"The partition of Ukraine..." Topic

That would be ideal, but in the current atmosphere of mistrust is unlikely.

Unfortunately while the media continues to fuel these sort of "they are coming to get you" stories, the harder it is to find common ground

When you hear the shooting each day it gets on your nerves, and you don't even need to watch TV. There's no airing of Russian state TV in the east at the moment, as TV towers are either controlled by Kiev forces or destroyed. On cable you can get either both Kiev and Moscow channels, or, depending on who's side the TV provider backs, only Russian or only Ukrainian TV.

While I'm not underestimating the power of TV, the real situation – like shooting each day in Slavyansk – forming the mind of people much stronger.

For instance, I'm not watching TV. May be a film sometimes. Internet and FM radios are my sources of information, and there's a lot of people like me.

So far the rebels were not on offensive, when their block-posts are attacked, they burn the tires, waste some ammo and retreat deep into the cities,where armor and personnel, not trained in city warfare can do little – and then they start to shoot everything that moves. Therefore, the APC and soliders retreat, the rebels bring new tyres, and it starts again.

The attack on armored convoy took place bcs. people beleived that they were moving "Trumpeter" missiles on top of the hill. I can not confirm whether it was a true fact, but in this case rebels have shown what can happen if they're not left alone.

Geoff, if you re-read what have happened on last days of Yanukovich you can find that all, who took part in Maidan – including those torching police – received amnesty. All. Not Berkut. However for some reason new authorities are not considering similar action now.

and, coming back to negotiations in Kiev, the rebels were not invited – just as I thought :)

link

There's no airing of Russian state TV in the east at the moment, as TV towers are either controlled by Kiev forces or destroyed

Kharkiv is certainly still receiving Russian TV. Not all masts are down in Donetsk. I don't think it stops at the borders.

The attack on armored convoy took place bcs. people beleived that they were moving "Trumpeter" missiles on top of the hill.

I think 'believed' is significant there. Is there any evidence of Trumpeter missiles being deployed anywhere? (Which ones are trumpeters?)

"…on Tuesday separatist fighters were lying in wait in trees and tall grass that shroud a steep incline by which the convoy dropped down to the causeway. Their rocket-propelled grenade and small arms fire took out the first and last vehicles of what was believed to be a four-vehicle supply convoy."

Difficult to see it as anything other than an attack on a convoy. No missiles found, and from the reports of deaths/injuries/evacuations it seems that there were little than the crews on board.

I can not confirm whether it was a true fact, but in this case rebels have shown what can happen if they're not left alone.

It looks more like a case of underestimation of the enemy and overestimation of own invulnerability. It wasn't a major attack, just a good strike with two RPGs, one front, one back.

…all, who took part in Maidan – including those torching police – received amnesty

"The Ukrainian parliament passed legislation that seems to grant limited amnesty to Euromaidan protesters who vacate occupied local government buildings… the legislation's author told reporters that amnesty will not be granted to all arrested protesters"

Not quite all, it seems. It would seem that they need to [at least agree to] vacate the government buildings for a similar concession…

Well, if Kharkiv is receiving Russian TV , then why we don't have pro-Russian zombies on the streets? ;)

My summer house is 63 km from Moscow. If local retranslation tower is under maintenance, I see nothing on a screen. Therefore, these towers are important.

Trumpeter – BM-21 multiple tube launchers.
link
Such as deployed near TV Tower in Slavyansk.

February, 21 2014

"Parliament also approved an amnesty for protesters accused of involvement in violence and voted for the dismissal of Interior Minister Vitaliy Zakharchenko"

On Friday authorities freed the last of 243 prisoners who were arrested during the unrest.

…and some of the buildings are still occupied.

link

…why we don't have pro-Russian zombies on the streets

Not sure…

"The mayor of Kharkiv denounced separatist acts before he was shot. We are told (by locals living there) that Kharkiv rounded up a couple of bunches of trouble makers (none of whom were from Kharkiv) and took schedules off them [admittedly nobody has produced one of these schedules as evidence]. However we are told that after that the police were on the scheduled location before any action, which then didn't take place. Note that Kharkiv immediately dropped in the level of separatist activity, and it arose in Odessa and Mariupol instead"

Probably just coincidence. ;-)

New Ukrainian government set BM-21 Grad against the Slavyansk civilians in Ukraine.

"We have reliable information that jet launcher artillery system BM – 21 Grad series being deployed to the region between Slavyansk and ( near the city ) Kramatorsk " , a local militia to The Ria Novosti said…

RT! 6:20 MSK Ukrainian army started new storm on #Slavyansk, using tanka and heavy artillery…

I've seen the rumours, but has anyone actually seen one?

The RT source references this video: YouTube link – possibly one BM-21 in the background, but the rest is just an armoured column (standard format with integral SP artillery) and no proof of where or when it was taken. Given that RT previously showed footage of Kyiv relabelled as Simferapol (showing how much violence there was in Crimea, prior to the takeover) it makes RT difficult to accept as a reliable source.

Parliament also approved an amnesty for protesters accused of involvement in violence

That goes on to say…

"But charges will not be dropped unless protesters vacate government buildings and clear a barricade in Kiev, the authorities warned. Many of the freed detainees will remain under house arrest.

After the releases, the opposition said it would comply with some of the government's demands. The detainees were released under an amnesty passed last month to defuse an increasingly violent stand-off.

So it was actually a conditional release :-)

…some of the buildings are still occupied

Problem is that the east considers the interim government as occupying them, and clearly dismissing all government is both impractical and highly unlikely.

Geoff, they have released all protesters, as clearly written in BBC article.
"On Friday authorities freed the last of 243 prisoners"

I guess the world "last" , in English means, you know…last? At the time of their release only some of the buildings were vacated, and barricade was still standing months later. No disarming, too. Therefore, the government fulfilled their side of agreement, while protesters accepted only part of it.

And…Maidan Committee is not a government, and they're still occupying the building and the square.

As for Kharkiv, sorry, you contradict yourself. If propaganda is that strong, it will be turning common people into zombies, and you're quoting the fact, that these zombies came from some other place – probably, where TV is not working ;)
On the other side, there's no army on Kharkiv borders and people are not threatened…

How strong are you counting skills? I've counted 5 BM's ;)

YouTube link

Barin1:
Actually, I counted eight BM's although they were covered with tarpaulins and therefore could conceivably be misidentified. However the angle of the launchers on the back is right for BM-21 multiple rocket launchers.
The BM's could be used to lay down smoke so their presence in and of themselves does not prove the Ukrainian Armed Forces are or intend to bombard civilians.
Rod Robertson.

Well we had BM in our unit during my army service ;)

and you can use guns for fireworks…however, smoke screens is exactly what locals are using against government, and the troops have problems operating in these conditions.
Therefore I think they're here for something else – like shooting road blocks. The only problem is where these rockets might end if shooting starts…

There is an awful lot of supposition there, with no fact, which is forming a substantial element of the perceived but unjustified fear that is driving this movement.

Now who has a record of using rocket launchers to flatten areas?

If BM were part of your unit, their presence in actor used unit would seem perfectly normal, and not necessarily a sign of intended escalation?

Geoff, what supposition are you talking about?
Any gunner can confirm that at least 5 of these machines are BM.
5 is definitely more than 1.
Now, if we look what kind of stuff the army has there…
– tanks
- 122 mm SP guns
- 100 mm guns
- BM
is not what you typically use for containing terrorists.

Our unit was for exactly that – flattening the battlefield, destroying amassed troops, attacking tanks formation, weakening defences with 122 mm howitzers and BM, that's what the doctrine calls.

BMD/BMP/BTR – more likely.

The supposition that they are intended to be fired at civilians perhaps? Rather than moving into position near the border?

Now, where have I said that they will be firing at civilians?
You wanted the proof that BM were real.
The video shows that BM's ARE in the east. Locals reported them in a couple of points around Slavyansk and Mariupol, one of these vantage points is a TV tower. And of course, nobody from the Ukrainian army in his right mind will be announcing that all this stuff is there for attacking the cities.

But you're right – it happened in Chechnya, and military doctrine is still basically the same in both armies. Therefore locals are quite worried…

What else?
paramilitary in the east acting on their own? Private oligarchs armies? Right sector fighting there? No concern for life of civilians?
check another Guardian article:
link

It is so messed now, that I'm not really sure how it might end…

I don't deny their presence, but with a large army stationed just over the border I don't find it particularly surprising, especially as you have confirmed they would be a normal and integral part of that sort of military unit. We haven't seen military forces any larger than BTRs and BMDs on the roads near civilians, so any suggestion that these represent a direct threat to civilian forces is mere supposition, particularly given your description of standard doctrine, as the current opposition would hardly seem to much amassed forces or tank formations.

Indeed their direct use against civilian forces would rapidly deteriorate any support that they have, both within the rest of Ukraine and throughout the west.

I agree, it is very messed up…

Barin1:
Ukrainian troops encounter a road-block. Rather than deploying and attacking directly (very costly to both sides) they smoke it off and encircle it, taking the defenders from the flank and rear. The defenders see this developing (despite the smoke) and likely withdraw before a fight is necessary. So, Ukrainians could use smoke too! Now, admittedly, there are better and more gentle ways to deliver a local smoke screen than by a battery or regiment of BM-21's but you use what you've got.
Your point about the BM's being destined for the Ukrainian-Russian frontier is valid but you did say above,
"Therefore I think they're here for something else – like shooting road blocks. The only problem is where these rockets might end if shooting starts…"; so you can see why Geoff may have interpreted this as firing on civilians.
Cheers and thanks for your insights and perspectives which make me think and rethink what's going on in Ukraine and Russia.

I didn't mean to suggest that you were implying that they were to be used (or being used) directly against civilians, so much as they fact that they are being erroneously reported as being there precisely for that purpose for the purpose of sensationalist media, which I think is misleading and creates an atmosphere of paranoia where, in fact, there may be no cause.

Indeed, from the Guardian article you cited:

The group's [Right Sector] influence has been consistently distorted by its own boasts and Russian state media exaggerations

It also highlights the paranoia:

On the pro-Russia side, the gunmen regularly speak of the Ukrainian army as "fascists". Rumours that Ukrainians are forced to go through psychological training that allows them to kill unarmed women and children with no remorse are widespread.

The video you linked – ignoring the captions (which are a collection of tagwords covering just about everything) and him saying Mariupol… where is that column? Which way is it moving? Where is it heading? It is supposition that the BM-21s and MT-LBs with T-12 are heading to conflict with civilian units. Without knowing the agenda of the poster, we can only go on what is actually seen, which is a Ukrainian unit moving somewhere.

there's no army on Kharkiv borders

Whose army? The Ukrainian Army is there. Our friend Olga walks past them on the way to kindergarten every day. And Russian forces were significantly placed near Belgorod: link link

There is only 50 miles between the two cities.

BM (or Grad) in Russian classification is one of the most indiscriminating weapons we have seen so far in the East.
The precision is quite low, as it is first and foremost designed to shoot on "squares", compensating precison with number of explosives delivered on the head of your enemy. Seen the results of 2 batteries launch I can tell you that it is nasty. The rockets might go astray, so if you shoot the block at the city entrance, you will be hitting the buildings sooner or later. That's what I wanted to say – for now.

While there's hype on both sides on their enemies and silence on their own acts, we have to acknowledge, that the situation in the East was much more peaceful with only a few victims before military operation started. As the article shows, there's poor control over "ukrainian patriots" and I can assume that in most of the places of so-called Donetsk republic the locals are also not controlling all of the armed groups on their territory. Each clash between the groups brings more grudges, and the military operation was not able to achieve a lot – may be they have kept Kharkov out of rebel hands, but I think they were not trying hard anyway…

Absolutely, and that is the crux of the problem. This is not a massed revolution with a single direction, but multiple armed individuals with private agendas to hold power.

One choice is always 'what is the situation if we do nothing'. They were forced to do that (by implied threats of Russian intervention if they took any action) and the situation was getting worse, so it was clear that something needed to be done.

They could have gone in en mass, a direct drive by the Ukrainian Army using indiscriminate weapons that would result in severe civilian losses. That would clearly be unacceptable to all parties and have a negative response on the intended result.

They have opted for (whether at their own initiative or by CIA suggestion) a cautious and measured response, engaging small units of armed men.

At all times the stated intention had been to move towards an open Presidential election on 25 May. At no time was it stated that the east would be unable to vote – they took that option themselves seemingly on the basis that they don't like who might get voted in. Well, it's a sad truth that not everyone will vote for the democratically elected person – you only have to look at the US elections from a few years back to see that.

Sadly some civilians have been caught in the fire (one notably who gained significant media attention was a 21 year old girl… who was bringing food and drink to armed gunmen on a barricade when it was struck. While sorry for her loss, if you are going to stand in a likely battle zone…) but as far as I am aware all engagements have been specifically targeted towards armed men holding government buildings, not the people themselves in general.

UN sounds alarm on human rights in east Ukraine: link

The UN has published a 37 page monitoring document which finds:

…a growing lawlessness in eastern and southern Ukraine:

> Peaceful demonstrations, primarily by supporters of Ukraine's unity, deteriorate into violence

> Protesters are attacked and beaten

> Local police do nothing to prevent the violence and sometimes openly co-operate with the attackers

UN monitors have also documented cases of targeted killings, torture and abduction, primarily carried out by anti-government forces in eastern Ukraine.

It also found "serious problems" of harassment and persecution of ethnic Tatars in Crimea, the mainly ethnic Russian region Moscow annexed in March.

Noted primarily, but not exclusively.

"Those with influence on the armed groups responsible for much of the violence in eastern Ukraine [must] do their utmost to rein in these men who seem bent on tearing the country apart"

Difficult to know if theey are referring to just the eastern groups, all groups or the army, but I am assuming they mean Right Sector as much as the Donetsk groups.

The same Guardian article:

< Indeed, it has resulted in bloodshed on a number of occasions so far, most notably in Mariupol last Friday, when at least eight people died when the national guard entered the city to clear the police station of separatist fighters. On their retreat, troops fired at civilians, almost all of whom were unarmed.>

Typical panic shooting of the armed personnel without proper military training.

We also had a young nurse killed in a car, several hundred meters from road block and another young woman shot on her balcony in Slavyansk. BBC said her death was called by "stray bullet", it could also be a sniper shot (( that's what locals claim) as she got a bullet in her head.

Today we cah see a rise in tensions, as the ultimatum for "occupation troops" was over this night. If locals start attacking the troops in the East it can be bloody for both sides. It is not clear, what exactly happened with military units, that were located in the East before the trouble started – were they withdrawn, joined the rebels, blocked? there were reports only about 2 units as far as I recall.

Also, this night in Slavyansk locals reported their roadblocks attacked with artillery. I doubt that they will be waiting for more shells…

Typical panic shooting of the armed personnel without proper military training

Difficult to comment when detached from the situation. As we well know, perception of threat can look very different in the moment than on later reflection.

Were all of those civilans unarmed? Any in military uniforms? Wearing balaclavas? Advancing aggressively? It's made to sound like they were all just standing innocently by and indiscriminantly shot, which is equally not likely to be the whole truth.

BBC said her death was called by "stray bullet", it could also be a sniper shot (( that's what locals claim) as she got a bullet in her head

There is a general tendency to assume that anyone shot must be by a sniper, which is probably not the case.

It is not clear, what exactly happened with military units, that were located in the East before the trouble started – were they withdrawn, joined the rebels, blocked? there were reports only about 2 units as far as I recall.

The capured BMDs were from a group that was surrounded by non combatants, making their job hard to do. They abandoned the vehicles and, as far as i am aware, returned to Kyiv by bus. Haven't seen any reports of large scale defections by army units wholesale.

With another referendum due on Sunday, this time seeking Donetsk to be absorbed into Russia, ahead of the official presedential elections next week, there is bound to be increased tension, and clashes at some level are almost a certainty.

Unfortunately instead of trying to move towards a more inclusive election, where their rights are included and represented, eastern militia groups are just hanging on to wanting to make a part of Ukraine into a part of Russia, which is never a position that the rest of Ukraine is going to give up on easily.

In its response [to the UN report] Russia's foreign ministry said the report lacked any semblance of objectivity, and accused its authors of following "political orders" to whitewash Ukraine's new, pro-Western leaders. The report, it said in a statement in Russian, ignored "the crudest violations of human rights by the self-proclaimed Kiev authorities".

Problem is, if you just reject anything on the basis that it's not what you want to hear, it makes it very hard to find something to work with. The UN report seems to criticise armed groups on both sides (primarily, but not exclusively) and certainly isn't laying all of the blame on one side, although most of the recorded instances are certainly of kidnap, beatings, torture or murder against unity activists.

From the UN report:

Maidan: The HRMMU has been following the two separate criminal proceedings opened by the Office of the General Prosecutor: one for the killing of demonstrators and one for the killing of police officers.

So they are looking at illegal actions from both sides, although reading the detail most of it is targetted against specific Berkut officers charged with excessive use of force. 3 officers have been charged with murder.

Maidan activist Mr. Havryliuk, [who] was stripped naked, roughly pushed around and forced to stand still in the snow in freezing temperatures while a police officer filmed him with a mobile phone.

Well that would be chargeable under just about any authority.

From 9 to 23 April, five drafts laws on ‘amnesty' for the activists who have participated in the protests after 22 February were submitted to the Parliament by different political parties. While the proposed drafts varied all seek amnesty legislation that covers: actions to overthrow legal government (article 109); organisation of riots (article 294); seizure of administrative and public buildings (article 341). The majority of the proposals considered that cases of "separatism", as violations against the territorial integrity of Ukraine (article 110), should fall within the scope of an adopted amnesty law.

So those accused of separatism are considered within the amnesty laws.

"..a third-party initiative to restore law and order in one troubled city, Mariupol, seems to be succeeding…"

This seems to be led by Rinat Akhmetov, Ukraine's richest man and the main financial backer of deposed President Yanukovych. He has called for the east to remain inside a "united Ukraine", but is finding it increasingly difficult to maintain a neutral line in the east (where he has his main assets).

Steelworkers in Mariupol have begun citizen patrols after talks between officials from Akhmetov's company Metinvest. Metinvest employees could be seen on Friday removing barricades in Mariupol.

And India shows Eastern Slavs how democracy really works…

BBC have been reporting Ukrainians being forced to move from rebel-held areas….

Not quite sure how 'forced' they are, so much as feeling fearful of reprisals for speaking Ukrainian rather than Russian, so moving out of the area.

Sounds like the US will probably come out and announce "more sanctions on Russian businessmen" – there that will stop those bad people! And maybe they will send Kerry back over for another meeting to sign another very effective treaty (maybe he can hold a paper up in his hand and state to the world on twitter – "This is Peace in our time")

Had a friend staying with us the last couple of days. He's from Russia, works in Moscow, was in Kyiv a couple of weeks after the Maidan movement. Says no problem with Russian speakers in Ukraine (he doesn't speak Ukrainian) and that the mood in Moscow is perhaps not quite as supportive as the media ought like people to believe.

Nice to know….

"
The employees, wearing hard-hats and protective clothing, are operating with Ukrainian police and appear to have re-established control.

There was some confusion amid reports that some separatists had themselves agreed to let the steelworkers clear up the streets.

German Mandrakov, who commanded separatists at Mariupol's occupied government buildings, told the Associated Press news agency that his associates had fled while he was "forced" to leave the building they had controlled for weeks.

"Everyone ran away,'' he said. "Someone is trying to sow discord among us, someone has signed something, but we will continue our fight.""

Or… it could be that the real people are fed up with all this claptrap and want to get on with their lives.

Curiously…

"Workers from local steel plants set about removing barricades set up by pro-Russian separatists, forcing them out of the city."

It may just be a choice use of words, but the implication is that they were not from the city…?

"The workers say that they want to extend the practice into other cities in the east in the hope of breaking the hold of pro-Russian groups."

Geoff "Workers from local steel plants…" What district of the USW was it?
If the United Steel Workers Union is angry then the Russians better get out!

I'm always for first hand information, and not interpretation of interpretation. There's a declaration from today on mariupol city site:
link
signed by 2 managers of steel works, mayor, new head of police, leader of local DNR forces, as well as some distinguished locals.
The memorandum pledges joint actions to end violence – in particular, it is mentioned that they're asking for disarmament of all armed militants, agreement to end capturing buildings and use of force. DNR leaders, people's druzhina (steel workers formation) and police are to insure this.
Kiev authorities are asked to remove all army road blocks, declaration is promising that local police and people's druzhina will be in charge of law enforcement.

Therefore, it seems that some of the militants (bandits or formations of unknown oligarchs?) will be disarmed and removed. Not clear, what will happen with DNR formations and whether the army will withdraw. Interesting, that memorandum still calls Kiev government "Kiev authorities" and not, for instance, "Government of Ukraine".
Anyway, looks like a step forward.

Edit: read the comments to some news on city site, it seems that people can't agree on anything and the degree of tension in the discussion is quite high…

The Ukrainian crisis has developed into a propaganda war fought in the media. Russia and Kiev are accusing each other as the bad guys over eastern Ukraine and trying to take the moral high ground in the "Court of Public Opinion."

The lines between truth's and manufactured truth's are blurred. We are left to believe what we want to believe depending on which side we sympathize with.

found Slavyansk site, where people are updating each other on shootings/explosions/attacks in various districts of the city and its suburbs:
link

of course it is in Russian.
It seems that Kiev troops are using artillery and 120 mm mortars.

Do they say they have sight of artillery in use, or is every explosion artillery in the same way that every bullet is a sniper?

Galina was reading the Sloviansk forum – lots of discussions of "the windows shook so it must be artillery", and "if it was artillery you would hear a 'whoosh', not just the explosion". Lots of theories, not much facts.

Mariupol agreement seems to have been negotiated with the army, with local assurances that if the army removes the blockades (intended to prevent external activists entering the city) they will establish and maintain control.

It seems that they weren't paying much attention to the police, but a united front of the Mayor, several local businesses, several Trades Unions, the women's union, teaching unions, etc fronted by some pretty upset steelworkers is having the right effect.

Well, I can tell the sound of one gun from another, as well as mortar shots. BTW, have she read the part when the shell hit the house? The results of direct hits from various artillery is also different…
the pic on this page is definitely not a spent AK cartridge ;)
link

Another first hand bit of information.

Russian friend living in UK had her sister come over.

"Thank god we managed to rescue Crimea from the fascists"

Tanya has corrected her.

It's a forum. Lots of contradictory suggestions, eg…

P.S. Я считал время от момента выстрела до соприкосновения с целью, так вот в выстрелах разлёт до 2-3 секунд доходит. Если это мины, то +- 500 метров минимум, точности никакой, зато жители в напряжении и страхе.
P.P.S. Судя по всему сепаратисты ополченцы с баллистикой не дружат, как в прочем и с математикой, экономикой, сельским хозяйством, промышленностью и т.д.

The second referendum, originally proposed for today, seems to gave been remarkably quiet?

link

2Russia's President Vladimir Putin has ordered troops near Ukraine's border to withdraw, the Kremlin says.

Units in the Rostov, Belgorod and Bryansk regions should return to their permanent bases, a statement said.

Now we wait to see if they are actually going this time.

Not bad considering they've been denying they were there for the past month or so. I spot another credibility gap appearing.

BBC Analysis:

"Some people may be wondering if there is a command and control problem in the Russian military. For this is actually the third time that Russian units have been ordered to pull back to their bases from their positions on Ukraine's border.

There was supposedly a partial withdrawal at the end of March. Only one battalion moved. A full withdrawal was ordered in early May but according to senior Nato military sources the troops are still very much there. Now a withdrawal order has come from the Kremlin again.

Of course there is nothing wrong with Russia's command system. President Vladimir Putin clearly decided that, whatever the public pronouncements, the threat of 40,000 troops on Ukraine's border was a powerful tool whether they were used or not.

This was by the way not the "planned spring phase of military training" as the Kremlin asserts but an unprecedented deployment of combat-ready forces designed specifically to threaten the Kiev government."

link

Well, the thing is, that I expect that at least 15000-20000 troops are normally deployed around Ukrainian border anyway.NATO was providing pics of the troops deployment 75 km from the border near Belgorod, and I'm pretty sure they have several units stationed in the city on the constant base…

Belgorod is less than 50km from the Ukrainian border: link

I think the difference was that there was an increase in the number of troops and increased traffic along the border: link

However whether that increase was significant may be debateable (at one point they were getting excited because there were two more helicopters, which seemed excessive)

However Russian BMDs were being transported, on and off rail, within 30km of the border which, given the situation, was bound to increase tension.

The Kremlin statement:

eng.kremlin.ru/news/7195

"Russia appeals for the immediate halt of punitive operations and use of force, withdrawal of troops, and resolution of the various problems through peaceful means alone.

One may consider if the situation hadn't been stirred up in the first place (or at the very least a stronger disapproval of separatist action issued) then military action wouldn't have become necessary as they were already heading towards full presidential elections scheduled for 25 May. The army was mobilised directly against a perceived threat of invasion by a sizeable military force on the border, compounded by militant actions popping up all over the region, and the rapid isolation and transfer of a sizeable area of Ukraine.

"President Vladimir Putin welcomes the first contacts between Kiev and supporters of federalisation, seeking to establish direct dialogue in which all parties concerned should take part."

I'm not sure that representatives from east Ukraine were ever forbidden from talks. Note that he is referring to 'supporters of federalisation' whereas the separatist activists are after full independence and/or integration with Russia, not federalisation.

Of course occupiers of government buildings forming heavily armed militia with views such as this may have been given a different stance:

"They're bandits and they call us separatists, they're threatening us with life imprisonment. So far as we are concerned, they are war criminals and face a death sentence."
link

Furthermore, following completion of the spring military training programmes that involved troop redeployment and exercises at test grounds in Rostov, Belgorod and Bryansk regions, Mr Putin sent the order to the Defence Minister for troops that took part in these exercises to return to their usual garrisons and continue their training at neighbouring test grounds."

So, pretty much confirmation that 3 sizeable armies have been stationed around the Ukrainian border. They have been 'training' since January… 'continue training'? I'd hate to see the bill…

The problem with this is, if a full withdrawal was not actually ordered in early May, as the Kremlin stated it was, then Putin lied, and if a full withdrawal was ordered but not acted upon does it means he no longer has effective control of the army?

Yes, I think he has full control, but again it means any future negotiations with Russia will be clouded in doubt about whether or not they (meaning Putin) will acually follow through.

This whole episode has been messy for Ukraine, but a political and diplomatic disaster for Russia, and (as far as Ukraine is concerned) the situation with Crimea is far from over…

As always, it is not all that easy ;)

Ukrainian army started attacking in the East after Russia assured both Obama and Merkel that our army is not going over the border. I will have no problem if Ukrainian army will be just deployed here, but apart of the army we have plenty of various paramilitary with dubious reputation, and they're all there for some kind of "anti-terrorist" operation, that works better in the places where the army is not shooting at all.

We have already discussed a couple of times that if you really want to occupy the East, you're attacking before Ukrainians assemble their own forces – even if they stand little chance…

And now, I'll open a great Russian military secret. The troops and their equipment are rarely located in cities, and can be hundreds of km from large regional capitals. Training grounds can be very close to deployment locations, or within 200 km, and you also have so-called "reserve mobilization field spots". Therefore, you can take a unit located 25 km from Belgorod, redeploy it to the field, say 50 km closer to Ukraine, put the tents. move the armor and just stand there, making exercises without live ammo – actually the cost is pretty low. Then you announce that these troops are withdrawn to their bases.
You can move part of it back, but it will still be close to the border. Therefore, what was probably happening is just some relocation within 100 km zone, so US/NATO were not happy…
OSCE mission officers, as well as journalists, visited Russian side of the border in March, and there was also aero-scouting mission.
link

Nobody reported any confirmed specific increase in troops build-up, the only proof so far are some commercial satellite pictures without geo-coordinates.

30-40 k troops is one army-size deployment actually…and if Putin now ordered them to cancel exercises, they will return to the points of their constant deployment – may be still pretty close to the border.

As for the "round table" talks I think I've provided Reuters link in this thread?
The so-called "separatists" and "terrorists" were never ever invited for the talks in Kiev, and now, in Kharkiv. There was also an interview with former president, Kravchuk, who confirmed that Kiev never intended to talk with "criminals".

Donbass wanted federalization before military operation started, now it is much more difficult to find a common ground.

I understand, that even if Russia was spotless, with propaganda war it would be covered with dirt from head to toes…but we have also worked in this direction pretty good on our own ;)

True, but standing that number of troops on the border of a country that is already nervous is not exactly going to reduce tensions, especially after you have just annexed a large portion of it.

The Ukrainian Army moved against the separatists but was threatened that any action could (would) see a sizeable military response to protect 'Russian interests'. As they are all Ukrainian citizens, this in itself could also be a veiled threat at enforced annexation, especially given that they had just done so it Crimea. I think its clear that the Ukrainian armed forces would be no match, militarily, for a sizeable, professional (and nuclear backed) army.

Regarding actions in the east, I think it is unrealistic to expect any government, even an interim one, to stand by and watch government buildings be seized by armed gunmen without some sort of response. So far, the response has been pretty limited to small actions directly targeted against roadblocks or government buildings.

Any logistics people want to put a cost on relocating 40,000 troops by 25-50km?

Mr Putin has welcomed initial talks between Kiev and some of the separatists and has termed the presidential election a "step in the right direction".

So it seems they have been included?

Putin welcomed OSCE "road map"
link
however it seems that idea to involve all parties evolved to "Kiev-loyal parties"
Again, a question of interpretation.

If you plan the training budget, it doesn't really matter, when you use it. 40K was coming from Nato sources, I will not be surprised if actual number is much smaller.

Anyway, what I don't understand, is another drill that was announced for 25th of May… This one looks quite provocative, however Putin can still cancel it as a bargaining chip.

Yeah… but that's RT again, already a dubious source. I do love how it has become Moscows Road map for peace though.

I think the question remains whether putting a sizeable force on alert within close proximity to the border, and in the face of a recent annexation by that same nation, could do anything but raise tension.