"Pro-Russia Rebels Prepare Last Stand In East Ukraine " Topic

"Ukraine neared a final showdown with pro-Russia rebels, after Kiev forced insurgents to retreat to the last major cities they control and Moscow showed no signs of intervening to help them.

On Sunday, Ukraine said it plans to lay siege to Donetsk, a regional capital of one million residents that is the political and economic center of eastern Ukraine, and pursue rebels who fled there from Slovyansk, which had been the base of rebel military resistance in the region until government forces recaptured it over the weekend.

Rebel forces, meanwhile, also appeared to be readying themselves for a fight for Donetsk, the proclaimed capital of their breakaway republic…"
Full article here
link

Amicalement
Armand

Quite surprising. Putin's Russia has been shown to be gutless in the end.

Crimea was easy – Russia came up against an unstable Ukranian government and they already had thousands of troops on the ground.

But as soon as the West started applying even minor sanctions, the Russian will collapsed.

NATO should now go hell for leather and draw Ukraine, Georgia and whoever else wants in into NATO.

I'd also be slamming even more sanctions on Russia.

Isolated and economically crippled, Russia stops being a global problem just like in the 1990s.

The Europeans just need to give up their Russian oil/gas habit.

Ultimately eliminating Putin and then propping up third rate cretins like Yeltsin would be the ultimate end game, but probably out of the capability of Western intelligence services.

What happened to the carrot?

"Ultimately eliminating Putin and then propping up third rate cretins like Yeltsin would be the ultimate end game"

What is life like in Libya, Syria, Iraq after efforts at regime change? It is a bit hard on the little people, isn't it?

It is a little hard on the little people everywhere also.

Wha ta show of western "influence". Sanctioning Russia and protecting the Ukrainian "rights" to physically eliminate dissidence. How "democratic" to militarily suppress the selfdetermination rights of scores of people in eastern Ukraine. Ironic, isn't it? Self determination is nice as long as it does not develop in a country ruled by a "friendly" government? I hope Russia smuggles arms and "voluntaries" and the rebels fight the oppressors to a stalemate at least, 'til a self determination referendum is hold. THEN we will speak of democracy. All the while it is just oppression.

…says the man from Catalonia… :-)

This image was related to military deployments on the border by Russia, so is out of date, but it shows the scale of the problem. Kharkiv and Odessa are pretty stable now, Zaporozhia kinda watched it all happen around them:

Issues are only really in Donetsk and Lughansk, so very much a minority area of the country. Certainly not the 'half of Ukraine' that certain media channels would have you believe.

Within those two oblasts:

This shows Kharkiv as well, but there is almost nothing happening in Kharkiv now, although many businesses are still not back at work fully. Several of these areas across the top (Slavyansk, Kramatorsk) and the bottom (Mariupol) have already been taken back (or abandoned). However we are really looking at isolated pockets of militant groups who simply don't like the legitimately and democratically elected government. Sadly one of the issues with democracy is that you go with majority vote, not a unanimous vote, so someone will always be displeased with the person/people in charge.

The Donetsk region has a population of approx 4.3 million, a third of which are in the city of Donetsk itself. Lughansk another 2.2 million, which half million in the city of Lughansk. To put that in perspective Ukraine has a population of approx 45 million, so even if the whole of Donetsk AND Lughansk had voted against it (and it is pretty clear that the whole of the region is not against the current government, and in fact only isolated pockets were prevented from voting) it would amount to about 15%. Poroshenko won with a clear 55-60% majority. They (separatists) could have chosen to vote against him, but elected not to vote, and oppressed the local population by preventing them from doing so (because they knew they didn't have enough popular support to actually win).

Self determination has to have boundaries within the defines of a country itself, otherwise every other village could declare itself independent. That simply leads to anarchy. I am told (by Ukrainian locals in the area) that many separatist bodies are left on the streets because nobody is there to claim them; ie they are not locals.

This is not a struggle of Ukrainians for self determination, this is a fight on Ukrainian territory by, in most cases now, individual wannabes who are trying to carve out their little patch of control.

Agree totally with Geoff's interpretation, as that agrees with what my Russian-speaking friends from Lughansk & Kharkiv have told me; they want the separatists out (as most separatists are not locals).

Good thread Geoff!.

Amicalement
Armand

Quite surprising. Putin's Russia has been shown to be gutless in the end.

We don't know what secret diplomacy may have given him.

@ GeoffQRF:

;-)

The democratic governemnt at Kiiv should know a referendum IS the best democratic tool to deal with selfdetermination rights (moreover as the current situation was brought by a government decision and change which was against the will of a significant part of the population). Military action without resort to votation is just oppression. And it only brings more confrontation adn/or misery in the long (or even shorter) term. A quick look to history reveals such…

So we can operate with 43 million people each having the right for individual self determination?

moreover as the current situation was brought by a government decision and change which was against the will of a significant part of the population

Moreover it was brought about by a decision and change that was in favour of the majority of the population and, as discussed above, one of the fundamental principles of democracy is that the majority wins, which does unfortunately leave a disatissfied minority, but when that minority then takes up arms against the lawfully elected state, the state responds with force. That happens everywhere.

As Huscarle has also confirmed, many of the people doing the fighting are not the people of the country, so therefore surely have no legitimate say.

Note that, contrary to assertions by Putin some time ago, the vast majority of separatists still keep their faces hidden:

Sloviansk is clearly not all anti-Government (Poroshenko in Sloviansk yesterday):

In an interview for Russia's Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper, the deputy prime minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, Andrei Purgin, said no truce was possible with the government.

He accused the Ukrainian military of taking 400 people "hostage" and of failing to provide "humanitarian corridors" in the conflict zone.

So it seems that whatever options the Government has put forward (and humanitarian corridors were opened, but in reqal terms most people dont want to leave their homes, and the conflict areas are pretty localised) will be ignored anyway, as ultimately they don't want compromise.

The likes of Purgin and Borodai have nothing to lose now. If they surrender they will be incarcerated for a long time.

Unsurprisingly everything that surrounds the military operation except victorious press-releases is gone from most of the western media networks. No info on shelling the cities, killing local citizens, indiscriminative arrests, etc – Ukraine is off from front pages.
Russia could probably interfere, to show how manly are we, but it will mean new cold war, or, in the worst case, new hot war – and nobody really wants that in the end.

Ukrainian government has set up a scene for a possible long bloody feud, Northern Ireland style. Most of those separatists, who are still fighting, are locals – that's why they haven't withdrawn to Russia during cease fire or during evacuation of Slavyansk -they went to other cities still under their control. There was an interesting report of Western Ukrainian journalist, who spent some time with the rebels to discover that truth is different to what he used to believe.
From pure military tactics point of view government forces are not completely clueless – in the end they have scared 80% people from Slavyansk, and only then started massive scale attack. However, leaving the population without water, medical help and food doesn't really sound especially civilized. Providing that Donetsk and Lugansk are much bigger and have most of the population still there, it will be bloody stupid to bomb the population out of the cities…
However, truth is, that the population is tired from the conflict, and as it is clear that a couple of thousands of rebels can hardly defeat the whole army and this army will not care too much about civilian casualties, I guess common ukrainians who have not lost their relatives in the fight will bet on government forces to end the bloody affair, the rest will fight now, or later on. therefore – more shelling, more enemies.

Another nasty truth is, that it seems that Russia has tested unconventional war conflict scenario, and knows that in really dire situation it is winnable…at the expense of those in the East, who were waiting for Russian troops to come.
The exchange rates of hard currency to rouble are lower, than it was before Ukrainian conflict, and stock exchange played most of the losses back.
A lot of speculative capital has left the country, but in the end it might be a good thing – as these money were invested mostly in speculative financial schemes or real estates reselling.
Russia will have some problems in military sphere as Ukrainain producers stopped delivering even the goods that were prepayed, so we'll see a lot of court action this year.
Therefore Russia finally decided that we should end the dependancy from any Ukrainian producers. While for some of the stuff – like helicopter engine – it will take some years, in the end we're better off on our own.
South Stream is secured, no really economical sanctions are there…and Ukraine was deep in debts before Maidan, and now they need much more to rebuild everything destroyed during military operation…

…it will be bloody stupid to bomb the population out of the cities…

Presumably why "…the government also said it would stop using the air and artillery strikes that drove the rebels from other towns so as to avoid terrorizing civilians

link

From the same link:

"Andrei Purgin, deputy prime minister of the self-proclaimed independent Donetsk People's Republic, said the rebels have an estimated 15,000 fighters and are focusing their efforts on defending Donetsk, a major industrial hub of 1 million.

Knowing that both sides will heavily inflate figures for their own purposes, it is unlikely that they have anything like 15,000, so in a way he has just given away just how many, or few, they are.

"We are creating one DPR fist that is ready to fight and repel the Ukrainian army," Purgin said. He said his forces control all of Donetsk, where the normally busy streets were largely vacant but for groups of automatic rifle-toting rebels on patrol.

Groups of armed men patrolling streets does tend to empty them of resident civilians.

A major asset still under government control is the Donetsk Airport, the scene of a bloody clash in May that claimed the lives of dozens of insurgents. Purgin vowed that the rebels would soon take "all assets of interest, including the airport."

A wishful thought?

News on Ukraine is still there, but you have to dig a little deeper. This report suggests it is the separatists doing the shelling (in response to an attack on an air force academy, allegedly housing a military unit of people's' militia): link …not bad for weapons you can obtain in the shops, or by raiding police stations.

Undoubtedly recent engagements will see greater separation between Russia and Ukraine, or perhaps less dependence on each other, which TBH plays into the hands of those who want greater association with Europe. It seems that every step taken by Russia just pushes Ukraine further way, and more likely to seek support (financial and military) from the very thing they allegedly didn't want in the first place.

The Ukrainian defence industry (Ukroboronprom) says their main customers are China and India. They apparently make some aviation radar components and parts for missile systems for Russia which are now under an embargo, but the latest Janes assessment is that it will not have any significant effect on the Russian military: link

we'll see…now we have a constant flow of counter-messages when both sides accusing each other of shelling the citizens, even if there's spent aviation ammo on the streets ;) However, taking into account the numbers of guns the sides command, it seems very unlikely that rebels are responsible for the destruction of large scale…

Rebels have reported capturing of tanks, BM's and self propelling howitzers, and there were reports of tank fights even, so at the moment both sides might have heavy stuff – even that government forces report destroying "dozens of rebels armor units".
the East of Ukraine is still hot topic here and on Ukraine, but not really that much in the west…You know that ITAR-TASS is Russian press, right? ;)

Ukraine is lost at the moment, but so were Baltic states. Ukraine will be forced to seek compromise for their trades with Russia, otherwise they're in big trouble soon. If Russia will set employment visas for Ukraine, these 1.5 mil will have to struggle with their living or go west. It will be interesting to see, what will Europe be pledging as support for Ukraine…and on what conditions.

There are a lot of reports of large scale bombardments by artillery and MLRS (Grad) systems, but the damage seen appears to be more consistent with single explosions of a small calibre, more like 120mm mortars. We know that both sides have access to these, as evidence in the link above. This would also seen to be consistent with the inaccuracy of fire.

Yes, ITAR-TASS is Russian press, and if you look at some of their other reports you will still see the reflections of paranoia that were present prior to the takeover of Crimea. With a high degree of political commentary demonstrating exactly where their bias leans. This one was unusual in highlighting rebels firing back with artillery, presumably intended to show that they had teeth to fire with. But inadvertently giving away that they also had access to larger calibre weapons, and probably with less training…

Russia could set visas for Ukrainian, but it would be a formality. Russian businesses need the workers as much as the workers need the jobs, and it would be primarily ethnic Russians (Ukrainian nationals) who would be affected. Equally there are quite a lot of Russians working on more prestigious positions within both Russia and Ukraine who would find a visa process cumbersome to their business interests.

…indiscriminative arrests…

Like Nadiya Savchenko, captured by separatists in June near Metalist, but now turned up in a Russian detention centre in Voronezh as of yesterday?

Russian authorities allege she crossed the border voluntarily and illegally, without papers, in the guise of a refugee… but wait, wasn't she bring held by separatists in Donetsk on 22 June? Did she get released or did she escape? And why not try to head back to her unit, or other friendly forces, where she would be supported and able to rejoin the fight (she is an SU-24 and Mi-24 pilot, hardly the type to go round engaging on the ground) ? Did she turn the wrong way and cross the border, in uniform (she is shown still in her uniform in the Russian detention centre) and mysteriously nobody stopped her?

What could she hope to gain by crossing into Russia? A one person attack on the Russian army? Reporting Russian troop movements for an army that has had permission to cross the border revoked? Risk (as she appears to have been) of arrest, and either charged as a spy or a war criminal?

Surreal logic.

well, nobody is saying that rebels are angels, but in Slavyansk we're talking of ALL former police arrested, and ALL men younger than 35 years that were in the city at the time of its capture sent to detention centers. similar situation in Krasnyi Liman and some other captured cities.
As for Savchenko I guess she was smuggled to Russia by rebels.

In Nikolaevka, Ukrainian soldier reported on Facebook
link
that the command instructs them to shoot everything that moves even when rebels were not in the city any longer…only to be arrested by his officers for spreading "false rumors"…

I guess even if I bring you the video with Poroshenko personally shooting civilians with machine gun you'll find a valid excuse for that ;))
You know, in 1993 I thought that shooting our parliament with tanks was a good idea, as for sure there were rebels inside. Yeltsin, who gave this order was supported by the western governments at the time…but basically this was the end of Russian parliamentarism. Russia might have lost Ukraine, but Poroshenko has lost Donbass.

4 July 2014 – Amid fresh deadly clashes in eastern Ukraine, destruction of civilian infrastructure and "utterly reprehensible" incitement to violence targeting women and underage girls, the United Nations human rights chief today urged all sides to engage in dialogue and "turn away from the destructive path" towards which they are leading the crisis-torn region.

from UN page: un.org.ua

UN is also reporting sharp increase or refugees
link

while state dep claims that they're just visiting their babushkas.
YouTube link
Surreal logic?

Note that includes 12,000 (Ukrainians) displaced from Crimea, and the UN acknowledges "In Bryansk the majority are staying with relatives and friends"

Statistics tend to get read to give the result you are trying to prove. How many of those reported to have crossed into Russia are actually migrant workers, tourists or family members who may otherwise have crossed the border anyway? While there does appear to be a sizeable number of displaced people who have left areas where fighting has directly occurred, mysteriously no photos of these camps anywhere, except stock library shots?

I think the problem is that it remains portrayed as the whole region is anti-government, whereas (at the moment) it is just a relatively small number of militant groups hiding amongst the civilian population. Of course that makes them extremely hard to identify, and even harder to extract, and swinging a heavy bat with not enough control will just turn more people against government action, so the next steps could be extremely important.

There's some info on refugees/camps – note, that I'm not using Russian sites…

and if I had a choice between staying with relatives and living in a tent, I will of course pick my relatives'house. This still doesn't clarify, if I'm really visiting my granny or running away from war…

link

link
link

link

and BBC on situation in Slavyansk:

Fears remain after Ukraine's rebels flee Sloviansk

link

link

Ukrainian troops have clashed with pro-Russian separatists who were trying to capture Donetsk airport in the east. A military spokesman said the insurgents had fired mortar rounds at the airport on Thursday but the attack had failed.

Sounds like it fizzled out before it really got going.

Another leader of the self-declared Donetsk people's republic, Alexander Borodai, threatened a mass pull-out of civilians from the city, which has a population of more than one million.

"This will be hundreds of thousands of people. This is an inevitability we have to face, to avoid civilian casualties," he told reporters.

He said evacuation was necessary because the rebels had not received enough shipments of arms from Russia. [interesting, 'enough' weapons, not some weapons… so they did receive some?]

"Russia must be ready to receive several hundred thousand refugees," he said. However, he later indicated the evacuation would involve tens of thousands of civilians.

So unless Russia comes to help, they will enforce a humanitarian disaster by forcing tens to hundreds of thousands to leave Donetsk.

Of course they could just not hide in the cities…

Interesting assessment of the task, and risks, in hand here: link

Especially the end opinion/observation:

The Kremlin will try to keep Mr Strelkov in Ukraine with his followers, armed with Kalashnikovs. Otherwise they would stir up trouble for Russia, armed and angry.

So for now Moscow's goal will be to maintain controllable chaos in Ukraine. That policy will also serve to show the Russian people that any attempt at a Ukraine-style "colour revolution", any attempt to get rid of the authoritarian state, will result in chaos and civil war.

So is Russia's involvement in Ukraine really an attempt to prevent dissatisfaction getting out of hand within Russia?

link

Separatists have apparently fired Grad rocket systems in Lughansk, killing 30 soldiers.

Zoryan Shkyryak, an adviser to Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov… said, [they] had used a Grad system and the destruction was "really heavy".

Elsewhere, the rebels shelled Ukrainian troops at Donetsk airport… The rebels have not yet broken through to the airport.

indiscriminative arrests

…a report by the human rights group Amnesty International has accused separatists of abuses in the three-month conflict. The group said it had found "graphic and compelling evidence of savage beatings and other torture" by pro-Russian groups in eastern Ukraine.

The Amnesty report, Abductions and Torture in Eastern Ukraine, said that protesters and journalists had been targeted, and hundreds of people had been abducted.

Pro-government forces had also committed a smaller number of abuses, Amnesty said.

I am booked to fly out to Ukraine on 5 August, fo a month, so be interesting to get some idea of the mood on the ground once I am there.

BBC news article has been amended to read 19 dead.

Care Geoff, Godspeed on your trip.

RE: Grad attack – it hit 1st Battalion 24th Motorized Brigade – link to Ukraine@war (a "pro-Kiev" site) article & discussion:

ukraineatwar.blogspot.com.au/2014/07/drama-near-zelenopole-entire-ukrainian.html

Lots of detail on the site – latest posting is pics of all the Vostok Battalion vehicles entering their base:

Grad rockets causing catastrophic kills on tanks? I'm not sure something else was used as well, perhaps the Krasnopol PGM?

Mixed reports of large scale actions near Lughansk.

link

Strelkov (the nom-de-guerre of Igor Girkin) said the rebels had beaten off two government armoured columns numbering between 40 and 70 tanks.

What was initially reported as a massed storming of Lughansk now seems to be reported as a series of smaller skirmishes with no real hard facts. Possible that the army simply withdrew as the risk to civilians increased.

More, not-good news.

link

The 9K34 Strela-3 (SA-14) has an altitude range of approx 2300 metres. The AN-26 was allegedly shot down at 6500 metres (just over 21,000 feet)

Speculation here that the AN-26 was not as high as 6500 metres – that is a long way up if they were bringing aid in to Lughansk – and that it could have been shot down by separatist-acquired SA-6: link

The 2K12 "Kub" (SA-6) has an altitude range of approx 7000 metres, so is quite capable. All four crew members are reported to have been captured and are being held in Lughansk.

Ukraine is currently speculating a SAM from Russia, or a AAM from a Russian fighter. However I cant see any telltale trails from either type of missile so difficult to tell for sure.

Meanwhile, the area not under control continues to shrink:

Surely the SA6 would blow the AN-26 apart with it's 60 kg warhead?

…but in Slavyansk we're talking of ALL former police arrested, and ALL men younger than 35 years that were in the city at the time of its capture sent to detention centers

Partially correct, about 7:00 here she confirms that all police were detained (as was anyone carrying firearms) while they established control, but the rest of it seems to be a lot of distant rumours that nobody has actually seen…. link

Note she also talks about secretly feeding policemen in hiding who did not want to join the separatists.

Interesting also that one of them reports here that all tv and media seems to have been blocked while the separatists had control of Slavyansk, but the residents are happy that now they have been 'liberated' things are getting back to normal, pensions being paid, food back in the shops…

Does the SA-6 work on proximity? If so, its a lot of shrapnel.

Proximity and impact fused. One would think an SA6 could hit a medium sized transport with basic ecm suite, in which case I doubt all four crew could have survived. Sounds like a small warhead, crippling flight controls, leading to a forced landing. So my money is on the SA-14/18 systems.