… War Is Not Always "Short and Sharp".
"The centenary of World War I has spawned numerous retrospectives comparing 1914 to 2014. Some have drawn parallels between the complex webs of security guarantees that helped spark conflict in August 1914, and similar treaties and commitments that might lead to war in our time. Others have used the outbreak of "the Great War" as a reminder that economic interconnectedness does not preclude conflict; great-power war today could unravel the globalized economy in much the same way that it did a century ago.
While these comparisons may be valid, there is another more worrying similarity between 1914 and 2014: a failure to prepare for the possibility of protracted conflict based on the flawed belief that conventional war between great powers would be brief and decisive. In 1914, the failure to consider or prepare for a conflict that might last years rather than weeks made war more likely by creating the illusion that strategic goals could be achieved at minimal cost. Today, advances in technology have fostered a similar notion regarding conventional war between major powers. And yet militaries have a poor track record when it comes to predicting the character of future wars, particularly in times of rapid technological change. New military hardware may simply increase the destruction wrought by great-power war, much as it did in 1914, without making the conflict shorter or more decisive. Avoiding a similar catastrophe in the 21st century may therefore require deterring military adventurism by planning and preparing for protracted conflict.
Before World War I, military leaders and statesmen failed to comprehend how technological change had altered the conduct of war. A host of late 19th and early 20th century inventions, including smokeless powder, rapid-firing rifles, machine guns, breech-loading artillery with recoil compensation, reconnaissance aircraft, wireless communication, and barbed wire gave defenders an enormous advantage over attacking forces, yet every major power entered August 1914 with offensive strategies and military doctrines designed to achieve quick, decisive victories…"
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