"The partition of Ukraine..." Topic

It will certainly make the likes of Iran and North Korea more reluctant to give up nuclear weapons against any promise of territorial security.

Geoff:
And many more potential countries which are not so "out there" may also give nukes a long hard look too. Am I way off the mark here (honestly I think I am) or is there a chance that a wounded Ukraine might realistically consider nuclear rearmament down the road?
Rod Robertson.

I wouldn't be surprised if that question hasn't been considered, whether by their own design of through purchase.

Whether anyone would let them have them is a different question…

Is it then a case of give us back our nukes, or gives us back Crimea?

I don't think Russia would ever cooperate in a nuclear rearmament of Ukraine but other very foolish powers might. This raises very disturbing questions indeed and I don't like the possible answers. I think Crimea is lost but perhaps Ukraine could get compensation out of Russia in lieu of territory. However trying to do so through nuclear blackmail seems a suicidal strategy.

I don't think Russia would ever cooperate in a nuclear rearmament of Ukraine

Agreed

but other very [foolish] powers might

Agreed

I think Crimea is lost but perhaps Ukraine could get compensation out of Russia in lieu of territory

Slightly surprised compensation hasn't been mentioned yet, but I doubt Crimea will simply written off.

However trying to do so through nuclear blackmail seems a suicidal strategy.

Absolutely

next round of Q&A session.

Ukraine agreed to abandon nuclear weapons before 1994 – in 1991. disarmament was started in 1991-1992. a bit of the story here: link

Ukraine was also trading nuclear bombers and even missiles for gas and hard currency with Russia…and may be not only with Russia. A couple of years ago Rada commission could not account for about 200 warheads… I can hardly believe that Russia could have agreed with the existence of 3 new nuclear powers near its borders. Russia understands that the world is still not interested in it now, too.
As for nuclear deterrent…Ukraine is by far not the first example. No problems bombing Serbia/Lybia/Iraq/Afghanistan/ but not starving Orwell world of NKorea…
Russia would like to keep economic ties with Europe, but of course BRICS countries are a viable alternative. We're not too happy of being good pals with Chinese, as they can be a potential threat. Still, in mid term it is very possible.
Some steps were made yesterday…unsurprisingly USA is still waving sanctions club and Europe is expressing caution… However the problem is that the East might not listen to Putin – when you have your cities shelled and civilians killed, you may have problems disarming and accepting such government. The West doesn't see the East federalists as a separate force, but to my mind it is a big mistake.

Compromise – more independence for local authorities in the east in regards to language, budget, administration. Disarmament of both pro-western and pro-eastern militants – at the same time, under international control, no excuses like "national guard", etc. Amnesty to federalists. Then it might work.

Not sure they have been shelling any cities.

But I agree that a compromise is needed. Problem is it will take one side to back down first, and they both think they are right.

…disarmament was started in 1991-1992

The original decision was made in 1990, but the resolution 'On the Ratification of the Treaty Between Russian Federation and USA On the Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Weapons of June 7, 1991' didn't take place until 1993 and the first shipments were not sent until March 1994, coinciding with the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, in which Russia (along with the US) pledged to respect Ukraine territorial integrity.

Internal security, rather than base economics, was a fundamental part of the agreement. The fact that they received financial recompense for giving them up (and yes, Ukraine needed money) surely should not detract from the assurances under the Budapest Memoradum, and would certainly (to my mind) be a strong factor to any other nature considering not developing, or surrendering, military nuclear development.

Yesterday in Andreevka Kiev forces used large caliber mortars – at least it was reported. No independent confirmation, but I wonder who can be called independent now…. And as time before 11/05 runs down, I'm afraid the army might use all equipment they have moved for the op – and they have 100 and 122 mm cannons/howitzers, SP howitzers and "Trumpeters" in the region…

Ah, ok, not seen that.

"In the village of Andreevka during the night people blocked entry to Right Sector members, forming a human chain along the road. Members of Right Sector opened fire, killing over 10 people,"

RT contacted Slavyansk self-defense to confirm the number of casualties. Local self-defense spokeswoman, Stella Khorosheva, claimed that 10 self-defense activists and some 30 unarmed civilians have been killed in fighting near Slavyansk.

Khorosheva described a typical attack of the Right Sector militants, saying that they are easily distinguished from the regular troops by their "black uniform and armbands." She alleged that the Right Sector specializes in fighting the civilian population who form human shields blocking the advance of Ukrainian troops.

"First they fire warning shots in the air, and then they shoot people at point-blank range… They do not let us take away the dead and injured," Khorosheva told RT.

Unfortunately tales like this [attempt to] add weight to the concept that this is a return of fascist SS Nazis in black uniforms indiscriminantly killing innocent unarmed civilians. While the story is likely to have been dramtically enhanced, if those groups are active then I agree that they should be disarmed as well, especially if Ukraine is trying to move towards a truly democratic election and a peaceful and stable solution.

It seems that Sunday's referendum will go ahead anyway, not that it has much legal standing so I suppose it is a sort of poll of what the people want, rather than any definitive direction: link

It will be intersting to see how the results come out, compared to the poll taken earlier this week:

This result, as to the effect of external influences, was perhaps more surprising:

And on Crimea:

Given the ad hoc militarization of the east and the prominent role played by the most radical fringes of Eastern Ukrainian society, I doubt the referenda will reflect the more balanced view which your stats above show. Mr. Putin was right to call for a postponement of these referenda, but alas events are taking on a life of their own. Hopefully the inertia towards secession can be overcome before Ukraine is balkanized.
Rod Robertson

As Putin visits Crimea (possibly not the wisest move as it is bound to stir up more trouble in Ukraine, from both sides), BMPs are rolling on the streets in Mariupol:

link

You would think that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would focus on disarming Slavyansk before rushing to other cities. They should have a slow and determined policy of disarming and retaking cities one or two at a time. Ukrainian forces should use the minimum force possible and as much negotiation as the Russian ethnic population is willing to allow in a slow and deliberate policy of reintegration of the East. This movement and jumping from one city to the next makes me think that the purpose of these attacks is not so much to wrest control of these cities back, but to disrupt separatists' plans to hold referenda on Sunday. And that seems pointless to me because no matter how disrupted the referenda are, the Pro-Kiev Ukrainians will see them as invalid and the Pro-Russian Ukrainians will claim them to be proof of their separatist destiny. Lives saved (and not killed) are more important than gaining a momentary political edge in this conflict. Slow, steady and as gentle as possible is the way to go. What's the point of winning back these angry oblasts if in doing so you make it impossible to win the peace?

I think they're going to leave Salvyansk until last.

Certainly they seem to be taking a much more robust attitude- reports say they killed 20 rebels today for the loss of one soldier.

Alas it seems civilians were also killed in the fighting – which won;t make reconciliation any easier.

One does have to wonder however how many other nations would have had this degree of forbearance.

I mean if Tartars took over a police station in Crimea, what would happen?

Or for that matter, militiamen doing the same in the USA.

I think they're going to leave Salvyansk until last.

Certainly they seem to be taking a much more robust attitude- reports say they killed 20 rebels today for the loss of one soldier.

Alas it seems civilians were also killed in the fighting – which won;t make reconciliation any easier.

One does have to wonder however how many other nations would have had this degree of forbearance.

I mean if Tartars took over a police station in Crimea, what would happen?

Or for that matter, militiamen doing the same in the USA.

They're facing the same problem as Russia faced in Chechnya. At least half of the people, if not majority, are against authorities. Driving tanks into the cities is always a bad idea. At least rebels are not using – yet – IED and rocket launchers within the cities, preferring persuasion to bullets.
link
but I guess it will change as death list goes longer.

BBC reported talking to a bunch of villagers in Ukraine.

In front of the reporter Russian speakers threatened to drive a Ukrainian teacher out of her home if she dared voice pro-Kiev sentiments again.

It's all getting a bit like Bosnia.

As for the Ukrainians – they'te not using thermobaric munitions or heavy artillery, which seems to have been the standar drussian response.

And I do blame Russia for this. Their media, in telling the eastern Ukrainians that fascist death squads are coming to murder them, are to blame for this crisis as much as anyone.

It's going to be I fear a self-fulfilling prophecy. Moscow seems to want to goad Kiev right until houses start burning and refugees clog the roads.

I suppose seeing tanks and paramilitary shooting everything that moves makes stronger impression than any TV program.
It made impression even on Merkel and Holland…who start talking about "proportional" use of military force. I wonder what exactly it will mean for Kiev…
But of course, it is much more easier to blame Russia for everything. Now Russia is also to be blamed if Kiev will not be able to organize elections on 25th of May…

That would be because Russia is arming and supplying the rebels who have destabilised part of Ukraine and have, let's remember, stolen a chunk of it.

The paramilitaries and tanks wouldn't have been needed had Russian media not scared the people of Donetsk etc witless with their lies and propaganda.

Given Merkel and Holland are talking of more sanctions it would appear the EU has decided to accept some pain>

I wouldn't want to be Russian if we get serious. Between the USA and EU we could cripple Russias' economy in weeks.

Regardless of all nice accusiations, nobody ever produced any reliable evidence that RF was arming rebels. I'm nor sure who's lying more…I guess Kiev state TV will get the first place, giving you 3 wrong versions of the event in one day. Why do you think that people are fools? We in FSU are not trusting state media, that is true for Ukraine as well. As long as the west considers East to be witless puppets who can't form their own opinion, the peace there is doomed. BTW, state troops are normally going for TV towers first, destroying transmitters.
EU will not be hitting hard with sanctions. First, these president elections will be considered legal even if we have only 3 voters. Therefore, I really don't know what can Russia do to prevent the elections from happening.
Not all of Europe is living on the island, and will have hard time if Russia starts hitting back – at least for now.
In the end Europe might end buying more expensive LPG from US and military industry will be flourishing…
And finally – we lived tough in 80s, we don't want it, but we can survive. The question is, can Europe really afford another Iron Curtain, too.

There is a distinct disparity between the picture bring painted by Russian state sponsored TV, and the media outside of Russia. Unfortunately the Russian tv version is a misleading view that massed hordes of Nazi uniformed fascist Right Sector Bandera bandits are coming to murder them in their sleep which, with the exception of the odd nutcase carefully selected for maximum sensationalist media effect, is painting a very false and biased view of the situation.

In Crimea the local networks were disabled, giving people only access to this distorted view. This has happened again in eastern Ukraine. If all you were able to access was this Russian media version of the truth you might very well be inclined not to trust anyone west of Kharkiv.

(incidentally, contrary to the Russian media/officoal Russian version of voting, it seems that the Crimea vote was a much lower turnout (30% of all Crimean residents), with a much closer result than reported (more like 50%))

The mayor of Kharkiv denounced separatist acts before he was shot. We are told that (by locals living there) Kharkiv rounded up a couple of bunches of trouble makers (none of whom were from Kharkiv) and took schedules off them. After that, the police were in place before any action. Note that Kharkiv immediately dropped in the level of separatist activity, and it arose in Odessa and Mariupol instead. Coincidence?

I don't think Russia is solely directly behind the action (I suspect bandit groups are significant, although it is possible that some covert Russian operations were established at the outset – that said, Russia has screwed her believability factor by admitting that Russian troops WERE active in Crimea, so now nobody believes any denials) but they have failed to positively denounce such actions. If Russia was to positively state that it was not coming into Ukraine (which doesn't mean it is abandoning Ethnic Russians – who are mostly Ukrainian citizens) and make significant efforts to remove troops from the border then support and all this activity would drop away fast.

The elections will happen, although it may be questionable if the Donetsk autonomy group permits Donetsk citizens to vote. Donetsk region says they will hold another (unrecognised) referendum on 18 May about joining Russia. Russia needs to publically state it has no intention of absorbing Donetsk, Luhansk or Kharkiv regions, which would significantly defuse the situation.

For example…

"Thousands of Ukrainians went to vote at a polling station set up in Moscow – here people hold up their passports"

A polling station set up in Moscow, after Putin said it should not go ahead? Not exactly helping defuse a situation, is it?

"A Donetsk separatist leader told one Russian news agency that once the results are announced, all Ukrainian military troops in the region would be considered "occupying forces"."

Surely they need to wait for the results first… or do they already know those?

Based on the referendum question, the status of the government, and military, would not appear to have changed. Donetsk remains Ukraine, so not sure how they can be considered occupying Ukraine if they are Ukrainian troops??

"The head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic election commission Roman Lyagin told journalists that 89% voted in favour of self-rule, with 10% against, on a turnout of nearly 75%."

The question asked was:
"Do you support the act of state self-reliance of the Donetsk People's Republic?"

The numbers seem highly unlikely, and contrary to another poll run very recently. However this result is bound to spark off stronger claims in independence.

(I'd be tempted to cut them off myself, including access to all state funding… Russia is already finding out just how expensive Crimea is (and I don't mean politically), and really can't afford to pick up another huge debt) .

France has polling stations in London for French expats. Of course the organisation tends to be a little better…

Read elsewhere journalists are playing a game – how many times can you vote. At time I read it record was 4 votes in separate stations for one guy.

Given the ballots were amateurishly printed there is no way to trace if stuffing took place.

That might make sense for the elections, but this is just an (inconstitutional) referendum, effectively really no more than a straw poll, so who set it up in Moscow?

And with documented reports of the levels of intimidation placed on those who oppose the separatist action, it's possibly not surprising that only those in favour have attempted to vote.

Interesting that, without the network of the state behind them, they managed to announce the results almost as it closed. As you say, there was almost no system to prevent vote stuffing (despite assurances that they would all be cross checked) and anybody could vote…

As a legitimate vote, it is a complete laughable farce :-)

Unfortunately they will use this to support further aggressive action, which the government won't accept, almost certainly leading to more violence as Ukraine clamps down on separatist action (the same as would happen anywhere in the US, Europe or Russia if such armed separatist attempts were made). Donetsk intends to hold a second referendum on 18 May, asking if people want to join Russia -undoubtedly portrayed as it was in Crimea, "it's us or Nazis", and boycott the actual election which remains scheduled for 25 May. No doubt the result will be almost 100% in favour of becoming part of Russia (despite the significant proportion we know to be against it) and they will take no notice of any legitimately elected government, so now it is pretty much down to Russia to say "we don't want Donetsk" to add weight to bringing this situation under control.

This referendum, first and foremost, is the act of defiance.
With military operation in action the people are voting in protest – once we had parliament elections that were won by Zhirinovskiy party years ago.
Unfortunately, it seems that military operation started right after Russia said that it will not be using troops in Eastern Ukraine.
Saying openly now "we don't need Donetzk" is very unlikely, the East already thinks that Putin betrayed them. You think that deescalation requires the east to put down all their weapons and allow Kiev to do whatever they want. Not possible at the moment – the distrust is too great.
Voting in Moscow was organized by Donetsk businessman, who owned auto repair shop, the roof of the building was used for procedure.
As we all now, that according to Ukrianian constitution the referendum is illegal, and the organizers made it in the same way as president election – i.e. they don't care, how many people voted, of course it doesn't look really meaningful. As I said – it was an act of protest/defiance.

Interesting, that at the same time Rinat Ahmetov, the owner of Mariupol stell works proposed to organize his own militia to keep law and order in the city.

Still, may be unintentionally you consider that the protesters are either Russians or bandits – it is simply not true – and hearing the same from Kiev TV makes people queue for poll.

BTW, have you ever seen the list of those, who died in Odessa with the cause of deaths? I doubt that any western media printed it…with ca 20% shot, and ca 30% with gas poisoning it strongly contradicts all offcial versions….

It seems that rather than take an opporuntiy to defuse a situation, Russia has chosen to back it:

"Russia has called for implementation of the result of the controversial referendums organised by pro-Russian groups in eastern Ukraine."

So Russia is supporting that Donetsk (and Lughansk) should be self-ruled, despite there being no legality in the vote, a very dubious voting system (where anyone could vote just by writing their name, or indeed any name, on a piece of paper) and no constitutional procedure for it in the first place.

"In a brief statement, the Kremlin described the referendums as "the will of the people" and noted the "high turnout"."

What's worrying is that they seem to believe this 'high turnout' is actually real…

"The Russian authorities said they expected the results of the vote to be implemented in a civilised manner"

So it seems that, in the Russian parliament's eyes, anyone can have a vote and a government is supposed to just implement it. Like to see that happen in Russia ;-)

I'd expect to see a much more hard-core anti-terrorist response from Kyiv this week.

'Gas poisoning' was actually smoke inhalation.

This is the text from press-release:

Moscow hopes the results of the referendums in eastern Ukraine will instigate dialogue between Kiev and the regions that voted in favor of self-rule, according to the Kremlin's press-service.

"Moscow respects the will of the people in Donetsk and Lugansk and hopes that the practical realization of the outcome of the referendums will be carried out in a civilized manner, without resorting to violence, through dialogue between representatives of Kiev, Donetsk and Lugansk," the statement reads.

Can't see what is instigating here…as long as Kiev starts talking instead of shooting – especially as shooting is not really accomplishing anything. If you follow the news, looks like the army and locals are repeatedly capturing the same places over and over again.

And even if we deduct 20-30 % from announced voters it still means a voting of more than 50% from the list -not that it has any legal consequences. There's plenty of photoes and reporter's accounts that the turnaround was high….

As for gas poisoning there're accounts that there was a gas usage, similar to CS-like gas used by ukrainian army in Mariupol. However, as the people were buried, now we're either have to beleive local paramedics or ignore their statement.

Barin,
In reference to one of your previous postings: We (in the US) don't trust our press either. The press as a whole seems to have become official mouthpieces for whoever wants to pay them.
There isn't any great fidelity in anything the US press says.
I usually try to find a translation and/or use BBC/Spanish or Italian press to back-check anything in the US press.
Bob

"According to the Interior Ministry… about 24% of people eligible to vote took part in the so-called referendum the Luhansk Region and slightly over 32% in the Donetsk Region," he said.

While that is probably on the low side (for equal propaganda purposes) it's a more likely a much closer representation. 98% of those who turned up is probably too high and "armed gunmen were visible inside the polling station" – like Crimea – is hardly a reasonable atmosphere and certain to add a certain weight to those who did vote.

"Moscow respects the will…" of who? A minority militant population? Would they respect that will if it took place in Russia? Or would they seek an immediate hardline put down to restore order? The agenda here is not Ukraine, it's using Ukraine.

The photos 'look' like a lot of people, but it's a few hundred in areas with populations of well over a million. Bear in mind that only 3 million ballot papers were printed, which is about the same as lifeboats on the Titanic… not enough by half. Yes, ideally it would have been nice to see the silent majority vote 'no' and put an end to thus, but we knew from the outset that wasn't going to happen.

Not quite sure where these reports of CS gas are coming from, certainly in Odessa where the security forces and local enforcement were particularly noted for not getting involved.

Donetsk has now declared itself an independent region, therefore no elections can take place and any Ukrainian Armed forces are to be considered occupying forces. They (at least the leader and his small group) have called for Russian peacekeepers and a move towards Donetsk being 'absorbed into Russia'.

Local Ukrainians within Donetsk are currently living in fear, especially those who don't speak Russian. Many are selling up (as much as they can, house prices are zero) and moving west. The region is now in danger of becoming another Serbia, with indirect but effective ethnic cleansing by intimidation, if not actual violence.

There is, of course, no legal or constitutional standing for this declaration and so far it has not been recognised anywhere outside of the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic, so it carries about as much weight as me declaring Winchester (Hampshire) as independent :-)

As Barin correctly states, it is of course a statement that the rights of ethnic Russians (who are also Ukrainian citizens) do need to be considered in any election process and government, however I think the self-declared leader of Donetsk (he has not been elected) now has too much feel of power to let this go.

Incidentally, we have heard reports of Romanian passports being handed out in Crimea…

CS is prohibited in war. but there is no war, this is an internal security problem of the type you would normally expect to be handled by local enforcement. That said, where you are seeing increased levels of opposition, armed insurrection and/or rioting it is not unprecedented for the armed forces to be used.

CS gas (and there are multiple different types, all generally lumped under the same sort of title) is normally considered a non-lethal control and widely used. That said, deaths have occurred (a famous one in Israel was considered to be as much a case of bring struck in the chest by a 40mm round as it was the gas).

Note that this is widely used as a self-defense chemical agent spray in Russia, so it's use in Ukraine should be no surprise, and under the circumstances would almost be expected. If it resulted in deaths that would be unfortunate and generally the exception rather than a normal and expected consequence (there does seem to be evidence of higher incidents where it is used in contained spaces, such as rooms, rather than externally as a crowd dispersal agent).

Certainly any claims of deliberate or intentional gassing are misleading and sensationalist if that's the way they have been portrayed.

link

Ukrainian speakers in the eastern region of Donetsk have started leaving the area, fearing for their safety as pro-Russian militants tighten their grip. The fears are greatest amongst pro-Ukrainian activists who have spoken out against the ethnic Russians leading the drive to break away from Ukraine. "Almost all my activist friends have now left", [reports Olga, a Ukrainian Donetsk businesswoman.]

Their fears are [may be] well-founded. Pro-Russian militants have been filmed dragging activists into the now notorious regional government building in Donetsk city. There are reports that one floor of the building is used as a makeshift prison and interrogation centre. The glass entrance doors have been covered, making it impossible to see what is happening inside.

Sunday's unofficial referendum on independence organised by the pro-Russian separatists highlighted and exacerbated the division. It seems very few Ukrainian-speakers took part.

"It was a joke, it was illegal and we just didn't react to it because the aim of the referendum was to break up Ukraine," said Olga. "There was nothing in it for us."

Fears of west Ukrainian Bandera bandits killing all Russian speakers seem to have been media hyped [particularly by sensationalist Russian state-sponsored media stories].

"…many easterners have been convinced by the Russian media that they are under massive attack from a fringe Ukrainian nationalist group called the Right Sector…"

However fears for east Ukrainian citizens who would prefer unity seem to be very real. This is BBC reporting, but we have been hearing similar stories from actual friends on the ground in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Poltava and Crimea (as well as in west Ukraine). People towards the east are trying to avoid speaking Ukrainian outside for fear of actual violence directed against them.

What is the legal and political implications of the referenda in Luhansk and Donetsk?
Will Ukraine fight to hold onto Luhansk and Donetsk or are they destined for separation or annexation?
Are other oblasts likely to follow the lead of the separatists?
Will the non-marginalized majority of Eastern Ukrainians become polarised in the wake of the referenda and choose sides or can they maintain a balanced and reasonably objective stance and push for moderation and dialogue?
Will Russia intervene openly if widespread fighting breaks out in the separatist oblasts either between internal factions or through conflict with the Kiev government's troops?
What constructive roles can outside powers play in this crisis?

At the end of WWII the Allies forced the mass migration of Germans out of non-German territories. In this mass deportation between 14 -16 million Germans were deported back to Germany and between one and two million died in this mass migration. I wonder if the same fate will be suffered by Russian populations in the countries of the former Soviet Union if the Ukraine Crisis is taken as an omen of what can happen if you have a legitimately dissatisfied and angry Russian minority in a state near or boarding Russia? I also wonder if Mr. Putin is computing this possibility in the political calculus he is performing during the present crisis. The Law of Un-intended Consequences could play havoc in Europe.

Legally the referenda don't meet international standards and will be ignored.

There's no way the West will allow those bits of Ukraine to merge with Russia without Kiev agreeing.

The EU are already preparing more sanctions, and Russias' economy is being hammered as it is.

Of course if they did merge, Russia would simply inherit a partizan problem, one I don't think Putin wants.

All Putin has done is icnrease defence spending in Eastern Europe and ensured the EU will look at alternative supplies of natural gas.

As for the German migration – not sure how much of it was forced, as opposed to Germans taking a view about the consequences of being occupying by the Red Army.

But I don't think the Russian minority is as annoyed as is made out – we have a minority of thugs making a lot of noise.

This will change of course if Kiev does something stupid.

Putin needs to consider his options carefully. He's got a lot more to lose than gain from this situation.

The problem for Kyiv is doing nothing makes them look ineffective, and trying to do anything else is being touted as attacking their own people.

Bangorstu:
How much weight do the various parties put on legality. This is a political situation and legal compliance may rate quite low in some groups estimation?
What can the West do but whine and threaten more sanction which the Europeans are unenthusiastic about implementing in the short term?
Your point about a resistance movement and possible guerrilla warfare is well taken.
Your points about the Russian economy are good but Russia has demonstrated dogged determination in the face of adversity before and may surprise us again. Also, the growing Asian economies might provide relief from any curtailing of the Russian economy by Euro-American sanctions in the medium and long term.
Politically active minorities (thuggish or otherwise) tend to drive such events – England 1642 and 1688, America 1776, France 1789, Russia October 1917, India/Pakistan 1948, Cuba 1959, etc.
I am not sure about the Putin cost-benefit analysis.
Kiev and stupid acts – stupidity is often in the eye of the beholder -just about anything Kiev opts for may seem stupid to some party in this mess.
Thanks for you insights. and observations, they make me think about what I take for granted.
Geoff:
A rock and a hard place indeed. Slow but determined military force with minimum levels of force possible, coupled with a parallel programme of conciliation and negotiation towards a looser Federal Structure with semi-autonomous regions. This followed, when and if things calm down, by a National Conference of people's delegates (not government officials, civil servants, technocrats and oligarchs) elected to hammer out a constitution of the peoples and for the peoples which allows all to live in Ukraine in dignity and peace.
Rod Robertson.

"Ukraine is due to host round-table talks in Kiev as efforts continue to find a negotiated settlement to the crisis in the east of the country.

The talks will include members of the interim government and regional leaders, but pro-Russian separatists have refused to take part."

This is the problem, you can't negotiate with someone who doesn't want to negotiate. Despite being a minority, these people only have one agenda.

Again, this is one side of the story. What kind of "regional leaders" Kiev is talking about? All governors are appointed by new government, and real leaders are all ubder the threat of being arrested as soon as they will enter territory, controlled by Kiev.
We also have some attempts to detain them, or even kill – like described in the same BBC article.
I have some hopes for OBSE "road map", but not some negotitions taking place at the same time with military opertaion.

Gunfire, blasts in insurgent-held Ukraine city
link

U.S. releases satellite images of Russian forces near Ukraine
link

Gunfire, blasts in insurgent-held Ukraine city

That was from 2 weeks ago.

The national unity round table, brokered by international monitors, was meant to be "as inclusive as possible" but it appears that the separatists were not represented. It's certainly not because they were not invited.

All governors are appointed by new government, and real leaders are all ubder the threat of being arrested as soon as they will enter territory, controlled by Kiev.

Given that the talks are being moderated by German diplomat Wolfgang Ischinger, under international monitoring, I doubt that this is a ploy to capture and incarcerate the alleged representatives of Donetsk region.

We also have some attempts to detain them, or even kill

We don't know who shot the chap in Lughansk, same as we don't know who actually shot the mayor of Kharkiv.

The interim government has said the annexation of Crimea by Russia this year cost Ukraine at least 1tn hryvnya (£49.3bn; $83 USDbn; 60.5bn euros).

I'd suggest they might like to credit that against the gas bill.

Mmm…think we had an agreement, signed&monitored by EU/Russia/USA during Maidan, think in lasted 1 day…

One of the points of OBSCE's road map is an amnesty. It was the same during Maidan agreement – regardless of anything else. As long as there're only talks about possible amnesty and nothing in binding agreement, it will not help.

You're thinking in terms of goodwill, and civilized actions and both are in serious deficite in Ukraine at the moment…

Interesting article on Guardian on Ukraine:

link

And this is of course just a coincidence:

"Biden's Son, Polish Ex-President Quietly Sign On To Ukrainian Gas Company"

link

Not sure that Donetsk was ever an issue back in Jan/Feb. But you are right that the only effective way forward is some established amnesties that are guaranteed to be enforced (probably by external monitoring), and that there is a general breakdown of goodwill and civility, not helped by media extremism fuelling the flames.

Like the ruins of Iraq and Afghanistan, Ukraine has been turned into a CIA theme park – run personally by CIA director John Brennan in Kiev, with dozens of "special units" from the CIA and FBI setting up a "security structure" that oversees savage attacks on those who opposed the February coup.

This is, of course, exactly the sort of thing that will stir up, rather than quell, antagonism between east and west, and has no represented fact behind it. It is supposition surrounded by conspiracy.

Ukraine looks to Poland for gas? Well, with Russian gas now the highest price in Europe, and well over double what it was, that is hardly surprising.

"Biden's Son, Polish Ex-President Quietly Sign On To Ukrainian Gas Company"

Not sure how quietly it was. If it was a secret, its a pretty poorly kept one. But are we to assume that every American given a job by Ukrainian companies is an attempt to infiltrate Ukrainian infrastructure, or indeed that every Russian in a management position within Ukraine over the last 20 years is a Putin infiltration? Or are we just playing the conspiracy game?

It's probably just business, and as Russia plays harder and harder ball with Kyiv, the more likely you are to see more US and European appointments as business ties are established.

There has been a general breakdown in law enforcement. To be honest, it was never particularly 'enforcing' unless it chose to be (I have some experience of that!) and in a country with a high corruption factor and an active organised crime element it makes the job much harder to do it 'right'. The recent destabilisation which is as much, if not more, to do with a complete shift in outlook as it is to do with any external influences (whether they be direct or indirect) has made that problem doubled. Police have simply said "we are not trained to fight groups of armed insurgents" and quite likely feel they don't get paid enough for it. One armed gunmen is one thing. A small army is quite a different matter. Even in the UK, if met by a significant sized armed group it is likely that special armed units, or even armed forces, would be involved.

The Right Sector presence is being overplayed. That's not to say that they are not present, and indeed not dangerous, but the eastern media image of roving bands of Banderas in black uniforms indiscriminately killing all Russian speakers is simply paranoia. With a breakdown in effective law enforcement they, like most of these small anarchic groups, are making the most of their time, because once control does become reestablished they will have to crawl back where they have been living for the last 20 years.

But those subjected to such stories, playing on the fears from nazi groups from over 70 years ago, are understandably scared, and media Baba Yaga stories are not helping. They have the east believing that those in power in Kyiv are nazis -just look at the propaganda poster in Crimea, 'Russia or Nazis?' Seriously, which way would you vote?

Stories from Odessa abound, and the more they go round the bigger they get. Conspiracy theories now have massed buses of Right Sector gunmen rounding them up, herding them into a building and setting fire to it, clubbing and shooting anyone who tried to escape. Well, that's certainly not the case if the earlier eye witness reports, or initial stories (which started as a unity football march being attacked by pro-Russians, before the tables turned and in a revenge attack the football fans attacked the pro-Russian tent camp, who retreated into the building. Molotovs were exchanged and the building caught fire – difficult to say who started it, as there is footage of the doorway on fire and, contrary to reports, fire crews putting it out, but also footage of molotovs being thrown up at windows, as well as a fire starting inside the building behind a closed (not broken) window) are to be believed. So who started these stories of Right Sector activists on buses? It's a victim of paranoid Chinese whispers that needs to be played down, not hyped up.

So where do the amnesties start? Those throwing bricks at Maydan? The Berkut snipers? The Maydan people with air rifles? Heavily armed militant types in Crimea and Donbass? Unfortunately "you put your gun down first" is not the answer, especially where the other side is the recognised law enforcement.

Many of the recent crimes will simply go unsolved, or perhaps be unsolvable, but taking up arms and declaring yourself independent is never going to go without a fight.

First, order and peace must be restored – that will require violence (measured and as minimal as possible, but violence nonetheless). The Ukrainian Armed Forces must reassert control of the separatist oblasts and they must do it in such a way as not to trigger overt Russian Intervention. They must not be seen as (or indeed actually be) singling out any one group in this matter, so they should direct their force against all groups who threaten peace, order and good governance in Ukraine. This includes right-wing groups and Maidan protestors still in the streets as well as criminal syndicates and any armed groups no matter what their political allegiance.
Along with the "stick" comes the "carrot". Parallel to the counter-insurgency campaign must be a political and social effort to solve the alienation and anger that minorities have towards any Ukrainian Central government. A peoples' constitutional conference to form a looser federation of Ukraine which allows minorities explicit rights and protections from the majority population's abuse or indifference. Truth and Reconciliation Commissions might be used for most offenses against peace, property and persons (the most serious transgressions might still need to be dealt with by courts either in Ukraine or outside of the country if necessary). These might reduce the tensions between populations and individuals and allow some healing through the airing of grievances. Amnesty for those who willingly and fully participate in Truth and Reconciliation Commissions would be important. Finally the creation of a branch of government which reflects the regions and peoples' of Ukraine and is a counter-veiling force to the "centrist" tendencies of any Kiev government. A senate of the oblasts perhaps – something to balance regional interests with majority interests.
Those nations outside of Ukraine who wish to help may consider a mini-Marshall Plan to help the East of Ukraine make the transition as smoothly and painlessly as possible from old Soviet-style industries and resource extraction to more modern industry, commerce and resource development.
Any thing is possible once order and confidence in peace is reestablished.
Rod Robertson.