"World War III: Neither Imminent nor Impossible" Topic

"Today, war between the United States and China is unlikely. Despite the ongoing cyber escapades, island wrangling, and strategic pivoting, neither state wants to escalate the competition into armed conflict. The rationale for avoiding war is sound — nuclear weapons, economic interdependence, and increasingly lethal conventional weapons ensure that the human and economic costs would be excruciating for all parties involved. For the foreseeable future, both the United States and China will likely rely upon posturing, economic leverage, espionage, and diplomacy to achieve their goals.

This seems to be the current consensus and it should be reassuring. However, Professor Christopher Coker of the London School of Economics challenges us to think differently.

Beware of the Improbable

In The Improbable War, Professor Coker suggests that the low probability of a U.S.-China war may be putting us all at greater risk. This may seem counter-intuitive, but it is an idea that stems from an all-too-human tendency to oversimplify risk (a subject about which Coker has written a great deal). When an event is unlikely, we often assume it will not happen and direct our attention elsewhere. But Coker points out that war is still "a possibility inherent in the present, and as a possibility is not yet an inescapable fact." By redirecting our attention away from this possibility, our assumptions encourage a dangerous form of complacency…"
Full article here
link

Amicalement
Armand

Well you can never say it cant happen.

A century ago the consensus was that a big European war was unlikely due to all the interlocking alliances and treaties.
Then a political assassination triggered the first modern global conflict mainly because all the dominoes just happened to fall in the right way.

Well, happy for them some get paid for saying so…

Neither imminent nor impossible:
Me getting the euromilion jackpot
The end of the world
Losing a tooth
….

"World War III: Neither Imminent nor Impossible"

Possible, but very highly unlikely … Not impossible … the chances are almost statistically insignificant at this point. Now if there is a Nuc Arms Race in the Mid East with Iran getting operational and deployable nucs … things could change … Who is more likely to use Nucs ? China ? Russia ? The US ? islamic fanatics ? I think we know that answer. After all who goes to Paradise for killing infidels ?

Hope never happend!

Amicalement
Armand

Don't know where that myth of WWI being unlikely. Anyone who has study the period from 1854 to 1914 knows that the war was not only likely but had been put off several times due to cooler heads stepping back from the brink.

England and France had war fears several times. German went to war with France once in 1870 and came close several more times. Austria and Russia had one major war build up over the Balkans once before 1914. Russia and England came close several times. So to be honest Europe was a powder key just waiting for the spark to ignite it all. You don't train up several million soldiers if your neighbors all wish you good will.