"Russian former leader of Ukraine rebels warns of 'big war'" Topic

"Former prime minister of the self-proclamed Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) Alexander Borodai speaks during an interview with Reuters in Moscow, Russia, June 22, 2015.
Reuters/Maxim Shemetov
MOSCOW A ceasefire is likely to collapse in east Ukraine and Russia could be drawn into a "big war" to cleanse the "sore on its borders", the former leader of the region's pro-Russian separatists said.

Violence has eased but not halted in east Ukraine under what are known as the Minsk 2 agreements, reached in the Belarussian capital on Feb. 12 after an earlier ceasefire collapsed.

Alexander Borodai, a Russian citizen and former journalist for nationalist newspapers who emerged last year as prime minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DNR), said he expects the Ukrainian army to launch a new offensive…"
Full article here
link

Amicalement
Armand

Russia has caused most of the sore by constant rubbing… :-/

"…Russia will eventually lose patience…"

Laying the ground work for a Russian military occupation, perhaps?

significant part of the rebels was always for a full scale invasion and full commitment of Russian troops. It seems that there was change of plans during the year of hostilities though, and project Novorossiya is no longer a priority. Therefore, I seriously doubt that Russian army will move across the border, unless Ukraine will do something really stupid like Serbs in Bosnia years ago.

I think it was a significant part of the rebels plan, but I am still not sure that Russia had any real intention of direct and full commitment to 'Novorossiya' in eastern Ukraine – Crimea was a different story altogether – despite Putin's periodic use of the term. That seems to have been a covert and passive 'you just go for it, we are right behind you, sort of' phrase.

Therefore, I seriously doubt that Russian army will move across the border, unless Ukraine will do something really stupid like Serbs in Bosnia years ago.

The worrying thing is still the lack of commitment to the terms of the Minsk agreement by Russia. There appears to be no attempt to close down the border (full control of the border is supposed to return to Ukraine, which clearly cannot happen while a militant group is controlling the intervening land), and with the separatists seemingly continuing to attempt to drive the front line westwards it can only be a matter of time before Ukraine says enough, and strikes back. When that happens, it is bound to be a significant military force and a major conflict (even if only in a localised area).

While I don't think Ukraine would ever go so far as to attempt to ethnically cleanse the region, the perception within Russia appears to be that they are trying to do just that, which may be sufficient to bolster support for a Russian preventative force.

From rebel point of view, it is government troops and volunteer batalions of dubious reputation that are constantly shelling their cities, trying to take back the airport and blockposts, cutting off food and water supplies.
Handling of border to Ukraine was a part of Minsk agreement, but it was foreseen after constitutional reforms with decentralization in them, elections in accordance with new status as well as amnesty for those involved in the conflict.
As none of these things happened, rebels and Russia think that it is a waste to keep their part of agreement.
Rebels still acknowledged (at least officially) that these new decentralized regions will be a part of Ukraine.
Naturally the people are not happy with situation (some of the stuff became so horrible, that even the governemnt had to take actions against "Tornado" batallion, for instance.If you look at rebel sites they're also close to say enough and strike back…

Hi Barin,

Regarding that interview in The Times from the 2nd of June by Oliver Carroll, who was in the village of Shirokino. Was that unit under the fighter with the call-sign "Ostrich" identified? I have seen some reports that a battalion of the Republican Guard was stationed there.

From rebel point of view, it is government troops and volunteer batalions of dubious reputation that are constantly shelling their cities, trying to take back the airport and blockposts, cutting off food and water supplies.

And yet the latest maps indicate that it is the separatist territory that continues to have expanded from the casefire line. If they are still pushing that border westwards then any shelling is to be expected.

Full constitutional change is only scheduled to come in by the end of 2015. However I don't see how any legitimately recognised elections can take place while the border is not secure and militant groups retain control.

Again, as along the border there's plenty of regions from where government troops can shell living quarters in Donetsk, Gorlovka and dozens of smaller settlements, form rebel point of view as long as ceasefire is not enforced, the only way to prevent destruction of their cities is to push westward. No real need for governemnt to push forward if they're not planning big offensive.
Now we're coming back to who started what, or famous egg/chicken stuff.
There're certain agreements that were signed in Minsk, and these agreements have certain terms of implementation. Whether Kiev government like them or not, they should fullfill their part before demanding commitment from another side.

Nonetheless it is the separatist forces that are expanding territory. I still don't see how elections can possibly take place under the current circumstances.

Aristonicus, Ostrich was on rebel site. They don't have Republican guard units, however there're established "army" and "police" units as well as volunteer batalions. Can't find the translation of the full article now, so can't say if Ostrich was a member of any specific formations.

Government troops have National Guard, regular army (VSU), units of ministry of internal affairs and units of volunteers.

Many thanks for your threads Barin!.

Quite interesting from a first hand info.

Amicalement
Armand

Perhaps it is these ostriches:

link

Ukraine's former president Viktor Yanukovych has been speaking to Newsnight about his support of a zoo on his land.

He said: "I supported the ostriches. What's wrong with that?"

I'm surprised that I have better sources.

РЕСПУБЛИКАНСКАЯ ГВАРДИЯ ДНР
Создана на основании указа главы ДНР Захарченко от 12 января 2015г. командующим назначен Кондратов И.А., на укомплектование гвардии вероятно пущена 2-я бр*. ДНР батальоны РПА, Оплот, отряд "Пятнашка", ТБ и ряда отдельных подразделений как то СпН "Оплота", коменд.роты "Варяг" возм. др.отдельные подразделения. По некоторым источникам состоит из шести батальонно тактических групп и двух отрядов СпН РУ (танки БТГрупп возможно структурно сведены в один-два ТБ, по идее должна быть и арта), на данный момент мне достоверно известно о существовании пяти БТГр. РГ напрямую подчиняется главе ДНР и является резервом главнокомандующего ВС ДНР, то есть Захарченко.
*прим, из другой части 2-й бригады сформирована 5-я ОМБр.
1-я БТГр РГ ДНР
2-я БТГр РГ ДНР "Оплот"
3-я БТГр РГ ДНР
4-я БТГр РГ ДНР "Патриот"
5-я БТГр РГ ДНР

Republican Guard Donetsk Peoples' Republic
Created by a decree of the head of DNR Zakharchenko on 12 January 2015. Assign Kondrashov IA for staffing Guard probably based on the 2nd brigade *. DNR battalions of the Russian Orthodox Army, Oplot, detachment "tag", TB [tank battalion], and a number of individual units such as Spetsnaz "Oplot", Command company "Varyag" poss. dr.otdelnye unit. According to some sources consists of six battalion tactical groups and two Spetsnaz units RU (tanks BTGroup possible structurally composed in one or two TB, are supposed to be art), at the moment I know for certain about the existence of five BTGr [Battalion Tactical Groups]. The RG reports directly to the head of the DNR and the Commander of the Armed Forces is the reserve DNR, i.e. Zakharchenko.
* Note, another part of the 2nd Brigade formed the 5th OMBr [Separate Motor Rifle Brigade].

link: ce48.livejournal.com/3073.html

They do seem very organised for a group of rebels…

Thanks for share my friend.

Amicalement
Armand

Lots of tanks too…

youtube.com/watch?v=lZ2o0ZnH058

At full strength, 40 tanks per battalion (4 companies of 10).

2 separate tank battalions: 80
(1st Somali, 2nd Diesel)

4 Tank battalions of Motor Rifle Brigades: 160
(1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th)

6 tank companies of 2 motor Rifle Regiments: 60
(9th (forming) & 11th)

1 new tank brigade (forming): 120

over 400 just in the 1st Corps of the Peoples Militia (DNR) assuming full strength

I wonder which depot they found all those in. Probably bought them on the market.

No.. The tanks escaped their bordom in the depots in Russia and fled to the Ukrain where some kindly farmers took them in and have been caring for them and letting them play in the fields, streets and parks. Occasionally a few get out of hand and wander further west causing trouble for other Ukrainians.

From a rebel perspective to ensure safety from shelling from those opposed to their freedom I would think that they really need to keep going west to say the Med and Atlantic. Perfectly reasonable.

The tanks are on leave and will return to Russia once their leave is over.