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"Are Submarines About to Become Obsolete?" Topic


16 Posts

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Tango0114 Feb 2015 12:13 p.m. PST

"What would happen if U.S. nuclear attack submarines—some of the most sophisticated and expensive American weapons of war—suddenly became obsolete? Imagine a scenario where these important systems became the hunted instead of the hunter, or just as technologically backward as the massive battleships of years past. Think that sounds completely insane? If advances in big data and new detection methods fuse with the anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) ambitions of nations like China and Russia, naval planners around the world might have to go back to the drawing board…"
Full article here
link

Amicalement
Armand

David Manley14 Feb 2015 1:02 p.m. PST

Saw the first serious concepts for UUV "carriers" about 16 years ago, good to see the think tank catching up :)

Lion in the Stars14 Feb 2015 1:34 p.m. PST

The problem is connectivity. Water generally blocks most radio frequencies, except for the very lowest, and VLF/ELF radios have crappy data transmission rates. They're about as good as a pager, telling the sub to come up and stick a mast up to get the news.

Until someone figures out stealthy underwater connectivity, submarines will be lone hunters, full stop.

David Manley14 Feb 2015 2:27 p.m. PST

Unless you are deploying autonomous vehicles, of course…..

Zargon14 Feb 2015 2:37 p.m. PST

As a sandwich concept? Hope so, a damed horrid idea.
The Earl? :)

Sudwind14 Feb 2015 3:47 p.m. PST

No

Halifax4914 Feb 2015 6:29 p.m. PST

No?

David in Coffs14 Feb 2015 7:34 p.m. PST

No!
;-p

As in… Question: are submarines about to become obsolete?the answer is no, or at least no time soon.

Mako1114 Feb 2015 8:51 p.m. PST

Of course they are, just like the tank, infantryman, conventional warfare, and the A-10 Warthog…….

Aapsych2014 Feb 2015 8:57 p.m. PST

No worries, submarines will remain very much a present and potent military and peacekeeping tools well into the future. At least according to the plot of Sea Quest DSV!

PHGamer16 Feb 2015 7:37 a.m. PST

And this is layman's terms? "… through quieting alone will decrease as each successive decibel of noise reduction becomes more expensive and as new detection methods mature that rely on phenomena other than sounds emanating from a submarine. …" I get it, but the writing leaves something to be desired. It is also hard to take someone seriously when their twitter account is @grecianformula.

Lion in the Stars16 Feb 2015 12:16 p.m. PST

Unless you are deploying autonomous vehicles, of course…

If you don't have some kind of IFF (which requires underwater connectivity/comms), those autonomous vehicles will still be lone hunters.

David Manley16 Feb 2015 2:52 p.m. PST

Not necessarily, depends on how you expect to operate them. There are many concepts involving groups and swarms

Lion in the Stars17 Feb 2015 8:47 p.m. PST

Without communication between members of the swarm, how do they avoid fratricide?

Sure, if we're dropping baby crabs to clear the minefield on a beach prior to landing you don't need to coordinate anything.

As soon as the opposition starts using UUVs of a similar size to ours, we can't use the "just don't attack anything your size" rule anymore.

Mako1117 Feb 2015 9:15 p.m. PST

I was under the impression that good sonar operators, and/or their computer/sound tracking equipment can readily identify a lot of vessels by their class, if not right down to the individual subs themselves.

Perhaps I've been watching too many movies, and reading too much naval fiction, though the idea does sound reasonably plausible.

I do get the underwater comm issues, though theoretically, I imagine directional, burst transmissions could be used underwater as well, since as we all know, sound travels much better and faster underwater, in many cases (excepting perhaps in some littoral waters, and shipping lanes.

Not sure the directional transmissions will be as nice and clean as in our thinner air atmosphere, though. I suspect not.

Lion in the Stars18 Feb 2015 4:52 p.m. PST

I was under the impression that good sonar operators, and/or their computer/sound tracking equipment can readily identify a lot of vessels by their class, if not right down to the individual subs themselves.

Perhaps I've been watching too many movies, and reading too much naval fiction, though the idea does sound reasonably plausible.


Tom Clancy had that pretty much correct in Hunt for Red October, barring the computer able to say "sounds like a seismic event." That's still a humans-only ability.

But weapons/torpedoes aren't able to ID targets, so as soon as a torpedo hits the water, everyone in the area is going to go to flank speed to try to avoid getting hit.

Radio waves don't penetrate water well, sonar signals reveal your position, light doesn't penetrate water very well either…

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