"Russian-backed Guerrillas Attack Mariupol" Topic

It appears that the offensive against Mariupol is beginning again in earnest, since there was a lot of shelling in the city's outskirts over the weekend:

link

I suspect the Russians still want that land-bridge to Crimea, though some here think that may be too heavy a lift.

Given their successes to date, I think it is only a matter of time until they get it, either by direct seizure, or in some sort of new, peace deal proposal.

Wonder how viable a bridge across the Kerch Strait would be?

It appears that the offensive against Mariupol is beginning again in earnest, since there was a lot of shelling in the city's outskirts over the weekend

Probably the worst place to stir up trouble, as the more militant Avoz Battalion is based in that area and far more likely to engage head on.

It is quite possible that this is just an aggressive response to earlier shelling in one direction or the other. The latest OSCE report indicates that there has been sporadic shelling over the last few days in that area, in both directions, although there is no clear 'front' so it is difficult to say for sure who was firing:

"On 15 August, in "DPR"-controlled Krasnoarmiiske (33km north-east of Mariupol) the SMM conducted crater analyses of eight fresh craters. According to a "DPR" member present, the shelling took place on 14 August. The SMM concluded that they were all caused by Grad multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS, 122mm) originating from a westerly direction.

On the same day in government-controlled Andriivka (41km north-north-east of Mariupol), the SMM conducted crater analysis of eleven fresh craters caused by shelling on the previous day, according to information received from a resident. The SMM assessed that the impacts have been caused by 152mm artillery incoming from a north-easterly direction.

On 16 August the SMM visited "DPR"-controlled Telmanove (50km north-east of Mariupol) to follow up on reports by representatives of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the JCCC that the village had been shelled in the early morning. The SMM analysed 16 craters and concluded that they were caused by MLRS (122mm BM-21 Grad) fired from a west-south-westerly direction."

This was allegedly on the 16th. 3 days later there appears to be no concerted follow up so I suspect it was just a single engagement rather than any attempt at assault.

However this is Mariupol's opinion on becomeing part of a break-away republic:

So I suspect there would be less of a welcome for a separatist force.

I suspect the Russians still want that land-bridge to Crimea, though some here think that may be too heavy a lift.

Putin is slowly distancing himself from the situation, militarily. He has stirred up trouble and left that pot to simmer, and now has bigger fish to fry (NATO in Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, ISIS to the south). While the Russian military may be able to seize the 200+km of coast line that they would need to hold to secure a land-bridge, it is highly unlikely that a separatist force on its own could do so, and even less likely that they could sustain it.

That would drag Russia into the fight full on, and I don't think there is the political will or public support to go with that.

This is an attempt by the DPR to complete their stated intention and control the whole of the Donetsk and Lughansk oblasts, but the whole thing has lost momentum and has bogged down, with neither side really committed to full-on action.

Wonder how viable a bridge across the Kerch Strait would be?

It has been tried a couple of times in the past, without success, although technology has moved on. Medvedev has stated that it will be built, and the project is once again under way with an intended completion date of 2019: link

However the cost and logistics is pretty immense (The project is estimated to cost 228 billion rubles, or 4.36 billion USD) and I am not sure that Crimea is worth the expense, other than perhaps politically. Crimea is not self sustaining and what they really need is supplies (especially water) from Ukraine, but no way Ukraine is going to entertain that to land they deem illegally occupied.

Thanks Geoff, excellent response along with data, I appreciate the thoughtful, intellectual discussion by all parties.

"Probably the worst place to stir up trouble, as the more militant Avoz Battalion is based in that area and far more likely to engage head on".

Never good to attack strong forces, unless perhaps Putin is counting on a strong response, in order to garner more of the Russian public's support for the guerrillas.

If the Russian-leaning forces were to suffer a setback, or the Ukrainian military were to become more heavily involved, he might be able to use that as a pretext for more direct intervention.

Putin is a sly one, so I don't discount his actions.

I think the momentum has gone. Russian public support is waning and the constant denials that they are involved, combined with questions over deaths of soldiers apparently sent to Ukraine by a fiddling of the documentation of service, makes it much harder for him to directly support action.

I hope you are right, Geoff.

I did see where the court(s) have supported Putin's "state secrets" proclamation with regard to military casualties, so suspect the official coverup will continue for some time.

Just adds fuel to the growing conspiracy movement within Russia though. Nemtsov may be gone, but his report was still published and has raised a lot of questions.

Did you see the woman fired for revealing that she worked as a pro-Russian internet troll was awarded damages…?

link

She got… One rouble

The problem for Ukraine is what to do next…

They cant just give up on the territory and walk away, but they are not in a position to take it back militarily (not to mention the political/diplomatic fallout).

But it is really expensive (not to mention demoralising) to keep a large armed force in the field doing nothing.

Any escalation will face the fundamental problem that war is expensive and Russia lacks ways to pay for that.