Everything I've read points to ATGM being most effective when used from ambush positions.
If you want to get REALLY technical, you can do some math:
(Assuming the scenario is BMP fires first from an obscured position, since if the tank spots and fires first, it's curtains for the APC)
The BMP fires the missile.
It takes a certain amount of time for the tank crew to spot the launch. (split seconds?)
It then takes a certain amount of time for the tank commander to shout a command (split seconds?)
How long does it take for the tank to acquire the target accurately, turn the turret to face the BMP, fire and for the shell to travel to the target?
VERSUS
The flight time of the missile from launch to the target?
Fancy staking your life on that math being in your favour?
If not, I imagine some sort of reaction throw will be in order to see if the tank crew does fire or tries to move instead.
If all of that sounds too complicated, roll 1D6:
1-2 Tank gets hit. 3-5 Tank evades. 6 Tank fires back. If it destroys the BMP, give a 1 in 6 chance that the tank is also hit by the missile.