"What If The Islamic State Wins?" Topic

"than 50 analysts at US Central Command have recently said that claims of the so-called Islamic State's weakness have been greatly exaggerated. If analysts' allegations are correct, maybe it's time to start asking the question everyone seems intent on avoiding: What happens if IS can't be defeated? Do we then have to acknowledge the possibility of an IS victory?

We're not talking about a global "convert or die" type of victory that would see the world consumed by the apocalyptic ambitions of IS's megalomaniacal leadership. Instead, what would a more plausible kind of "agree to disagree" or at least "agree to be mortal enemies" victory look like for IS? Perhaps something much more pragmatic, like being able to effectively govern the territories they already control and successfully protect the borders of their so-called caliphate…"
Full article here
link

What if…?… we began to live in a new "Dark Age"!.

Amicalement
Armand

No, it will be like Russia 100 years ago or France 200 years ago- new boy on the block, lots of hype and posturing, probably a few wars as borders stabilise, then… back to 'normal'.

Although I hope the new state doesn't manage to have the same impact as my two examples. However, a Muslim Power Block is a'niche' in world politics that really has yet to be filled.

And lots of dead minorities…

And the sex slaves.

No more TMP?…..

The Terrors in France, purges and gulags in Russia – extreme revolutions produce extreme measures against the ones who lost. That period may last a few decades, but eventually the pendulum swings away from the extremists.

I talked to three international volunteers just back from Syria who were fighting alongside Kurdish forces in Northern Syria (two Brits and one American).

When I asked about the possibility of Islamic State increasing its hold, they said that I.S in Iraq was likely to fall within the next year.

This was because of the sheer number of entities opposing them in that region: Iraqi Army, Shia Militias (supported by Iran), Kurdish Forces (backed by the USA, UK, Germany etc) plus the coalition air strikes. One of them said Mosul was likely to be taken very shortly.

In Syria it seems to be a different story. The Assad regime isn't likely to go any time soon. Especially now there's an increase in Russian support. The Kurds in Northern Syria are highly critical of Assad, but are not fighting him. Their focus is entirely on defending themselves against IS which they rightly see as their main threat. The Kurdish YPG are saying they'll support whatever government changes occur "as long as they adhere to democratic values – representing secularists, christians, muslims, yezhidis and the Syrian people overall".

I was interested to find out that Assad still pays for all the municipalities in the North, including street lighting, road works, whatever hospitals still exist. The reason the Kurds didn't want to oppose Assad militarily (as the Americans initially wanted) was because it would ruin whatever basic infrastructure they had left in their towns and cities.

All three of the fighters agreed that Islamic State were suffering severe attrition. They said that a year ago they were better trained than the YPG, but due to the losses of many of their experienced battlefield commanders and troops there was a significant reduction in their successful operations and a large increase in losses. However, the sophistication of their weaponry like night vision goggles etc was still higher than the Kurds.

The Kurds themselves are doing incredibly well, considering they have to source most of their weapons on the black market. Although the contribution by US Special Forces (admitted last week) and UK Special Forces (not admitted to yet, but as these guys said "they're definitely there because we've met them!") shouldn't be underestimated, especially in areas like target acquisition for air strikes.

In essence IS aren't likely to go away in the short term, but at the same time if they think they'll achieve the downfall of 'Western Civilisation' then they're absolutely delusional.

I think if they have to feed people and run a country that they will settle down. They'll become corrupt. Once they have a status quo they care about they'll have to eliminate their more radical elements that want to gamble what they've won trying to achieve all their ends.

I suspect it may look a lot like what's happened in the Palestinian territories.

I agree with much that is said here. And it seems the world needs to insure that won't happen. It appears to me, the regional forces in the area, still don't or won't understand that. And may be hoping the West pulls their butts out of the fire. Regardless of how much aid, support, etc., the West provides. The locals are bound by age old tribal, ethnic, religious, etc. hatreds and differences. Like in Afghanistan, until the moslem world can overlook all that. Then get together to stop the horrific threat in their back, & front yards. They may just deserve what they all get …

Very interesting FriedlandUK!

Thanks for share!. (smile)

Amicalement
Armand

The Kurdish forces in the North under the YPG/YPJ have been trying to overcome the same backwards divisions you mention above.

link

However the West initially decided unwisely to try and back elements of the rebel Free Syrian Army. Many of those who make up the FSA are either corrupt ("almost bandits" as one volunteer told me) or want to establish a similar state to ISIS. So instead of properly helping elements in Syria who were closer to our ourselves in values and outlook (the Kurds), they ended up funding a disaster.

It would appear on surface that the UK and US governments don't really have an overall strategic plan to tackle the problem.

I neglected to say this before – Very good intel ! I hope those in the West in charge have this information !

"When I asked about the possibility of Islamic State increasing its hold, they said that I.S in Iraq was likely to fall within the next year".

Yea, good luck with that.

I suspect for such a crazed ideology, with rabid followers cropping up all around the globe, it'll continue on for a very long time.

Just a couple of days ago a woman's daughter here in the USA stabbed her mother to death, after watching hours of ISIS videos on-line, apparently.

It might be possible to suppress them a bit, but they'll still be hiding in the dark recesses of society for far longer than I'd like.

Plus, they've still got thousands of Hummers, M1 and Soviet-built tanks and other armor that no one can seem to find, even with flocks of armed-drones overhead, and 24/7/365 satellite coverage.

On the plus side, I guess, the $500 USD million dollar program to promote the FSA is a bust, because all the troops (50 – 60) we were training have fled, switched sides, or been captured or killed (our ally, Turkey can be thanked for ratting some of them out to ISIS and/or AQ). They weren't really interested in fighting ISIS apparently anyway, but were just there for the money, training, ammo and weapons we provide.

Testimony before congress earlier this week mentioned that we're back up to four or five "trainees" again, now. Then, a couple of days letter, that number has "swelled" to 9 trainees, for the $42 USD million spent on the program, thus far (so $8 USD – $10 USD mil. each, or $4.5 USD mil., depending upon which number you prefer.

"It would appear on surface that the UK and US governments don't really have an overall strategic plan to tackle the problem".

I think you are on to something………..

Dan

Dan … beware … I've been DH'd for say something like that !

I didn't say it! All I said was that someone might eventually do so.

Dan

Notwithstanding the media hype, ISIS is a spent force after the initial victories which resulted in its controlling large swathes of Iraq and Syria. In fact, ISIS may have overextended itself in costly and failed offensives like Kobane. Its most experienced and battle hardened soldiers have been attrited, and recruiting foreigners are becoming harder not only due to Turkey's policing her border but also the realization of prospective foreign volunteers that ISIS expends them as cheap decoy/fodder for airstrikes and suicide attacks.

ISIS would be wise to consolidate her hard-won gains, and to establish a measure of "legitimacy" with the populace under her control. The world may never accept ISIS, but at least the new status quo will have to be recognized.

too late

I tried to warn ya Dan ! I was the Cooler King for awhile. And I don't look at all like Steve McQueen !!!! So I attempt to not say certain things that violates/upsets the Boss's and/or his rules. His party … his rules … sad but true … OT, that is some of the best intel I've heard from Friedland in a long time. Hopefully it will come about. And if Baghdadi and is crew survives, or if any Daesh survives. They should be charged with war crimes, etc. … And the death penalty should be in effect. Why waste anymore $$$ keeping these sub-humans alive ?

I think you guys might have actually inadvertently brought it to Bill's attention.

Not my intention … I didn't hit the [!] button. Bill must have been surfing, looking for another victim/wrong doer … Only Bill knows for sure …

"Notwithstanding the media hype, ISIS is a spent force after the initial victories which resulted in its controlling large swathes of Iraq and Syria. In fact, ISIS may have overextended itself in costly and failed offensives like Kobane. Its most experienced and battle hardened soldiers have been attrited, and recruiting foreigners are becoming harder not only due to Turkey's policing her border but also the realization of prospective foreign volunteers that ISIS expends them as cheap decoy/fodder for airstrikes and suicide attacks".

Sorry, I'm not buying the party line, and rumors are they're up to 50,000 people now.

New wannabe recruits and/or killers are getting busted here in the USA almost daily, and I suspect we're only hearing about 1% – 10% of those they're catching – e.g. the daughter mentioned above, and another guy who made multiple attempts to get to the Middle East to join his buddies (epic fail for the last guy).

IMNSHO the problem in the Middle-East is that the West doesn't know when to leave well enough alone. Assad may be a very bad man, but removing (or supporting those that would) is falling into the same hole that led to invading Irag, which is how the West got into the current imbroglio. YMMV.

Yes … who would have thought Saddam was the lesser of evils ? The same could probably be said about Assad. Sad but true, IMO. As I have said before, in retrospect GWII was a error. And I always add to that supporting the Muj vs. the USSR. Both strategic errors in recent times. Of course hindsight is 20/20. We clearly see good examples of cause and effect in both cases. And things are worse now than before … You could also throw Libya on that list.

Couldn't agree more with Paint it Pink's comment. Multiple examples in modern times of the problems that are caused when removing the "bad" man. Unfortunately many countries need the ruthless nutter in charge to keep anarchy at bay

Not sure Paint in Pink has it right on what happened in Syria. Assad drove his people to revolt. A very small amount of outside influence took place when Syria blew up. The Syrian people had just gotten fed up with the mismanagement of the country by the Assad family. The other Arab Spring events sparked the revolt. The real problem was the lack of a unified opposition. The lack of unity led to ISIS and the other radical factions gaining the upper hand. The West has never had a real plan about what to do. All the West has done is to confuse the events on the ground.

I'm reminded of skinny Achmed, the Dead Terrorist …

Dan

"Arab Spring"

That phrase sounds so ingratiating. As if their domino-like spread of instability and radicalism was the beginning of a new Golden Age or something. Plus it's not just Arabs either.

Anyway, if that's what it really not what it heralds, then the phrase is terribly incomplete. Feels like it should have the word "Loose" in the middle of it.

Dan

Arab Spring

It's like a square dance with barrel bombs and swords.

Swing your partner round and round
Throw them roughly to the ground
If he is not quite dead
Quickly chop off his head

What's the Arab equivalent of banjo music?

cheers

Or celebrating a new bar of soap, perhaps? Like "Irish Spring"?

Dan