worse … I'm blaming the Turks …

IMO the Turks know if it comes to it, they with their 2d largest military in NATO. Can take care of Daesh, if they really want to and are willing to take the losses. But I think we all know, that the Turks are not the Iraqis or Syrians, etc. … And they would do a much better job in the elimination of Daesh.

The Turks have warned the Russians to not bomb the Turkmen tribes near the border. As they are considered defacto "Turks" that live in Syria, I believe. But are not supporters of Assad, it appears. And possibly the SU-24 looked like may have be near Turkmen villages ? Even before crossing the border ?

Again, I was not in the cockpits, so we will have to wait for more information. Hope that the SU-24 pilots are not dead already or be victims of the medieval barbarity that is rampant in the regine.

Turkey just sent a clear message to the Kremlin that bombing close to her borders could be hazardous not only for the terrorists. It'll be interesting to see how Putin responds.

Bangorstu, I doubt you'll change your stance on Russia

Barin, stu is like Daesh in his beliefs that what he says is always correct. Whether it is or not. But truth is in the eyes of the beholder. And we are all entitled to our opinions.

And yes, the Turks and others in the region were/are getting cheap bootlegged Daesh oil. Again, not very good allies. And corruption is rampant in the region's governments, etc. …

As I have said, before, the US should have never supported the Muj in A'stan. As we see, how well that turned out. But among other things the US wanted payback for the Russian support of the NVA/VC, etc. in SE Asia.

A case of what you sow so shall ye reap. On both the Russian and US sides. And bottom line the Russians are much more like the West than any of the Islamic nations in most cases. Again, hindsight is 20/20 …

Not to burst anyone's bubbles, but this looks ugly on many fronts. The Russian SU-24 appears to have been bombing the Syrian opposition to Assad, NOT DAESH, in this instance. Turkey warned them that there would be consequences if this continued.

The people who shot the Russian pilots dead as they came down were the Syrian opposition to Assad, you know, the ones we in the West were claiming were 'the good guys' and who we helped arm. It turns out they aren't exactly as good as we thought.

The Turks did what they warned they would- shoot down planes that went after the folks they consider countrymen. They've done it before, and the Syrians have shot down Turkish planes that strayed (even if for only a few seconds) over their border. However, the Turks have tacitly allowed DAESH to exist and did nothing as long as DAESH does not overtly threaten Turkey. They buy DAESH oil, kill Kurds and allow them to be killed by DAESH. Furthermore, Turkey is in the midst of a long slide from secular to devote state whose sympathies are less and less with their NATO allies and more and more in alignment with the other middle-eastern dictatorships.

This is a mess and everyone's hands are as dirty as can be. Show me an innocent party in this situation- I doubt you will find one.