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GNREP805 May 2014 7:20 a.m. PST

Geoff
Good point that if the police were pro-Russian would they have surely done more to help. Its a not uncommon phenomenon that when you get this kind of breakdown the forces of order tend to stand on the sidelines

Personal logo Legion 4 Supporting Member of TMP05 May 2014 8:57 a.m. PST

GNREP8
A recent study by Princeton determined that the US is an oligarchy, serving special interests
----------------
that makes it sound like a piece of scientifically irrefutable research as opposed to a subjective opinion, just like I'm sure studies by wacko loony group no. 5 or whatever determine that the US and UN today are run by the ZOG receiving daily orders from Tel Aviv.
LOL ! I agree, the only orders the US takes from Tel Aviv are for gunships, missiles, etc. … and anything else they don't produce themselves … wink

Personal logo Legion 4 Supporting Member of TMP05 May 2014 9:00 a.m. PST

Barin, I see forces in the region are using Dwarves and Marx clones !!!!!?! huh? How diabolical and cunning ! wink

Chortle Fezian05 May 2014 10:07 a.m. PST

Sorry, I have had a nasty insect infestation in the house which has been particularly gribly. I lost this thread.


Mikhail Gorbachev reportedly agreed to allow German reunification within NATO after being promised that NATO would not expand "one inch to the east."

link

We are in violation of an agreement which brought us considerable relief at the time. The (very) recent President of (the :-) Ukraine Yanukovych was feted until he pulled out of the Association Agreement with the European Union. A month later here is John McCain meeting with the next President and Prime Minister of Ukraine

picture

Victoria Nuland was recorded discussing who to install in government afterwards (from BBC web site)

link

Pyatt: I think we're in play. The Klitschko piece is obviously the complicated electron here. Especially the announcement of him as deputy prime minister and you've seen some of my notes on the troubles in the marriage right now so we're trying to get a read really fast on where he is on this stuff.

Nuland: Good. I don't think Klitsch should go into the government. I don't think it's necessary, I don't think it's a good idea.

Pyatt: Yeah. I guess… in terms of him not going into the government, just let him stay out and do his political homework and stuff. I'm just thinking in terms of sort of the process moving ahead we want to keep the moderate democrats together. The problem is going to be Tyahnybok and his guys and I'm sure that's part of what Yanukovych is calculating on all this.

Nuland: I think Yats is the guy who's got the economic experience, the governing experience. He's the… what he needs is Klitsch and Tyahnybok on the outside. He needs to be talking to them four times a week, you know. I just think Klitsch going in… he's going to be at that level working for Yatseniuk, it's just not going to work

The executive producer of the viral "I am a Ukranian" video is Larry Diamond who is a consultant to USAID, the UN, the National Endowment for Democracy, the State department. Yulia Tymoshenko (probably future President of Ukraine) is strongly associated with the NGO which produced that video. $5 USD billion spent influencing Ukraine. Ukraine was deliberately destabslised. This wasn't a spontaneous "peoples" revolition.

The western media is an arm of special interests. The New York Times is egregious. If you read the NYT coverage of the fire which killed 40 people in Odessa you wouldn't know that those killed were pro-Russian and the agressors were pro-Ukranian interim government. If one group own or control the media and use it to push their agenda that is a problem. The public is being instructed who are the "bad guys".

NYT:
"Violence also erupted Friday in the previously calmer port city of Odessa, on the Black Sea, where dozens of people died in a fire related to clashes that broke out between protesters holding a march for Ukrainian unity and pro-Russian activists. The fighting itself left four dead and 12 wounded, Ukraine's Interior Ministry said. Ukrainian and Russian news media showed images of buildings and debris burning, fire bombs being thrown and men armed with pistols."

link

Washington Post:
"Friday evening, a pro-Ukrainian mob attacked a camp where the pro-Russian supporters had pitched tents, forcing them to flee to a nearby government building, a witness said. The mob then threw gasoline bombs into the building. Police said 31 people were killed when they choked on smoke or jumped out of windows.

Asked who had thrown the molotov cocktails, pro-Ukrainian activist Diana Berg said, "Our people — but now they are helping them to escape the building."

link

[In psychology, cognitive dissonance is the excessive mental stress and discomfort experienced by an individual who holds two or more contradictory beliefs, ideas, or values at the same time. (from Wiki)]

GeoffQRF05 May 2014 10:21 a.m. PST

Yet there is footage of both sides throwing them.

Ukraine was deliberately destabilised. This wasn't a spontaneous "peoples" revolution.

I think pays a great disservice to those who took part (some of whom I know as friends). There may or may not have been intended or actual US influence, but the action itself was very much down to dissatisfaction of the people, particularly those below about 35.

GNREP805 May 2014 11:10 a.m. PST

Ukraine was deliberately destabslised. This wasn't a spontaneous "peoples" revolition.

The western media is an arm of special interests.
--------------
What – as in masked men in combats are an arm of the GRU?

GeoffQRF05 May 2014 11:28 a.m. PST

Media, on both sides, is regularly used as a tool of propaganda, whether intentionally or unintentionally. Sometimes it is manipulated by higher political agenda, sometimes it is just poor journalism.

BlackKnight05 May 2014 7:38 p.m. PST

I agree completely with Chortle. This whole thing is ridiculous. What is the US trying to gain? Imagine if Russia destabilized Mexico and hand-picked a bunch of far-left anti-Americans who hated English speakers and America and wanted revenge for the Mexican-American War? Would we just sit there and do nothing?

If you think I am exaggerating you need to research Pravy Setor and Svoboda. Svoboda had a face-lift recently but they are a neo-fascist party and not a minor party, either. There is no question on Pravy (Right) Sector. Look up Stepan Bandera and his organization of Nazi collaborators and then realize he is being lionized in Western Ukraine.

We poked a hornet's nest by getting in Russia's face in Ukraine. Anyone of us who studies history (that's all of us here at TMP) knows that Russia has repeatedly been traumatized by aggression from the West. The last one (yes them Nazis!)almost destroyed them. And yes the Nazis were going to liquidate all Slavs. They even said so. Somehow the Western Ukrainians miss out on that.

The Russians are to this day (hello May 9) deservedly proud of having put paid to the Nazis and to their collaborators. And in any event the Russians will not tolerate a hostile government in Ukraine. And why do we want one there? Does the US need to expand our hegemony and have client states on the Russian border? Russia could be an ally against Muslim extremism and a trading partner (who we could help liberalize through friendship rather than castigation) but instead we are pushing the relationship over a cliff.

I also agree the propaganda on the US side has been atrocious. The Nuland tape shows clearly that we instigated and financed this fiasco. But only Russia is to blame? Because they don't like having a hostile neighbor? It's ridiculous. When the Maidan folks seized buildings, used weapons, and firebombed police (police not army were used against them, btw) they were seen as heroes. But when Eastern Ukrainians of Russian ethnicity do the same (and now face Ukrainian army troops and Mi-24 attack choppers, not police) they are terrorists. The hypocrisy is rank.

Chortle is also exactly right that the Western press entirely glossed over the fact that the pro-Russians in Odessa were deliberately burned alive. People were prevented from escaping. In addition, does it make sense to you that a few hundred pro-Russians would attack several thousand pro-Kiev demonstrators? There is a lot of weirdness going on over there, but the Western press is failing to live up to its supposed objectivity and reputation for investigative journalism. They see only evil Russians and good Kievite Ukrainians.

Meanwhile, Kiev continues to attack pro-Russian militias in the East with army units. Can this do anything but provoke the Russians into attacking and taking control of eastern Ukraine? I think not. That then raises the even more disturbing question: If Kiev knows these attacks will provoke Russia, why are they continuing them? God help us if the West or US has somehow given military assurances.

It's a nightmare and it could all have been avoided but for Western hubris.

Personal logo Legion 4 Supporting Member of TMP05 May 2014 9:37 p.m. PST

The Western media is not an arm of special interests, it's much more like poor polarized journalism … And I'm pretty sure the US has had no one influencing any one on the ground in the Ukraine … someone is reading too many Clancy novels … And giving Western spy agencies too much credit … Besides politicians talking a lot, sanctions of some sort being introduced or talked about and the US may be sending medical supplies and such. The US expects to gain nothing other then show the world it is trying to help without starting WWIII … Because in the end the US and the West really can do nothing of any real effect without going to war. And even the end results of that would be questionable. Sanctions take time to have any effect … and that may be arguable as well. And no one in the West in their right mind wants to go to war over the Ukraine … And Putin knows all this …

GeoffQRF05 May 2014 11:27 p.m. PST

Note that the $5 USD billion was not directly spent on destabilisation – that is an assumption – it is money that the US has spent since 1991 aiding Ukraine since they became independent building up its democratic institutions, and a private conversation about who the US might prefer in government is not necessarily the same as "this is who we intend to put in charge"

Whereas Putin's adviser on Ukraine, Sergei Glazyev openly said Russia "must interfere in Ukraine" and the authorities there "should use force against the demonstrators"
.

GeoffQRF05 May 2014 11:34 p.m. PST

Bandera was hardly a nazi collaborator. In fact he spent most of the war in a nazi camp. His band of partisans saw both nazi and Soviet as invaders and fought both sides.

Much like France, Ukraine was pretty much taken over by nazi Germany, however to many they were seen initially as liberating them from Soviet control. That changed as they came to realise they had swapped one invader for another.

Much like that other dubious hero, Robin Hood (clearly a terrorist to the State at the time) Bandera gained a bit of a mythical status, but Bandera was no hero – in fact he was a bit xenophobyically polarised; you were either with him or against him.

Bangorstu06 May 2014 4:41 a.m. PST

Problem wasn't so much US interests as Ukraine joining the EU. Putin doesn't want Ukraine rich enough to have independent thoughts….

Interestingly the BBC correspondent is saying Putin runs the risk of disillusionment amongst the pro-Russian rebels.

They were rather expecting Russian military help by now….and aren't happy about fighting the Ukrainian army all on their lonesome.

GeoffQRF06 May 2014 5:01 a.m. PST

picture

picture

That's what (western and central) Ukraine is really looking at…

They were rather expecting Russian military help by now….and aren't happy about fighting the Ukrainian army all on their lonesome.

Russia was never really interested in coming. Russia got (Sevastopol naval base) Crimea without having to discount gas any more.

Rod I Robertson06 May 2014 5:29 a.m. PST

Chortle and BlackKnight:
Thank you for your comments. While they are not the whole story, they are a part of the story which is too often ignored in the West. Well said. We should be open to all sides in a discussion like this.
Legion4:
While the "Media" are not an arm of the state they often reflect the biases and prejudices of the state to the detriment of other points of view. Also, the "Media" are businesses and therefore reflects a pro-business outlook when reporting the news and editorial content.
Rod Robertson.

Bangorstu06 May 2014 8:18 a.m. PST

Rod – if you think the British media are in any way either pro-business or indeed reflect the prejudices of the government, I can only assume you've never seen any British output.

GeoffQRF06 May 2014 8:22 a.m. PST

Lol

GeoffQRF06 May 2014 8:26 a.m. PST

Mr Lavrov called an election "unusual" at a time when the army was being used against the population.

Or indeed a referendum held when a country is under de facto military control?

Rod I Robertson06 May 2014 9:16 a.m. PST

Bangorstu:
The media in Britain may disagree with the government on points of policy but on fundamental ideologies they are all pretty close and span a tight spectrum from left leaning social- democracy to right leaning conservatism.
Fundamental issues like should the the country be broken up or should the state adopt Sharia Law are never debated by any but the most fringe media. I live in Quebec, Canada where we make a national pastime of debating these basic principles and I used to live in Bristol, England where such topics were almost never discussed in the press or electronic media.
The empirically visible fact that media reporting on Ukraine is so different depending on the country of origin of the report is indicative of national and state bias in reports. TV 5, RAI, BBC, CNN and DW all reflect their national and state biases when reporting on the Ukraine, but none question the orthodoxy that a rapid move to a pro- western, pro-democracy, unregulated capitalist economy is a good direction to move Ukraine in. The facts on the ground do not support this, as adopting such a stance will cause political and economic upheaval especially in Southern and Eastern Ukraine which would unfairly disadvantage people living in these regions of Ukraine. If the West had Ukrainian interests at heart it would be trying to build a consensus in the country and not supporting factions and conflict as the Russians are doing too. The Western media are not making much of an effort to report on the role that the West and west-leaning oligarchs played in funding, supplying and at least attempting to direct the Maidan Revolution. There is an information partial vacuum about what is really going on behind the scenes and the very disruptive effects and affects that western economic policies can have on nations they target for a neo-liberal make over.
Geoff showed some very nice graphs about Poland's economic growth but we forget the economic misery and dislocation which Poland suffered to get to that position. We also forget the economic "carpet-bagging" which occurred in Poland when nationalised industries were bought wholesale by outside investors and dismantled or restructured to the detriment of the average Pole. Can you blame socialist leaning Ukrainians for not wanting their lives turned upside down and for resisting such an agenda coming from Kiev and the "West"? Coal miners, factory workers and family farmers have much to fear from Kiev, but the western media seldom explains that clearly. Instead the eastern Ukrainians are demonised as sinister reactionaries bent on some nefarious programme to thwart Ukraine's natural evolution to a western style nation state. The problem with evolution is it leaves a trail of extinction in its wake. Perhaps they don't want that outcome for themselves and their children.
My sermon is concluded.
But we digress from the thread and should get back on track. I apologise for this tangent.

Personal logo Legion 4 Supporting Member of TMP06 May 2014 11:20 a.m. PST

While the "Media" are not an arm of the state they often reflect the biases and prejudices of the state to the detriment of other points of view. Also, the "Media" are businesses and therefore reflects a pro-business outlook when reporting the news and editorial content.
Rod Robertson.
Depends who you listen to, CNN, FOX or MSNBC … I'm in the US. I listen to CNN and FOX … generally they tell the same story with some [notable] nuances on ocassions. However they tend to concentrate on different stories … I normally don't view MSNBC, it's not for me … Don't normally read print media either. That's what I have the TV and the internet for.

Bangorstu06 May 2014 11:50 a.m. PST

Rod – I don't know when you live din the UK, but right now the topic of whether a nation should be broken up is all over our media.

The country in question being ours….

I agree we don't have a media which thinks fundamentalist Islam is a good idea… but hey, we're not perfect.

BBC and Channel 4 have given no opinion on whether a westward move for Ukraine would be a good idea. They've merely stated that Russia doesn't want it to happen.

Neither has there been much reportage of the interesting fact that there is violence in only 2 of 8 majority Russian speaking provinces and that the rebels don't enjoy majority support even amongst Russian-speaking Ukrainians.

You are entitled to your conspiracy theories, but not your own facts.

Having met a good deal more Poles than I'm guessing you have, I'd love to know what kind of misery Poland suffered…

Certainly they think it was worth it.

Given Russian-speaking Ukrainians tend to watch state-sponsored Russian TV stations I can well understand their fears, but if you get your info from a government with a track record of murdering journalists, I guess you get what you deserve.

All I will say is compare the life of the average Pole with that of the average Russian.

Where would you prefer to live?

GeoffQRF06 May 2014 12:51 p.m. PST

Irrespective of what they may have gone through short term, the reason that Ukraine (west in particular) is looking towards the EU is that they have seen that Poland, which was on an economic par with Ukraine before joining, is now seeing a much brighter future long term.

Ukrainian friends in Kharkiv are saying that the Russian tv system is not showing a true picture of the situation on the streets, but that image is what is being seen in the more troubled areas.

Odessa was an exception, a situation that got out of hand with an unfortunate fire. A bit like Bradford City, people were trapped and unable to escape, despite local efforts.

Rod I Robertson06 May 2014 1:33 p.m. PST

Bangorstu:
Scottish Independence threatens to break up the United Kingdom, not the countries which are its component parts. That is why I did not include it in my comments above although I thought about it. The thread is after all about the Ukraine (er… sorry Geoff…Ukraine). Now if Snowdonia wanted secession from Wales or Cornwall wanted to leave England, that is what I was talking about. Being of Scottish decent I do not think that Scottish independence is breaking up a country,it is a nation leaving a kingdom it was forced to join at bayonet point. I should point out that enclosure, transportation and intolerance aside, Scotland has benefited greatly from being in the UK and I think separation is unwise and a big mistake (apologies to Mr. Salmond and his ilk).
Perhaps BBC America sings a different tune than the domestic service you watch, but their reporting of events in Ukraine and around the world is often filtered through a pro-western lens. Also the pithy comments made by news presenters such as Katty Kaye (I hope I spelled her name right) at the end of each story are another source of stealth editorial insertion which slants the news.
There is trouble in at least five of the South Eastern provinces of Ukraine if you include Crimea and Odessa. Not two out of eight.
Noticing media bias is not indulging in conspiracy theories, its is simply critical thinking and taking what you hear, read and see with a grain of salt.
Finally, as I was typing in my comment above I was sitting in the lunch room and chatting with a Polish and a Romanian coworker and they were sharing their insights with me.
Cheers and thanks for the feedback.
Rod Robertson.

Rod I Robertson06 May 2014 1:37 p.m. PST

Geoff:
If Poland has such a bright future why are there American soldiers conducting joint exercises on the ground? The future is bright only if the the Ukraine Crisis stays contained and Russia and NATO do not do anything stupid. Otherwise Poland's future is anything but bright.
Cheers.
Rod Robertson.

GeoffQRF06 May 2014 1:43 p.m. PST

If Poland has such a bright future why are there American soldiers conducting joint exercises on the ground?

Perhaps because they are nervous about 40,000 Russian troops only a border away?

fleabeard06 May 2014 1:50 p.m. PST

Rod, I agree that media outlets, regardless of their geographical location, tend to push a certain line, but the examples you're giving are essentially non-issues. The likes of Cornish independence are discussed (see link for a bit of recent Northern/Western Isles independence hype) , but only as novelty items, as there really isn't any serious desire and any such debate would be, frankly, bizarre when there are many more serious issues to debate (like what the hell is happening to the NHS). That media in Quebec regularly discusses introducing Sharia Law is definitely news to me, but I can't help but wonder if it's to divert attention from more pressing matters. It'd certainly be the case here.

Rod I Robertson06 May 2014 1:52 p.m. PST

Geoff:
Yes, and that's the bitter irony of it. Western Ukraine's desire to share in European prosperity may end European prosperity.
Rod Robertson.

GeoffQRF06 May 2014 2:02 p.m. PST

Only if another nation forces that upon it. Should we deny their desire to seek a better life for fear of what someone else might do?

Rod I Robertson06 May 2014 2:03 p.m. PST

Fleabeard:
The issue in Quebec is to have a Quebecois Charter of values which bans any outward expression of religion among employees of the provincial government. The charter was a xenophobic reaction to the increasing diversity of the Quebec population and a poke in the eye to the Canadian policy of multiculturalism. You are correct in that it was also a cynical attempt to divert attention from a poor economy. At no time has anybody seriously considered Sharia Law for Quebec, although in neighboring Ontario there was a brief period when a vocal minority was demanding it.
What we in Quebec regularly discuss ad nauseum is the breaking up of Canada through Quebec independence. To be fair, Western Canadians also have a separatist movement and First Nations people want autonomy too so Quebecois are not alone.
Sorry if I confused you in my post above.
Rod Robertson.

Rod I Robertson06 May 2014 2:09 p.m. PST

Geoff:
Isn't that exactly what Europe opted for when confronted by President Wilson's expression of a right of self-determination for nations. Colonialism and Empire trumped good intentions then and new considerations may trump Ukraine's right to sovereignty and economic growth today. Life is cruel in a world where realpolitik rules. One should also consider that what is good for western Ukraine may be very bad for eastern Ukraine economically.
Rod Robertson

fleabeard06 May 2014 2:25 p.m. PST

Rod

Ah, I see! That makes sense – there are similar discussions ongoing in the UK, and duly milked by the press for all they're worth, and more.

I hesitate to defend British media as I frequently find the reporting simplistic, poorly-sourced, sensationalist and slanted…. but recent forays into the world of Russia Today lead me to concede that things could be much, much worse.

GeoffQRF06 May 2014 2:36 p.m. PST

One should also consider that what is good for western Ukraine may be very bad for eastern Ukraine economically

Indeed, which makes Russia's alleged fear over EU and/or NATO membership so ridiculous. The chances of Ukraine achieving the necessary border controls, and the cost of cleaning up eastern industry to EU standards, makes the whole thing so far beyond ridiculous and shows this not to be the true agenda.

Equally the whole 'Ukraine joining NATO would be a red line to Russia' – what does it have to do with Russia if Ukraine makes her own decision (despite conspiracy theories that it is not her decision)? It puts NATO on Russia's border? NATO has been there for the last 10 years without any problem.

There are different agendas afoot, and Ukraine is merely the piggy in the middle.

Jemima Fawr06 May 2014 6:20 p.m. PST

"If Poland has such a bright future why are there American soldiers conducting joint exercises on the ground?"

Those exercises that were announced in advance several years ago? Those exercises?

And are you suggesting that NATO allies should not train together?

Jemima Fawr06 May 2014 6:23 p.m. PST

"it is a nation leaving a kingdom it was forced to join at bayonet point. "

Ballhooks. What bayonets were used in 1707 exactly?

Jemima Fawr06 May 2014 6:31 p.m. PST

NATO has been on Russia's border ever since its inception, via Norway. Later joined by Turkey.

GeoffQRF06 May 2014 11:25 p.m. PST

I think Sweden and Finland come between Norway and Russia :-)

But troops training in Poland is no different, in geographical relation to the Russian border, than troops training in Norway, and they have been doing that for many years.

Bangorstu06 May 2014 11:51 p.m. PST

Geoff – not so, Norway goes across the top of the other two. They share a border near Murmansk.

GeoffQRF07 May 2014 2:00 a.m. PST

Do NATO run exercises on the border? ;-)

Jemima Fawr07 May 2014 3:14 a.m. PST

As Stu says – Norway and Russia share a border to the north of Finland. Turkey also shared a border with the USSR (now Georgia). So the argument about Ukraine joining NATO (if it were ever to be on the cards, which is by no means clear) somehow bringing NATO closer to Russia is utter horsefeathers.

GeoffQRF07 May 2014 3:21 a.m. PST

Presumably not to mention that (if they were ever so disposed to do so, which is equally ridiculous) the strike range of a B2 is just under 3500 miles (out and back) which means pretty much the whole of Europe and Asia is really not that far away from teh Russian border, more so now it [allegedly] extends to Crimea…

Rod I Robertson07 May 2014 4:59 a.m. PST

R. Mark:
IIRC the declaration of Martial Law in 1707 was used to quiet the Scottish population which was furious at the bribes and the bullying of leading Scots by both British and Pro-Union Scots. Then Scottish independence was subsumed into the Jacobite movement and the bloodshed which followed there.
Rod Robertson.

Barin107 May 2014 6:46 a.m. PST

Back to the city…our discussion is still running the same circles, and the coverage of Ukrainian crisis is still the same.
link
- nothing on civilian casualties of the operation
- nothing of pro-government paramilitaries taking part in fighting in the East
- replacing of Odessa governor had little to do with "re-establishing control over Odessa". He is just one of the most hated persons in the city for his open support of ultra fans and nationalists before and after fire in Trade Union house.

And you can hardly convince average Russian that NATO are happy bunnies meaning no harm to anybody…well, we're even called enemies again ;)
link

Just watch as soon as NATO start deploying its forces in Poland and Baltic states for Russian bombers and mid-range missiles in Crimea and Kaliningrad…Looks like world is heading full steam to new confrontation.

Ok, if Russia is entering the East of Ukraine we will apply more sanctions. No troops? But you don't accept president elections, and by doing that you're trying to undermine them! We still have sanctions for you, evil bear!

Funny thing is, that according to some recent "corrections" to election law, it doesn't matter how many people are actually voting. Even if half of the country is not voting, elections will be still considered legit….

GeoffQRF07 May 2014 7:13 a.m. PST

I see that Putin has requested the 11 May referendum be suspended: link

well, we're even called enemies again

Tht's Belfast for ya ;-)

as soon as NATO start deploying its forces in Poland and Baltic states

I'm not sure even paranoia can treat half a dozen F-15s as a serious deployment.

Even if half of the country is not voting, elections will be still considered legit…

Well it was in Crimea. ;-)

Rod I Robertson07 May 2014 7:24 a.m. PST

Barin1:
I believe that is called one vote by one man! Otherwise known as oligarchy at best or dictatorship at worst.
I think I understand what the official positions are on Ukraine and West but I am not confident I understand what average Russians feel about what is going on. I know that Putin's popularity is up and that Russian Nationalism is waxing. But what does the Russian on the street think?
Do average Russians still consider the Baltic States and Poland to be the "near-abroad" – the buffer zone between the Rodina and the West or is that an antiquated idea from Soviet times? Do Russians still consider Ukraine to be part of the near-abroad? What do average Russians make of the rapid westward expansion of NATO since the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of Jugoslavia? Is there a sense that Russia is being squeezed and penned in or do they just accept it as the changing politics of the West?
Do Russians see the West as an aggressive threat which is likely to attack them or do they see the West as weak – thus in a more pacifist light? What do they make of the simmering anger of ethnic Russian populations in the Baltic States, Ukraine, Moldova, etc. and do they really think that these Russian populations are being mistreated by the states in which they live?
Getting back to Ukraine specifically, do Russians view the elections coming up in Ukraine as legitimate (both the National ones to replace the provisional government in Kiev and the separatist ones for self-determination or annexation with Russia)?
Can you suggest a good source or sources for getting the Russian POV given that I do not read Cyrillic nor understand Russian.
Thanks in advance for any views you may wish to share.
Rod Robertson.

GeoffQRF07 May 2014 7:31 a.m. PST

Good questions

Barin107 May 2014 8:55 a.m. PST

Crimea had more than 50% of eligible citizens coming foe voting, and over 90% of them voted for joining Russia. I'm saying more than 50% to be on the safe side…
As for Ukraine, if the East will boycot the elections ( as far as I understand, they don't see any of the current candidates as their own, so not voting is the likeliest outcome- we can have less than 50% of electorate voting. Interesting, that some Ukrainian media considers the chances of Timoshenko (or Yanukovich) being behind Odessa tragedy, as Timoshenko will lose the elections for sure, and the only thing that can prevent the humiliation (and possible future court for corruption and bribing) is to move elections far away. Yanukovich might still consider carving himself a country from Donetsk…

Now, to Rod's questions.

Average Russian doesn't like Baltic states for joining NATO, glorifying local SS divisions and attacks on Russian language and monuments. I've been in these countries plenty of times, mostly in Lithuania. Probably the best relations are there, and I've only seen some hatred to me from very old lady selling some Legion symbolics when she heard me speaking Russian with a friend… the reality is a bit different to propaganda image, but you have to consider that new NATO members are often jumping higher and more eager than "old" members…

Poland is a bit different… we have a long and bloody history between our two countries. I remember my very first visit to Warsaw way back in 1995..and each one of my colleagues was sooner or later telling me of the events during Warsaw uprising, and how Russians were not crossing Vistula. Stalin wasn't happy with the leaders of the uprising, and they didn't really wanted Russians in Warsaw at first…and very few people remember 600000 Red Army soldiers, who died, fighting Germans in Poland, and Poles prefer not to talk about Western territories, given to Poland by the same Stalin, who took western Ukraine and Byelorussia from them…Poland also had several very anti-Russian leaders, who were often supporting even more anti-Russian figures, like Chechnya separatists, or infamous Saakashvili. All this doesn't prevent me from having many friends in Poland…and our Warhammer players are frequent visitors of Polish tourneys.

Ukraine is still not really considered as a fully independent state, I guess. Ukraine is often used as an example, what Russia could be, if not for great leadership of Putin :) Millions of Ukrainians, working in Russia are in a way acting as a confirmation of this.
When my father was at last stage of cancer, the nurse I've hired was from Kharkiv, another was from a village near Chernovtsy, and later, when he died, funeral agent and her driver, where also Ukrainians. Of course, they never pay any taxes here, but they were good in what they were doing. I'd say they had more freedom of press (some of our former opposition-aligned journalists moved there). Now they're switching off Russians channels and are trying to make their own propaganda machine, but they're not that experienced as Russia or USA ;)

NATO expansion is one of the most serious issues between the West and Russia. Doesn't prevent Russians from happily traveling around Europe and getting more business. Still, in its current state, NATO is not considered as a friendly neighbor – I'm very well aware that the same applies to Russia ;)

Gorbachev considers the expansion as strongest blow to his trust of western partners. He is never going to forget the broken promises…and he is of course more pro-West than most of our politicians.

General feeling is that as long as we have a nuclear deterrent, we're safe from next war. Europe is generally considered to be more reasonable than USA. Popular idea is that the country with high living standard will hardly risk a shooting war that might turn nuclear. I understand, that Russia can hardly withstand another cold war, but the propaganda works, and even complete isolationism might get support in the population if played right.

Russian minorities in some of the FSU countries are often kicked in various ways by local authorities, but it might take some time to convince average Russian that moving a monument calls for military action. the threat of Russian bear at the gate claimed by Baltic states or Moldova is normally making people smiling…

As for Ukrainian elections…in accordance to election law president's elections are legal. general opinion of the interim government is low, and state media is helping forming the opinion that they hate the East and scheming too much.
For last two weeks the state media rarely voices ideas of partitioning of Ukraine. The fact, that the referendum in Donetsk republic is illegal in accordance with Ukrainian constitution is clear, however it is considered to be local affair, where citizens should be able to voice their wishes.
Today Putin even proposed to move the referendum if any talks would be held between Kiev and East…
Again, a lot of people who know the state of business in the East, understand that Russia doesn't really need the reion. many people still remember Soviet times when the mines worked, metallurgical plants were famous in the country, and the east was considered to be necessary for the Soviet Union…

More or less official media viewpoint will be Russia Today,

then we have Moscow Times, a joint venture with International Herald Tribune, so it has better knowledge of things Russian , but might not always express Russian POV.
themoscowtimes.com

english.pravda.ru is another place to check Russian POV.

GeoffQRF07 May 2014 9:47 a.m. PST

I think the problem with that is that, unlike Crimea (where nearly 40% of the population refused a vote that essentially offered them joining Russia or reverting to an earlier situation where they were almost part of Russia) there are not more than 50% of the population in those eastern regions. The issue then becomes how to get the losing minority to accept the outcome.

Timoshenko has almost no chance, but I suspect her alleged involvement relates back to her earlier intercepted phone communications.

Nothing to stop eastern regions putting forth their own candidate of course, and then voting for them…?

Barin107 May 2014 10:38 a.m. PST

Well, the fate of such candidate was reported…
link
And now communists and Party of Regions parliament members have some problems in Rada, too…
link

GeoffQRF07 May 2014 11:00 a.m. PST

Not sure he was ever a serious candidate…

(which is not to in any way condone the behaviour he received, but with 1% of the vote, less even than Timoshenko, he was unlikely to ever be a serious candidate and complaints that eastern views were under represented would remain)

Rod I Robertson07 May 2014 11:38 a.m. PST

Barin1:
Thank you for the background information you delivered in your post above. Very interesting and it largely confirms what I suspected was the sentiments of Russians. I have a couple of questions as a follow up.
Was it a mistake for Ukraine to give up its nuclear weapons in 1994 and how did Russians view a nuclear Ukraine next-door prior to 1994? If the Ukrainians decided to try to rearm themselves with nuclear weapons, how would Russia perceive this and would Russia react vigorously to such a move? Do Russians see this (nuclear rearmament) as a potential long-term outcome of the present Ukraine Crisis should Ukraine survive the present troubles as a sovereign state? This is just an hypothetical question, as I am not even sure that Ukraine has retained the military and engineering expertise to build and maintain nuclear weapons today. It does however worry me that the Ukraine experience will teach smaller countries that the only way to protect your sovereignty is to go nuclear.
What direction do you see Russia looking towards and possibly moving towards if its relations with the West continue to sour? Will Russia try to forge more powerful relations with China, India and central Asian states or do you see room for a rapprochement with the West sometime down the road? Do you see a way that Ukraine, Russia and the West can disengage from the destructive path they are all on and come to a compromise which all can live with? Any ideas on what the compromise might be?
Rod Robertson

GeoffQRF07 May 2014 11:44 a.m. PST

Russia is already trying to strengthen it's Asian market, presumably against what it now views as a more hostile western view which, due to the constant threat of "we will turn off the gas" is looking to diversify it's supply. In the same way, Russia is looking to diversify it's dependence on one major client.

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