"Ebola Could Trigger Mass Migration" Topic

WASHINGTON, D.C. — The head of U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) warned an Ebola outbreak in Central America or the Caribbean could trigger a mass migration to the U.S. of people fleeing the disease and implied established Central American illegal trafficking networks could introduce the infected into the U.S., during remarks at a Tuesday panel on security issues in the Western Hemisphere at the National Defense University.

"If it comes to the Western Hemisphere, the countries that we're talking about have almost no ability to deal with it — particularly in Haiti and Central America," SOUTHCOM Commander, Marine Gen. John F. Kelly, said in response to a question of his near term concerns in the region.

"It will make the 68,000 unaccompanied minors look like a small problem."…

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This is on a wargaming and military modelling page because…?

This is on a wargaming and military modelling page because…?

mass migrations lead to conflict considering that the leads to gaming scenarios,

x42

FEZ!

I think there is some real gaming potential here, National Guard doing border enforcement, private militias doing border enforcement their own, the inevitable conflict between the two and the cartels trying to smuggle their wares through it all…

Hmm, one post to get to politics – that wasn't predictable at all. I'd hit complain on the OP for trolling, but….

Surely things that can trigger wars are reasonable topics for a wargaming forum.

Article I, section 10: No State shall, without the Consent of Congress, lay any Duty of Tonnage, keep Troops, or Ships of War in time of Peace, enter into any Agreement or Compact with another State, or with a foreign Power, or engage in War, unless actually invaded, or in such imminent Danger as will not admit of delay.

As far as I know, we've never had to test just what that last part means. But a mass illegal migration, particularly if linked with armed enemies (the drug cartels) and if a deadly epidemic might be involved, would certainly result in military action by the state of Texas. Depending on how the Federal authorities responded, one could imagine it also triggering some sort of Constitutional crisis.

No sane person wants to be there, but it is certainly imaginable.

Someone tries to create a cure for the disease, but instead amplifies it, and now we have zombie like invasion going on. Makes for a great wargaming scenario! It's like the beginning of every modern zombie type movie!

If you are looking to game this, drunk militia men versus drugged up cartel agents? Random movement for everybody.

Mass migrations could mean mass infections … and as noted the potential for cnflicts in many regions goes up as well …

Sure…

Per capita incomes in the effected regions are somewhat South of 150 dollars a year so they're not going to fly. Are they going to build rafts or swim? What is the crossing time via raft on the Atlantic? How does that square with a raft full of people, some of which are infected with Ebola?

If I was a shark I'd be terrified.

Bunch of hysterical idiots--we're really seeing the fallout from decades of because we seem to have a large body of citizenry unable to process facts and empirical reality. We have a dangerously stupid body-politic that is armed to the teeth.

Keep screaming chicken littles.

Mass migrations could mean mass infections

Mighty catchy there, Legion 4.

a new 'for the masses' rule ?

We will all be laughing at how we freaked out over this, when Bangladesh is under several feet of sea water and the surrounding countries armies are machine gunning down millions of refuges.

Back when I was in high school when over population was the global warming issue of the day; we were shown a film (pre-video days) that ended up with a general explaining to congress why he had no choice but to drop a nuke on the border to stop the flow of people.

Waves and waves of foreigners overwhelming our defenses, carrying the plague and destroying civilization as we know it.
It's a sick fantasy and fear mongering at its best, combining several paranoid scenarios into one nasty brew.

I always figured it meant "get a duck from the nearby pond, then get into cover".

"Nukes are coming?
Don't cry foul, save a fowl"

Despite their reassurances that ebola is not a viable threat, I'm sure these 'worst case scenarios' are keeping some authorities up at night. Once the infected are within our borders the vector can spread like wildfire and containing the outbreak will become harder.

Caesar, you overlook the fact that there doesn't need to be waves of invaders, a few hundred could readily spread ebola quite well.

First world medicine does not keep people from dying of ebola once contracted. The guy in Dallas, and a couple in Spain.

Has anyone read THE CAMP OF THE SAINTS? link

Seems to me the general was commenting on an outbreak in central América or the Carribean in which case the refugees would not be coming from Africa, rather from places we are already getting illegal traffic from. The idea being that an infected person coming from Africa to Central America or the Carribean would pose more of a public health risk there. If you are going to complain about paranoid fantasies at least get your scenario correct.

Based on the wiki article, I'd recommend this instead

link

Seems more grounded in reality and as an extra bonus, you could share it with your kids.

Is that the one where Donald meets 5he ancient astronauts?

Has anyone read THE CAMP OF THE SAINTS?

Racist fear-mongering garbage.

Based on the wiki article, I'd recommend this instead (Walt Disney's Donald Duck: Lost in the Andes) Seems more grounded in reality and as an extra bonus, you could share it with your kids.

An excellent response.

Well, TMP was returning to it's (long ago and far away) state of happiness recently.

It's too bad that the Editor in Chief decided to post the report here.

Glad to see there are some cool and thoughtful heads prevailing here though.

Cool and thoughtful heads? Are those the ones calling views with which they disagree "racist fear-mongering garbage"?

Time to build Mega City 1?

I like the idea that someone might try to seed people across the border.

Ebola is not a slow moving disease, so you don't have time to get people to come to you, and then provide them access over the border.

You could
1) persuade some people to go out and deliberately contract the disease so that they are still well enough to travel and get into contact with as many people as possible once across. It might be hard to persuade people to contract Ebola though!
2) persuade some people to round up recently infected people, then shepherd them across the border in such a way that they don't immediately demand medical treatment upon landing. I think that might be difficult too. And doing so without being caught yourself, given that you are wearing 100% coverage medical gear, is unlikely.

The real risk is US citizens contracting the disease overseas and flying home immediately for treatment.

Also fast killing diseases that spread only by contact are not dangerous, on the scale of things. They can be contained by simple quarantine. Such diseases are scary, but also easily avoided.

This year far more Americans will die of Influenza than will ever die of Ebola.

"Caesar, you overlook the fact that there doesn't need to be waves of invaders, a few hundred could readily spread ebola quite well."

Once ebola hits the States, quarantines happen. It is inevitable that a disease like this will get here. It is highly unlikely it will turn into a plague.

I want enchiladas now.

Cool and thoughtful heads? Are those the ones calling views with which they disagree "racist fear-mongering garbage"?

Have YOU read The Camp of the Saints? If you have, I honestly don't see how you call it anything else. Africans, Asians, and Indians are all demonized in the book, among other ethnicities, along with whites who actually care about human rights and inadvertently bring about the complete downfall of Western civilization.

I'll let the author, Jean Raspail, have the last word: "And so, once again, opinion was shaped [by the media and well meaning but misguided Christians] to believe that racism in the cause of self-defense is the scourge of humanity."

I did read CAMP, forty years ago or so. And I think you should be very careful about slinging around pejoratives like "racist." That card is about maxed out.

Is it your position that anyone opposed to open borders -- in effect no borders -- is a racist?

Wow. Some people are really paranoid!

More people will die of the Black Plague than Ebola this year in the U.S., but that won't stop the fear-mongering, apparently.

Regarding "Camp of Saints", Time Magazine (certainly not a left wing or radical publication) called it a "bilious tirade" way back on 1975. I think I will pass on reading it, for the same reasons I passed on the Turner Diaries: there are too many good books out there that need to be read.

Also? CotS was read by American right wing pundits, back in the day (40 years ago) in an openly racist fashion as a viable prediction of "the end of the white world". Calling the U.S. "The white world" is about as close to classically racist as one can get, short of donning black face and babbling on about fried chicken and watermelons.

People who read it when it came out clearly read it in racial and racist terms. But back then, they at least owned up to what they were saying.

reminds me of a motto :

YouTube link

So Frank, if 10 million homeless, penniless, economically unproductive non-English speaking people wanted in, right now, you'd admit them? If s0, how about 50 million? 100 million?

If not, on what basis would you exclude them? Since we assume you are not a racist?

"And I think you should be very careful about slinging around pejoratives like "racist." That card is about maxed out."

Your defence of promoting the "social/political views", as you put them, of a racist book – known to be highly popular amonst White supremecists – is to write that you think the label of "racist" is overused?

anyone did think of opposite happening ?

Something like USA being taken by a virus and having biggest part of it's population trying to move out into another aera . I guess that among the first waves of mass migration we'd find some trying to drive others from their land arguing about same economical and language barier to do so as when thriving for escuses to point them as threats.

But then on that one many good anticipational gaming campaigns to play with.

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Oh sure, it is all "code words" and double speak, but WE know what THEY really mean. How plain does it have to be? Does everything have to be spelled out for you?

Actually, there aren't any code words or dog whistles or color symbolism or metaphors in Camp of the Saints. It proudly wears its racism and paranoia on its sleeve, right out in the open, using plain words, clearly spelled out. It's not exactly "deep."

The other thing to remember is that Mr. Duncan was a Liberian citizen, not an American. All of the sensationalistic headlines screaming "first US death" make it sound like he was a US citizen. He was not, he was only visiting and happened to die here. I'm certain there have been many other visitors who have died in the last two weeks of many other causes, including heart disease, cancer, and car crashes.

This is on a wargaming and military modelling page because…?

Because that would be an invasion of the United States.

"first US death"

Just where did he die?

Was it in Libera?

Thing is he is only the first.

There will be more.

Thing is he is only the first.

There will be more.

Are you starting an over-under line on ebola deaths in the US now, Mithmee? Or just gleefully hoping for another death so that you can score some points in a forum discussion?

Yes Mr. Duncan was a Liberian citizen who just happened to come in contact with an ebola infected woman just before coming to the US. And lied to screeners about that fact.

He then resided with family members in the US while developing the disease himself. He then went in to the hospital where our amazing, efficient, modern, first world health system sent him home. Possibly as a result of problems with the new government mandated digital medical records system.

Considering this in the context of the efficiency and timeliness of the government response to tropical storm Andrew, I am very reassured.

Of course in 2-3 weeks we will know whether there is any further need to worry about this particular vector.

"There will be more."

No doubt.
Occasional cases won't make an epidemic.

"First world medicine does not keep people from dying of ebola once contracted. The guy in Dallas, and a couple in Spain."

Might want to get your facts straight, Doc . The couple in Spain are still quite alive (and the husband is still showing no signs of infection). The only death there was their dog, victim of the hyper-hysteria so well demonstrated by YOU.

As for 'First world medicine does not keep people from dying of ebola once contracted': That is patently ridiculous and you know it. The first 2 cases that were brought over are still very much alive. And never mind the rather large number who have survived infection in Africa.

But God Forbid that facts get in the way of your paranoid fantasy…

Might want to get your facts straight, Doc . The couple in Spain are still quite alive (and the husband is still showing no signs of infection). The only death there was their dog, victim of the hyper-hysteria so well demonstrated by YOU.

October 6, 2014 – A nurse's assistant in Spain becomes the first person known to have contracted Ebola outside Africa in the current outbreak. The woman helped treat two Spanish missionaries, both of whom had contracted Ebola in West Africa, one in Liberia and the other in Sierra Leone. Both died after returning to Spain.

Different case, sorry for your confusion. The point was that first world health care does not guarantee survival for ebola patients.

Frank, I am indeed a Christian, and try to act like it, and I certainly believe in the brotherhood of man. As do the missionaries treating ebola in Africa. No idea which of us believes what and more, and we are forbidden to judge each other in that way. I try to avoid speculating about people's motives, and just assume they mean well.

As for 'First world medicine does not keep people from dying of ebola once contracted': That is patently ridiculous and you know it. The first 2 cases that were brought over are still very much alive.

Is this still true?

And never mind the rather large number who have survived infection in Africa.

Non-sequitor, much?

The US does indeed have unparalleled resources and should (and to a great extent does) use them to alleviate suffering around the world. And hurrah for us, it's one of the things that makes us special.

But our resources did not just magically appear, and they can be squandered and even destroyed. Accepting a too-large body of people who are not easily assimilated might well destroy our ability to help them or anyone else. It is not a perfect analogy, but a lifeboat trying to save more people than the boat will hold results in everyone drowning.

My understanding of CAMP OF THE SAINTS is/was that this was his point. If it was overtly racist -- but I am not disposed to take your word for that, I'd have to check it myself, and will -- then I didn't notice.

You don't know me, but for the record: I grew up in segregated east Texas and know what racism looks and sounds like, and by 16 or so had decided that judging someone on the basis of skin color was utterly irrational. So, not sorry, no, no white power here. Kindly refrain from suggesting such, ever again.