"Taliban vs. ISIS: The Islamic State Is Doomed in Afghanistan" Topic

"The Islamic State (IS) has grown its fearsome global franchise beyond Iraq and Syria largely by convincing, inciting, or inspiring local, homegrown groups to swear allegiance to the "Caliph" Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Various groups in places like Nigeria—Boko Haram—Libya, and Southeast Asia are now affiliates of IS.

However, one powerful Islamist group has not only rejected the Islamic State but has actively fought against it—the Taliban of Afghanistan and Pakistan. And the Taliban are going to absolutely crush the Islamic State in Afghanistan. Here's why…"
Full article here
link

Amicalement
Armand

Well that's one bright spot in the whole islamists-jihadi- moslem-religious civil war and war against 21st Century humanity … I hope they have a good go at slaughtering each other. With the same barbaric predilections and fervor that they have shown in the past. In all the regions they try to oppress with their medieval mind set and techiques … May they all enjoy the 7th Century Hell they have created for themselves. Plus provide a target rich enviroment for Western Drones and CAS …

Afghanistan is the Taliban's home turf. If those upstart wannabe's in ISIS think they can just waltz in there unchallenged, well… they're about to get schooled.

Agree with you.
Seems that all who tried on AFghanistan failed.
Why not ISIS?

Amicalement
Armand

And the Taliban are going to absolutely crush the Islamic State in Afghanistan.

I don't think it's all that cut and dried. The vast majority of madrasas in Pakistan were funded by Saudi Arabian Wahhabi. ISIS follows an extreme interpretation of Wahhabism. Half the Saudi Royal family believes they can still work with ISIS. All the mullahs would have to do is call the faithful to support ISIS while at the same time al-Baghdadi recruits volunteers specifically for Afghanistan. It would be a whole new ball game.

I suspect ISIS will at least give the Tali's a run for their money, since they are very well trained, motivated, and as we've seen, ruthless.

I agree … they are both experienced forces. However, I'm giving the Talis the homefield advantage. And as noted … "others" have tried to "conquer" A'stan. It's Talis backyard. Of course, from my standpoint I hope it is a bloody conflict of severe attrition. With "Paradise" becoming full with all factions involved.

I suspect that whatever the religious cover story in Afghanistan its going to be about local factions and tribes fighting for their own interests and maybe teaming up against the outsiders?

Other jihadi movements have splintered to nothing in the past as they argue who has got the right version of islam – happened in algeria/Tunisia/morocco I always get those three mixed up. We might well see afghans v arabs but we might also get local madrassas criticising their saudi parents. Then it would get interesting. ISIS? Splitters!

… Afghanistan its going to be about local factions and tribes fighting for their own interests …

That has always been the situation in A'stan. Tribal, ethnic, cleric, warlord, etc., affiliations trump all else generally. The same can be seen thru out places in the Middle East, Africa, etc. … Just look at Iraq and Syria … No matter how much blood and treasure the West spends/spent/waste(s) on those regions they will generally always be failed, failing, about to fail states with weak gov'ts and poor corrupt leadership, etc. …

Yep, different culture; they dont especially admire our civilisation and why should they? Plus weve never really stuck to one principle in dealing with the east – unless its self interest.

You can drive a camel to water and nick its oil but you cant make it drink.

All chatter of "who will stomp who" is entertainment only. If Islam does not come up with a "unifying core" that dominates clearly over the various splinter groups, none of these current events will amount to anything more than a protracted, futile struggle for dominance. It will play itself out. This has happened many times in the past. Almost never does a unifying core get established to dominate the factions.

Will IS "caliphate" thrive or die on the vine? If it thrives, that will mean not "conquering" Astan, but converting it instead. And so on and so on. The "United States of Islam" will only happen if IS, or some equally ambitious "Muslim experiment", is successful at conversion….

We'll just have to wait and see … and try to not spend too much more $$$ … on this clearly islamic problem … That some of the factions keep trying to make it a Western problem.

Im a bit more cynical; I think its some of our factions trying to make it our problem. Horrendous though IS, Taliban etc are they have a certain level of local support and for all IS's rhetoric theyre not going to be invading Italy or the US or anywhere with a decent army and civil society. If we blunder in trying to fix what weve already broken it just plays into their "crusader" propaganda. Throwing money at the leaders of those countries buys the leader what he wants and a bit of what western companies want Im not so sure it buys what the country needs.

What we need are modern day Valentine Bakers and Glubb Pashas

Afghan politics is complicated thing. When SU troops were withdrawn, so called "coalition government" of mojaheddin waged war against former regime, defeated ANA and tried to manage the country. Ahmad Shah Masud was a leader of Pushtuns, general Doustoum was a leader of Uzbek, and Hekmatiar was official mojaheddin contact for the west. Taliban wasn't really involved in this power transition and wasn't considered a serious force. However, very soon Taliban started their own actions, resulting in sound defeat of coalition that was claiming a victory over Soviets before. It took a lot of support from Russia and Uzbekistan to keep defeated forces of mojaheddin – Doustoum was allowed to move his forces to Uzbekistan territory and recieved lots and lots of weapons, while Russia became friends with Masud.
When NATO operation in A-stan started, "Northern Alliance" forces were a significant part of the victory over Taliban…but now with Masud killed and Doustoum and Hekmatiyar dissappearing from military and political radar, we have new powers on top of tribal hatred and conflicts. Taliban itself was seen as a foreign to Afghanistan for some years…IS is even more foreign, but it doesn't mean that they would not find enemies of their enemies there. Not going to predict the situation there in a year or two.

That is the bottomline, IMO … like in Iraq. With all the different factions, warlords, clerics, tribes, ethnicies, etc., etc. … It's hard to get an effective unified government. Not to mention a government that is not corrupt, polarized, etc., etc. … And as noted, with all the $$$ and blood spent in both A'stan and Iraq, the West needs to maybe tighten their purse strings. But none-the-less, again, IMO, Drones and CAS still can be of some use. Not the prefect solution, but better than many others. Short of the regions moving into the 20th, let alone 21st Century …