"8,000 Ukrainian Soldiers Fighting For Their Lives In ..." Topic

…The Debaltseve Pocket.

"Dispatch: up to 8,000 Ukrainians fighting for their lives in what the Russian-backed separatists are calling the Debaltseve pocket as a midnight ceasefire deadline passes

It was a little after midday when the volunteer-driven ambulance pulled into the yard of Artemivsk city hospital and disgorged half a dozen wounded soldiers.

Their camouflage stained with blood and their faces caked with the dirt of battle, these were just the latest casualties of a battle that has only grown fiercer since a peace agreement was signed in Minsk this week.

Thirty miles to the south-east, up to 8,000 Ukrainians were fighting for their lives in what the Russian-backed separatists are calling the Debaltseve pocket…"

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Full article here
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Amicalement
Armand

Another agreement not worth the paper it was written on, assuming some actually bothered to do that, and sign it.

Separatists claim that Debaltseve is theirs, because they have it encircled, so not part of the agreement and they are entitled to keep shooting at it…

"Of course we can open fire (on Debaltseve). It is our territory," Eduard Basurin, a rebel commander, told Reuters. "The territory is internal, ours. And internal is internal. But along the line of confrontation there is no shooting."

They are currently not allowing OSCE observers to enter.

Poroshenko says (depiste separatist claims of encirclement) the Ukrainian soldiers there were resupplied with ammunition.

This is not a black and situation, folks. Before Maidan, half the population of Ukraine looked East and half looked West. Nowadays, the only change is that the Western part is in control and the eastern vote has been diluted by the loss of Crimea and ??? and the populations that moved to Russia. Look how quickly some (not all) Ukrainian units defected in Crimea. The bloodshed is making peace difficult and is alienating the "Russian" Ukrainian populations.

What does that have to do with the cease fire?

[DPR leader, Aleksander Zakharchenko,] said that rebels won't release a large group of Ukrainian troops, who have been entrapped near the village of Debaltsevo since early February. "Their every attempt to break out will be suppressed," Zakharchenko is cited by RIA-Novosti news agency.

"Please pay attention to the fact that there isn't a word about Debaltsevo [entrapment] in Minsk agreements. That means that Ukraine has simply betrayed those 5,000 people in Debaltsevo trap," Zakharchenko said, stressing that no negotiations about the entrapment is currently underway with Kiev. "Any attempt of the Ukrainian armed forces to unblock Debaltsevo will be regarded as violation of the Minsk agreements, such attempts will be suppressed, adversaries will be eliminated," he added.

I assume there was no word in the agreement as it is only the separatists who consider it 'theirs' without question…?

"Basurin [Defense Ministry spokesman of Donetsk People's Republic, Eduard Basurin] said that the Ukrainian troops near Debaltsevo won't be shelled, but won't be released as well, with surrender being the only option.

So although Minsk states all prisoners to be released, they will start by taking more prisoners…

There is actually not that much evidence for any kind of popular support for the rebels amongst the Russian speaking population.

I think I'm right in saying most of the Russian-speaking areas didn't rebel – just the ones which, co-incidentally, are ebst palced to get Russian help.

My Russian-speaking Ukrainian friends in East Ukraine certainly didn't want a war. They all told me that those starting the war came from across the border, and were not local.
IMHO Putin wants the East Ukraine regardless of what he may say to anybody in the west, and the war will continue until he either gets it or he gets a bloody nose. The cease fire is just a lot of hot air as certain rebels will continue fighting on & a lot of innocents are dying due to Russia's invasion.

That would agree from comments of friends I have seen. There is very little animosity from west to east (although there does seem to be some perceived but unfounded belief of animosity generated in the east that the west hates them, however on the whole it seems to be certain individuals rather than an overall generalisation).

Yes Stu, the 'regions that rebelled' did not actually rebel at all (see the pro-Ukrainian string of people around Mariupol, in Donetsk, who made it very clear they did not want to be part of any separatist movement, but were attacked anyway. Equally Kramatorsk in northern Donetsk seems to have shown no real signs of wanting to break away, but is a stated target of the separatists as 'theirs by right'). Other nearby regions (Zaporozhia, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkiv) have shown very little sign of wanting to break away. There have been small protests, but not really more than one would expect and on the whole they have been peaceful. Even the unfortunate fire in Odessa was at toyed to be turned into something else by an anti-government image; on the contrary to blockading Russians inside and trying to burn them alive, it appears that the fire was caused accidentally by someone inside failing to throw a molotov outside, and in fact Ukrainians were in the forefront of rescue attempts. There are other agendas in play here.

The cease fire is just a lot of hot air as certain rebels will continue fighting on

Indeed, they have stated as much, and Zakharchenko has openly stated that he intends to have all of Donetsk and Lughansk by politics or militarily.

That said, certain right wing elements are equally outspoken about fighting on, and have even been vocal about winning the war then turning on Kyiv.

What we are actually seeing is an insurgent movement within the territory of Ukraine. It was originally led by Russians (Borodai, Girkin/Strelkov – a former insurgent stated that Strelkov was 'cleansed' from the post by FSB due to insufficient compliance with Kremlin policy for the region) before being handed over to "a person from Donetsk". There seems to be no history on Zakharchenko prior to appointment by Borodai. It has been perpetuated by an influx of foreign nationals, mainly Russian.

Mysteriously claims are that Kyiv is being led by neo-nazi nationalists, yet Zakharchenko stated that Ukraine leaders are "miserable representatives of the great Jewish people". The logic seems… disturbed.

Mariupol seems an odd target. The civilians there seem clearly against being part of any break away republic, and a land bridge would require taking not only Donetsk but the next two regions as well.

I am still of the opinion that what we are seeing is low key criminal elements elevated to positions of power by opportunity, and supported there by a misguided Russian influence that is believing it's own propaganda. It is the Russian military influence that is managing to hold the groups together and coordinate larger scale strategic actions, but without which we would be seeing smaller regional conflicts as individual warlords competed for control.

Some of the problem appears to be with the lines on this map:

In most cases the two troop withdrawal lines are parted or only just overlap, but around Debaltseve they clearly overlap.

The buffer zones are the areas in which heavy artillery should be removed, the intention being to take them out of range of contested civilian areas.

Not sure what the troop withdrawal lines are intended to achieve, as there doesn't appear to be much of a benefit to withdrawing to those lines (especially where they do overlap!)

There's a fantastic PBS Frontline special on the Ukraine conflict that you can watch on Netflix right now. They interview one of the leaders of the rebels in the East who admits that the Russians paid them cash (an amount per person) to riot. They also talk to the leader of the Donetsk separatists and it's clear that he's taking orders from others.

It's pretty eye-opening.

There has been some infighting among the 'separatists', in particular some of the more 'colorfull' volunteer units have cause problems and at least one troublesome commander/warlord met a hasty demise in what seems to have been a very professional ambush. Others have reportedly been disarmed and sent back over the border, IIRC this happend to one of the Cossack formations.

Mariupol is first and foremost a cornerstone in the Ukrainian defensive line, capture it and you can not only out flank a line that has proven hard to take by frontal assault so far but you can also push the front line a good distance towards the Dnieper and the Crimea. However Mariupol is a hard nut to crack as there are some very defensive positions on the fringe of the city. The huge steel works has gained the nickname "Mordor" due to it's imposing bulk and strenght.

you can also push the front line a good distance towards the Dnieper and the Crimea

But as you can see from these maps, Mariupol doesn't give them Crimea – it's still a very long way to go.

This also gives a perspective of the size of the actual conflict region (essentially just the Russian border in the east as far as Donetsk and Lughansk, so perhaps just over 1/3 of the territory of those two furthest oblasts) when compared to the country overall.

My wife comes from Rivne (top left) which is where the infamous Right Sector 'leader' Sashko Bily was shot, but her family is from Poltava, which borders Kharkiv in the east.

My Russian-speaking Ukrainian friends in East Ukraine certainly didn't want a war. They all told me that those starting the war came from across the border, and were not local.
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But i think the problem is that whoever started it I suspect now that a lot of people won't be willing to live under the central govt again having been shelled etc. Problem is that getting a true majority opinion of those in the separatist area is going to be nigh on impossible – are they in effect occupied by the Russians and their local allies and only waiting for the day when they can ring the church bells and welcome back in the liberating Ukrainian army or do they never want to see Ukrainian troops again

"But as you can see from these maps, Mariupol doesn't give them Crimea – it's still a very long way to go".

Give them time, comrade.

Besides, it's still Winter, and everyone knows fighting season kicks of in the Spring.

Certainly the shelling has not helped opinions, but the other choice was to allow a foreign insurgent force to simply take over.

Will be a case of how they are able to appoint blame.

The Ukrainian president says his forces are making an "organised" withdrawal from the embattled town of Debaltseve. Mr Poroshenko said 80% of Ukraine's troops had left on Wednesday morning, with more to follow.

Seems a prudent move from a couple of points.

1. It was turning into a war of attrition that they were not going to win, ultimately costing them one soldier at a time. While they allegedly had a suppy route open, it was going to be a major fight to keep it.

2. The separatists were not going to back down, using more and more heavy weaponry to simply pound them into submission. For them it is across a major rail network between Donetsk and Lughansk so of serious strategic importance.

3. It was a sticking point for the ceasefire, so by conceding some ground it may enable the ceasefire to go ahead. Problem will now be getting them both to withdraw all heavy weaponry from the region.

Russia's foreign minister said Ukrainian forces had been encircled and were forced to battle their way out.

"I'm reckoning that common sense will prevail," said Sergei Lavrov as he urged the rebels to provide troops who surrendered with food and clothes.

Difficult to tell at this stage if it was a strategic withdrawal (with weapons), a partial surrender or a complete rout, but it does sound as if they have been extracted.

"This morning the Ukrainian armed forces together with the National Guard completed an operation for a planned and organised withdrawal from Debaltseve." Eyewitnesses saw dozens of tanks and columns of weary Ukrainian troops retreating from Debaltseve on Wednesday.

Looks like they were allowed to extract with weapons.

Mr Lavrov told reporters that the rebel attack in Debaltseve did not violate the ceasefire agreement, because the town was part of the rebel-held area at the time the peace deal was signed.

So presumably he will concede that everything not under rebel control at this time is not their territory.

Merkel's only contribution to the process has been a disappointing naivete.

They do appear to have made a fairly relaxed and fully equipped withdrawal through Artemivsk, which is on the Debaltseve/Kramatorsk road, just up from Klynove (which the separatists claim to control).

What's the tracked vehicle at the end of this footage? Looks to be MT-LB chassis with a turret?

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Geoff

Could this be a 2S1 SPG rear view from a difficult angle?

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There are MT-LBu and 2S1 Gvozdika.

Ah, yes

A few units have been able to withdraw with few om no kisses exceptionellt for equipped abandoned due to lack of transport or full. Other have been rusning a gauntlet of russin fire and lost Heavily and some units are eventuellt reported as overrun and captured. Hard to get a god grip on the situation exceptionellt that it is very bad indeed for the Ukrainas.

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I can inform now that this morning the Armed Forces of Ukraine together with the National Guard completed the operation on the planned and organized withdrawal of a part of units from Debaltseve. We can say that 80% of troops have been already withdrawn. We are waiting for two more columns. Warriors of the 128th brigade, parts of units of the 30th brigade, the rest of the 25th and the 40th battalions, Special Forces, the National Guard and the police have already left the area.

We were asserting and proved: Debaltseve was under our control, there was no encirclement, and our troops left the area in a planned and organized manner with all the heavy weaponry: tanks, APCs, self-propelled artillery and vehicles.

Commanders are working with their personnel. We are waiting for one more column, one more company. Having withdrawn the combat patrol posts to the new defense line, we have preserved the bridgehead for the defense of the state.

It is a strong evidence of combat readiness of the Armed Forces and efficiency of the military command. I can say that despite tough artillery and MLRS shelling, according to the recent data, we have 30 wounded out of more than 2,000 warriors. The information is being collected and may be clarified.

Internal stability will not be undermined by the battalions "everything is lost" and "this is the end", lies about a lot of soldiers murdered yesterday, encircled roadblocks and Ukrainian warriors without ammunition, food and water. It is not a Ukrainian scenario. I am confident that those who were spreading it expected a different result. Fortunately, we successfully completed the operation and will have an opportunity to further defend the state.

Doesn't sound like abandoned equipment running a gauntlet of fire. Footage of withdrawing troops seems to show them in good spirits and with both small arms and heavy equipment intact.

The media war goes on.

[Paraphrased] RT correspondant says 'Ukrainian commanders have left "thousands" of their soldiers in Debaltseve "highly demoralised, low on ammunition and low on supplies. "They had little sleep and their situation is quite desperate," he adds of the soldiers.'

Rossiya 24 presenter stating "The commanders of the units encircled near Debaltseve have fled, leaving their fighters to the mercy of fate"

This again appears to be media for the domestic front, as reports of relatively large scale extractions as a seemingly leisurely pace, and with fullly intact equipment and personal weapons, continue (with footage).

However the Ukrainian press seems not to blame the people of Donetsk region, or the Ukrainian Government for being unable to take large scale aggressive and decisive military action, but on the (Russian and Russian-backed) Separatists in general, and Putin in particular.

Ukrainian MP Oleksy Honcharenko writes, "What happened in Debaltseve is a crime against humanity. The ceasefire was not observed even for one hour at Debaltseve. Putin is willing to sacrifice on the altar of the 'Russian World' the lives of thousands of Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine whom he allegedly came to protect".

Journalist Viktor Tregubov believes 'Mr Putin's real aim is to sow dissent in Ukrainian ranks and fatally weaken the country's pro-Western leadership.'

"What I'm scared of the most is a coup attempt, more than any problems on the front," he writes on his Facebook page. "Putin is staking everything on it, more than on any military victory. Any further discord and the enemy will be in Kiev," he warns, "and no-one in Europe will mind because it will look like the best option for them. And no heroism will save us."

Yury Dobronravin – a widely-followed IT engineer who took part in the Maidan protests and has spent time on the front with Ukrainian troops – is even more pessimistic.

"Putin is preparing the next stage of destroying Ukraine for today or tomorrow, which is a riot that will turn into a coup," he writes on Facebook. "All the hotheads must understand that a coup is the ONLY scenario for Putin's victory in this war – his LAST chance to save Russia from collapsing."

At the moment the separatist movement is uniting the weknesses of all groups – the enemy of my enemy – but radical right wing groups have expressed disatissfaction with a more easy going Government and stated that once the war is over they intend to return to Kyiv.

Others are arguing that by delaying the withdrawal from Debaltseve Ukraine was able to ensure that >its Western partners "registered the fact that Russia violated the Minsk agreements". As a result of the continued fighting in Debaltseve, Mr Putin has left US President Barack Obama "without his last argument against supplying Ukraine with defensive and lethal weapons".

Difficult to say, as there is still considerable resistance in both the EU and US about getting directly (lethal weapons) involved, and it is not as clear cut to say that only one side was fighting on, or who shot first. OSCE reports frequently state firing heard, but unable to say if it was incoming or outgoing. BBC reports showing separatist artillery firing are generally met with "we are just firing back".

A classif example of propaganda to put a good face on defeat that is contradicted by reports from the front. A Swedish newsteam in Artemivsk decscribe a diffrent pittoreska as exhausted and wounded Soldats strongly into toan. Large number of wounded arrived at the hospital during their shorts visit before traveling down the road towards the pocket. The Ny Times report also paints a grim pittoreska as do reports coming from social media i.e god sources like Conflict Reporter and others.

The NY Times article
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The order to retreat was kept secret until the last minute, and soldiers were told to prepare in 10 minutes and pile into the beds of troop transport trucks, according to Albert Sardaryen, a 22-year-old medic who made the journey.

The trucks lined up on the edge of town, Mr. Sardaryen said, while tanks and tracked vehicles formed lines on either side of the truck convoy to try to shield the soldiers. The column drove through farm fields rather than use a main road that had been mined, and the trucks kept their headlights off to make them harder to spot.

The column came under attack almost immediately, he said, and trucks started breaking down and colliding in the dark. By dawn, the column was strung out on the plain and taking fire from all sides.
Continue reading the main story
Continue reading the main story

"They were shooting with tanks, rocket propelled grenades and sniper rifles," and firing at the disintegrating column with rockets, he said. Dead and wounded soldiers were left on the snowy fields because there were too many of them to carry once the trucks were hit.

"We stabilized them, applied tourniquets, gave them pain killers and tried to put them in a place with better cover," Mr. Sardaryen said of the wounded. Later, a Ukrainian unit from outside the encirclement drove in to try to retrieve the wounded, he said.

Mr. Sardaryen said he ran on foot for the final four miles or so. Many of the soldiers who made it out also did so on foot, though some trucks made it all the way through, he said.

Does seem to depend what you read.

"We should have pulled out earlier," one weary soldier told AFP bitterly. Nearby, dozens of tanks, armed vehicles and trucks carrying hundreds of troops rumbled along the snow-covered road.

In government-held territory, despite the fatigue and the confusion of the retreat, some of those who made it out of Debaltseve remained defiant in the face of defeat.

"Glory to Ukraine!" a soldier shouted at a crowd of local residents who had gathered to watch their retreating army arrive.

It seems the soldiers (allegedly as many as 8000 in a town that had a peacetime population of only about 25000, and it is reported that some 7000 civilians are still present, so separatist artillery barrages into the town would appear to be shelling the very civilians that the separatists claim are being shelled by government forces) are weary, yes, exhausted, yes, dirty and tired, but far from being broken and routed…

Reports of body bags seem to be in the 20-30s rather than the 100s to thousands that they seem to try to imply?

It seems that Ukraine has now requested UN peacekeepers to ensure the ceasefire is maintained.

Could we be looking at UFOR?

I certainly don't see evidence of a general rout of the Ukrainian troops, rather a fighting withdrawal in difficult conditions with units suffering varied fates. Kyivpost has an interview with one officer who made the retreat on foot and at night with his unit of 50, they suffered no losses at all. link

Other units had to withdraw under fire and suffered accordingly, that the men that make it back to Ukrainian lines did so carrying their weapons and gear is to their credit and again clear evidence that this was no rout.

According to France 24s reporter Gulliver Cragg Poroshenko has stated that 2475 Ukrainian soldiers have come out of Delbatseve. Losses I've seen reported so far for the battle include 62 KIA, 654 WIA and 72 to 300 POW but the stories told by soldiers suggest that both KIA and WIA were left behind when the Ukrainians withdrew and 62 KIA seem way too low given the amount firepower thrown against the Ukrainian positions and the sheer number of destroyed vehicles in evidence.

Also if 2475 soldiers are all that has reached Ukrainian lines so far one wonders what has happended to the remainder of the 4000 to 6000 likely in the pocket. Lots of diffrent numbers have been reported but some reports seem to focus only on the actual troops in Debaltseve while others include the troops that had been holding the "shoulders" of the narrow corridor that led to the pocket.
Attempts at recreating the Ukrainian order of battle has suggested the presence of four(?) brigades, 128th and 30th, ,25th and 40th, for a total of 5000 to 6000 men. (I've seen the last two refered to as battalions as well which causes some confusion).

And there is also the equipment lost, according to NY Times the men were told to abandon anything which could not be used during the withdrawal. While I've seen a lot of vehicles in the various videos and photos there is a marked lack of towed equipment and crew served weapons in the images.

Of course it has not been a cheap victory for the Russians either, reports tell of costly frontal assaults and videos posted by pro-russian sources supposed to show Ukrainian losses have turned out to show mostly destroyed Russian tanks and vehicles. Some images suggest that entire tank platoons seem to have been wiped out at the same time.

Reports do indicate that due to communication issues no general order to withdraw was received. Instead individual units made a decision to withdraw, in part due to dwindling ammunition. Many of those seem to have extracted by foot across the fields at night.

Figures vary. At one point there were allegedly 8k troops in there. We are hearing claims of 80%+ extracted, but also a figure of ~2500 which is clearly not 80% of 8000. As you say, that number may include the troops along the road who were preventing complete encirclement. One wonders if the claim of 8000 men in the area was an attempt to deter a full assault.

Attempts at recreating the Ukrainian order of battle has suggested the presence of four(?) brigades, 128th and 30th, ,25th and 40th, for a total of 5000 to 6000 men. (I've seen the last two refered to as battalions as well which causes some confusion).

The old Soviet battalion is not as big as a western battalion and could be as few as 300-500 men. Statements indicate elements of brigades, rather than full brigades, so we could actually be looking at as few as 2000-3000 men, which would seem closer to reports of those claimed to have extracted/

Sounds like a pretty grim situation, and withdrawal to me.

The speechwriter who wrote the following must have gone to the same P.R. school Baghdad Bob, and or some writers on this side of the pond have as well, since nothing could be further from the truth:

"It is a strong evidence of combat readiness of the Armed Forces and efficiency of the military command (RE – the withdrawal from the pocket…….".

It does appear to be a messy withdrawal, with the soldiers themselves not certain if they were staying or going. Those who decided to leave did so seem to have taken independent action because supplies were short and the continuous intensity of barrage and assault was starting to take its toll as attrition exceeded their ability to effectively continue. As individual units withdrew that put increasing pressure on those remaining, hence a full scale withdrawal seems prudent under an increasing concentration of pressure from separatists on 3 sides. However there are reports of large scale losses on the separatist side too

Russian has called Ukraines request for UN peacekeepers 'a destructive move'. "The Ukrainian president's call raises suspicions that he wants to destroy the Minsk accords", Mr Churkin said.

Mr Poroshenko called for UN-mandated peacekeepers to enforce the ceasefire after fighting continued following the rebel advance on Debaltseve.

I'm at a slight loss how an independent force helping maintain a ceasefire can be destructive… unless Russia has something to hide or feels that a UN force would prevent the separatists from expanding their territory?

Remember, it is the separatists stated intention to obtain the whole of these two oblasts. They are currently willing to do it diplomatically, but I cant help but feel this is another consolidation and regroup before a spring/summer offensive.

An effective peacekeeping force paradoxically might be in nobody's interests. Peacekeepers tend to fix battle lines in place. In Ukraine both sides probably have further ambitions on the ground. The Russian-backed separatists may well want to advance further and the Ukrainian government's forces certainly aspire to take back territory that they have lost.

Many experts fear there is a lot more fighting to be done whether this ceasefire is implemented or not.

Ok, i can see that.

Some reference for those gaming the period:

Ukrainian soldiers who left the strategically important town of Debaltseve yesterday prepare to return to support the further withdrawal of their forces

geoffqrf
how far is it from Mariupol to crimea (cant make out the scale used on that map) ,what's the road and rail network like in that area and what other strategic targets are in that area to be captured

Blooming miles. About 230km/150 miles. You have to get through two other regions first!

Mariupol is the last major city, but Berdyansk is not small. Road networks are pretty Ukrainian, good in places, moderate in others.

You might like to look on Google maps at Melitopol though… that's on the Mariupol > Crimea route.

In particular, take a close look at the airport just to the north-west…