"NATO Is Acting Like It’s 1985" Topic

"For months, Moscow has supported separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine with weapons, supplies, cross-border artillery barrages, propaganda and political cover. The result has been a powerful and, in places, deeply popular insurgency that threatens Ukraine's very existence in its current form.

Now Russian president Vladimir Putin is finally taking a more direct approach to exercising his country's influence over its smaller, poorer western neighbor. Russian tanks and troops have attacked across the border near the Azov Sea, opening up another front against Kiev's beleaguered army.

The Russian incursions have been small, subtle and slow, but despite Putin's denials, they do amount to an invasion—ostensibly the final move in Moscow's long-term strategy of destabilizing, dividing and defeating Ukraine…"
Full article here
link

Amicalement
Armand

Russian tanks and troops have attacked across the border near the Azov Sea, opening up another front against Kiev's beleaguered army.

Have we actual confirmation of that?

The linked document in the article from the Latvian military is very interesting and should be read. I have linked it directly below. Thank you Tango01.
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Rod Robertson

"Moscow is rightly convinced that the United States and the European Union were working to attract the Ukraine to their sphere of influence, ignoring Russia's natural right to the region. Russia's goal has always been to make Ukraine a friendly and subordinate partner."

Does that not assume that Ukraine and the Ukrainian people themselves have no opinion/say in the matter, and Ukraine is merely a puppet state for one side or the other…?

Hi, Geoff. "Do we have confirmation?" YES. In fact, it's enough to "call it" when both sides exchanged prisoners, many admitted to being Russians, captured within the Ukraine. When an armed force from another nation is fighting uninvited in another nation, it is traditionally called an "invasion" and is internationally agreed to norm as a reason to go to war.

In this case, they were "invited" by an opposing faction that does not represent the internationally recognized government of the Ukraine. Their jumping of the border was not sanctioned by any international organizations and the fact they had intervened then lied about it, should be reason enough to kick them out of the UN since it violates UN rules and sanctions.

Problem is, the west is slow to act when diplomacy fails. (Think what happened 75 years ago….)

This is the world we live in and it has always been a dangerous place. There has always been someone willing to subjugate others for their financial gain/power.

V/R
Tom

At the moment there is only circumstantial hearsay evidence that [a sizeable number of] actual Russian tanks and troops have attacked across the border near the Azov Sea. We are aware of considerable mechanised movement which may have come across the border, or may have broken out of Donetsk and headed south following the border to the coast.

The separatists have confirmed "3-4000 Russians" fighting on their side, but have also stated that they are all volunteers – no sanctioned Russian state incursions. We are also aware of multiple nationalities fighting, on both sides, but only in very small numbers – only Russia seems to have such a large input, and undoubtably without that input this situation would have been resolved long ago.

While it may seem highly likely, even the secretary general of the OSCE confirms "it is difficult to confirm the presence of regular Russian forces operating within Ukrainian territory".

We do have other (circumstantial) evidence, an incursion by 10 VDV soldiers who allegedly managed to get themselves lost some 30 miles over the border:

Russia says they are an anomoly, that those are the only ones… other than the other few that Ukraine also captured, which again doesn't bode well for credibility when Russia denies any other incursions. Of course 30 miles is a good full days march, and given the proximity to a known conflict area it may be questionable how they managed to be lost that far inside Ukraine without noticing a single Ukrainian sign… (there are different words and letterforms)

We do have the T-72 with the latest ERA seen in Lugansk, a type of ERA apparently only fitted to Russian tanks and never supplied to Ukraine.

Perhaps the separatists knocked one up?

And we do have the tanks seen near Rostov/Kamensk-Shakhtinsk (within Russia), bearing the slogan "for Donbass":

Perhaps they are just being distantly supportive… waiting for one of those to be photographed inside Ukraine now ;-)

So it is difficult to say that Russia has launched a mainstream attack inside Ukraine, although there is considerable circumsntatial evidence of a much softer series of repeated incursions designed to continue to destablise the region, rather than any consise effort to help contain it and stabilise it, which would be the route to take if you were really concerned about the humanitarian situation…

Small correction, about ERA – it is indeed later model, but not latest. Also – it was supplied/bought (no idea was it even produced), in small numbers, to ukraine during the soviet era (and apparently even after that, as at least one of the T-64 upgrades offered by Kharkin-Morozov includes K-5, and also, T-80UD included this from the beginning, also manufactured in ukraine), but the thing is, that they never had T-72B (..or any T-72 variant) with K-5, neither they did produce such.

Kontak-5 is harder to mount into AFV on improvised basis than 1+ generation Kontakt-1 (Kontak-5 needs to be angled correctly, so it needs static, welded on, racks), but in theory, it is possible that separatists could have aquired some amounts of K-5 ERA-blocks and even retrofitted them to some of their T-72, but as said, that requires far more sophisticated engineering/expertise than mounting of K-1.

Also, btw, in that picture is just "common" T-72 wielding Kontakt 1, which is easily available (and used widely by ukrainian military) and can be mounted in pretty much any vehicle on ad-hoc basis. That video in youtube did feature T-72 with K-5, but just for clarification for those not so familiar with the subject.

Also, btw, in that picture is just "common" T-72 wielding Kontakt 1

It was the same video link, but I think it was the tnk that came just after that one – couldn't find the right one!

Apparently it is this vehicle:

Which is (according to the IISS), "…not known to have been "exported or operated" outside of Russia"

Yep, that indeed. Clarified my post too.

And yes, T-72B with K-5, as far as I know, aint widely operated outside russia. But K-5 is, in some amounts.

"The separatists have confirmed "3-4000 Russians" fighting on their side, but have also stated that they are all volunteers – no sanctioned Russian state incursions."

Reminds me of the Chinese 'volunteers' that showed up in Korea. Or German, Russian, and Italian 'volunteers' in Spain.

Italy's La Repubblica newspaper reports that President Putin told the president of the European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, that: "If I want to, I can take Kiev in two weeks".

He may be right, but under the current circumstances not the wisest of veiled threates to be making, perhaps?

Here is the video from which many of the still shots are taken. The video may only show the end of the column as the road bares the signs of being damaged by heavy tracked vehicles before the first vehicle drives over it but as this wear and tear cuold have happened at any time it is unclear how large the colunm is. Based on what the video does actually show, the column is not that big comprising only four or five tanks, some AA kit and some trucks towing things which I cannot identify but suspect are mortars. I am not convinced that this is proof of a Russian incursion/ invasion of Ukraine. It looks like a mixed bag of kit that might be cobbled together by irregulars not a column of Russian regulars. Of course I could be wrong!
YouTube link
Rod Robertson

If NATO was acting like it's 1985, we'd have 5 divisions in
Poland and be on nuclear alert.

NATO is hardly acting at all.
-Kle.

Here is an interesting BBC article about "European Volunteers" in Ukraine

link

Most seem to be be communist/left wing and siding with Russia/Rebels

While those voluntering for Ukraine tend to be more right wing

so not a good publicity for either side

but this report is only reporting on a small minority, just those they have found out about and not exactly a lot of volunteers

Reminds me of the croatia conflict and mercenaries

Al

Yep, there appears to be some road marking before the first vehicle crosses. I suspect he saw the convoy and grabbed his camera, so possibly only a few vehicvles.

Looks like…

MTLB with ZU23-2
T-72
Truck with 120mm mortar
MTLB/SA13
BMP-2
Truck with 120mm mortar
T-72
Truck with 120mm mortar
MTLB with ZU23-2
MTLB
The suspect tank
T-72
Unsure (his wife started asking him questions and he was waving the camera about while answering her) :-)
BMD-2

We hear reports of 60 or 80 tanks attacking places, but have only ever seen a handful anywhere.

The column itself is fairly regular as a supported mortar group, plus a few extras. As a selection of mixed vehicles it is nothing unusual. It is just that one vehicle, identified by the IISG, that is causing alarm.

The US, I hear, is sending a battalion sized task force of two tank companies and two mech infantry companies to conduct exercises in some of the Eastern NATO countries. Hardly a 1985 type REFORGER.. more of a Trip Wire operation, I'd say.

Hope things settle down over there. It's been 75 years today since Poland was attacked. Let's try to at least make it to 100 years of relative peace in Europe for a change, hmmmm?

No mention my friend Rod! (smile)

Amicalement
Armand

Ah … flashing back to 1984 ! I'm sure Putin and his cronies feel like it is just like "the good old days" … He recently mentioned that they have lots of nucs too … old school ! Good times ! huh !? Old KGB habits die very hard, it appears …

I've heard of attacks on Eastern Ukrainian airbases as well, so just waiting to see Russian air transports offloading armor, personnel, and supplies there too, like back in Afghanistan, in 1979.

There was also some brief mention of an attack at, or across the sea, but no further details were supplied.

The continuing Russian denials of any involvement crack me up. Not up to Baghdad Bob levels of implausibility yet, but I'm sure they are working on that.

There has been fighting over both Donetsk and Lughansk airports fir a while. Ukrainian troops just retreated from Lughansk airport, claiming they were attacked by a sizeable Russian tank force.

Ukrainian ships sailing near the coast along the Sea of Azov, between Mariupol and The Russian border, where separatists recently gained some ground, we're attacked by either artillery or missile fire. There is video footage of one large boat completely burnt out.