"Sino-Russian War" Topic

So in the past, the Russians and the Chinese have had the odd spat.

What's the likelihood in the near to medium term of such a spat developing into a fully fledged shooting match, a la the Sino-Indian conflicts or the Sino-Vietnamese War?

I ask mainly because I would like to get into ultra-modern gaming but am not keen on gaming the stuff that's actually happening… as it's actually happening right now.

Chinese territorial claims envision the border 400 miles deeper into Russia. IF the Amur River border had vast amounts of oil shale, diamonds or rare earths that would be a reason.

Or another Tunguska with a intact Green Orion Slaver Ship….:)

Well, I just read the headline of an article saying both's leaders are in a bit of distress, as their economies are slowing significantly due to the falling price of oil (Russia), and economic retraction (China), so………

Also, apparently Putin didn't get the money he was seeking from China, after their meeting, in the last week, or so.

Russia has more nukes, so that might keep things calm for now.

Chinese has some historical claims for a whole Siberia up to the Ural mountains. There is also a lot of Han people already, and will be more in the future. China very very slowly works to retaking Siberia (as well as Siberian cut of Arctica). It will take them century.

I am afraid when Russia will finally change geopolitical orientation it will be too late for them, and we Europeans will loose Siberian oil and minerals.

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islamnews.ru/news-52891.html

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That's some really crummy Photoshopping.

Is it likely? Probably not. Neither of them stand to gain an awful lot from it and the Russian economy is unlikely to survive a full scale war.

Good gaming material though. BMP's everywhere!

What is a viable wargaming scenario for a future Sino-Russian War? Assuming China is the aggressor with a punitive landgrab for failure (by Russia) to repay a loan or Russia hardballing over gas and oil deliveries.

1) What sort of force can China project across the border?
2) Would they use Category A units or run-of-the mill units to redraw the border?

3) Given the length of their supply lines how well can Russia respond? Piecemeal? or in strength Matching or exceeding the aggressors?

I am assuming a lot of airpower and airborne deployments, ground units with masses of mobile SAM and Artillery.

Obviously going Nuclear will be a threshold that neither side will want to cross for fear of the M.A.D. consequences.

The literal "wild" factor is Putin . I don't see him as going along with any Chinese takeover of Russian territory as it is not in his character to do so He would first threaten the use of nuclear weapons and would not be afraid to use them if it looked like he was losing The only "mad factor" is his tremendous ego

Good ideas here. Thanks chaps!

Found one scenario – sorry for bad translating from Russian:

China is building its armed forces in line with the concept of" strategic borders and living space ", which was there prepared to justify the legitimacy of warfare outside China. The concept assumes that the growth of population and limited resources of natural causes obvious need to expand the space for security further economic activity of the state and enhance its natural sphere of existence …

The attack will begin in the winter in a New Year suddenly and unexpectedly, when everyone in the Russian Federation together with the leadership of the military – political loses opportunities for effective response.

And winter freezes and the Baikal Amur! The National Liberation Army of China easily exceed the Amur. Trans Siberian Railway bus explosions will be cut in many places west of the Yenisei by a group of Chinese saboteurs among immigrants. China's cause of the attack is a violation of fundamental rights and interests of Chinese living in Russia. Chinese press would not elaborate about being beaten several Chinese in Vladivostok and Yekaterinburg.
The most concentrated impact will the Chinese army from the area Hailaru, to the west in the direction of Chita – Ulan-Ude – Irkutsk. Chinese secret plans also provide for passage through the territory of Mongolia, which China considers a legitimate their land. Mongolia, moreover, would have no one to defend.
After the capture of Irkutsk, another objective of the National Liberation Army of China will output reaches of the Yenisei. Russian troops between Chita and Krasnoyarsk are few and will not put much of a fight with such a huge outnumbered ….
Nuclear weapons no one will use …
But Chinese airmen will venture far north for improved subsequent generations of former Russian SU-35!
The entire territory of Russia to the north and east of Chita proves to be in complete isolation from the rest of the country.
On the master circuit and the Coastal Amur and Khabarovsk country, the command will throw numerous Chinese infantry divisions consisting of trained and mobilized the peasants and the unemployed. Loss of life for the Chinese leadership would not be relevant, and will even be considered expected and beneficial!
Russia will have no possibilities to defend Yakutia, Sakhalin and Kamchatka, especially in the absence of supply …
The first will come to Russia with the help of Poles. Polish military contingent as part of the powerful European Union and NATO set off the first assist Russians at the same time realizing their goals …

Frankly I think it is improbable. China will start when it dominate Siberia economically, culturally and demographically. "Siberians" (with a little help of Chinese intelligence service and Chinese mafia, which are in Syberia essentialy the same) will ask for the right to self-determination. Most not-Han local officials will be bribed by China. The new government of Free Republic of Siberia, with single Han as a Ministry of Internal Security, will ask for protection from PRC. PRC agree and will offer reducing Russian debts (as well as gigantic bribes to Kremlin masters).

It will be the same situation like was in Crimea, but this time with a Russia in the role of Ukraine. No war. Just selfdetermination of "native Siberians". There will be some accidents of Russian patriots of course (even if most of true Russian patriots will be relocated before the conflict due to actions of bribed Russian generals), some outbreaks of water contamination leading many Russian units to diarrhea etc. Transbaikal Railroad will collapse in several places. No war. Promise of regular payment of pensions by PRC Programme of Sybiera Improvement will be decisive..

Alternatively read here official US report on Great Siberian War 2030:
PDF link

There's also the "fifth column" consideration for the Russians. After all, for the last few decades the Chinese have been doing the "Mexican Border Cha Cha" across the Russian border getting people in. If they can do that they can smuggle small arms and and possibly heavier gear across to aid in any takeover attempt. How much disruption would it take to give China an advantage?

There's a school of thought that Russia could break up into a bunch of little states when Putin leaves the stage. They basically tried to before Putin came to power, and he's been threatening and/or bribing the various state leaders to keep them in the nation.

(Sadly, it's late enough that my Google Fu is failing me, and I haven't found the articles discussing this possibility.)

So my take is that China's biding its time until that day, and then the Chinese sympathizers will move Siberia to China. To game such a thing, you'd need to figure out when Putin dies, and what kind of person his successor is.

If you want to game tomorrow, Putin suffers a stroke while arm-wrestling the Most Interesting Man in the World. Medvedev is the obvious successor, but fails to execute a smooth transition. Chechnya and some of the other Russian republics might be in play, as well — so, yes, BMPs everywhere.