""Maskirovka’ Is Russian Secret War" Topic

"Armed men with their faces covered by balaclavas who say they are pro-Russian Ukrainian separatists but who possess weapons and equipment used to equip Russian special forces.

A convoy of more than 200 vehicles that the Russian government said carried humanitarian relief for people in war-ravaged eastern Ukraine, yet many of the vehicles inspected by customs officials at the Russian-Ukrainian border were nearly empty.

Earlier in August, the Russians reportedly moved military vehicles with "peacekeeping" insignia to the border—a first since the crisis in the Ukraine erupted. At the same time, Russia continued a massive build up of arms and manpower along the border that the NATO secretary general recently termed "alarming."…"
Full article here.
link

Amicalement
Armand

Reminds me of "Maskirova" in the beginning of T.Clancy's Red Storm Rising !

"I think there's a shift here that we may be witnessing, very recently, from largely covert, ambiguous, deniable support to what appears increasingly to be flat-out, overt and obvious (support) and with the only form of ambiguity being that the Russians… claim it is not happening."

Geoff, you have expressed some very cogent and informed thoughts on this whole extended crisis. I would value your opinion on what sort of endgame the Russians (I almost typed Soviets) are planning for? Someone in the Russian system is obviously still optimistic that they will get what they want, since they are still pouring resources into it.

I was discussing this yesterday, trying to ascrtain possible outcomes.

I don't think it is really about the 'Russian people'. If it was, they would have sent a 'peacekeeping' force in a long time ago so secure the area and protect the population.

Trashing the Ukrainian economy does nothing for Russia, other than a bit of 'there, serves them right for not playing nicely with us', but the damage to Russia (diplomatically and politically, I don't hold the Russian people responsible for whatever outcome) could have long term repercussions. Any future negotiations will be tainted with 'yes, you said that about Crimea/Ukraine' for quite some time. Ukraine was borderline bankrupt before, so its not really any big difference to them to borrow from the EU as to borrow from Russia.

Strategically, holding a bit of Ukraine does them no favours either. There's not really much there, except old school heavy industry and mining. They have plenty of that in Russia already – Russia has a surplus of energy.

Potentially it could be an attempt to restrict other's access to energy (there was talk of fracking in Lughansk) thus preventing them from accessing alternative energy and keeping the need for Russian supply on line.

I don't believe it really has anything to do with NATO expansion either. Turkey has been in NATO since the outset, and with NATO in Germany, Poland, Latvia and Lithuania then Ukraine is really neither here nor there. Ukraine has also acted as peacekeeper in several operations, so their combined involvement is pretty irrelevent.

My thoughts keep tending back towards a distraction – nothing to do with an endgame, per se, but a distraction from a failing economy at home on the verge of collapse and a need to keep the people accepting whatever goes on. Putin allegedly has over 80% popularity, but I am wondering just how genuine that really is. Medvedev is down in the 20% area.

But at the moment I think they are merely reacting to situations and keeping it fluid to keep up the popularity ratings at home (and knowing that there is really no clean end solution, as you will always have some dissent and bad feeling, so they can keep that going for quite some time) rather than any massive end plan.

Thanks, that makes a lot of sense to me.

Good thread GeoffQRF.

Amicalement
Armand

Geoff-

There's was an article on this subject on a BBC link that I read this evening. One of the interesting points was that, while the Russian government is trying to control the story, what's happening is getting out because of wives and mothers. And while polls show Russia's aggressive posture against Ukraine and the west is very popular, the same polls show that a pronounced majority are against sending troops to Ukraine. It will be interesting to see what happens inside Russia.

I've been thinking a lot about Putin's motivations myself. I was thinking the same thing that you express about the territory itself. From reading about the Donbas I imagine mostly old factories and coal mines. Sort of like rust belt Ohio. Can't imagine you'd want it.

This is outside the base near Moscow. Several hundred women were demanding to know where they had been sent, general disagreement with them being put into another country with which Russia is not at war, while the country officially denies their presence there, and by accounts from the soldiers themselves against their own knowledge. The soldiers are indicating they did not know they were being sent to Ukraine, did not know they were being sent over the border and are generally against being used.

With reports of sons and husbands not coming back, being buried in secret graves in Ukraine or back in Moscow, 'training accidents', etc, it seems internal unrest is on the rise.

Putin, talking an international youth camp in Western Russia.

link

"You know, the situation sadly reminds me of the Second World War, when the German fascist occupants would surround our towns such as Leningrad and would shoot directly at the residential buildings and people. To this day street signs from that time are still hanging on Nevski Prospekt, saying 'dont walk on this side, it's too dangerous'. This is horrible, it's a catastrophe, so I do understand the militias of Ukraine south-east, Donetsk and Lughansk, why they call their operations military humanitarian, they are trying to push the Ukrainian rocket launchers and artillery away from the big cities so that they don't kill civilians…"

Of course it is not so one-sided as he is trying to portray.

The Ukrainian army was not actually firing at the cities until the separatists retreated into them and were firing out of them (no firing taking place in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovks, Zaporozhiya, Mariupol, Berdyansk, Odessa, so they are not just simply indiscriminately shelling buildings and people in the east.

During the fight for Kramatorsk insurgent separatists used tanks and mortars. Separatists have also been firing mortars, artillery and rockets, and many of the attacks allegedly by government forces also carry little actual evidence – reports of massed Grad barrages which, from evidence, appear to be single mortar rounds and more likely to have come from a much shorter range…

And there seems to be increasing evidence of artillery and rockets fired into Ukraine from within Russia.

Perhaps those in glass houses…?