"Russia Openly Firing on Ukraine" Topic

The Pentagon is now reporting that Russian artillery units are now openly firing over the border, at Ukrainian troops.

Apparently, they are also planning to provide heavier multiple rocket launchers to Russian separatists in Ukraine as well.

Needless to say, the escalation is an unwelcome turn of events.

It will be interesting to see what effect this has on the EU's and US' sanctions vs. Russia.

Link?

This may be based on the footage the other day, extrapolated from geolocated photos indicating that the Grad launchers were based on Russian territory.

link

This is an interesting little interactive map: link

It will be interesting to see what effect this has on the EU's and US' sanctions vs. Russia.

Unless countries like Germany and Italy are willing to ditch their gas dependence on Russia, probably not much.

You can see the Russian government is getting desperate. The separatists have been pushed back fairly significantly, and without further Russian intervention, the Ukrainian government will regain control of all their territory very soon.

Closer the fight gets to the border, the more likely that there will be firing across it. That's not to say the Russian army will be firing, but separatist units will fall back over the border and keep firing from there.

This then gets messy, as there will be accusations of Ukrainian armed forces firing into Russia, even if they are merely firing back.

Lamestream media at its finest.

Link for the news article referenced above. YMMV:

link

Damon.

Sorry, don't have a link, but it is in the news, from both our Pentagon, and the US State Department.

I saw it mentioned on Yahoo's Home News Page as well.

BBC running with it now: link

Of course a lot of this is rhetoric to prevent it from happening. The US accuses Russia of sending heavy artillery, Russia denies it, so now cannot send it without looking very silly if shown to have done what they said they have not.

Elsewhere:

Ukrainian PM Yatsenyuk has resigned. It seems to be a bit of a breakdown in the coalition, but while unsettling will probably have little effect due to the way the Ukrainian constitution works. TBH his statements of late have been a little OTT, directly accusing Russia of anything and everything based on circumstantial evidence.

And Strelkov (like Borodai, a Russian citizen from Moscow. They met there together many years ago) says he has "withdrawn his fighters from the outskirts of Donetsk". Im guessing that means deeper into the city centre, as he knows the fighting will be much harder there, with a higher probability of collateral.

Perhaps, if that works, we should accuse them of threatening/invading/attacking Poland, and other nations as well.

;-)

"Perhaps, if that works, we should accuse them of threatening/invading/attacking Poland, and other nations as well."

Don't laugh. If Putin gets away with it in Ukraine, that might be next especially with NATO looking more and more like a eunuch.

And which NATO nations has Russia attacked (leaving aside state-sponsored assassinations)?

…which NATO nations has Russia attacked…

None, but the more pressure Russia puts on Ukraine, the more likely more imminent NATO membership could occur.

TBH, the chances of Ukraine joining NATO were always very, very distant, but recent actions (Crimea, Donbass, alleged incursions and shooting across the border) will place Ukraine into a position of worry that will make the Government more likely to seek membership for mutuality of protection, i.e Russia is less likely to destabilise a NATO border. Despite Obama's recent assertion that there will be no more NATO members, it remains open to discussion.

Russia has always stated that NATO membership would be a red line, Ukraine presumably not being permitted to choose whether or not she would like to join NATO.: link

Should Ukraine be permitted to join NATO, realistically what is Russia going to do? Declare war on Europe?

The Ukrainian President has been elected. The Ukrainian Parliament has not. So the stepping down of Mr Yatsenyuk makes new elections possible. Surely this is a good thing ?

CFeicht: I do not think NATO could do anything good here. We simply have to get our people back first, not only the Dutch but every victim, and as much of their property as possible. One of relatives of a Dutch victim called his (or her) mobile and an East European sounding voice responded !
In The Netherlands lots of people have asked whether or not it was possible to not use Russian gaz anymore. We use gaz thet is 95% Dutch and 5% Russian. The answer was that unfortunately the gaz cannot be separated.

Again, I seriously doubt it. If it will come to hand-drawn diagrams again, I'd just say that USA is trying to keep the pressure till the decision on EU sanctions against Russia is made next week. It might also help to justify sending lethal weapons that Ukraine have been asking for quite a time.

Before resignation of Yatsenyuk, the parliament members changed certain laws and were able to get rid of communist fraction in the parliament, disbanding the group due to it "been less than allowed by parliament charter". next they're planning to get rid of the remnants of pro-Yanukovich "party of regions" and initiate legal cases against several deputies from both fraction for "support of terrorism".
Even Ukrainian political commentators are not sure who is going to benefit from this all apart of the president himself…

It may just be a consolidation of power and removal of some of Poroshenkos most likely critics. It does remove some of the more controversial figures. Now I'd they can just stop breaking out into fisticuffs in Parliament that will do wonders to improve their global image! :-)

Yatsenyuk has always been pretty quick to directly target Russia with blame, whereas any evidence has been pretty much circumstantial (likely, but not definitively proven, often based on hearsay).

Russian TV is doing much the same thing. In Donetsk they can only get Russian TV, as confirmed by Donetsk citizens yesterday.

Now I'd they can just stop breaking out into fisticuffs in Parliament that will do wonders to improve their global image! :-)

Maybe they can persuade Vitali Klitschko to be the next speaker. I'm sure he'd be able to rein in that guy with the ponytail.

Certainly wouldn't argue more than once.

It may just be a consolidation of power and removal of some of Poroshenkos most likely critics. It does remove some of the more controversial figures. Now I'd they can just stop breaking out into fisticuffs in Parliament that will do wonders to improve their global image! :-)

Nah, it would however be an improvement over C-Span here in the US…

With Europe about to start large scale sanctions I reckon this has the potential to escalate to a full fledged Russian intervention as Russia has less and less to lose.

In the end Russia is reorienting to China, Latin America etc. Europe only loses through this wierd game of morality – it will become reliant on US for oil/gas if they close the Russian pipleine.

Funny how Europe and USA thinks it's perfectly acceptable to arm jihadists in Syria or act as the Libyan jihadists air force but Russia is bad for getting involved in Ukraine?

"Europe only loses through this wierd game of morality"

Boy, you must have really been dismayed in Sep '39, when Great Britain and France honored their treaty with Poland and declared war on the Third Reich!

"Funny how Europe and USA thinks it's perfectly acceptable to arm jihadists in Syria or act as the Libyan jihadists air force but Russia is bad for getting involved in Ukraine?"

Funny how Russia thinks it's horrible to arm rebels in Syria, but fine to destabilize Ukraine with arms and fighters.

Boy, you must have really been dismayed in Sep '39, when Great Britain and France honored their treaty with Poland and declared war on the Third Reich!

Funny they didn't declare war on USSR, which invaded Poland at the same time.

And then they just let USSR take over Poland for the next 45 odd years.

Wierd game of morality indeed.

And to make it even wierder, West supported Soviet invasion of democratic and neutral Finland, thus forcing them into Germany's arms.

Funny how Russia thinks it's horrible to arm rebels in Syria, but fine to destabilize Ukraine with arms and fighters

Never said Russians weren't hypocrites. West just appears to be more so.

After all West has just spent 10+ years waging war on jihadis who attacked them and then all of a sudden gives them arms and flies air support for them. And then they get their knickers in a knot over Russians trying to influence a situation in a part of the world that was for a couple of hundred years Russian and where a sizeable Russian minority lives!

At least the Russians have always been relatively open about their obsession with their security blanket – even a cursory glance at their history shows this obsession driving their foreign policy. And they have far more claim in Ukraine from an ethnic, defence, strategic and economic standpoint than what USA and Chums have in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan or Libya.

Westerners forget that modern Ukraine is only 23 years old and was since the 1650s an integral part of Russia, be it the Russian Empire or USSR. In many ways modern Ukraine is a modern invention, created after fall of USSR. The same applies to virtually all the African and Middle Eastern countries – this is why they never worked in the first place.

Anyhow, hammering Russia economically might result in the bear behaving in an unpredictable manner.

Invading Ukraine is one. Other's include ramping up Syria or Iran.

The third involves war on Europe itself much like in 1914 when Europe "sleep walked" into war.

So we're cool with the "no politics on TMP" rule, right?

The Cold War gets a little hotter …

Westerners forget that modern Ukraine is only 23 years old and was since the 1650s an integral part of Russia, be it the Russian Empire or USSR. In many ways modern Ukraine is a modern invention, created after fall of USSR. The same applies to virtually all the African and Middle Eastern countries – this is why they never worked in the first place.

Modern day Ukraine has not been "an integral part of Russia" since the 1650's. Most of the lands west of the Dnieper remained in Polish hands until the 2nd partition of Poland in 1793 and large parts of Galicia was never ruled by Imperial Russia at all but was "aquired" when the Soviets took large chunks of Poland in 1945.

Thomas – you'll notice that when the West arms rebels, we don't give them sophisticated SAMs…

The reason why we didn't declare war on Russia in 1939 was that Russia was advancing to the Curzon Line which was the internationally recognised Russo-POlish border.

i.e. it was retaking territory lost in 1919-1920.

After 1945 we were simply too exhausted to do anything about it.

Your understanding of the situation in Syria shows a similar lack of reading.

Now what does this have to do with Russia invading another nation and seizing territory illegally?

Stinger POST, Mujahadeen, cough, cough!

"Anyhow, hammering Russia economically might result in the bear behaving in an unpredictable manner."

True. Whereas not hammering Russia economically will result in the bear behaving in a perfectly predictable and consequential manner: more land grabs, more destabilization of its neighbors, and more disregarding of treaty obligations, all in order to feed a rabid nationalism at home, when Putin knows perfectly well the Russian economy has nothing to sustain itself beyond selling natural gas and oil.

And, now it's official (though a bit late in reporting), they've violated the nuke cruise missile treaty.

How long, beyond a superficially telegenic period, will these sanctions last?

link

I think they'll last. There are those in Europe (especially Brtian and Poland) and the Americans really want a new cold war. The Americans also clearly view China as an enemy as well and aren't making any attempts to defuse the situation in the Asia-Pacific but instead are throwing fuel into the fire by openly supporting the Philippines and Japanese rearmament (which also scare the South Koreas and other Asians).

All of this started long before Ukraine and even before Georgia. Basically as soon as Russia and China started making any sort of resurgence in terms of international power, the Americans and Brits were starting to make moves against Russia and China. However Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE etc can continue to do as they please even if destabilises the entire middle east.

I guess someone that pulls the strings must have shares in Lockheed Martin and EADS as well as royal titles in certain Persian Gulf states.

Guess that's why !

"Ukrainian forces bombarding rebels at Pervomaisk on Thursday"

Appear to be using SPG-9s

Ukrainian Soldiers Reveal What Life is Like On The Battlefield In Eastern Ukraine

"The calls home from the front line are very brief, often just two words conveying all that really matters.

"I'm alive," Marina Bershadskaya's little brother, Sergey, tells her. Then he hangs up to pass the communal cellphone to one of his fellow paratroopers in the 79th Airborne Brigade deployed to Ukraine's border with Russia.

It has been this way for almost three months, especially in the past few weeks, amid a major Ukrainian offensive against pro-Russian rebels in the east. Even as each day brings new Ukrainian gains and the map of rebel-held territory shrinks, the calls have seeded a gnawing fear in the families of troops positioned in the thin, treacherous buffer zone between Ukraine and Russia in the rebel strongholds of Donetsk and Luhansk…"
Full article here
link

Amicalement
Armand

As if the tensions in that area were not enough, Russia has just announced a major air exercise…

link

"Russia's defence ministry has announced it is holding military exercises this week involving 100 aircraft in the west of the country near the Ukraine border. He said it would involve Sukhoi Su-27 and MiG-31 fighter jets, Mi-24 and Mi-28 helicopters and Russia's newest frontline bomber, the Sukhoi Su-34. "

Possibly not the wisest decision in a tense area with air units and SAMs already in play. Just imagine the scenario if a separatist unit shoots down a Russian fighter…

Them Russkies lead by former KGB ! What a hoot !!!! They could land a Bde in NJ and deny it and many would believe them !!!!

Oops !!!! Double post ! It must be them Damn Russkies trying hack me !!!?!!?! Curse you Snowden !!!!!!!!!!!!!

A story is emerging that between 300 and 400 Ukrainian soldiers have crossed the Russian border. It appears that after an intense firefight they ran out of ammunition and, in falling back, we're left with crossing into Russia where they were detained (under mixed reports, some saying as defectors, others as having changed sides).

Galina had reports many weeks ago that the Ukrainian army was limited in what action it could take, quite simply because soldiers were issued with only 10 rounds each, although I suspect that was national guard units. This seems to have been part of the regular army which, if the crossing point is correct, were quite some way round the back of the separatist rebels.

What's good for the goose should be good for the gander.

TMP link

Dan
PS. If political opinions about a specific middle eastern country are not allowed, same should go with political opinions about any other nation, right?

I'm now in western Ukraine. Life here is pretty much going on as normal. I took a walk down into town yesterday, through the market.

No armed bandits on the streets, no armoured vehicles. Not even any signs of a nationalistic movement, despite being in the deepest heartland of the alleged Right Sector (this is the city where Sashko Bily, the alleged Right Sector leader, was shot), and just over a stones throw away from Lviv.

Actually, haven't seen a single nationalist symbol. There are a few Ukrainian flags about, but about the same as normal. Not a single bandera flag yet, and certainly no nazi symbology. Svoboda and Right Sector are clearly doing a good job of being secret organisations.

The market is busy, plenty of people, plenty of meat, fish, vegetables and other non-grocery products.

Family and friends talking yesterday of a mashrutka -one of the little minibuses – bring attacked by gunmen over in Poltava. 19 killed. It wasn't Ukrainian army, or Russian army, or even separatist-rebels… bandits, rogue gun-armed bandits is where the blame is being laid, and the view here seems to be that is what you have in the east. Not the people of Donetsk and Lughansk, but mafiosa-style bandits carving out territory

link

Investigators in Russia have announced the arrest of five Ukrainian army officers for alleged war crimes… The officers from Ukraine's 72nd Mechanised Brigade are apparently among hundreds of soldiers who crossed into Russia to flee from pro-Russian rebels.

They were detained as part of an investigation into the "use of banned means and methods of conducting war", the SK said.

They are accused of using heavy weapons to bombard two towns in Luhansk region, Krasnopartizansk and Krasnodon, between 19 July and 3 August, killing "at least 10 civilians" and destroying homes.

I notice that they have not declared it to be against Russian homes, Russian citizens or even ethnic Russian Ukrainians. I'm not familiar with war crimes legislation – does it need some sort of UN backing, or can one country simply prosecute citizens of another for war crimes?