"How Japan can Defeat China" Topic

This is a good article, with a decent plan for Japan to be able to defeat the Chinese Navy, should war break out between the two nations:

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It can't.

Those aren't complete plans for defeating China. They are strategic plans for preventing China from invading the Home Islands.

China can and will isolate Japan via ballistic missile bombardment and overwhelm their air defenses in a few weeks. Then they will destroy Japanese ports and ability to get resupplied by the USA & other allies. At that point they can be systematically reduced to the point of surrender. It won't be as brutal or bloody as WWII because Japan won't be able to handle the types of civilian losses that WWII/Imperial Japan was able to. They will capitulate once it is demonstrated that they can no-longer carry out an adequate defense.

Remember that WWII was won by the USA's manufacturing might, it was more than the rest of the world combined… guess who controls most of the world's manufacturing might nowadays?

Interesting read, but a lot of "ifs"

The British Empire was also the industrial super-giant of its day. Seen it lately, have you?

Yes. There was Britain (and germany), then the USA (Japan was a far 2nd), and now it is China's turn.

Notice the change in power and territory each country has gained/lost over the decades?

At the 11th hour Japan will surely be saved by schoolgirls commanding giant robots.

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All kidding aside, China will have to wait until the declining USA declines even further into impotence (unless something changes to turn things around), and if Japan rearms to a significant degree they might deter Chinese aggression. That is even if such a war would be considered in China's interests. What would be the purpose? Revenge for the 2nd Sino-Japanese War seems far-fetched.

IMO – China is a threat to watch out for but is internally very weak – almost on its last legs. All the sabre rattling is designed to deflect attention from its internal problems. It could not sustain a long war with heavy losses.

We could easily see them overplay their hand and end up in a skirmish with Japan or one of the South China Sea countries – but the US has too much at stake to allow China to go to war. Despite recent advances the Chinese military is still not a able to face the US – which it would have to do if it attacked Japan in this manner.

Halifax you're right – Japanese behaviour and treatment of Chinese was appalling and does account for a lot of residual anti-Japanese feeling – without condoning it (being from a Anglo-Chinese family)

Interesting that from the above China is on its last legs and the USA is declining and impotent!

Internally weak, last legs? Ever spend any time in China or studying Chinese politics, society or history? I've been working and travelling in China since the late 1980's.

China isn't internally weak, they are extremely nationalistic (I'd say fanatical) and they feel that this is the century for China to regain its dominance in the world, economically, militarily and in leadership. The Chinese Communist party has a 91% satisfaction level at the national level (while only 61% at the local levels). In general, the people of China are "happy", because their standard of living is visibly improving every decade.

There are still many who remember the suffering from WWII as well as the disasters of the communist "great Leap Forward" and Cultural Revolution eras, they like today better. Starting at the elementary school level, they are taught the humiliation of partition and colonialism of the past and vow to never let this happen again. I have seen instances of this anger come to the surface.

Every country has problems, and China will have theirs, but don't count on the ChiComs going away in our lifetimes.

Hey, I'm no fan of China, I prefer democracy, however I try to understand what is actually happening there.

Starting at the elementary school level, they are taught the humiliation of partition and colonialism of the past and vow to never let this happen again. I have seen instances of this anger come to the surface.
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Yes – China was the West's football for a long while (and Japans too) – that has still left its mark on Chinese idenity – I liked the quote from the time of the Taiping Wars by a Chinese diplomat to Queen Vic – 'have you no conscience' or similar – RN in those days forcing them to accept imports of opium, not seizing them!

Good points there cwlinsj.

I don't really put much store in approval ratings in a country like China though. I look at the democracy movements in Hong Kong and elsewhere and the anger at the 'princeling' generation – the grandchildren of Mao's contemporaries who hold power without having earned it and are corrupt to the core. What we see is but the tip of the iceberg. Those in power cannot be complacent but I don't count on any imminent change of system in China. It's a one party police state and they are STABLE.

It is an oddly irrational behaviour pattern however – aggressive jockeying for position in the South China Sea and challenging Japan over its appalling attitude to history even though it is decades away from being able to fight a large scale war.

China's rulers are I think trying to exploit non-existent external threats in order to better control their own people. Hence the nationalistic appeals – which as you say are built up from elementary school.

There are those on the political right in Japan and the US who try to inflate the threats from China – and while I don't discount the possibility of a skirmish and bloodshed China is not in any position to go to war. Their armed forces are actually quite modest considering the borders they'd have to defend and 80% or their equipment is obsolete anyway.

I believe in China's satisfaction with their national govt. They are proud of how China became a Global Power in 20-25years. Conversely, they hate local govt. Because they can see the corruption.

Incidentally, this is pretty much the opposite of how Americans feel about local vs national govt. Another example of why East & West don't see things eye to eye.

I was rather surprised by recent findings about general happiness in China, but this is also correct.

Sure, China is screwed-up in so many ways, But the Communist Party isnt going to fall and the country will keep growing stronger over the next 50 years. They'll continue to make mistakes as well.

I just don't accept these statistics reflect the reality.

91%?? Improbable to say the least. I suspect it is a fake result. The 61% for local government is a way to scare this level of the party so they don't get too greedy/craven.

Again – I just don't think such polls are conducted fairly, monitored or cross referenced. Furthermore, Chinese may be very proud and positive when talking to an outsider – it is an Asian 'face' thing and they know they are being monitored too. What they say in private or think in their hearts is another matter entirely.

The Chinese Government knows this too. They know that as soon as they open the door one inch the flood will pour through. Sabre rattling is another way to keep the populous distracted. China cannot gain anything by force in the region. The threat of force – maybe. China will bully, threaten and try gain advantage but it won't start anything except by accident.

I'd easily believe the satisfaction statistics and its all about constantly improving standards of living. Put yourself in the other guy's shoes and you can see why the CCP is really popular.

In the West more people are falling into poverty in China the opposite is true and the Chinese know it.

I well remember how members of the Chinese Diaspora would stage demonstrations against the Chinese Communist Party that hasn't happened for at least twenty years. Now they are back in the fold.

II have no way of checking the actual figures, but will believe the general thrust of the satisfaction ratings.

The Party has been successful in raising living standards, and is safe enough while it continues to do that. Big country, big problems. but nobody is rocking the boat hard enough to topple it over at the moment.

What happens in Hong Kong will stay in Hong Kong. it is largely irrelevant to the Mainland population. Nearly all of the online comments I have seen supporting HK are written in traditional Chinese (used only in Taiwan and HK). Nearly all the comments in simplified Chinese are anti-HK. Most do not talk about the issues involved, but just bang on about the upstarts from the south needing to realise they are part of China.

Between making Mandarin compulsory from kindergarten, other creeping changes to the education system, and a steady influx of mainlanders into HK, it will be fully digested in a generation or two.

China unquestionably wants a more prominent place in the world.But I would not assume that includes wanting territorial expansion beyond reclaiming Taiwan. China is 94% Han, and they like to keep it that way. I do not think they want to actually rule over more foreigners, just be top dog.

As someone pointed out today about Putin's satisfaction rating, what are you going to do, say you don't like him, and get beat up, sent to the gulag, or worse?

I suspect as in the Russian case, the Chinese are similarly hampered from speaking freely, due to fear of possible repercussions from doing that, so of course their "satisfaction" levels are unusually high.

Putin is actually very popular in Russia and if you want to know why look up mortality rates there post the fall of communism. He is seen as rescuing the country from the anarchy of the oligarchs.

It might be comforting to dismiss the popularity of governments in China or Russia but as a basis for analysis it is no help at all.

As long as the Party continues to increase the standard of living of the people in China, there won't be major threats to the Party.

This doesn't mean that there are no pressing issues for the Party to deal with. Pollution issues, Uighur unrest, and rampant corruption are all threats to the continued rule of the Party.

I honestly hope that Xi's anti-corruption campaign is successful. And China is going to be in deep trouble if they don't fix the pollution.

The biggest social issue I see in China is the remnants of the One Child Policy. There are a LOT of men that have absolutely no chance of finding a Chinese wife, because there are very, very few women in their age demographic. The "unwanted" female babies that weren't aborted were abandoned and adopted by Americans.

Socially, China is going to see massive turmoil when there are no grandchildren to take care of the grandparents. Immortality is having a son, and then a grandson, to carry on the family name. And all of a sudden, that's going away.

'The biggest social issue I see in China is the remnants of the One Child Policy. There are a LOT of men that have absolutely no chance of finding a Chinese wife, because there are very, very few women in their age demographic.'

This is indeed a huge and looming problem, or rather two problems. And it is spilling out all over Asia too as 'brides' are purchased or kidnapped from even poorer countries bordering China. China's demographic bubble won't subside for several more generations.

The one-child policy was always a time-bomb, but it had a longer fuse than Mao's 'have as many children as you can' policy which preceded it. Just another way in which Mao was China's worst enemy.

I wonder if they can reach out to the Diaspora? Unlikely though, the Chinese tend to be capable so the incentives would have to be substantial. Social engineering in whatever form is the only way out.