"War in the Taiwan Strait: Would China Invade Taiwan? " Topic

"Beyond doubt, relations across the Taiwan Strait have improved substantially since 2008—so much so that some analysts have concluded that the course of the Taiwan "issue" will continue unimpeded and inexorably towards even greater stability, if not "reunification." But this is all wishful thinking.

Rapprochement has probably gone as far as it can, and whatever comes next will likely be hounded by complications, slow progress and growing opposition in Taiwan. Unable or unwilling to make any proposal for unification that has any chance of appealing to democratic Taiwan's 23 million people, wrong footed by the rise of Taiwan's combative civil society, and haunted by recent developments in Hong Kong, where "one country, two systems" is all but dead, China will have two options: give up on Taiwan, or use force to complete the job. Under the decisive President Xi Jinping, in the context of rising ultranationalism across China, and given the cost of "losing" Taiwan to the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) credibility (at least according to Beijing's rhetoric), it is difficult to imagine that Beijing would choose the former option. Use of force, therefore, would be the likely response, and hubristic China might well be tempted to try its luck.

The widening power imbalance in the Taiwan Strait, added to (mistaken) perceptions that Taiwanese have no will to fight, has led some Chinese officials and many members of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to conclude that the military option, which Beijing never abandoned even as relations improved, is not only a viable one, but one that could quickly resolve the issue. Granted, the ratio of annual defense expenditures reached about 12:1 in China's favor this year (and that is only using China's declared budget)…"
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Amicalement
Armand

'China will have two options: give up on Taiwan, or use force to complete the job.'

Actually, there is a third option: continuing with the status quo into the foreseeable future. As long as Taiwan does not issue a unilateral declaration of independence, that is a perfectly viable alternative for both parties.

Considering the fact that reunification is one of the core planks of the PRC and the growing problems in their economy along with the dramatic imbalance in not only male/female ratios but young vs old in their society, I think the PRC will attack someone sooner rather than later. The surest way dictatorial regimes have of unifying a nation is creating a common enemy that is not The State.

I agree with Whatisitgood4atwork; China is happy with status quo.

If there's going to be any conflict, it will be with Japan over Senkakus. Killing Taiwanese brethren is bad PR, but fighting revile Japanese would be seen as honourable.

The surest way dictatorial regimes have of unifying a nation is creating a common enemy that is not The State.

You forget that most of the US allies in the North Asian region were once dictatorships and only became democratic after following an economic development path similar to what China is doing now.

As for Chinese economic troubles, it depends on who you listen to. It's too early to see which way they're heading.

Of course – I suspect if China and Russia became failed states with massive famine and war, it'd be considered a great result for those "inside the Beltway"

The problem is that China is sitting on multiple nasty economic bombs. One is the demographic result of the One Child policy. As I understand it, there are parts of China where there are something like 7 men for every woman.

That's 6 families that are going to cease to exist, unless something is done to find their sons a bride. So there's one major source of trouble.

Many companies are now leaving China in source of cheaper labor, causing layoffs. Unemployed males are a major source of societal friction, look at any American inner city.

And China's economy is in serious danger now, with all that overpriced real estate and nobody actually living in it.

This also puts a new slant on Ukraine. Russia doesn't want an equal or superior force on its border. Stopping the transfer of technology from Ukraine to China may be an underlying, deeply underlying, cause of the current problems there.

Bad news those about Hong Kong.
Are the Chinese "believable" as rulers? (smile)

Amicalement
Armand

Name one state that artificially pegged its currency to create value while using State controlled Slave Labor to shove its way into the world stage. Other than China, I mean.

Japan rebuilt on the US Dime after we smashed it flat in WWII and South Korea on the US Dime after the Korean war.

Vietnam has been a basket case after the Communist takeover and now is desperate for western capital and is terrified of Chinese Hegemony.

China is in Deep Dookey right now. Socially and economically. Taiwan is very right to be worried.

Supposedly the "one child" policy has been loosened a bit. Not sure if that is in all areas, or official yet, but I read about that a while back.

Also read a headline that China is now getting African nations to produce at least some of their stuff, since their labor costs have increased a bit.

In addition, they've been working on a lot of other economic deals with Africa and others, to secure energy, minerals, and other commodities for the future, so they may be much better off than the West in that regard, soon, if not already, especially if inflation spikes.

I imagine if push comes to shove, China will eventually make a grab for Taiwan.

Nothing unifies a nation's citizens more than an outside threat, whether real, or created, so look for that to rear its ugly head, if needed. The Japanese and USA, amongst others, are likely trumped up foes.

'Considering the fact that reunification is one of the core planks of the PRC …'

Of course, this is also a core plank of the Taiwanese constitution. Sorry, I mean the Republic of China's constitution. Officially, Taiwan is just one Province of the RoC. And it has been for 65 years so far.

As long as everyone maintains that useful fiction and nobody loses face, then the status quo can continue. China waited 150 years to get Hong Kong back. There is no more pressing need to re-unify on the current President's watch than there was under the last President's.

Reports of China's imminent economic collapse are speculation, and the inevitability of an invasion following said collapse is speculation on top of speculation.

As long as China depends on a substantial portion of her raw material needs, including most of her petroleum, passing through the Straights of Malacca and as long as China lacks the ability to keep those straights open, China can't pick fights that last long enough to run out of oil.

If China believes a short campaign of overwhelming force could decide the issue in 10 days or less, it might be tempting.

They've now got a couple of pipelines/railways through Asian allied countries, so no longer need to move oil throught the Straits, sadly.

sadly.

It'd be better if they got all of it from the US, then US turned off the tap and they all died. That's the underlying tone on TMP when it comes to China and other non-Western states.

People here hate the Chinese and the Russians and the Arabs (except US chums). I've never seen it anywhere else to this extreme.

They're all typing this stuff on computers and smart phones manufactured by their declared enemies :)

Yup. I don't think they've realised how if China collapses, they would drag the rest of the world in as well economically.

Mind you I've been seeing naysayers predicting (or more likely wishing for) Chinese collapse since I was first at Uni studying Asia economic growth in 1999-2001.