
"The partition of Ukraine..." Topic
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Barin1 | 19 May 2014 11:39 p.m. PST |
Dubious or not, there was direct link to president's statement – in English. eng.kremlin.ru/transcripts/7143 < We think the most important thing now is to launch direct dialogue, genuine, full-fledged dialogue between the Kiev authorities and representatives of southeast Ukraine.> < You asked what we can do now. As I said, what is needed is direct, full-fledged and equal dialogue between the Kiev authorities and the representatives of people in southeast Ukraine. I spoke recently with German Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel, who proposed organising this dialogue in the form of a round table. We support this. I think it is a good idea and we will do everything we can to help make it happen. We must do everything possible to ensure that people in southeast Ukraine understand, feel and believe that after the Ukrainian presidential election on May 24 or 25 their lawful rights will be reliably guaranteed. This is the real issue, not the presidential election, but ensuring that people in the southeast know that they won't be abandoned and deceived. This is the crux of the matter, and it is for this that we need the dialogue we have been talking about today.> So it looks like we have dubious interpretation here, and not by RT ;)
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GeoffQRF | 20 May 2014 4:02 a.m. PST |
what is needed is direct, full-fledged and equal dialogue between the Kiev authorities and the representatives of people in southeast Ukraine
Which may have happened earlier, if Russia had not annexed Crimea and stationed a large army very close to the border, thus encouraging (directly or indirectly, intentionally or unintentionaly) militia separatist action. It made the problem worse, not better, further fuelled by paranoid media stories of hoards of Nazis coming to kill Russians as they slept. The date for the presidential election was made clear from the outset, and there was never any question that eastern provinces would not be represented. Instead of trying to increase stability and negotiation, with open representation towards a fair election (or as fair is these elections really can be), the encouragement (whether intended or consequential) has been towards fighting the interim authorities all the way. Given recent happenings, and especially given Russia's handling of Crimea and the Ukraine situation in general, it is highly likely that a pro-Europe government will be elected over a pro-Russian one. It is the nature of elections that not everybody will get what/who they want, but I do worry that a pro-Europe government within Ukraine will simply see stronger separatist action rather than improved integration. |
Barin1 | 20 May 2014 4:58 a.m. PST |
Well, all three top candidates are millioners, unsurprisingly, they even stand in the order of their fortunes prior to elections. Also, those who control the media – like TV channels – are having significant advantage. Yesterday, Akhmetov also made his move, promising strike on his steelworks and mines, may be he wants to trade his support for Kiev for a nice position – prime minister may be? yesterday Guardian published an article, link that Maidan wasn't about East vs West, but people vs. oligarchs. If it is so – and I do beleive that lots of protesters really wanted to see corrupt oligarchs go – next elections are hardly going to change anything at all. When we discussed ongoing crisis in Crimea, I wrote about some points of no return, that speed up the referendum date and changed the text of the bulletin. It happened when rada voted for the return of old constitution with no Russian as official language and opened criminal cases against all Crimean officials who started talking about autonomy. Then they have moved the date, and instead of autonomy decided to join Russia at once. It is very similar in the East – it started with the demand for federalization, but when Kiev stated its position that it is not going to happen and opened criminal cases against officials, who supported the line, they had little choice than trying to get self-determination and joining Russia – even that there's a very small possibility that it might happen. Therefore , blaming Russia alone for Ukrainian crisis is polular, but we're not alone in the pot. |
GeoffQRF | 20 May 2014 6:07 a.m. PST |
rada voted for the return of old constitution with no Russian as official language They reverted the constitutional change that gave the president overriding powers. It happened that those same changes had installed Russian as a second official language, so the reversion simply removed something that had been added in, but Russian had not been present since independence. All these scare stories about Russian being banned were a prelude to creating a different situation. I agree, Russia is not alone, but rather than step back and let it develop internally it has stepped directly in and placed pressure which has forced the interim government to take positive action where it may have just permitted a status quo until after the presidential elections. |
GeoffQRF | 20 May 2014 7:21 a.m. PST |
Akhmetov also made his move, promising strike on his steelworks and mines, may be he wants to trade his support for Kiev for a nice position – prime minister may be? Not sure Akhmetov has ever really shown any outward intention to run for government (unlike Poroshenko) but he is a businessman and business is being affected. link Note that Poroshenko is currently showing at 47% popularity, a lead of 37% over his nearest rival. He has seen a relatively sudden increase after a couple of politicians withdrew their candidacy and stood behind Poroshenko. Klitshko is running for Mayor of Kyiv. Apparently 2 millon people in Donbass (out of a population of 36 million eligible voters) may be unable to vote due to the unrest. (Perhaps they should have been thinking more about getting behind someone who would stand up for them than just fighting running battles with no real result?) Hopefully the winning vote will be sufficiently clear that 2 million votes would make no difference to the result either way. His allegiances have until recently been in doubt, because of past links with Mr Yanukovych and business links with Russia. But in an emergency address broadcast by his own Ukrayina TV channel, he issued a stinging criticism of the separatist rebellion. Steel magnate Rinat Akhmetov said "people are tired of living in fear and terror" and accused separatists of leading Ukraine towards "genocide". Not sure he has called for strikes, so much as protests. He said Ukrainians – including his own employees – should stage a "peaceful warning protest" at their workplaces from noon on Tuesday, and that action should continue daily "until peace is established". It was originally planned as a quiet, peaceful protest ( link ), but threats of violence by pro-Russian groups has seen it develop into this interesting alternative
link It was a noisy new strategy by those fighting for a united Ukraine. Cars swept through Donetsk, horns blaring, some waving the yellow and blue Ukrainian flag. It had been planned as a march through the city of Mariupol on Monday but was cancelled at the last minute because of threats from the pro-Russia armed groups. And so Rinat Akhmetov, whose company Metinvest is based in Donetsk, has now called for a car protest every day at noon. There are reports that some vehicles were attacked by the separatists as they drove past. But that didn't silence them. This is the other side of eastern Ukraine to the one we've seen in the past few weeks: those angry at the separatism, at the attempted secession and at the masked gunmen roaming the streets. They want to vote in Sunday's presidential election and are determined to have their voices – and their car horns – heard. The objection is not against the government in Kyiv so much as the people in the streets with guns preventing them getting on with living, and in Akhmetov's case the business of making money. |
Barin1 | 20 May 2014 8:01 a.m. PST |
He is pro-Kiev at the moment, that's why I've wrote: "trade his support for Kiev for a nice position" Knowing how Akhmetov is making his business, I'm absolutely sure that he has some agenda. He was forced to act also by an attempt from DNR folks to install some "taxation" on him. And there was a "preemptive" strike today, for only an hour at the moment. I guess it happened after DNR wanted to "nationalize" his plants and mines
I understand quite well, that he will lose a lot in DNR – with sanctions, export taxes and and lots of other nasty stuff that he may suffer, staying there. probably that should have been explained from the very beginning – lots of people can lose their jobs in separatist anclave. It surely works better than military operation. |
Rod I Robertson | 20 May 2014 9:06 a.m. PST |
Akhmetov may have his own reasons for these demonstrations of the majority vs. the separatist minorities but the idea is a good one. If the vast majority of Southeastern Ukrainians come out into the streets and by their superior numbers dwarf the separatists then there is hope that more sensible and moderate voices will be heard. If the separatists or other extremist groups attack and injure the majority then they will prove themselves to be violent fanatics and seriously undermine their own credibility. Until the average Ukrainian citizens demand an end to extremism and oligarchy in whatever form it manifests itself, and force by numbers and political pressure a true democratisation of Ukraine where moderate and peaceful voices can be heard, they will suffer this abuse at the hands of these marginal groups. |
GeoffQRF | 20 May 2014 9:11 a.m. PST |
He's not really pro either
he us pro whatever makes the most commercially stable and profitable environment, which is something that would almost certainly suffer (to him personally, and the estimated 300k employees) if Donetsk was annexed |
GeoffQRF | 25 May 2014 1:32 p.m. PST |
Elections have taken place today, and exit polls are suggestion Poroshenko is outright winner with over 50% of the vote – this would mean no need for a second vote, and he would be able to move towards parliamentary elections. Timoshenko was runner up, with a distant 12%. Turnout is believed to have been about 45% (a more realistic figure that that touted in the Donetsk and Crimean referendums). Voting did take place in some areas of Donetsk and Lughansk, but most were closed after threats, or in some cases acts, of violence. Unlike the Donetsk referendum, where a voting station was opened in Moscow for people living there to also vote if Donetsk should become independent, Crimean were generally unable to vote (a station was opened on the mainland, but again threats from pro-separatists meant that few tried to get there). Poroshenko has said that he would never recognise Russia's "occupation of Crimea", annexed by Moscow in March. Asked about relations with Russia, he said the "sovereignty and territorial integrity" of Ukraine mattered most to him. And Klitchko? He has become Mayor of Kiev. |
GeoffQRF | 26 May 2014 2:07 a.m. PST |
Turnout is believed to have been about 45% Correction: 60% |
Barin1 | 26 May 2014 3:43 a.m. PST |
60% is a lot for Ukraine
not saying it is not possible, OSCE will make their report I suppose – can be just the weather, so the people went for polling booth after 16-00 ( we had 14% at 11, 38% at 16, and 60 at 21.) Actually there were several stations opened in Moscow, but turnout was extremely low (1000 out of 27000 they thought will come). I guess most of the people working in Moscow are from the East, so decided to ignore the vote. According to the report, about 9000 ppl from Crimea voted in Kherson region of Ukraine. Frankly, I see absolutely no way that Crimea is rejoining Ukraine in nearest furture, so not sure why the people would be interested in voting for Ukrainian president. I'm really curious how Poroshenko will be keeping his promises. I agree that he might be the best choice for Ukraine at the moment, but he made a lot of contradicting statements – like speeding up military operation in the East and dialogue with locals – he plans to make Donetsk his first visit point after inaguration. He will also have tough time balancing between IMF conditions of sanation and social benefits he promised to keep. If he is getting entangled in this web of promises and reality, we might see another Maidan soon enough. Interesting phrase by Timoshenko – she acknowledged her defeat, but said that Ukraine put a large credit of trust for Poroshenko, adnd wished that he will not screw it
On 2d front in Donetsk, the situation between Akhmetov and DNR still unclear. On one side, Akhmetov basically announced war against separatists, on another side DNR prevented capture of his residence, with DNR commander naming him "Donbass patriot" in front of the angry crowd ;) |
Ascent | 26 May 2014 4:27 a.m. PST |
I wouldn't say 60% was unreasonable, especially with all that has been going on. If there had been no unrest I expect turnout would have been lower. |
GeoffQRF | 26 May 2014 4:46 a.m. PST |
60% is a lot for Ukraine It's a lot for most elections, which makes the 90%+ alleged turnout for Donetsk and Crimea even more suspect. According to the report, about 9000 ppl from Crimea voted in Kherson region of Ukraine. Frankly, I see absolutely no way that Crimea is rejoining Ukraine in nearest furture, so not sure why the people would be interested in voting for Ukrainian president. Despite the alleged voting results, there are a lot of Ukrainians living in Crimea who refused to vote, and probably would have preferred to remain in Ukraine, or have increased autonomy, rather than be annexed by Russia, but they were not given that choice – according to the 2011 census, 492,227, so 9,000 represents what? Just under 2%? Still would be interesting to see hard core numbers rather than simple percentages. I'm really curious how Poroshenko will be keeping his promises. Stating that Crimea is Ukraine was a foregone conclusion, and the seemingly hard line response to Russian relations does at least put his foot down a little, appeasing the voters and buying time to see where the tide is drifting, but I agree that it is difficult to see how he will be able to swing that decision without Russia simply agreeing to return it. If the fear was purely over protecting Russians in Crimea, then that fear should be seen to abate as stability and rules of law returns, in which case it may be a negotiable point, but from the outset I suspected it was more to do with a military presence in the Black Sea than Russians in Crimea ;-) I agree that he might be the best choice for Ukraine at the moment Of those running, he seems to be the least controversial. He now has to prove he is sufficiently heavyweight to survive in a very dirty business.
but he made a lot of contradicting statements – like speeding up military operation in the East and dialogue with locals – he plans to make Donetsk his first visit point after inaguration. link "For those people who don't take (up) weapons, we are always ready for negotiations to guarantee them security, to guarantee their rights, including speaking the language they want," he said in English. Seems fair enough as a statement. And presumably visiting violence on those who oppose in a violent manner is no less than any other government would do to armed groups holding government buildings. He will also have tough time balancing between IMF conditions of sanation and social benefits he promised to keep. The economy is going to take a long time to sort. There is no 'quick fix' solution. If he is getting entangled in this web of promises and reality, we might see another Maidan soon enough. Interesting phrase by Timoshenko – she acknowledged her defeat, but said that Ukraine put a large credit of trust for Poroshenko, and wished that he will not screw it
She knew she was defeated long before the election and, like many of them, is trying to make the best of her situation. The money is running thin, so she needs to find some favours to work with :-) On 2d front in Donetsk, the situation between Akhmetov and DNR still unclear. On one side, Akhmetov basically announced war against separatists, on another side DNR prevented capture of his residence, with DNR commander naming him "Donbass patriot" in front of the angry crowd ;) I am seeing that as a PR stunt – we can't win, so let's say we are working together for peace. |
Barin1 | 26 May 2014 5:26 a.m. PST |
There's a fight in Donetsk airport, with military using attack helicopters and fighters. It seems that locals tried to push the military from the airport, and they've called for air support. The witnesses report one terminal burning
if it continues like that, Poroshenko will have problems with his first visit. May very well be an attempt to provoke him from militants'side
or military is checking how far he will go in the operation. Ukrainian paratropers just arrived for the fight
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GeoffQRF | 26 May 2014 5:51 a.m. PST |
Saw that this morning. Still not convinced how local the locals are – a bunch of them lost credibility in Kharkiv a while back after storming the local cinema, having mistaken it for a government building. :-D The headlines arew now reading "militiamen halting flights", whereas it was reported earlier that they turned up and a firefight distorted, so airport operations simply closed down all flights as a precautionary measure. As you say, possibly an attempt to provoke a reaction and see how far they are willing to hold ground, or possibly an attempt to prevent the Ukrainian President being able to authorise a larger scale military insertion. |
Barin1 | 26 May 2014 6:10 a.m. PST |
well, in Kharkiv they were poor performers – after all, they were not able to do anything and were kicked out soon, while in Donetsk they know the land pretty well – and the leaders are locals – and hold the ground against military ;) NOTE: you may be from another city, but to take a cinema for city council is definitely not a choice I'm making ;) |
GeoffQRF | 26 May 2014 6:37 a.m. PST |
Not sure how much they were poor performers, and how much just better rumbled. :-) Locals are still alleging they caught some protestors with lists of when and where to protest. I haven't seen one, but it certainly went quieter after that moment. The cinema is a pretty imposing government-looking building, but it did show that these 'locals' didn't have a clue of their way around. |
RTJEBADIA | 26 May 2014 3:03 p.m. PST |
Whoa, hold up, lists showing when and where to protest just show organization. Such stuff is standard for protests. |
GeoffQRF | 26 May 2014 4:27 p.m. PST |
Is it also standard for the protestors to arrive on coaches from elsewhere? |
GeoffQRF | 26 May 2014 10:47 p.m. PST |
What is perhaps more concerning is that the Ukrainian Army, given legitimacy in their actions by being instructed by the democratically elected President of Ukraine (which, of course, the militants don't recognise because they say they declared themselves independent), and given the might of their military infrastructure were still unable to completely retake the airport in the face of civilian |
Barin1 | 26 May 2014 11:24 p.m. PST |
I'm afraid that Pororshenko was told to wrap the things fast, so the world community can quickly and conveniently forget about separatists. Therefore usage of attack helicopters and heavy mortars and artillery in several locations in the east. As I expected, even that the army is hardly specifically targets civivlian buildings, they still hit them and people die. This night in Mariupol the army successfully (well, at least according to their info) stormed DNR Mariupol imrovised HQ. This means that the memorandum, signed about a week ago is void, and we can expect more fighting. Local Donetsk media is discussing possible agreement between Akhmetov and Poroshenko – that oligarch, starting with "A" will receive carte-blanche for ruling over Donetsk after the trouble ends in exchange of his refusal to fund separatists (most of the people are sure, that at least some of the gangs were his creation, but the things spin out of control very fast). It seems that in Donetsk region there's hardly a centralized control, apart of Slavyansk, and there's no single political agenda. It starts to resemble Syria
. |
GeoffQRF | 27 May 2014 3:56 a.m. PST |
The lack of centralised control (within the separatists) has been their downfall. They are tactically led at the point of contact but there is no consensus of leadership strategically – it's small bunches in individual power hungry bandits. Civilian proximity is what has prevented a more effective military operation to nip this in the bud much earlier. And the longer it goes on, the more like a bunch of militant thugs they start to look, being turfed out by local babushkas who don't want "any monkey with a gun" on their streets. The media-fuelled nazi fascist invasion never happened, removing the wind from the sails of popular support, which is now decaying rapidly as people want to get back to earning a living, and a peaceful daily life. Antagonism will continue for some time, but actual effective control is really very limited to a few town centres (where they can't be easily extracted without danger to civilians) and pockets close to the Russian border. |
Bangorstu | 27 May 2014 7:58 a.m. PST |
It would appear that the separatists have been badly beaten in Dontesk. Now that the Ukrainian army has a democratically elected government giving it orders,I doubt this situation will last too much longer unless Russia intervenes. Given previous belligerence, seems Putin ha drawn in his horns a bit
. |
GeoffQRF | 27 May 2014 9:53 a.m. PST |
Thinking back on it, Ukraine has been working on links with the EU for the last decade, flirting between the EU and the CIS. Ukraine was one of the founders of the CIS, but remains on the edge. Normal politics preside, leaning left or right, depending on which way the money flows, sorry, wind blows. December-January saw a significant shift, with the Ukrainian people taking a much stronger attitude towards HOW the country was being run, conscious in part that the open corruption was affecting daily living and preventing development (despite issues of corruption in other EU countries). I think that Putin realised that, one way or another, Ukraine was about to make a significant step towards the EU and Russia would lose a significant level of influence that it was able to apply. Seizure of Crimea then seems to make sense, and all the rest has just been a bit of muscle flexing without really any intention of putting on the gloves. This recent shift in policy and de escalation would seem to lean towards, if not actually support, that theory. Russia never had any intention of annexing Donetsk, which would have been an absolute nightmare, both strategically and economically. |
Bangorstu | 29 May 2014 12:01 a.m. PST |
Unconfirmed reports of Chechen fighters being ordered to Eastern Ukraine. One wonders how local these fighters are,,, |
GeoffQRF | 29 May 2014 5:41 a.m. PST |
Kind of more suspected accusations at the moment, but they have requested Russia to close the border and prevent them coming in. |
GeoffQRF | 29 May 2014 11:32 p.m. PST |
Alexander Borodai, the separatist leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, said 33 Russian nationals had been among those killed in the airport clashes.Mr Borodai, himself a Russian citizen, added that their bodies had been identified and would be taken to Russia. So
Why are Russian nationals fighting in military actions at Donetsk airport?? |
Barin1 | 30 May 2014 3:24 a.m. PST |
There's a long history of Post-Soviet conflicts with volunteers/mercenaries picking sides. – Russians and Ukrainians in Transnistria – Ukrainians and Baltic states citizens in Checnya on rebels'side – Russians and Ukrainians in Karabach on Armenian side - Russians and Ukrainians as well as gangs from neighbouring central asian republics in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kirgizia - Ukrainians, Russian islamists on Taliban side in AFghanistan and Iraq - Slavic units (from Ukraine, Byelorussia, Russia) in Yugoslavia conflict – Slavic units (majority been mercenaries) on government side in Syria, while islamists from FSU republics on rebels'side - Chechenyans in 2008 Russia/Gerogia conflict. They were from Yamadaev's forces, opposing Kadyrov in Chechnya, so they have never returned home. Some reports of BBC points at them acting in DNR. What is interesting, is that in theory the border between Ukraine and Russia is closed and reinforced. There were several shootouts when officials from self-proclaimed territories were trying to get in and out of Donetsk region to Russia. Most of journalists from Russia, trying to get there legally are turned away, while the fighters are getting in somehow. Russia wasn't happy with Ukraine sending weapons and specialists to Georgia during the conflict of 2008, so I guess not preventing volunteers getting into conflict is possible
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MarescialloDiCampo | 30 May 2014 6:07 a.m. PST |
Ukrainian helo shot down: The Mi-8 helicopter gunship was shot out of the sky with a sophisticated surface-to-air missile. Among the dead was a Ukrainian general (12 soldiers killed). link link |
Barin1 | 30 May 2014 6:53 a.m. PST |
To shoot Mi-8 you don't need anything really sophisticated. Any old generation heat-seeking unit is fine. There's lots of discussions of the accident, there's one thing I can't figure yet – all helicopters so far were shot in Slavyansk. In Donetsk, when army was retaking local airport, rebels were shot to pieces from above, and nobody report any AA missiles used, or aircraft lost. One explanation I've found, is that AA missile (1 unit, 3 shots) is used as part of BMD load, and in Slavyansk rebels captured several of them, while in Donetsk they were only able to get a hold of RPG/assault rifles and machine guns. If Russia was indeed arming the rebels, they will have more AA support for sure – see Syria. This is especially strange, as most of Donbass casualties are suppposed Russian citizens. It is not strange, if they're mercenaries, though
. |
GeoffQRF | 30 May 2014 7:54 a.m. PST |
I agree, I think much of what we are seeing is now mercenaries coming across the Russian border. Journalists, of course, would use the border crossings (and be refused entry) whereas these bands are crossing at any convenient and unpatrolled zone. Of course as mercenary fighters within Ukraine they hold ever less legality, and official military opposition is almost a certainty. Of course, mercenary normally means a paid fighter.. so the question of who is paying lurks
It is quite feasible that the BMDs contained an SA7 (or later generation) or two that could have been used. |
Bangorstu | 30 May 2014 8:20 a.m. PST |
The Ukrainians report that the team that shot down the helicopter was killed. It would seem – from the reports I'm seeing at least, that the tide is beginning to turn in Kievs' favour. If the separatists lost 100 in a single day in Donetsk – how many are there actually willing to fight as opposed to look cool on a street corner? |
Barin1 | 30 May 2014 9:27 a.m. PST |
Funny thing, yesterday they reported them killed, and today promised to take revenge for the downed helo ;) link I'd not say that the tide is turning – yet. Apart of the loss of Mi-8 with general, Ukrainian ministry of defense reported another helo down near Slavyansk
also yesterday rebels occupied a location of military unit in Luhansk and send home 80 draftees. As the fight intensifies, and collateral damage and civilian losses are increasing, the hatred and willingness of people to fight growing. From the same Guardian article: " Tatiana Kozodavenko, a nursery school teacher who previously taught Zveryev's stepdaughter, said anger was growing among the population. "First there was bewilderment and disbelief, but it's now turning into anger," she said. Outside the Donetsk administration building, Rostislav, a telecommunications employee whose company closed last month, said his friend "took up a machine gun" with the rebels after a shell hit his home during the fighting in Donetsk on Monday. "If the Ukrainian military's aggression continues, many people will join the rebellion," Rostislav said. "If my friends fighting with the rebels are hurt, or if my home is damaged, I won't run away, I'll take up weapons and join." |
GeoffQRF | 30 May 2014 10:23 a.m. PST |
Most of the evidence I have seen has been local population venting anger against the rebels. Popularity has been waning as people are fed up waiting for businesses to reopen, but I agree that increased government military action could consolidate support in a small minority of cases. |
GeoffQRF | 30 May 2014 10:23 a.m. PST |
Most of the evidence I have seen has been local population venting anger against the rebels. Popularity has been waning as people are fed up waiting for businesses to reopen, but I agree that increased government military action could consolidate support in a small minority of cases. |
Rod I Robertson | 30 May 2014 1:05 p.m. PST |
Caution and prudence are called for still. This nasty business in Ukraine could still flair up into something bigger, so all sides and all interested parties should show patience and moderation. It is likely that the helicopter incident will be only one of many. The Ukraine (Kiev) government now has a national (State-wide) mandate to govern the whole of Ukraine and should move to reestablish peace, order and good governance in all of Ukraine. Negotiation and the use of force when necessary should be used in tandem to bring things under control. Once order and peace are established, it is time to deal immediately with Russian-Ukrainian alienation and aspirations for greater control of their lives. The legitimate concerns of eastern Ukrainians must be heard and redressed ASAP. Then the next priority is to make Ukraine a prosperous and successful state for ALL Ukrainians. This will anger Mr. Putin but as long as he plays nice there is little he can do without risking a much wider conflict. Rod Robertson |
ITALWARS | 30 May 2014 2:34 p.m. PST |
a risky business ..to be told by some few to escape from the supposed autoritharism or better paternalism from East to have the troath grabbed by Van Rompuy, Draghi e Barroso?
hope they take all their time to think and that they don't act immediatly in one no return way
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GeoffQRF | 30 May 2014 3:44 p.m. PST |
I'm not even sure what that means |
Milites | 30 May 2014 4:28 p.m. PST |
All Russia has to do if the 'rebels' don't destabilise and fragment the regime is wage a proxy guerrilla war with mercenaries supported by a mysterious backer and a strangely porous border. This will allow safe havens, and the ability to strike key military targets with ever sophisticated weapon systems using precise intel. Barin, the last shoot down might have specifically targeted Major General Serhiy Kulchytsky, given his specific responsibilities. |
Ascent | 01 Jun 2014 3:57 a.m. PST |
link Interesting bit about the Tartars in Crimea and about some of the 'freedom' they now have. |
MarescialloDiCampo | 02 Jun 2014 9:08 a.m. PST |
And now a Border guards center is being attacked "A spokesman for Ukraine's border agency, Oleh Slobodyan, said the militants had attacked the border centre with heavy weapons early in the morning. As many as 500 pro-Russian gunmen are believed to be involved in the assault. BBC news link
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GeoffQRF | 02 Jun 2014 9:23 a.m. PST |
This is in Lughansk. Right on the Russian-Ukrainian border. The pro Russian gunmen are reported to be in uniform. Last reports said 5 separatists killed, 8 Ukrainians wounded |
Chortle  | 03 Jun 2014 4:17 a.m. PST |
Ukranian jet attack leaves civilians dead. I found this clip from Russia Today. Others which I'd seen were too gruesome to show. There may have been an attack against this jet which preceded the deadly strike. YouTube link |
GeoffQRF | 03 Jun 2014 4:57 a.m. PST |
From that report
Many casualties are being reported
At least five people have been killed in the attack. However, the self-defense forces at the moment report one fatality and 10 people sustaining injuries. Seems unclear how many many may actually be. Ukraine's air force struck Lugansk downtown at 16.00 pm. Military aircraft made a targeted strike, deploying cluster bombs. The administration building is partially destroyed, the government of the self-proclaimed Lugansk People's Republic said. Assuming they are not just randomly bombing buildings with cluster bombs, one has to presume there was a reason for a targeted strike on this particular building. They are talking about targetting the city centre, but the explosions shown (1:00 to 1:10) appear to be on an airfield or otherwise somewhere out of the city, and the size of secondary explosions suggests gas tanks or munitions(?) Certainly doesn't look like the same building then shown hit with the ambulances nearby (which shows no signs of fire). Lots of stock footage in that report – people going on a bus trip, nothing to do with the attack. Can't work out who the British diplomat is. Very biased propoganda TV report. |
Chortle  | 03 Jun 2014 6:26 a.m. PST |
I felt compelled to post that one as it was the least bloody I saw in a search before I had to go out. If you see the others you understand what I mean. The others I spotted are of dead, and expiring, people and body parts. Why can't we just get along? |
Barin1 | 03 Jun 2014 6:45 a.m. PST |
I've been trying to figure the situation with this particulate Lugansk strike from various sources to get a real picture. Not sure that it is 100% true, but it seems that: - Ukrainian army is trying to attack administrative buildings of self-proclaimed republics for some time, if the buildings are deep in the city (like in Lugansk) they can't use artillery and attempts to get APC with personnel within striking range typically failed. That's why I'm not surprised that Su-24 could have been used this time. Locals reported one missile and "cluster bombs". Military experts confirm that the explosion type and size can very well be Air-to-surface non-guided missile. As for cluster bombs the experts are not so sure, as it can be remnants of 30 mm aviation cannon shells – there's a crater near administrative building. Even that there were plenty of militants in the building, there were also civilians – like minister of health of so-called Lugansk republic, who died on the stairs of the building. It is not clear, who has given the order. AT first, Ukrainian army started to claim, that all this destruction was caused by failed SAM, launched from another building and hitting conditioner on another. While this explanation is laughable (there're pictures showing no conditioner near this particular window and the size and explosion type is much more likely to be caused by HE shell), I guess the evidence of occasional destruction of buildings (child internate, private houses,etc) starts growing and the army will prefer denial to real investigation – similar to how it was in Checnya, where all the buildings were called "valid military targets"
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GeoffQRF | 03 Jun 2014 7:17 a.m. PST |
Ukrainian army is trying to attack administrative buildings of self-proclaimed republics for some time, if the buildings are deep in the city (like in Lugansk) they can't use artillery and attempts to get APC with personnel within striking range typically failed
Even that there were plenty of militants in the building, there were also civilians Absolutely, Lughnask is still finctioning and any direct attack on administrative buildings is bound to cause civilian casualties. Still curious why they sought to strike that building, particularly with something with relatively low impact, unless there was a direct perceived threat (SAM missile lock perhaps?) Locals reported one missile and "cluster bombs". That seems to vary, as I have seen reports of two missiles as well. As for cluster bombs the experts are not so sure, as it can be remnants of 30 mm aviation cannon shells That's is quite possible. |
Mako11 | 03 Jun 2014 4:55 p.m. PST |
Sad to see that my prediction was correct, on Eastern Ukraine. Not much info on this side of the pond, other than the brief mention of an attack on Ukrainian border guards. If the 500 man assault unit is true, that does seem to be rather substantial. Has Ukraine been successful in re-securing its airport, or is that still being contested by the pro-Russian forces? |
Barin1 | 03 Jun 2014 10:58 p.m. PST |
Donbass airport is under government control, but there are sporadic fights nearby. The attack on borderguards is 3 days long siege at the moment, it is not actually a post on the border, but their base in the city. Self-proclaimed republics in the East are trying either to force the local military units to withdraw or disarm. While some of the soldiers agreed to vacate their bases and were sent home, others are loyal to Kiev government. Locals reporting a significant build-up of the forces yesterday and tonight near Slavyansk – including BM and tanks. It seems there was a significant fight with helicopter and several APC destroyed. Government forces reported one small city captured (Krasnyi Liman), locals are claiming that during the clean-up the wounded in the hospital were killed. This is not confirmed yet by third party. OSCE acknowledged that administrative building in Luganks was attacked from the plane, but Kiev still denies that. Today and tomorrow in Normandia on leaders' meeting we may see some political development, but nobody here can predict whether it will be positive or negative. |
GeoffQRF | 03 Jun 2014 11:53 p.m. PST |
There is a tendency for the media to be portraying Ukraine as struggling in equal halves, whereas in reality the opposition is now really just isolated patches in two far eastern oblasts, mainly close to the Russian border in Lughansk, and along a 30km corridor centered around the main road from Rostov to Kharkiv in Donetsk. For most of the rest of Ukraine life is getting back to normal. If the 500 man assault unit is true, that does seem to be rather substantial. This does tend to play very much into the hands on the armed forces though, as a substantial attack (a) brings a sizeable enemy together and (b) extracts them from the civilian population, enabling the armed forces to bring to bear heavier weapons systems and set piece attacks. Of course getting a sizeable land army across there is problematic, hence an increase in air support. Recent revelations that many of those killed were Russian and have been repatriated back to Russia has consolidated some opinion within Ukraine that these are people fighting in Ukraine, rather than fighting for Ukraine. |
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