"Someone is Bombing Libya" Topic

It's not clear who is attacking the Islamists in Libya, since apparently no one wants to take credit for the operations:

link

Could it be Murphy, using his secretly completed carrier, the USS RM Nixon?

Could be Algeria or Morocco or someone else just plain p.o.ed at the continuing shenanigans in Libya.

It's Iran, the planes are their submersible, hypersonic, stealth variety and using time travel they have already done their BDA before the strike so can re-target the original strike more accurately.

Seriously, is an ISIS backed militia there?

Doesn't even mention if the attacks were in daylight or night.

link

Supposedly the former Ghadfi general has air units or he claimed credit for it (in the BBC online today iirc)

Two aircraft and they launched pre-dawn raids.

It's interesting.

I've tried over the last few years to get information as to current status of Libyan AF but it's difficult.

I can confirm existence of some aircraft repainted in new Libyan roundels and presented as operational.

Below list includes confirmed siting of both operational and non-operational Libyan aircraft since uprising began.

Mirage F1: 1 operational (502) (another 1 (508) crashed). This is from 2 that flew to Malta. 3 more spotted non-operational

MiG-21bis/UM: 5 (069, 073, 114, 200,208) operational, 1 retired and put on pedestal (319), 701 in pieces (possibly overhaul)

MiG-23MF/ML/UB: 4 operational (6117, 6452, 6472, 8133), 1 retired and put on pedestal (though this was an ancient MiG-23MS #6907)]

MiG-25: ALL NONOPERATIONAL: 207,485, 903 7811

Su-22 1 x non operational (no wings!)

L-39: 4 operational 1939, 1944, 9445, 9446. Unairworthy: 9441

G-2 Galeb: 4 unspecified ( 3 flying in formation)

J-1 Jastreb: 1 unspecified – no photos exist of aircraft in flight

C-130 114, 115, unspecified x 1, 5A-DOM in civilian colours)

An-26: 5A-DOA, 5A-DOW

An-32: 5A-DRE + another UNPSEFICIED

An-72/-74 1 unspecified

Il-76: 5A-DNO, 5A-DZZ1, 1x unpsecified airworthy, 2 more unairworthy,

CH-47C: LC-010, LC-017, 1 x unspecified

Mi-25: 858, 854, 863, 2 x unspeficified

Mi-8/-17: 2860, 8223, 8230, 8334, 8337, 1 x unspecified, 8335 destroyed in accident plus 1 more lost in another accident this year (carrying lots of cash too), 4 unspecified rotorless

Mi-14: LC1417, 1 x unspecified operational

Mi-2: 1 x unspecified operational, 2 non operational including 6747

SF260: 3 x unspecified, 5a-DME, 5A-DMF (civilian colours), 310, 545, 669 (both possibly included in shot of 3 unspecified SF260s flying in formation)

A-109: 5A-DTI, 5A-DTC 5A-DTL, 5A-DTJ (police)

militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?222505-New-Libyan-Armed-Forces

MiG-23BN, MiG-25, Su-22, Su-24, Mirage 5 and Tu-22 are all out of service. Mirage 5s were sold to Pakistan whilst 2 out of 6 Su-24s were transferred to Syria, 1 was destroyed in accident and remaining 3 destroyed in civil war.

Most of the Mirage F1s were out of service too – 2 in Malta had been overhauled by French as well as 2 others. However photos have only revealed existence of 2 (502 and 508) in post-Gaddafhi Libyan service. 508 crashed thus leaving only 502. It is possible other 2 overhauled Mirage F1s are either still in France or were destroyed by NATO (at least 1 was claimed as destroyed on some sites).

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What can be seen is there are extremely limited assets available to the Libyans for ground attack sorties but these assets do exist.

L-39, J-1/G-2, Mirage F1 and MiG-21bis are all ground attack capable and there are about 15 operational (or at least tarted up in new paint jobs).

Do any of those platforms have a decent N/BW attack capability?

Not in a modern sense. Though a static known target with no defences should be relatively easy to vaguely hit even at night. Indeed it was claimed Libyan aircraft were launching night time strikes in July against Islamist targets..

It doesn't mention how accurate the strikes were. Presence of guided weapons would indicate another player.

Mirage F1s were a pretty good ground attack platform though the Libyan ones were a mixed bag of multirole all weather Mirage F1E and limited day ground attacker Mirage F1A (as well as dual seat Mirage F1D). I am not sure what variant 502 and the other upgraded ones were. In any case, there were no reports of Libyans getting PGM's with their upgraded Mirage F1s

Both the Algerians and Egyptians have all weather strike capability (Su-24/30, MiG-29 and Mirage 5, Mirage 2000, F-16 and F-4E respectively), but I don't know if they have the expertise or intel capabilities to launch long range accurate strikes at night. Tunisia has no such capability – it's airforce is about 15 F-5E/F and a few armed jet trainers.

Both Algeria and Egypt have been loathe to interfere in recent years due to their own problems.

If the strikes were accurate and well coordinated, I'd suspect US involvement.

According to Reuters, renegade General Khalifa Haftar has claimed responsibility for strikes:

reuters.com/article/2014/08/18/us-libya-security-idUSKBN0GI03Z20140818

He managed to get most of the air force when the army fell apart. He also got the Navy as well.

Failed states – so much fun. They were better off under Gaddafhi.

Failed states – so much fun. They were better off under Gaddafhi.

He was a mental, head case Dictator. But I agree. The west have gotten or tried to get rid of all of them, only made it worse IMO and the leaders who started/continued should be held responsible. I'd rather the bad guy you know and understand to bribe rather than a 1000 you don't.
Terrible but true.

I love it ! Renegade General !! You can't make this stuff up !

Who else remembers this game?

Yep, just substitute 'shelling the presidential palace' for 'bombing the capital.'

Who else remembers this game?

I played it a few times, and enjoyed it :)

I would bet that Egypt is responsible. The current government would be very much against Islamic parties, and want to do everything they could to suppress them.

The Algerians have much less of a motive.

"Failed states – so much fun. They were better off under Gaddafhi."

"They" disagree with you, and I think self-determination is a much better way to government than depending on Westerners to determine who should rule you.

True, it might be messy on the way, but better that they ultimately get the government that reflects the will of the people, than one installed by the West.

And Junta was a great game, btw. Perfect beer and pretzels. We used to have an open game late Saturday night at Historicon, with all kinds of people jumping in…

I read a news item today that it's the Egyptians and the Emiratis (!)(I knew the Emirates have an airline. Evidently they also have an air force.) who are bombing the mujahidin in Libya. And the US is angry that they didn't ask our permission. To bomb Libya.

What a fustercluck.

Apparently a leaked report suggests Egypt and the UAE have launched strikes on the Libyan Jihadists.

link

Ooh, I'm going to dig out my copy of Junta…

"They" disagree with you, and I think self-determination is a much better way to government than depending on Westerners to determine who should rule you.

Actually the West kicked a Libyan leader out (Gaddafhi) and tried to install a pro-western one.

True, it might be messy on the way, but better that they ultimately get the government that reflects the will of the people, than one installed by the West.

Utlimately Libya is a failed state as many predicted when the whole shebang started. Just like Iraq and just like Syria and just like Yemen (we don't talk about that one though).

So you don't get "government that reflects the will of the people," unless you mean rule by various warlords, Islamists and militias.

If they get their act together the type of central government they might get will probably be undemocratic and fundamentalist in nature.

What the West hasn't figured out is that some cultures are not conducive to democratic government. There is no civil society in these countries, little or no sense of national identity and the main loyalties are to clan, family and Allah (though not necessarily in that order).

Even Eastern Europe had these concepts and even then not all transitions to democracy have been successful (e.g. Ukraine or Belorussia) or resulted in better living standards for people than what they had before Communism (e.g. Romania, Croatia, Bulgaria, Slovakia).

"And the US is angry that they didn't ask our permission."

Ha! This is that school of foreign policy thought that holds the U.S. knows better how to do everything around the world. Based on our apparent success in places like Iraq, Afghanistan, and yes, Libya…

It's nice to find *something* we agree on, Tuscaloosa. Do you suppose we could build on that? Naw, prolly not.

That's a real interesting line on that map, Milites. Do you suppose the Emiratis are actually overflying the Negev? I would bet not. They wouldn't have to divert very far south to avoid Israeli airspace. But I'll bet the IAF is on *highest* alert.

"Actually the West kicked a Libyan leader out (Gaddafhi) and tried to install a pro-western one."

Nonsense. Gadhafi had done a dramatic about-face, and was about as pro-western as you could get. Signed extensive deals with Western oil companies (all of which went up in smoke), accepted terrorists in custody from the Brits and U.S., etc etc.

"If they get their act together the type of central government they might get will probably be undemocratic and fundamentalist in nature."

Yes, certainly. And then they'll move through that phase (took about two months in Tunisia), and make strides towards real democracy on their own.

But any attempts by the West to dictate governments inevitably backfire: for example, the Islamic Republic of Iran's strongest claim to legitimacy is that they pulled down a Western puppet, and reversed the Mossadegh coup. Ultimately, exactly the opposite of what we wanted.

"It's nice to find *something* we agree on, Tuscaloosa. Do you suppose we could build on that?"

I think we agree on lots of stuff… Although maybe my disagreement on that point proves your point?

"Even Eastern Europe had these concepts and even then not all transitions to democracy have been successful (e.g. Ukraine or Belorussia) or resulted in better living standards for people than what they had before Communism (e.g. Romania, Croatia, Bulgaria, Slovakia)."

There is a direct and simple test for whether or not the Eastern European transition to democracy was successful or not. In every country where capitalism was introduced across the board immediately (so-called shock therapy), it worked, despite the initial pains (see Poland). In every country where capitalism was introduced only grudgingly, step by step, with state economy taking the central role, it failed (see Ukraine).

This shows that the divisions between successful transitions and failed transitions are not cultural (or even political), they are based on economic policy. Same thing with the Arab world. Their problems are not ultimately culture or religion based, but economic.

Zippy, I think the IAF probably escorted the UAE jets and their tanker aircraft, after all they're fighting a joint enemy. It's a very poor secret that some of the Arab oil states, whilst publically condemning the evil Zionists, often privately support their actions and cheer from the side lines.

This is specially true in the latest operations against the Gaza strip, the Arab alliance supporting the Palestinians is over. It's no longer Arab versus Jew, but the extremists and their backers, versus the more 'liberal' Arab regimes. So you'll see more mysterious air strikes happen against Islamists, question is where next?

There's co-operation, but it's arms-length, without a lot of trust. If the IAF escorted the Emiratis, it was not to safeguard them (from whom?) but to keep an eye on them. You can never tell when some Flight Lieutenant might be overcome with Sudden Jihad Syndrome and divert his strike package to Eilat.

I think the IAF probably escorted the UAE jets and their tanker aircraft, after all they're fighting a joint enemy.

I think the UAE guys are basing in Egypt. They could've flown to Egypt via Saudi Arabia.

Given UAE has a mere 3 tankers, I doubt they have the capability for multiple top ups of heavily laden jets. Basing in Egypt probably means only 1 refuel required.

Yes, certainly. And then they'll move through that phase ( took about two months in Tunisia ) , and make strides towards real democracy on their own.

But any attempts by the West to dictate governments inevitably backfire:

Yet transition to democracy in Egypt on "their own terms" has failed and it's effectively back to the old regime minus Mubarak.

Libya has been failing for nearly 4 years now – that's a bit more than "2 months".

And Tunisia is vastly different to any of the other Arab countries – it's culturally and relgiously homogenous ( virtually all Arab Berber and all Sunni ) and is far more economically advnaced.

And even then it's not been smooth sailing – e.g. in 2013 leader of the opposition was assassinated, certain groups have been banned and there have been violent clashes resulting in deaths.

There is a direct and simple test for whether or not the Eastern European transition to democracy was successful or not. In every country where capitalism was introduced across the board immediately ( so-called shock therapy ) , it worked, despite the initial pains ( see Poland ) . In every country where capitalism was introduced only grudgingly, step by step, with state economy taking the central role, it failed ( see Ukraine ) .

Poland is the only Eastern European state to have it's post-1991 GDP surpass it's Communist era GDP. All the others have stumbled badly and have regressed. So much for shock therapy.

Capitalism can fail by the way if not properly regulated. Many of the Eastern European countries simply swapped nepotisic and corrupt Communists for nepotistic and corrupt capitalists without any regard for rule of law.

And even Poland has regressed in a number of areas e.g. gender equality ( link ) or religious tolerance ( they've become Catholic zealots – look at hounding of "Satanic" heavy metal bands like Behemoth or blasphemy charges against the country's biggest pop star ) .

Bare in mind that the most effective transitions to capitalism have been by authoritarian states like South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore who did it slowly and methodically. They did this by heavy government involvement initially and eventually opening up.

Eventually they switched to democracy too ( except Singapore but you can still play in a heavy metal band and not be ostracised unlike religious nutter land Poland ) .

This shows that the divisions between successful transitions and failed transitions are not cultural ( or even political ) , they are based on economic policy. Same thing with the Arab world. Their problems are not ultimately culture or religion based, but economic.

I don't think you've shown anything other than 2 exceptions ( Poland and Tunisia ) .

I think you are assuming that non-Western Europeans/Americans are driven by the same reasoning as westerners.

That a considerable number of Muslims living in the Western world as well as middle/class rich ones from Arab states are drawn to fundamentalism and even terrorism is proof that the issue is not economic.

You also neglect that there is no such thing as an Iraqi or Libyan or Syrian or Afghani or Yugoslav – all these countries are western constructs that were held together by dictators. Without an authoritarian rule, they degenerate into clan/sectarian warfare – this is exactly what's happened.

( Even at it's height there was no such thing as Yugoslavia – only 8% of the population identified as Yugoslav and the rest identified according to ethnicity. )

The world is a lot more complicated than "show me the money and let me buy Coca Cola in peace." Unfortunately this is the American approach – as one of the guys in Full Metal Jacket said " Inside every gook there is an American trying to get out." It's why the West has been caught with it's pants around it's ankles in Middle East, Asia Pacific and Far Eastern Europe.

Egypt And United Arab Emirates Have Secretly Carried Out Libya Airstrikes

"Twice in the last seven days, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates have secretly teamed up to launch airstrikes against Islamist-allied militias battling for control of Tripoli, Libya, four senior American officials said, in a major escalation between the supporters and opponents of political Islam.

The United States, the officials said, was caught by surprise: Egypt and the Emirates, both close allies and military partners, acted without informing Washington or seeking its consent, leaving the Obama administration on the sidelines. Egyptian officials explicitly denied the operation to American diplomats, the officials said…"
Full article here
link

YouTube link

Amicalement
Armand

As Arab States Step Up To Assist Libya In It's War Against Islamists The U.S. Condemns Their Intrervention

"* Emirati warplanes secretly bombed Islamist targets in Libya's capital Tripoli
* U.S. officials say they were not told about strikes, which left them 'off-guard'
* UAE attacks seemingly a move towards direct action in Libya by Arab states
* Along with Egypt and Saudi Arabia, UAE sees Islamists as a threat to region
* Islamist dominated General National Congress named rival premier last week
* Interim government – holed up 1,000 miles from Tripoli in Tobruk – has now said it needs foreign assistance to defeat the Islamists

Libya has revealed it needs urgent foreign help defeat Islamists in the country, as U.S. officials admitted they were 'caught off guard' by airstrikes carried out by the UAE.

Using bases in Egypt, Emirati warplanes secretly bombed targets in the Libyan capital Tripoli after the country's Islamist dominated General National Congress named a rival premier early last week…"
Full article here
link

YouTube link

Amicalement
Armand

tuscaloosa and Milites are apparently correct, given reports I've heard on the news of late too.

"And the US is angry that they didn't ask our permission."

Too funny!

Apparently, we (the USA) cannot be trusted not to share that info with others, given other leaks lately.

Can't really blame the Egyptians for feeling that way, since after all, the USA did officially back Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood.

Might have been ISIS they just got hold of an airfield in Syria.

I too find it a bit amusing the US was upset with Egypt and the U.A.E. doing airstrikes on Libya and not being informed … I'm more than glad to hear any regional forces actually are going after fanatical islamists on their own … It is understandable that Libya was surprised by Egypt's & the U.A.E.'s airstrikes … however unlike some countries, they didn't violate OPSEC and told the media [and in turn the enemy !] they were going to strike …

I think any actors in that region are more than aware that there are important elections in America, in the not too distant future.

Indeed …

Why the Bombing of Tripoli Is a Game-Changer.

"If you believe the Obama administration had no idea that the United Arab Emirates and Egypt were about to launch airstrikes in Libya last week, I have a bridge you may want to buy. Egypt's reliability as a US ally may wax and wane, but the UAE has been a steady partner as well as an avid acquirer of American military hardware. The Emirati air force participated in the 2011 NATO-enforced no-fly zone over Libya that led to the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi.

It defies credulity that the Emiratis would now go behind Washington's back to launch an attack against Islamist militants who are threatening to undermine the success of the 2011 operation—especially since these latest bombings serve US interests. Some of the components of the so-called "Dawn of Libya" Islamist coalition, which took control of Tripoli in recent days, are virulently anti-American, and may have been responsible for the 2012 attack on the US consulate in Benghazi.

It's doubly hard to imagine that US and NATO satellites and radar stations in the Mediterranean would not have detected the UAE jets approaching Libyan airspace, and noted where they went after the bombing…"
Full article here
link

Amicalement
Armand

"As one patron observed last night, you need a place you can just "walk in and start playing" for the gaming scene to really survive. Somebody's basement really doesn't cut it".

It doesn't surprise me a bit, given strategic leaks of late.

Also, apparently the UAE jets were flown from Egyptian airbases, so if they had any advance notice of the attack(s) at all, it would have been rather short.

I wouldn't trust the Emirates or Saudis. They support fundamentalist but only ones that are loyal to them. Hell they created most of the current lot anyhow and are still the main sources of funding for Islamists around the world.

The militant fundamentalists have served as an outlet for frustrated citizens from the Saudi regimes for many years now. It keeps them from fermenting troubles at home.

Islamist Fighters Have Taken Over The Abandoned U.S. Embassy In Libya

"* Footage reportedly taken inside the compound shows men gathered around the embassy villa's swimming pool, with some even jumping in
* An official claims the compound is being 'safeguarded' and was not 'ransacked'
* The compound has been unoccupied since July 26 when U.S. diplomats evacuated to neighboring Tunisia under a U.S. military escort
* It comes near the two-year anniversary of the death of US ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans in Libya's second-largest city, Benghazi

Islamist militiamen stormed the residential annex of America's embassy in Tripoli on Sunday then took the time to give curious journalists in the Libyan capital a tour.

The group has taken up residence in the annex just over a month after diplomats fled to Tunisia over fears of mounting violence in the North African nation in recent months…"
Full article here
link

YouTube link

Amicalement
Armand

We know the coordinates … why no Drone/CAS strikes ?

I suspect it is considered bad form, in most circles, to destroy your own embassy.

Wouldn't look good on the nightly news, which is why the word "safeguarded" is being used as well………

Probaby … but I saw the video on CNN. A very tempting target … with all those jihadists having a pool party …

One of those Libyan MiG-21s I mentioned above has plowed into an apartment block in Tobruk.

The New Libyan AF's accident attrition rate is dismal – despite operating very few aircraft it has managed to lose a MiG-21, a Mirage F1 and a couple of Mi-8s in accidents in last couple of years.

Case of old aircraft coupled with decades of neglect and poor crew quality.