"China in East Asian Waters: Escalating?" Topic

Writing in Proceedings magazine, Jeremy Thompson suggests that if the courts grant legitimacy to the Philippines' claim, this might place China "…in a position from which it must either comply or resort to escalation and aggression as was experienced in the Cod Wars."

Do you think this conflict will escalate?

All the way to thy Dawghouse!

Using only unclassified sources?

Actually I am with Big Red on this one –

The big red "Abort" sign is flashing on my HUD…

China's gambit is a foolhardy attempt to bluff their way into a position of power over, not only the nations around the South China Sea, but over Worldwide commerce that transits those seas. It is also designed to shift the focus of the Chinese people away from home where there are growing problems with the economy and much unrest over endemic corruption and pollution. Confrontation with a coalition of neighbors backed by the US enables the regime to beat the nationalism drums and bring the people together against the foreign "other". They will increase aggression against the weaker states shipping, fishing fleets, and naval vessels up to and including ramming and use of weapons. USN ships will likely find the harassment by Chinese "civilian" ships escalate to ramming. During the "Cod Wars" Icelandic Coast Guard ships rammed Royal Navy ships more than once. Glancing blows but very dangerous on many levels. The US is war weary but the Chinese stand that International Law does not apply to them and they can claim sovereignty over waters clearly belonging to other nations flies in the face of US history regarding freedom of the seas. None of this is going anywhere good.

Hmmm.. interesting.

See, it wasn't hard to comment without the dangers of dawghousing.

It already has, but yes, it will escalate further.

Look for swarms of PLA-N controlled "fishing boats" from their merchant marine, and "coast guard" vessels to play bumper boats in the SCS, or to actually ram USN, and other outside vessels that dare to enter the region.

Then, they'll blame the USN for being "overly aggressive" in Chinese "sovereign territory", and causing the accident(s), for political theater on the world stage.

Apparently, some of the above were present during the USS Lassen's last transit near the Chinese-made islands, and some even crossed the bow of the Lassen, albeit at a reasonably safe distance.

"Wag the Dog"

I'd agree with hocklermp5 above , a proportion of this is for domestic consumption , the rest is bullying neighbours to arrive at some diplomatic solution in China's favour.
BIG problem is that the upper tiers of the Chinese Communist Party will believe their own BS.
I'd suggest at some level they KNOW they can't win militarily ..hence all the recent near-weekly press releases about the "next new hi-tech weapon system" China has ready …it's an effort to 'look formidable' ..when they know they are actually relatively weak (ie; waaaaay outgunned) AND without a legal leg to stand on. …classic Sun Tsu.
However …some overenthusiastic little blue man is likely to cross the line first ..provoke a response …and have China cry 'foul' ..again ;to achieve a favourable diplomatic solution.
The Vietnamese and Phillipines have had enough already, but aren't likely to back down short of war.

…sorry to say .

good moment to stock up on your plastic crap from China, and sell your shares in Walmart.