"North Korea's Most Lethal Weapons of War" Topic

"Tensions are certainly rising in Asia--especially on the Korean peninsula--and the world is watching to see what could happen next.

North Korea, for lack of a better term, is one hell of a hot mess. And its one that if South Korea and its ally the United States ever had to go to war with would create all sorts of problems.

From a leader who has more in common with the fictional Dr. Evil than any other normal head of state to rants about going to war against the United States and South Korea on an almost weekly basis to much more serious and deadly temper tantrums (like attacking a South Korean naval vessel and opening up its artillery to shell islands), one never knows what Pyongyang is capable of—just look how it treats it own people…"
Full article here
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Amicalement
Armand

Perhaps having a quiet diplomatic word with China might be a good idea?
That way they can lean on "the idiot" to calm things down or if he won`t play ball then work with them to replace him with somebody more reasonable. The whole real reason for this is likely because his hold on power is less than secure.
All off the record of course.

Those 'quiet talks' with China have happened several times in the past. I suspect one is in the making even as we speak. China does not want a war in their backyard, at least not until they are ready to commit to it fully.

Just been talking to a mate who is on a break from working in China.

He doesn't think China wants a war at all. He just thinks the Chinese government is incredibly ham-fisted and lacks the ability to see how Chinas' actions can look from other points of view.

Given the parlous state of the Chinese economy, they really, really don't want North Korea to go off piste and start a war.

However, the NKs leaders get nuttier with every generation, and it might be the Chinese have insufficient influence to stop a war starting.

They an of course, via a variety of means, stop one very quickly.

Un does not even want war … he just want to show his constituents he's still relevant in the world and flexing is "powerful" muscles, Show all that the might US "fears" him, etc. … Maybe he wants to chat up the South for more aid or something. He played this game before. He must know if he rolled across the border. His force would be decimated… at least. And as we were briefed when I was in the ROK '84-'85. The ROKs and the US were not going to counter attack to reestablish the inter-Korean Border. As in Germany at that time. We were all going North to Pyongyang and beyond. Of course the politicos in the US would make sure the PRC knew we would stop near the Yalu and go not further. They had nothing to worry about. And the PRC may be glad that their troublesome goofy neighbor was gone, etc. … The mission was to destroy the North's dictatorship and unite the Koreas. And if the Korean leadership that survived, even the Great Leader, it was Kim Jung Il at that time. He and his cronies would be up on Crimes Against Humanity charges, etc. …

Since I can't figure out how to do paragraphs … I'll do this

We also flew the UN flag on our Guard Posts and Warrior Base on the DMZ. We were under the UN flag. To make sure the Nork leadership knew they not only be facing the ROKs and USA, but other UN forces like in the 1st Korean War. In actuality, I'm not sure who from the UN or just NATO, ANZUS, etc. allies would show up. In reality probably few if any. The main show was still in Europe back then. Maybe the ANZACs as it is in their backyard. And always seems to be up for a good scrum. But today I'd think with the huge downsizing of old NATO allies, expense of modern warfare, etc. … It would probably only be the ROKs and US for sure taking on Un and his forces. Maybe the ANZACs as I said. Maybe Japan as they have a history of the North kidnapping Japan nationals, spying, etc., etc. … But regardless, the ROKs and US would most likely be enough. To remove another old festering sore on the planets backside … But as always, any assistance would be welcomed I'm sure.

Assuming it doesn't go nuclear and assuming that the PRC and Russia don't step in the estimates that I have seen from the Pentagon is that ROK and US forces would take somewhere in the vicinity of 6-8 months to take down NKorea. That's probably too quick for any forces from Europe to intervene but probably within the scope for ANZAC intervention (if they are so inclined). It would however be a very bloody and savage war and US/ROK forces would probably have to kill large numbers of NK civilians as they have been thoroughly brain washed by years of the various Kims propaganda into believing that we would be coming to take away their wonderful (compared to how awful our lives are are) lifestyle.

However what I see as more likely is some sort of political moves, perhaps fostered by the PRC. There are plenty of people in the upper reaches of NKorea who would be perfectly happy with replacing the Kims. Little Kim is busy trying to show that he is the boss by standing people in front of anti-aircraft guns for their executions. You don't do that if you're secure in your power. While the vast majority of NKoreans love the Leader and think that their standard of living is the best in the world, there are people at the top who know different.

Never underestimate the ability of a shaky dictatorship to do something stupid. Sortieing 50 submarines is a major escalation, something we haven't seen in a long time. Given the unprovoked sinking of an SK frigate several years ago that enraged the SK navy, it won't take much for some ship captain to shoot first if he finds a sub where it doesn't belong. The chance of a shooting war hasn't been this high since the 70s.

The NorKs regularly saber rattle if they think they can gain something. What is missing this time is both the means and power to effectively confront them. When they started getting feisty during the buildup to Gulf War 1, they challenged the UNC representative at the table in Pan Mun Jom over how over-committed the US was. They backed off when we told them we had 10 more divisions and over 1000 aircraft that we could start bringing to the ROK that day. We no longer have that kind of force, nor do the NorKs have any reason to believe our political leaders have the willpower to fight a bloody war.

BTW, if it comes to shooting, don't expect the PRC to sit back and let the UN invade the north. They will not tolerate US troops on their border any more than we tolerated Soviet troops in Cuba. The PRC didn't intervene in 1950 to help the north, they intervened to keep the US away from the Yalu. There is no reason to believe their attitudes have changed. If the ROKs alone invaded the north, the PRC would probably give token support to keep up appearances, but not intervene.

China would react violently to a unfriendly political rival on its border. It would not sanction a reunification of the Koreas which would bring that about under any circumstances.
@jowady Dir Sir the United States Military is not in the Business of Killing civilians Brain washed or not to comment that" US/ROK forces would probably have to kill large numbers of NK civilians as they have been thoroughly brain washed by years of the various Kims propaganda into believing that we would be coming to take away their wonderful (compared to how awful our lives are are) lifestyle" is silly and offensive to the honor of this Vet and I resent it..

I don't see your problem with jowadys comment trance, look at Okinawa! Not to say it would necessarily go down that way but a possibility nonetheless.

I smell troll-bait…

As a vet who served multiple tours in Korea and has sat across the negotiating table from the NorKs, I too don't see a problem with jowady's comment. The NorK people worship the Kim family. They hold the US responsible for their problems and train their children from infancy to hate and kill us. In an American kindergarten or elementary school, if a student does something well, they get a gold star beside their name or a similar mark of commendation. In the NorK equivalent, they have a dummy dressed in an American uniform. As a reward, the student gets to hit the dummy with a bat. The whole class cheers when the head is knocked off. By age 10, they are teaching their kids to shoot the American Imperialists. The NorK people don't know any better and if war comes, there will be little difference between the NorK populace and their troops. It will make the civilian casualties on the Eastern Front pale in comparison.

I would think today the PRC would be glad to talk to the US about such a counterattack to the North by the ROKs and US if it occurred ? They know Un is a loose cannon, etc. … And the US has much better relations and economic ties with the PRC today than in the '50s. But you may be right Cold Steel ? As my 2 tours on the Z, I didn't sit at the table as you did. I was on the Guard Posts or at Warrior Base. No one invited me to the peace table talks …

Only sat at the table once, but spent a lot of time around the side of the room while others sat there. The NorKs can be hilarious as they try to disparage us without going so far that we walk away. Their translators only refer to us as "American Imperialists," but the way they mangle the words when a native Korean says that repeatedly while working themselves into a good self-righteous socialist froth defies description. Sometimes, the hardest part of the negotiations was trying not to laugh.

And no, the PRC will not permit US troops to invade the north. Un may be crazy, but he still meets the PRC's primary goals: a buffer zone and a foil to keep the West, ROKs and Japan off balance and distracted away from the PRC's expansionism. When Un goes too far, the Chinese will rein him in or arrange a 9 mm headache for him.

I think that sadly what was told to 5th Air Force Pilots re Japan in 1945 is the situation we would face in Korea, they were told "there are no civilians in Japan". My Father participated in War Planning for Korea in the 1960s and 70s. They always planned that the "civilian" population of North Korea would be almost completely mobilized for a war with the South or the US. That is simply the reality. Now if someone thought that I was advocating massacres I wasn't, just realizing however what the DoD believes, the North Koreans will fight savagely and their commitment to the defense of their country will be total. If we get involved in a shooting war in Korea almost no one North of the 38th Parallel is going to welcome us with open arms. To think otherwise is simply to kid yourself, or to believe that this will be some sort of "clean" war where all we effect is "regime change" and only the guys at the top will be affected. They have been told over and over that if we come it will be to kill them all.

When Un goes too far, the Chinese will rein him in or arrange a 9 mm headache for him.

We can only hope ! Would solve a lot of problems …

As has been mentioned, the Chinese don't want an American (or even Russian) ally on their border.

The Koreans don't want to be a Chinese or Japanese puppet state, and so want a large nation as an ally.

So now you can't have a situation other than what we have now. A semi-isolated North Korea and an American-allied South. In order to change things, you'd need to have the Chinese and the Korean leadership sit down and come to an agreement as to which major power the Chinese will get on their border.

We could trade. We take over north korea and fix it up and we give the chinese Alabama in return

You ain't never been to 'bama have you ?

I was going to say South Dakota but I am not convinced that state isn't a government conspiracy.

You ever heard a news story happening in South Dakota? No, I didn't think so.