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"Russia Considering ‘Surgical Strike’ on Ukraine" Topic


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EJNashIII17 Jul 2014 8:42 p.m. PST

Makes you wonder if tough guy Putin is actually in charge. Christ, we could be seeing mushroom clouds if it happened to be an American airliner. Even so, the hawks will be after blood if American bodies are in the wreckage.

Number617 Jul 2014 9:33 p.m. PST

"I can't believe the Russians would be that stupid."

Or that Hitler would be that stupid. Or Milosevic that stupid. Or Pol Pot that stupid. Or Saddam that stupid. Or Assad that stupid.

Stupidity and dictators go hand in hand.

Lion in the Stars17 Jul 2014 10:52 p.m. PST

Difference is that Putin has not shown the kinds of megalomania that Hitler, Stalin, Milosevic, Pol Pot, or Saddam did.

Trying to bring his country back to 'peer competitor with the US'? Absolutely. Can't really blame him for that, I'd be all sorts of Bleeped texted if my country went from #2 in the world down to below the China of 20 years ago, too!

Barin118 Jul 2014 3:54 a.m. PST

we'll be seeing all sorts of very weird accustaions till the commission publish the reuslts of invstigation, and even after…
For instance, now Ukrainian military is claiming again that rebels were not able to get a hold of any BUK units from the army – implying that BUKS were shipped from Russia.
Russian military reports radar signatures of several Ukrainia BUK installations around Donetsk during last days.
I guess in the end all proofs or "proofs" should be put on the table, and thoroughly inspected.
It will be worth noting, that Ukrainian authorities several times reported full control of Russian/Ukrainian border, so I wonder how heavy stuff can cross it from Russia then…
Still, there's also a high chance that the plane was shot by rebels…If what US press reports about some satellite images of SAM launch is real, we can at least verify, was it from within Ukraine, or from Russian territory, or, from the plane.
Lots of questions – why all previous flights of the same destination were going much further to South, closer to Zaporozhye…do we have any valid confirmation of military planes in the airspace at the time of the explosion…radar signatures?
Investigation of debris at least might give an answer, whether it was SAM or AA launched from another plane.

GeoffQRF18 Jul 2014 4:22 a.m. PST

Rumours that the black boxes have been found and are now in Moscow – I doubt they will show much, other than a catastrophic failure, rapid decompression and complete breakup. There was no mayday, but the pilots would be working on aviate, navigate, communicate (assuming the damage didn't simply destroy tyhe flight deck area).

Ukraine has shown alleged (grainy) footage of Buk launcher in the hands of separatists. I suspect Russia will not want to take the hit on this in any way (even if it was fired from Russia) and put this squarely back onto the separatists, who are the most likely culprits. This will severely damage public opinion.

This is a major airway, and was only closed below FL310. Some flights had chosen to divert, but many were still using it until this incident: link

notaminfo.com/latest

Barin118 Jul 2014 5:20 a.m. PST

Lavrov has told that Moscow will not be taking black boxes, and insisted that they should be inspected by international investigators. However they can only prove that it was an external hit, and not an explosion within Boeing airplane…

Personal logo Legion 4 Supporting Member of TMP18 Jul 2014 8:12 a.m. PST

And the "surgery" continues …

GeoffQRF18 Jul 2014 10:19 a.m. PST

Still not seeing anything confirming the loss of a second AN-26

Barin118 Jul 2014 11:21 a.m. PST

I'm also interested in seeing anything, but I suppose we have to wait till the commission will start work around the crash site of Boeing. Ukrainians are not too fast in reporting their losses sometimes…
I also wonder why western media is not reporting dire situation of big chunk of government troops that was trying to cut rebels from Russian border and ended up surrounded and heavily beaten. Non-confirmed image of supposed order of Avakov lists 1600 KIA and 4723 wounded soldiers, as well as 500 citizens KIA and 762 wounded between 9th and 15th of July…lots of heavy armor changed hands as well…rebels see this victory so important that they initially wanted only to cease fire over crash site…I wonder if they and government troops will agree to complete cease fire now, but looks like the fight intensifies again, as the government troops started massive counterattack.

Found a site with very detailed hourly update of the fight from the rebel point of view:
link

link

there's a video in the mid page, showing downing of a plane…but it looks more like AN than Boeing, engine sound is different – heard AN's many times – and it is definitely lower than 10 km. Also, lots od shooting and it will be useless to shoot a plane at high altitude with machine gun, or assault rifle.

GeoffQRF18 Jul 2014 2:13 p.m. PST

US President Barack Obama has said a surface-to-air missile fired from a rebel-held area in east Ukraine brought down Malaysia Airlines flight MH17.

I'm assuming he would not be so blatant if they didn't have satellite links to back that up (and you can be sure they have satellites tasked over that area).

The SBU intercepts (alleged) Galina was listening to today suggest it was launched from a unit at the 'blockpost' – a term used to mean the border crossing. The intercepts suggest that a Russian Cossack unit fired the missile, then sent separatists to find out what they had hit.

Cant see any reports, or western, Ukrainian or other sites, of any massive losses. Note that much of the footage is library shots of the same vehicles moving, nothing actually of the action, so it starts to sound like a propaganda attempt to manipulate the media for the local population.

rebels see this victory so important that they initially wanted only to cease fire over crash site

Really? I thought that at least one of the 'leaders' had declared "there will be no ceasefire"

GeoffQRF18 Jul 2014 3:28 p.m. PST

I also wonder why western media is not reporting dire situation of big chunk of government troops that was trying to cut rebels from Russian border

On the contrary, they are reporting significant gains: link

Ukraine's defence minister says part of the rebel-held eastern city of Luhansk has been retaken by government forces. Valeriy Heletey said government troops had captured the south-eastern section and had surrounded the airport.

tuscaloosa18 Jul 2014 4:49 p.m. PST

"Difference is that Putin has not shown the kinds of megalomania that Hitler, Stalin, Milosevic, Pol Pot, or Saddam did."

He's starting out exactly the same way. In fact, the usurpation of the Crimea parallels closely one of Hitler's first power grabs, the Memelland.

Barin118 Jul 2014 10:43 p.m. PST

Rebels are denying that government troops have taken Luhansk (however it might mean that they have gained the ground in the city), they have reported massive shelling and storming last evening and whole night. Unfortunately it seems that the government still using the same tactics as before without caring much where the shells are falling. City council of Luhansk reports more than 20 civilians killed.
WARNING:graphic images…
YouTube link


picture

picture

Ceasefire over crash site was observed, in other regions both sides continued the war.
There's a number of questions to these intercepts. One has a time stamp of a day before the liner was down (it can be checked in file properties), another sounds like it is made from two different parts.
You know what Buk is, its size et all. You have also seen what a blockpost is – makeshift barrier of tyres, cars am concrete, very often far away from buildings where in theory you can hide your SAM. Also, why would one of the few SAMS yoi have will be staying in the middle of nowhere?
You'd be using it to protect something that really matters – as per its supposed function.
As I said, all proofs and "proofs" should be doublechecked.
To my mind, Obama wants to press a point before the results of investigations are known to put those Europeans, who're still against wide sanctions against Russia in line. If the sanctions are there, any later result of investigations doesn't matter.
At least his statement puts an end to even wilder speculations that the plane was downed by Russian army from behind the border…

GeoffQRF19 Jul 2014 2:10 a.m. PST

Ceasefire over crash site was observed

Sort of. Some mixed reports that investigators were driven away by a [drunk] rebel firing his weapon in the air and have been prevented from investigating further.

Galina says blockpost is the term used for the border crossing, not just a makeshift barrier.

Some of those photos are from the other week, not from action taken this week.

Just watching that video – it's one small courtyard shot from different angles.

From your link above: YouTube link This is a separatist site, showing them firing Grad launchers… and from teh conversation taking place, not having a clue how to operate the thing properly (which may explain why they are hitting things all over the place).

Bangorstu19 Jul 2014 3:48 a.m. PST

Noe more reports in the Guardian of the investigation team being hindered by rebels, and bodies being looted…

Aristonicus19 Jul 2014 6:15 a.m. PST

I'm assuming he would not be so blatant if they didn't have satellite links to back that up (and you can be sure they have satellites tasked over that area).

They don't.

In Anthony H. Cordesman's very recent article he writes:

"U.S. and Ukrainian surveillance assets are unclear. U.S. imagery satellites do not detect this kind of missile launch. Depending on U.S. SIGINT and ELINT assets, the United States might or might not get data on radar detection and tracking."

link to the complete article:

csis.org/publication/downing-malaysian-airliner-avoid-rushing-judgment

In other developments reported by the BBC:

15:29: Ukraine's SBU security service has confiscated recordings of conversations between Ukrainian air traffic control officers and the crew of the doomed airliner, a source in Kiev has told Interfax news agency.

bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-28360784

If true…..

tuscaloosa19 Jul 2014 3:50 p.m. PST

"They don't."

Blanket, incorrect statement, not useful to the discussion at hand.

Also defies belief, in the fifth month of this crisis, to boldly pronounce that U.S. satellites are not tasked over the area.

The link to the article doesn't support the statement, either.

Aristonicus19 Jul 2014 4:27 p.m. PST

What I meant was "they don't" was this – Cordesman said the Satellites they have over the Ukraine cannot detect SAM launches. Therefore Obama doesn't have evidence from them one way or the other. He may have other evidence e.g. from SIGINT – just not from Satellites.

Lion in the Stars19 Jul 2014 5:10 p.m. PST

There's a couple orders of magnitude difference between a strategic ballistic missile and a tactical SAM in terms of exhaust energy (not to mention how long the motor burns).

It's certainly possible and maybe even probable that the US ICBM-launch-detection satellites don't have the resolution necessary to detect and track SAM launches. For all I know, that might be below the alert threshold. Detectable, but not a strong enough signal to bother sending an alert to the bosses back in DC.

I suspect that such capability will be demanded in the next generation of early-warning satellites.

However, I'm speaking strictly of the ballistic missile early warning satellites. Other satellites probably DO have the capability of detecting and tracking a SAM launch.

GeoffQRF19 Jul 2014 5:59 p.m. PST

I doubt a SAM would trigger a monitoring satellite, otherwise it would go off with every fire, flash and factory heat source.

However it is highly likely that 'other' satellites are watching the area closely, after all we already know they are watching troop buildups on the border, and the SAM was allegedly launched from on or near the border.

Is the AWACS still flying duty over Poland?

tuscaloosa19 Jul 2014 7:35 p.m. PST

"Cordesman said the Satellites they have over the Ukraine cannot detect SAM launches."

No, he didn't say this either. You really should be more precise in parsing your arguments and evidence.

And tip: the U.S. has many more types of satellites besides imagery satellites, although imagery are usually what people immediately think of.

Barin119 Jul 2014 9:44 p.m. PST

Blockpost is a road checkpoint. Border crossing point is called KPP, or kontrolno-propusknoy punkt,
Blockposts were set on the roads during the conflict by both sides to prevent the movement of opponents. I've typed in google "blockposts on Ukrainian roads" (in Russian)to be precise
блокпосты на дорогах украины
link
now, you can check for yourself if it is a suitable place to hide your high-value SAM system.
As for the link – if you ask Galina to read description on youtube or the site itself you'll learn that the video shows operation of Ukrainian Grad, it was upoaded by Ukrainian soldier to social media site first….

GeoffQRF20 Jul 2014 2:36 a.m. PST

While the dictionary term may simply mean checkpoint, it is colloquially used (certainly within Ukraine) to describe border control stations.

This would be more typical:

picture

…a suitable place to hide your high-value SAM system

Блокпост also turns up this image:

picture

So not much of a stretch of the imagination to think that a SAM system may also be positioned nearby, especially in the operational environment of that region, close to the Russian border.

They are not all like this:

picture

Some are more like this:

picture

There is not much in that region, outside of the main cities it is pretty much open country with few main roads, and all under separatist control, so m=not much reason for roadblocks or checkpoints, unless they are stopping Russians from coming up the road?

GeoffQRF20 Jul 2014 5:23 a.m. PST

Not quite sure what this means:

"Meanwhile, fighting is continuing in eastern Ukraine, with Reuters news agency reporting that Ukrainian positions were fired on twice from across border with Russia."

If separatists, or indeed Russian army, are shooting from over the border then Russia needs to get a handle on this quite quickly.

Barin120 Jul 2014 8:07 a.m. PST

That's why I've used search for blockposts on Ukrainian roads, and not those in Checnya or Ossetia , that are there for many years (that's your picture with the tank under Russian flag).
If it was stationed at the border, then it will not have the range to reach the plane. Moreover, Ukrainian officials themselves are claiming that the missile was fired from Torez or now, Snezhnoye. Torez (and Snezhnoye)are not located at the border, but who cares about facts when the decision already made…

picture

picture

Coming back to the pic of supposed culprit BUK moving to Russian border..
First, the launcher misteriously has the same number 312 as one of the Ukrainian BUks, relocated near Gorlovka:
link
Also, checking a banner with the car from the picture, presented by Ukrainian government it was found that it shows an adress of autoshop…in Krasnoarmeisk, and the town under control of Ukrainian army from May.
Now Ukraine announced, that they have their own satellite images…I wonder when they were able to launch their own satellite.
Disclamer: I'm not ruling out, that separatists fired the missile. But at the moment we haven't seen any real proof of it. We need the commission to work, and publish the results to condemn those, who're really responsible for the tragedy.

tuscaloosa20 Jul 2014 9:02 a.m. PST

A meaningful investigation relies on the complete and immediate cooperation of the armed people on the ground at the location of the tragedy.

TV broadcasts show that the only authority on the ground are separatists, some of whom appear to be drunk, waving rifles around, threatening OSCE observers and dragging bodies from one unrefrigerated storage point to another.

Other, unconfirmed reports are that credit cards of the victims have been used in the past day.

So, other than looting the dead and destroying evidence, what exactly are the Russian citizens who claim on social media and in TV interviews that they are the officials of the breakaway "republics" doing to assist the investigation?

Barin120 Jul 2014 10:24 a.m. PST

As reported,most of the victims at the moment are in refrigerator railroad cars and the order is established.
link

On one hand, you should not move the bodies, on the other side in the heat the bodies start to decompose fast.
According to rebels statement,they have been waiting for international commission to visit the site, but for some reason what is more or less safe for OSCE monitors and numerous press is not considered safe for international investigators by Kiev government, stating that it can't guarantee their safety (fair enough, but how about bringing them to the border of rebel's zone of control?)
However I'm not surprised that marauders might be there faster than commission….

GeoffQRF20 Jul 2014 11:21 a.m. PST

As reported,most of the victims at the moment are in refrigerator railroad cars and the order is established

There still seems to be a question where they are being moved to, but there does now appear to be some site security. Unfortunately there has been a lot of site contamination, which may not be proof of anything untoward, but automatically opens them up to criticism of manipulating the evidence.

On one hand, you should not move the bodies, on the other side in the heat the bodies start to decompose fast

That is a difficult one. Normally they want the bodies left/marked to be able to log them for the accident investigation, but with temperatures in the high 30s there now they need to be stored as quickly as possible. There seems to be the usual contradictory statements, reports of bodies being moved, and other reporting bodies being left uncovered and exposed. Local people (with good stomachs) are understandibly trying to help by moving/covering them as soon as possible out of dignity.

One of the rebel leaders in Donetsk has apparently said the plane's black-box flight recorders have been found, although that story seems to swing back and forth. It is not curently known where they are and, if found, presumably have been removed from the site. Again, they may be trying to be helpful, rather than intentionally (or unintentionally) interfering. Paranoia remains high.

The BBC have posted 'the blame game' exploring twitter trends: link

GeoffQRF20 Jul 2014 12:28 p.m. PST

At least one of the black boxes does appear to have been found:
link

Not sure, but it looks like the Flight Data Recorder.

"Alexander Borodai said the devices had been taken to Donetsk, the biggest rebel-held city in the east."

Not a good idea, as once again it opens them up to suggestions of [attempted] tampering. They need to be surrendered, unopened, as soon as possible.

Deadone20 Jul 2014 4:48 p.m. PST

Or that Hitler would be that stupid. Or Milosevic that stupid. Or Pol Pot that stupid. Or Saddam that stupid. Or Assad that stupid.

Stupidity and dictators go hand in hand.

I didn't know George W. Bush, John F. Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson or Anthony Eden or Guy Mollet or Charles de Gaulle were dictators? All did some stupid things – Iraq 2003, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Suez or Algeria.

GeoffQRF21 Jul 2014 5:09 a.m. PST

Hearing what sounds like a barrage #Grad rockets being fired near #donetsk station. Black smoke nearby.

"An armed pro-Russian separatist lies on the ground near the train station in Donetsk, where fierce fighting has been reported."

AFP photo:

picture

Rebels on the way to the front line tell the BBC that militiamen have destroyed three Ukrainian tanks near Donetsk airport.

map of Donetsk here: link

Airport is to the north. Station is towards the north, just off Artemivska Street. Wecams seems all quiet though, so it is evidentaly localised on the outskirts to the north.

Personal logo Legion 4 Supporting Member of TMP21 Jul 2014 8:04 a.m. PST

No clean hands Thomas … no clean hands …

GeoffQRF21 Jul 2014 8:29 a.m. PST

The National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine has tweeted that Ukrainian troops have entered Dzerzhynsk, Rubizhne and Soledar. That's about a 70km front.

Tango01 Supporting Member of TMP21 Jul 2014 9:50 p.m. PST

Inside the Battle to Crush Ukraine's Rebel Capital…

"Heavy fighting broke out in downtown Donetsk, the industrial capital of eastern Ukraine, at about 10:00 this morning. Much of the combat centered on the Zapadnaya railway and bus stations. Rebels blocked the roads. Constant artillery blasts could be heard in the residential area around the station.

At almost the same moment, Dutch experts arrived in war-torn eastern Ukraine to investigate the MH17 catastrophe, but managed to make their way towards the crash scene to examine the victims' bodies.

Clearly, all of the statements from Moscow and Kiev about a cease-fire for the period of the investigation have been forgotten. Rebels reinforced their positions in Donetsk, bringing tanks and armored personnel carriers closer to the railway station on Panfilova Avenue. Glass was blown out of the windows of five-story buildings on Slavatskaya Street. Local radio reported that the Ukrainian military blew up railroad tracks and blocked approaches to the city…"
Full article here
link

Amicalement
Armand

GeoffQRF22 Jul 2014 6:24 a.m. PST

This is apparently a 'rocket strike'

picture

The 'Grad' is 122mm rocket, nearly 10 feet long with a 20-25kg warhead. Does that look big enough for that type of system?

Could it me a mortar?

The 'hole' looks too…. neat, with no crater, no debris, no burn marks?

Lion in the Stars22 Jul 2014 3:32 p.m. PST

Any cluster warheads for a Grad rocket?

Steve Wilcox22 Jul 2014 3:53 p.m. PST

Any cluster warheads for a Grad rocket?

Apparently:
link
link
link
link

Milites22 Jul 2014 4:14 p.m. PST

I'd expect cluster munitions to detonate quite closely around each other, but this photo shows no othersigns of similar disturbance.

Fred Cartwright23 Jul 2014 12:09 p.m. PST

Washington are apparently now confirming that they tracked the launch from rebel held territory according to this yahoo article.

link

GeoffQRF23 Jul 2014 2:16 p.m. PST

I get the impression that they don't want to give away just how closely they have been monitoring the area, and how good the quality of surveillance is.

link

"I will say this about our satellites: They are very good satellites. They are very sensitive and they are very accurate."

General Shelton, commander of Air Force Space Command, would only confirm that Air Force Space Command can track strategic missiles. He said the Air Force has the capability to see smaller missiles and test activity from space, "but beyond that we can't talk about."

They do seem pretty certain that they know exactly where it was launched from. One of the problems is the large stretch of unsecured border (unless someone is going to try and claim that the Ukrainian government is somehow keeping their Border Officers active in a stretch of land under control of armed gunmen who want Russia to come to their aid… you know, I don't think so) :-)

picture

[Image is slightly old now, as the area north of Horlivka-Lughansk is pretty much under Government control now.]

The data recorders will likely show little more than a sudden and catastrophic loss of all flight systems, rapid decompression and immediate loss of structural integrity. If it was a missile, it is unlikely the crew knew anything about it, there are no radar warning receivers on civilian aircraft to warn of radar tracking, missile lock or proximity to a missile. The cockpit voice recorder might indicate a 'bang' and rapid loss of situational control as the unarmoured, thin-skinned aircraft ripped itself apart around them, but it is unlikely that they would be able to identify why it occurred.

Physical evidence may confirm a missile attack. Recent photos clearly indicate multiple small puncture marks entering the aircraft from the outside – note that the tears are clearly from inward impacts, so less likely to have been a bomb on board as that would have torn the skin outwards. Foster (Janes Defense Analyst) has said,"The shrapnel damage is different from what would be expected after an aircraft-engine explosion… which would have caused longer, thinner, oblique tears across the aircraft skin, with a slight hump toward the point where the fragment entered the skin, rather than the majority of punctures present." Professional investigators, like the AAIB, can distinguish this type of damage and should be able to confirm the likely point of primary impact – anything forward of the wing would make an engine issue almost impossible, and point directly towards a missile. An explosion near the cockpit area could have caused rapid amd massive decompression with the loss of both active flight crew. A tear in the skin here would cause the aircraft to simply self destruct as the air (at 600+mph and 33,000 feet) tore through it.

They will also be able to ascertain the likely size of a missile, which will make it clear whether something like a Buk (SA-11/SA-17) surface to air missile was used, or as Russia suddenly attempted to claim the other day (in a little 'after the fact' desperation) an air-to-air missile fired from a Ukrainian jet fighter. The Buk missile is approx 5.5 metres long with a 70kg warhead, the R-27 AAM (AA-10 Alamo), as carried on the Ukrainian MiG29 and Su27 is 4 metres long with a 39kg warhead. AAIB should be able to distinguish the difference from the type and volume of damage. Why a Ukrainian Air Force jet would open fire on a large jet flying at 33,000 feet when the separatists do not have any air force, is not explained… they have tried to claim the Ukrainian army thought it was a Russian jet, but as ATC had been in contact with it as it had flown across the entire territory of Ukraine that clearly makes no sense.

picture

It is unlikely this was an intentional shoot down, it would be inconceivable to think that anyone had deliberately targeted an innocent civilian airliner. The most likely result is misidentification (intended military airliner) by incompetent [separatist] operators who were unable to use the systems on the tracking radar or the missile radar to interrogate the aircraft transponder, which would have identified it as a civilian airliner. As US intelligence has also come out with today, it would be pretty much impossible to prove if the finger on the trigger was a Russian soldier, or a separatist, but I would expect a professional soldier to have known how to use the system and correctly interrogate the transponder (which would have been active for IFR/airways flight and known to Ukrainian ATC).

[One of] Girkin's claims that they were all already dead on board just makes any argument he offers even less plausible…

Lion in the Stars23 Jul 2014 3:01 p.m. PST

I'd expect cluster munitions to detonate quite closely around each other, but this photo shows no othersigns of similar disturbance.
So would I, but you always see statistically-improbable events in combat…

GeoffQRF23 Jul 2014 3:20 p.m. PST

Two Ukrainian fighters lost today, Ukrainian government stating that "allegedly, the second fighter jet was shot down by the air-to-air missile, it means it was shot down by another fighter jet, and definitely not Ukrainian"

Waiting to see how this pans out.

Deadone23 Jul 2014 6:05 p.m. PST

Didn't the Ruskis already bag a Ukranian Su-25 previously with a MiG-29?

Barin123 Jul 2014 10:28 p.m. PST

I seriously doubt that there was a russian fighter, it looks more like a fast made explanation how the planes were down if the Buks were really back in Russia. We don't know now at what height exactly the planes were shot, so it might just as well be Strela units that rebels have in their arsenal.
However, it seems that we're approaching the situation when both Donetsk and Luhansk we' ll be stormed, or abandoned by the rebels in less than 2 weeks. Unfortunately, more casualties are on the way.

GeoffQRF23 Jul 2014 11:18 p.m. PST

…so it might just as well be Strela units that rebels have in their arsenal

I would have said that was the most likely scenario in both these recent cases. They have openly admitted they have the Strela-10 (SA-13 Gopher): link

picture

The SA-13 is used by both the Russians and Ukrainians, and would have been part of the standard Ukrainian force in bases that the separatists stormed in Lughnask some time ago.

…approaching the situation when both Donetsk and Luhansk we' ll be stormed, or abandoned by the rebels in less than 2 weeks

There was a question why the Government had continued to press on the separatists at this time. Seemed pretty obvious to me – with the general opinion that MH17 had been shot down by a separatist surface to air missile (certainly across most of Ukraine), they have acted while public opinion is saying "do whatever you need to sort them out, as fast as possible"

Friends in Kharkiv report a lot of people from eastern Ukraine now on the streets (strange, people fearing that western Ukraine are out to kill them are seeking shelter in western Ukraine?). These are displaced citizens of Donetsk region who are avoiding the fighting, but have no friends or relatives to stay with. Petty crime is one the increase as they do whatever they can to feed themselves, but the money is running out and they expect to see an increase in crime as people fight to survive. Our friends car was already stripped of its wheels.

Meanwhile, separatist leader Alexander Borodai has admitted in a BBC interview that he is a resident of Moscow (Ukraine does not have dual nationality, so any claims that he holds both Russian and Ukrainian nationality are not correct) and that he has had "…contact with other members of the secret services in Russia – as, he said, would anyone 'who has dealings with the elite of society'."

Not sure what that last bit means.

He said he has become a leader by fate, and elsewhere admitted that he was active in Crimea before coming here.

He claims that the separatists did not have, and have never had any Buk missile launchers. "No, we didn't get a Buk. There were no Buks in the area" he told the BBC's Gabriel Gatehouse.

He initially denied knowledge of photographs allegedly showing the presence of a Buk launcher in the nearby town of Snezhoe, before saying that such photographs were fake. (He did not deny the photos were in Snezhoe).

If the US is able to produce verifiable satellite imagery of the Buk, showing its location within separtist held territory, I guess that would see a rapid loss of credibility in his claims (unless he is then claiming the Government drove it into separatist held Snezhoe, fired it at the airliner and drove it out without his knowledge?)

GeoffQRF24 Jul 2014 2:27 a.m. PST

link

"A powerful Ukrainian rebel leader has confirmed that pro-Russian separatists had an anti-aircraft missile of the type Washington says was used to shoot down Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 and it could have originated in Russia.

In an interview with Reuters, Alexander Khodakovsky, commander of the Vostok Battalion, acknowledged for the first time since the airliner was brought down in eastern Ukraine on Thursday that the rebels did possess the BUK missile system and said it could have been sent back subsequently to remove proof of its presence."

Is he thinking of switching sides?

Aristonicus24 Jul 2014 6:44 a.m. PST

Pro-rebel sites reported he 'fled' from Donetsk with some of his men back on the 9th of July – the rest of the Vostok Battalion went over to Strelkov after he broke out of Slavyansk. Some discussion here:

niqnaq.wordpress.com/2014/07/09/there-seems-to-be-a-problem-with-this-alexander-khodakovsky

He was interviewed before this – it appeared in the New York Times June 4:

mobile.nytimes.com/2014/06/05/world/europe/in-ukraine-separatist-militia-with-russian-fighters-holds-a-key.html?_r=3&referrer=

Mako1124 Jul 2014 1:52 p.m. PST

Russians are now openly firing artillery across the border, into Ukraine, targeting their military units in the area.

Rabelais24 Jul 2014 2:36 p.m. PST

Also, checking a banner with the car from the picture, presented by Ukrainian government it was found that it shows an adress of autoshop…in Krasnoarmeisk, and the town under control of Ukrainian army from May.

The Russians appear to be lying. They didn't show the actual wording on the sign, they merely put what they said it was in a red bubble. Which isn't the same as the actual advert.

You can see from this sign in rebel-controlled Luhansk, (not Krasnoarmeysk), that the wording on the billboard is quite different from what the Russian spokesman claimed. There are other landmarks in the video that tally with the location being Luhansk. One can see why the Russians might find this inconvenient.


marcin250125 Jul 2014 7:02 a.m. PST

Here's this place and the billboard in Lugansk:

picture

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