"Hypothetical - China's ADIZ in South China Sea" Topic

It's happened. We knew it would.

After the last ASEAN meeting to discuss China's continued island terraforming in the South China Sea, and their repeated warnings to the USA and others not to interfere with their "uncontestable sovereignty" over the region, the PLA and China's leadership have declared an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the entire South China Sea.

This is especially to punish the meddling Americans, who have no right to question Chinese sovereignty.

The Chinese are also threatening to impose a Naval Defense Identification Zone (NDIZ) in the region as well.

China claims the latter will only be imposed if other nations "force it to do so". They claim it will only be against armed naval vessels of other nations, but it's suspected by all that this is merely a ruse to placate some at the UN, and in ASEAN, until they have completed their bases and installed military assets on them, in order to impose more stringent control over the region.

Much to the dismay of their Asian neighbors, and the USA, they've also completed large runways on Subi Reef, and Fiery Cross Reef, and have stepped up their expansion of their bases at Mischief and Mabini Reefs as well, close to the Philippines. It is anticipated that the Chinese plan to build a large airstrip and naval base at Mischief, and to militarize Mabini too, in order further tighten their grip on the South China Sea.

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These last two moves by China, and the militarization of the reefs in the region have been the final straw, and the USA, and other Asian nations have agreed that something must be done to stop China from further increasing its grip on the South China Sea region.

But what, since all sides say they wish to avoid a conflict?

Some believe it may already be too late to stop China.

An emergency meeting is called by the affected nations in the region, with claims to various areas of the SCS, or that feel they may be adversely affected by events there. The USA is also invited to the discussions, since they are the only country with the power to stand up to China effectively.

Recently, the USA has stepped up its air and naval patrols in, and adjacent to the region.

Japan, also worried about its SLOC (Sea Lines of Communication), and oil shipments from the Middle East, has begun sending patrol aircraft to the SCS as well, and is considering sending some patrol vessels to police the region also.

China is declaring a firm 12 nautical mile territorial zone from each of its bases in the SCS, in addition to an EEZ over the whole region. As we have seen, it appears that they are also now attempting to create a string of multiple 12 NM territorial zones around each terraformed island base, in order to strengthen their claims in the region, and since it appears they believe possession is 9/10ths of the law.

The USN and others do not agree with these claims on the "terraformed" islets that they've created in the region, and continue to insist on the right of free navigation of the seas for all of the world's nations.

So, that's the background setup for the hypothetical scenarios (well grounded in actual events).

What I'd like is some assistance in creating some good, realistic options for kicking off interesting air and naval skirmishes, with perhaps even the small, odd amphibious invasion, or raid as well, by various nations. Most likely, the USA will take on the lead role, and other nations will provide whatever assets and support they have available.

I'm not looking for political discussions, and/or arguments about why the above situation, and/or conflicts will or will not occur.

It's happened, so now we need to figure out what kicked it off, and how, where, and against whom.

This will be a localized conflict, restricted to the SCS, and possibly with a little spillover into the Indian Ocean (if you and I think it makes sense). It will definitely not go nuclear, and will not involve other regions, like the Senkakus, Taiwan, or Japan (unless the latter two decide to provide some support in the SCS – again though, no battles in the waters of these nations). There's enough to worry about in the SCS.

So, thinking about possible events to kick off the skirmishes in the region, and looking for ideas to do that, e.g.:

1. patrol plane gets intercepted by the Chinese and roughly handled (already been done, but it does look to be one of the most likely causes a second time);

2. as for #1, but this time the US has sent a pair of F-22s to ride shotgun for the recon bird, and their pilots don't like how the Chinese pilots are treating their friends;

3. bumper boats in the SCS – already happened with some vessel, so again, another likely candidate (a good option for getting some of the smaller nations involved in the conflict);

4. vessel accidentally runs aground and sinks, and the enemy gets the blame, or interferes with the rescue effort (can work for all sides);

5. other Asian nations' vessels or aircraft are roughly treated, causing a conflict to erupt (either side could kick off this one);

6. raid by a nation on an oil rig in the region, which has no right to be there (again, either side can use this one);

7. locals citizens/fishermen attack one of the weaker manned outposts in the region, causing a major diplomatic incident (the Philippines has a LST grounded on one of the reefs, and need to resupply their troops there periodically – the Chinese have tried to stop that in the past);

8. light vessels attempt to resupply their troops on one of the outposts/islands, and the opposing "coast guard", or navy tries to stop that (see #7 above);

9. USMC deploys to Mabini Reef, and/or Mischief Reef to remove the Chinese from the island(s), since both are within the 200 mile EEZ of the Phillipines. This occurs after the latter invokes a little known clause in the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), signed between the USA and the Philippines in 2014;

10. submarine grounds in disputed waters – will the other side let them be rescued/aided, or will this kick off a battle(?); etc., etc..

So, feel free to chime in with ideas for kicking off an incident, or conflict (air, naval, land) in the South China Sea. Of course, where appropriate, suggested forces for the different sides and factions would be useful too.

For the air sorties/skirmishes/battles, I'm thinking primarily of USN F-18s, perhaps backed up by F-22s out of Clark Air Base in the Phillipines (B-1s and B-52s based there perhaps, but more likely out of Japan and Australia). Of course, they could fly on their own sorties as well.

For the Chinese, they get J-10s and J-11s on the islands, with perhaps a few large recon/bomber aircraft as well. Perhaps even a stealth jet or two, if they can be made, and kept operational.

Naval patrols in the region will start small, with perhaps those anemically armed, LCS', that need to prove their worth, doing a little recon work around the island bases the Chinese have built. Larger escort vessels in pairs, or trios as things get hotter.

The Philippines will just have a few ex-USCG patrol vessels.

The Chinese get a wide array of missile boats, and escorts, plus some "coast guard" craft, and some subs.

The USN and others may have some subs in the area as well.

No doubt, all the subs, other than perhaps the Chinese, will need to be cautious to avoid fratricide.

Will probably go with 1/600th aircraft for the air battles, and 1/600th – 1/700th, but perhaps 1/1200th for the naval vessels. For larger naval battles, may even drop down to 1/2400th.

Thinking about either 1/144th or 1/100th for the amphibious invasions and land skirmishes.

Looking to keep the skirmishes/battles a bit small, at least to begin with (just a few jets or vessels), but I suppose as time goes on, things will escalate, and we might even see a US Carrier Group steam through the region, if a USN escort vessel, or three can't get the point across, directly.

Perhaps too, some B-52s sent through the ADIZ, with, or without escort, just to press their point home as well.

Again, no nukes, but, if the USN deploys a Carrier Group, some of those new, deadly Chinese torpedoes (Russian developed), cruise missiles, and perhaps even a number of anti-carrier ballistic missiles may make an appearance.

Do EMP warheads count as nukes?

Not always, apparently.

No, plenty of open source info on non-nuclear EMP weapons, they just tend to be a bit short ranged. There is even an EMP device available that fits into a 122mm artillery shell or a rocket.

I'm not sure the USN would take the lead in any actions in the SCS. More than likely it would act in a supporting role of one of the other countries.

All hell will break lose as soon as the first Chinese or American died as a result of a challenge The use of a device like an EMP would be economic suicide

Let's use a historical example of the time during the Iran Iraq war when the US established a "Pax America" over the Arabian/Persian Gulf to escort and then reflag tankers to assure that oil deliveries would not stop. During that exercise an Iranian airliner was shot down buy a US warship killing all 290 on board

Now extend that into the South China sea when as cited by the OP the US flies B52s over the Chinese "islands" and the Chinese thinking they are under attack shoot down a United Airlines flight on its way to Singapore.

Now do you want to be the US president who has to come up with an appropriate reply ? That too is a hypothetical situation as real as any suggested.Let's hope that it does not come to this .

Imaginative assumptions under the cover of planning a wargame have to be seen in terms of reality and that to me takes away any fun enjoyment of a game It is just too serious an issue to trivialize

At least one American died when that airliner was shot down by Russian guerrillas over the Ukraine, along with many, many others from Europe and Malaysia/Asia, IIRC.

A widespread war didn't occur because of that, though sanctions have been imposed on Russia.

We also did nothing when they downed our patrol plane by having one of their pilots collide into it, a while back. The crew and aircraft were held hostage for some time, before being released.

Not sure why an EMP set off over a US Carrier Group in the SCS would be guaranteed to be economic suicide. I suspect it would disable the USN's sensors, many of their weapons and aircraft, and perhaps even the ships for a while (perhaps some permanently – I'm not sure even the experts know for sure). Most likely, if rescued in a timely manner, there would be few if any casualties from such an attack.

Now, then say that the Chinese, once they've made their point that the SCS is their lake, by disabling a whole US Carrier Group with a single shot, then permits ocean-going tugs to come in and rescue the disabled vessels, due to their benevolence towards others.

Sure, it would create a lot of tensions, and perhaps even an economic embargo on many things produced in China. I doubt we could afford to go cold turkey though, since they produce so much of what we need on a daily basis.

I suppose a total economic embargo is possible, but probably highly unlikely, since they are our manufacturer of choice.

Also, as an FYI, we have already flown B-52s through the Chinese ADIZ near the Senkakus, without prior notice, so that sets a realistic precedent.

I suspect going to a widespread nuclear war is really a last choice option, so really doubt that.

We have satellites available (rumor has it they can read newsprint from 22,500 miles up, and not all satellites are in geo orbit, so some would still be available even after an EMP burst), and/or a recon bird, or fighters they can launch in short order to check things out.

The escalation would stop when they realize that neither side wants to lose a city, or more, to nuclear war.

Can't say on the reactor for the vessel, since I'm not a nuclear engineer, but imagine there must be some manual method for shutting it down.

How'd they deal with it if it was hit by SSMs and their electrical and computer systems are knocked off-line?

I don't consider a game to be speculation about the potential death of thousands of sailors in the destruction of a carrier group or a nuclear exchange between countries causing millions of death Games are supposed to be inherently fun

I don't consider a game to be speculation about the potential death of thousands of sailors in the destruction of a carrier group or a nuclear exchange between countries causing millions of death. Games are supposed to be inherently fun

Didn't you just describe the very notion of wargaming?

As reported in the news yesterday, the Chinese haven't stopped building on the reefs in the SCS, despite their official statements to the contrary, and the Asian nations have said this is increasing tensions in the region.

Also, the Sec. of State has gone on the record to state that restrictions to the freedom of air and sea navigation in the SCS will not be tolerated.

Meanwhile, China is declaring the SCS to be their undisputed, sovereign lake, so……

Perhaps you are unfamiliar with how an EMP works, Toronto. It doesn't cause any human casualties, at least directly, but does tend to fry electronics, so computers, sensors, and electrical/power systems are very vulnerable to this type of attack.

In the larger scheme of things though, this sort of an attack will probably be the least likely to cause casualties directly, to a US Carrier Group. It will most likely render most vessels inoperable, and defenseless for a time, without actually sinking them, or causing human casualties.

Think of it as being equivalent to the tasering of a suspected criminal, so it could be considered by the Chinese to be a viable tactic. It is certainly one that the current USN leadership is worried about.

The likelihood of such an event is at the far end of the scenario spectrum.

I suspect most battles will be much smaller in nature, pitting limited numbers of fighters and/or bombers against one another, along with perhaps some mix of small forces of naval vessels as well. Most likely, the latter trying to arm or resupply existing forces on some of the reefs/islands, while others try to blockade them to prevent that.

Perhaps the occasional small, hit and run raid on facilities and troops occupying the islands as well.

Kyote I am not against speculating about possible future occurrences or the options that the various parties could use Not doing so is like an ostrich burying his head into the sand and hoping that everything will just go away.

Knowing what could potentially happen from an innocent flyover by military aircraft to the use of tactical nukes is essential to show both sises what the risks are and what are the possible consequences of a given action

Yes Mako I know exactly what an EMP is and that the easiest way to cause it is to explode a nuclear device in orbit above the target. The use of a nuclear device for even this limited purpose of causing an EMP and causing no casualties is still the use of a nuclear device "Popular opinion" in both areas would just see nuclear and scream for retaliation. Imagine the headline "REDS ATTACK USN WITH NUCLEAR MISSILE"

Kyote I do not want to play a game where I may take the role of a Chinese pilot or warship captain and end up firing a tactical nuke at say the USS Ronald Reagan or a US sub captain firing cruise missiles at the Chinese bases on Harbin -either of which could be the first shot of WWIII. That is too current for my liking.

"BEIJING (Reuters) – China hit back on Monday at U.S. criticism that it restricts navigation and overflights in the South China Sea amid a festering marine territorial dispute with some of its neighbors.

China claims most of the South China Sea, through which $5 USD trillion in ship-borne trade passes every year. The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei have overlapping claims.

Freedom of overflights and navigation doesn't mean allowing foreign warships and military jets to violate other countries' sovereignty and security, the Foreign Ministry said in a statement to Reuters on Monday, after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry accused China of restricting such movements in the region last week".

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Like now?

China just devalued its currency:

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Granted, only a slight change, but their exports have dropped considerably of late, and there's been a pretty significant correction in their stock market bubble.

Personally< I would start with an attempt by the Chinese to take Pagasa Island from the Philippines.