"The F-35 Nightmare Could Get Even Worse" Topic

"Let's assume the Pentagon somehow comes up with enough money to pay for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. Suppose further the F-35 eventually passes all its test and evaluation milestones and the appropriate authorities make the appropriate Initial Operational Capability and Final Operational Capability declarations.

Let's imagine a future in which the various services have patiently waited long enough to finally take ownership of their respective fleets, totaling some 2400+ aircraft, allowing the Pentagon to retire the F-16, A-10, F-18 and AV-8. And maybe the F-15 and F-22, as well.

Let's also assume our allies get their stealth fighters too, replacing whatever old jets they're currently flying. While we're on a roll, why not assume our adversaries don't make any hostile moves that would require a JSF-based response before we're ready, and that no new threats or technologies emerge which would render the JSF obsolete or irrelevant…"
Full article here
link

Amicalement
Armand

great article, for bringing up a very clever counter argument to standardization in military procurement.

worth a read… (applies to other systems and is not a bash the F35… article)

The real problem is that the decision makers "have seen the light." They went full throttle for a certain solution and now they have to keep grinning and pretend everything is going to plan. I'm afraid it will take a major embarrassment or three before they will finally squirrel their way out of it by saying "The F35 is perfect in every way, admired the world over as the best plane ever made, but we need to make a few tweaks to make it really perfect …"

It does make a good point about why a 'do everything with one platform' solution DOES have pitfalls!

-Will

Sounds like the F-111 all over again. IMHO.

Glad you enjoyed the article my friend. (smile)

Amicalement
Armand

Could?

Anything that can go wrong, will, at the worst possible moment.

Design maxim for the F-35 Coot.

Honestly, just give a Eurofighter RATO capabilities, and you'll at least have a somewhat functional carrier jet.

Same arguments were made against the F-22 and the Osprey, but now they fly combat missions.

What does this mean? Just that if we throw enough money at a problem, we can make it go away. The Russians feel the same way -but they don't have near as much money, nor rich allies.

Problem in the future is that China will have as much, if not more money to spend than the USA.

I seriously doubt a scenario wherein the F-35 will be "the only game in town." We did not retire all of our Eagles and Vipers when the Raptor had to be grounded.

No way no how will the Pentagon not have an "insurance policy" in the event the F-35 experiences a problem that requires a temporary grounding of the entire fleet.

This "nightmare scenario" requires whatever problem to affect the common portion of the F35 fleet. Sure, about 75-80% of all the birds IS common, but I suspect that the F35C will have separate grounding issues than the F35B, which will have separate grounding issues than the F35A. And honestly that either the -B or -C will be the most troublesome over the lifetime. Probably the -B, since it's the most mechanically complex, but the -Cs will get beat to death by carrier launches and landings.

What does this mean? Just that if we throw enough money at a problem, we can make it go away. The Russians feel the same way -but they don't have near as much money, nor rich allies.

Problem in the future is that China will have as much, if not more money to spend than the USA.

Assuming that they can keep to their current economic growth rate, China is still about 10 years out from having as much money as the US. But since their current growth rate is showing signs of being unsustainable, if not utter horseapples, I'm going to guesstimate more like 15-20 years before that actually happens. But it WILL happen, do not doubt for a second that the PRC desires for their entire population to have the same standard of living as the US, if only for bragging rights.

China's growth and rising living standards also mean that she will face the same pressures and societal demands as we do. She won't be immune to the same "guns versus butter" debate, so I'm not overly concerned.

@28mm: Given that China has roughly 4x the population of the US (though I expect that to reduce somewhat), they will be able to afford a much larger military than the US.

True, though it also depends on whether their retirees will outnumber their young.

Given China's economy, I doubt they will be able to afford all the toys they want. Population size has little to do with economic strength.

This is the ‘monoculture' argument of agriculture. It is certainly a valid argument there, but standardisation has well known advantages too.

Look at the bright side. When Isis captures a bunch of F-35s, nobody has to worry about anything

Rumor has it they're considering doubling or tripling production in the near term, even though many of the bugs haven't been worked out, in order to avoid all the questions being posed during the annual reviews, which have proved to be quite embarrassing to the military, program managers, and the manufacturer.

Talk about a major CF.

On the bright side, apparently the Chinese are working hard to copy our poor design, from all the plans they've hacked over the internet, so at least we have that going for us.