"Russian Military Exercise Doubles in Size" Topic

Now, apparently, 80,000 Russian troops, and 220 aircraft are involved in military exercises, which means they've essentially doubled in size:

link

Somehow, I get the feeling that we will be witnessing some sort of Spring Offensive/Surprise, soon.

against whom? seriously

Have a look at the American bases growth over the last twenty years…

Keep posting Mako, you got my support if it matters.

I think this is more posturing following the 1 year annexation of Crimeia, not the start of a spring offensive. Putin has been in the news lately for how Russia handled the Annexation and he's maximizing his press opportunity with this action. I think Russia is still to weak to advertise an invasion a head of time – surprise and mass has been Putin's MO.

You can avoid fights by knowing potential belligerents and their motives. Professionals have discussions on snippets like this all the time, it's not war-mongering (my words) it's observation and understanding.

Too much vodka maybe.

I find your personal attack to be unwarranted, Khusrau.

I was merely pointing out the fact that Russia has doubled the size of its military exercises, since I suspect some wargamers may be interested in hypothetical tabletop scenarios that can be derived from them.

You can bet NATO is certainly studying them with interest, and a little trepidation, as well, especially given Russia's surprise invasions of various countries since WWII, e.g Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Afghanistan, Georgia, Crimea, and Eastern Ukraine.

Notice a pattern here?

Just posturing. Putin likes to do things big time in order to intimidate the EU and NATO. He's got the Germans cowed, but hopefully other nations like France, UK, Poland, the Scandinavian countries and even the US will stand up to him.

Russia knows it cannot win a war against Europe & the USA, but Putin knows that if he can scare everyone enough, they will allow his transgressions.

smart money is on Poland

Somehow, I get the feeling that we will be witnessing some sort of Spring Offensive/Surprise, soon.

Possible, or it could be simply that the Russians are holding larger scale military exercises for training and coordination/combined arms purposes.

It's a legitimate concern by Mako11, at least as legitimate as Kim Jong-Un's concern that the joint large scale US-South Korea exercises held each year were precursors to an invasion of North Korea.

The point is, belligerence is "in the eye of the beholder."

It sure looks ridiculous if the enemy does not know he is the enemy and even more if he thinks you are the enemy.

I concur with your first point, 28mm, though NATO isn't conducting provocative jet flights around Russia with their transponders turned off, and their exercises (in response to those of Russia's, I might add), are rather embarrassing at best, in terms of forces available by comparison.

Also, while NK did sink a SK corvette not too long ago, killing many personnel I might add, at least they haven't invaded anyone recently, unlike Russia.

Finally, there are only a handful of US troops participating in the SK exercises (a few thousand of them), compared to 80,000 Russian troops on exercise, so the two are not even close to being similar (especially when one considers that we haven't invaded anyone in the last 12 months, and annexed their territory, either).

Therefore, I think it is pretty clear to most reasonable people, which side is the aggressor, especially when they keep mentioning how many nukes they have, and how "powerful" they are.

A shame about Angela, but I understand she was raised in East Germany during the Cold War, if the reports I've read are accurate.

I would have thought her position would be more like those from Poland, who lived under Soviet rule as well, but she seems to be more tolerant of their views and provocative/dangerous actions.

smart money is on Poland

That would not go well for the Russians.

Because the US would have absolutely no choice but to deploy troops into a shooting war under Article 5.

Because once the US goes back on it's word on a major treaty like NATO, every nation that had been pushing for a military alliance/protectorate with the US will plan again.

Japan would have no choice but to re-arm because the US is not holding up to it's end of the bargain. And that would set off a massive military rearmament campaign across the Pacific.

China would vote against the Russians in the UN Security council, because China doesn't want a re-armed Japan.

Ordinarily, I'd agree with your Lion, but given current circumstances, I suspect a US intervention is at best 50:50, especially if some event(s) occur in the smaller, Baltic nations, given the following examples:

1. 100% pullout of Iraq, despite generals advising against that, and a former President too;
2. red line that wasn't in Syria;
3. agreement with US, UK, and Russia to protect Ukraine's territorial sovereignty when they gave up nukes, and when that agreement was broken, the best we could do is provide MREs and some first aid supplies;
4. nothing really being done about China's moves in the South China sea;
5. Benghazi attack is/was billed as a "crime", and not a terrorist attack;
6. Fort Hood terrorist attack is/was "workplace violence";
7. and, threats to stop supporting Israel at the UN.

Given that, I believe the Saudis have already made the decision to match Iran in any nuclear escalation, and Japan appears to be leaning towards rearmament, though I'm not sure they've made the decision to really go full-bore on that, yet.

Also, Egypt is falling back into the Russian sphere of influence, since the current admin. is still supporting the Muslim Brotherhood, which even the Egyptians label a terrorist organization.

I suspect if the Baltic nations are "Crimea'd" with little green men, or others, we would not intervene militarily, on their behalf, especially if Russia again uses covert measures, and denies everything.

After all, that would be a "police action", like we are currently involved with around the globe. We might send a few FBI detectives to help investigate any "incidents" in the Baltic states, and perhaps try any offenders in open court, like we plan to do over Benghazi, if they can locate more than the one guy we are holding, now.

The only "Spring Offensive" here is a propaganda and psychological one. Despite what some here mught think – or even hope for – Putin isn't a complete wit and knows exactly where any serious action against Finland or a NATO member will lead. And I strongly suspect that the "smart money" thinks the same.

A Russian invasion of Syria might be interesting. It might get Turkey to start acting like a NATO ally again. And Putin can make sure the Caucasus pipelines keep running.

Seriously, if the U.S. is sending troops and trainers to Ukraine, in Putin's mind the U.S. has already crossed the line in the sand. And it will be all about ego on both sides.

I never expected WW3 to start in the Ukraine (a non member of NATO), but I guess it's as good a place as any.

Dan

Manley,

Why would Russian action against Finland lead to something as big as action against NATO? It would be very similar to action against, say, Ukraine or Georgia, wouldn't it? After all, Finland was once part of the Empire (not the Red one, but the previous), wasn't it?

Honestly, I think the real point of worry right now is the Baltic states--weak enough, with barely any on-the-ground NATO presence, and having some significant Russian ethnic populations so that a Sudetenland claim can occur, just like in Ukraine (and South Ossetia and…).

Honestly, Putin is the new Hitler (maybe not with the same genocidal interest, but in terms of the kind of outlook on the world scene, yes).

And for those that just say, "Well, he's just protecting and looking out for Russian interests, etc." keep in mind, so was Hitler. And look how wonderfully that turned out.

Rob

Yes, I find it hard to believe that NATO would defend all of Finland, or bits of it.

Again, our CIC sees "terrorist" attacks as a police matter, not a military one (see #5 and #6 above, as evidence, not to mention all of the Guantanamo detainee releases), so, if "little green, or gray, or other camo.'d colors of men" show up in the Baltic states, and start causing trouble, that will be a matter for the FBI to investigate, after the fact, assuming the region is safe enough to do that, at some later date.

Last Spring, Putin took over Crimea, and parts of Eastern Ukraine, even though many thought he wouldn't.

I don't see much stopping him from continuing on with his present course, since he could care less about sanctions. If anything, I suspect those just spur him on to commit further aggression.

Hofrichter,

Its an opinion based on my first hand observations. Finland is almost as much a de facto member of NATO as Sweden, and they are up to their armpits in NATOness. As an example the various NATO teams and working groups in which I work and have led have included the Finns as an integral part at all levels.

I certainly hope you are correct, David.

Georgia had troops in Iraq when the Russian invasion started, so cooperating with US or NATO forces does not seem to be provide any kind of protection. If you aren't a signatory, you don't get any protection. Just sayin'.

Joint operations or the like can help with coordination if BOTH parties are attacked by a common foe, but not a sign of one side coming to the other's aid if only one party is attacked.

Mostly because people do not seem to learn from history.

Rob

3. agreement with US, UK, and Russia to protect Ukraine's territorial sovereignty when they gave up nukes

Which did not actually require any military assistance should the Ukraine's territorial sovereignty be violated, unlike Article 5.

I suspect that because of the US's non-reaction to the Ukraine agreement, any new treaties with the US will include language requiring the US to deploy forces should the other nation be attacked. I know *I* sure as hell would require a mandatory military assistance clause if I was a foreign nation entering into an agreement with the US!

With Putin being out of the public eye for a while, you have to wonder if his health is failing. There are strong pro-Communist leaders in Russia that want to restore the USSR. We could be seeing Putin starting to go down that track.

A strong response should be shown by NATO, especially the European countries. Anything short will show Russia that the Europeans countries are not interested in preventing a Russian grab.