"The partition of Ukraine..." Topic

Ukraine separatists push east as US intercepts Moscow orders

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Uesugi – I agree that NATO should be very concerned. A recent US public poll has the majority against any military aid to Ukraine.

It will be an interesting next couple of months there.

Anytime the US admins say they have proof of anything you need to take it with a grain of salt. They've been lying for years to convince the public they're right and they will keep doing it. Garbage like that can be reproduced. The only thing they are concerned about is getting enough press to hide the fact they are just as bad by blaming others.

I really do hope the Russians don't back down.

I guess I should make a special "Ukraine crisis humour" thread…though situation is not especially funny, as Turchinov acknowledged that Kiev lost control over Donbass region.
However…this video is making fun of the kind of proof we're seeing on TV at the moment. Aimed at Kiev, but we have seen some stuff of similar stupidity from Russian side too.
YouTube link
don't forget to switch on English captions…

Barin, There is in fact, much deception on all involved sides regarding this situation.

Hope it doesn't devastate the area. Hope there aren't further casualties. Hope you and I stay far from it and any fall out from it.

Griveton, hard to believe any of them much anymore…as to your Russia comment – not sure if I'd want any bloodshed over it…

The Uruguay? The Uganda? ;-)

Barin, great video.

Nobody wants anything to get any worse, but Kyiv is being criticised for not doing enough while under threat of invasion (despite assurances that they won't invade… unless undefined interests are threatened in which case they might) if they do something, which seems a bit unreasonable. If this is an internal Ukrainian problem then let them get on with it.

Much like in Crimea, any referendum undertaken behind closed doors and controlled by unknown gunmen must surely be viewed with suspicion, and I doubt that anywhere west of Kyiv will view it as legitimate.

"There is in fact, much deception on all involved sides regarding this situation."

Really? What deception do you think the Ukrainian government is undertaking? Undermining Russia by instigating armed unrest in Moscow, perhaps, with an eye towards intervening as soon as Russian authorities can be shown to have lost control of the situation?

"Ukraine, not the Ukraine. Its not the Mexico, the Russia or the Germany…"

Historically, it's The Ukraine. Since independence, they want it without the article, so they get it that way. Like the Chinese prefer Beijing over Peking.

According to several authoritative sources, such as the CIA World Factbook, the Times Comprehensive Atlas of the World and the US Department of State, only two countries, The Bahamas and The Gambia, should officially be referred to with the article. :-)

By 'both sides' I think he means Russia and the 'west' (US and EU/NATO). There is a lot of 'proof', but with modern day counterfeiting being so relatively easy it's difficult to know who to believe. There does seem to be a question that Putin's request for intervention was approved on the basis of footage showing riots in Simferapol, which we know to have actually been footage from Kyiv, making the whole thing questionable. How a burnt out car can conveniently turn up an unburnt Right Sector business card and crisp dollar bills, and Putin's admission that there were Russian troops active in Crimea, does nothing to help credibility. However Kyivs 'proof' of Russian special forces was dubious at best, some fuzzy photos of people more likely to have been retired out (but could well have served in the Soviet army pre 1991). Not one has actually been detained to make a case beyond irrefutable doubt. While suspicions of intervention (whether covert direct, or covert indirect via paid 'rent a crowd') remain high, the lack of real hard evidence makes them look a bit desperate.

However nobody has dared answer my question about what the Russian response would be if armed ethnic Ukrainians living in Belgorod took over government buildings there. Probably because we all know the answer.

Looks like Putin's plan, and troops are following the Crimean/Georgian playbook.

Some disturbing news this morning…looks like Ukrainian troops started another attack on Slavyansk. 20 attack and transport helicopters, BTRs, contractors and conscripts, national guard, special forces. Kiev reports 9 blockposts captured, locals confirm 1, though it is an important one – TV tower that is a vantage point above the city. Two MI-24 helicopters were downed (some reports on the 3d. too) still not clear on the casualties. Initial figures are surprisingly low for an operation of such scale. Even more disturbing is another mobilization attempt in Ukraine with the promises of handling weapons and military equipment to Right Sector. Probably Kiev can not be sure in the troops, but the East will never lay down the weapons as long as Right Sector has them…

BBC this morning reporting that both sides are saying an operation is in place…

Ukraine's interior minister said one helicopter pilot had been killed and other people wounded by anti-aircraft missile fire from pro-Russian rebels.

Russia's state-run Rossiya 24 TV channel earlier said the city was being "stormed".

However, separatists at three Sloviansk checkpoints have told the BBC there is no fighting in their sector.

Maybe it's just localised somewhere?

Has the promise actually been "to arm the Right Sector", or merely to declare conscription?

Conscription (national service), which was cancelled under the Yanukovich government, has been reinstated, which is not quite the same thing.

But I agree that the government has to be seen to disarm ALL unofficial groups on both sides, which is tricky in a country where gun ownership is permitted, although there is perhaps a difference between owning a hunting rifle, and a Manpad or assault rifle?

Honest Guv my Manpad is for the Duck hunting season only!

If these 'locals' can shoot down helicopter, one shudders to think what is sold in the local Army surplus stores….

From the videos I've seen one MI-24 was clearly downed by manpad, another probably by RPG and machine gun fire – was flying too close to block-post.
As for Right Sector, they're invited to join National Guard so they can get the right weapons for the job.
BTW, even at the videos/photos by western media it is seen that many of Slavyansk defenders are using hunting rifles, even as far as I understand, they have plenty of stuff in the mine…I guess they trust their own weapons more.
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Interesting that both BBC and guardian pages on Ukrainian crisis open with "rebels shot down two helicopters"…

It may be questionable whether either of them should have been shot down by manpad in the hands of protesting civilians… Which bit is interesting? The definition of rebels?

My concern would not be that many are using hunting rifles, so much as how many military grade weapons are in use.

I would hope that the more extreme Right Sector individuals would be filtered out (this is conscription, not drafting), but that strict legal constraints would still be in place to avoid abuse of position, either from external monitoring or internal investigation and full prosecution

More details on the events of today

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looks like Pro Russians are now to be regarded as Rebels.

Hopefully Russia will limit its actions to UN protests at present

Russia has called for UN intervention. Is that in Crimea too?

The Geoff:
The use of the definite article before Ukraine is perhaps an indication of how a writer views that nation. If Ukraine is and should remain a sovereign state then no definite article is required. If, however, the writer considers the Ukraine to be a region or part of a wider entity (ie. the USSR or the CIS) then the article seems appropriate. States rise and fall and at times old labels stick and don't keep up with the times (or more ominously such labels may predict future times returning to the past).
The Robertson.

kabrank:
Here's a question for all. Can one be a "rebel" if one rebels against 'rebels'. There is no legitimate power in Ukraine/ the Ukraine right now, so such labels as 'rebel' or 'loyalist' are meaningless and really just reflect one's bias either way. Please don't think I am calling you bias for I am not. You are just reporting what has been said. We are all awash in propaganda and it is difficult to maintain objectivity in such circumstances. It is the attachment of such labels to fellow countrymen which hardens the hearts and blinds folk, making negotiation and peaceful compromise that much harder. If Ukrainians are to save their country and live in harmony together they must abandon such labels whenever possible and see the people they oppose as no different from themselves.
Rod Robertson

Very well put 'the Robertson'

The William.

That would make sense. If the nations using 'the' were those that didn't recognise Ukraine independently but saw it as part of the CIS. And as there is no definite/indefinite article in Russian anyway…

Well looks like we have a "shot'n war" Boys …

Still nothing is clear with military operations in Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. Looks like despite of claims that half of Slavyansk is captured it is not so, as locals returned control of several blockposts. On the other hand, there are some Ukrainian forces within the city, as the building of locals command is under sniper fire.
The bloody accident in Odessa has got a typical coverage from both sides of the conflict. Again, both BBC and Guardian published a photo of pro-Russian fighter with a gun, and in the reports the building where over 30 pro-Russian activists perished has somehow "caught fire", while Right Sector was making "desperate attempts to save people".
With all due respect probably it is time to call arsonist an arsonist…The tragedy could be prevented if local police and fire squads were actually doing something, but it wasn't the case…and more people died than in military operation in the East. And the victims just fuel the hatred…

In most of these areas local police have come under attack and have stopped working

Apparently both sides were throwing petrol bombs.

Why can't Ukraine become an officially bilingual and bi-cultural society in which neighbours of different language groups coexist and celebrate each other?

Dr Putnam's decade long study found that more diversity in communities is associated with less trust both between and within groups.

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Really? What deception do you think the Ukrainian government is undertaking? Undermining Russia by instigating armed unrest in Moscow, perhaps, with an eye towards intervening as soon as Russian authorities can be shown to have lost control of the situation?

The Nuland tape revealed that the US had spent/printed $5 USD billion to overthrow the elected government of Ukraine. What is the legitimacy of the current Ukraine government?

'Russia, accused by the West of being behind the unrest, says it "no longer has any influence" over the separatists.

President Vladimir Putin's spokesman in Moscow, Dmitry Peskov, said: "From now on Russia essentially has lost its influence over these people because it will be impossible to convince them to lay down arms when there's a direct threat to their lives."'

I thought Russia said it didn't have any influence? Is there not only a threat where they are in armed opposition?

"What is the legitimacy of the current Ukraine government?"

Good question.

Technically, they are an interim government holding positions until the elections on 25 May, but there appears to be a second agenda to create insurrection and undermine these efforts before they can take place, which would seem to be forcing them to make more urgent steps to try and retain stability.

Remember that the parliament (Rada) itself has not changed: link

The interim government has no legitimacy. (Oleksandr Turchynov now commands the Ukrainian armed forces.) It was installed by the US – in Russia's back yard. I'm not saying this set of oligarchs are worse than the last lot for the people of Ukraine. With money and the media you can buy an election in a democracy. If the US comes up with the cash Tymoshenko will be the next Prime Minister.

There is an expression to the effect that you should either poop or get off the pot. This is where the US, and the west in general, are in trouble. A poll mentioned earlier in this thread showed that US citizens are sick of intervention – for any reason – in foreign conflicts. That seems to be the general feeling across the west.

If the west does nothing, it looks weak and that opens a can of worms around the globe. On the other hand it would be easy to take a misstep if action was contemplated. It would have been better not to have undermined the Ukraine government in the first place. It is a shame there won't be any repercussions for those responsible.

Another horrible consequence of this affair is that the US dollar is further undermined, with more countries seeking trade in other currencies. A 2008 style crash would be bad news for everyone in the west. Imagine what a run on the dollar would be like.

So what would have been the likely position without the current disturbances? All implications indicate a passive stance pending declared elections on May 25th.

Are you asking what would have happened if there had been no coup?

BTW, the wiki leaks cables on Ukranian politicians make for interesting reading. What a tangled web. When you look into the background of recent politicians they are all shifty characters.

What coup?

Parliament passed a no-confidence motion in the previous PM and he left office. It's how parliaments work.

The interim government has no legitimacy

Hmmm, that would involve an incredibly narrow definition of "legitimacy". The Ukrainian president went missing, then turned up in a neighbouring state demanding that state invade his country to get him his job back. The Ukrainian parliament hadn't been left with much choice than form an interim government. Whilst I have no doubt the US, EU and Russia have been meddling in Ukrainian politics for some time, I've equally no doubt the Ukrainian government is playing the hand it's been dealt. It's no less legitimate than many other world governments, and considerably moreso than, for example, the current government of Egypt.

Bangorstu, yanukovich was not a pm, he was a president.parliament tried impeachment a couple of times, but not during maidan. Therefore, parliament could have it in legal way but they were too busy saving their..err..political carriers.
Geoff, now there is more information and videos from odessa – right sector using firetrucks to attack riot police, who were trying to separate the fighters. Also,plenty of footage of right sector shooting and beating people,leaving the building. And- surprise- no weapons were found in burnt
Building, according to local police. I.m afraid that western media failed the test, becoming just another side in propaganda war.

Russia contends that the ejection of Yanukovych was unconstitutional. They don't recognise the interim government.

Russia won't live with a belligerent neighbor. Have you looked at the background of some of the players in the interim government and candidates for President? For that matter, look at those in the US government who are most active in the Ukraine crisis. Carl Bernstein gave the game away on MSNBC in relation to the Iraq war. You can find the clip on youtube. I won't mention the details here.

Topical cartoon

Chortle, what Russia does and doesn't think is of no more relevance than what the EU does or doesn't think. Sharing a border with a country shouldn't confer special rights to decide its future. It's sometimes disturbing how little the world has changed in the last 200 years & more. Neither are the backgrounds of the Russian politicians involving themselves in Ukraine anything to be proud of.

Essentially, the Ukrainian people are victims of global power politics.

Whether it wa sunconstitutional or not is not Russia's call.

And Ukraine isn't being belligerent. Had it been belligerent, sevastopol port would be a smoking ruin.

The people in power in Ukraine are certainly no worse than those in power in Russia.

The Ukrainians also haven't got a track record of murdering journalists,fixing elections or suppressing freedom of speech.

Or of interfering in neighbouring countries and stealing territory.

Incidentally, it's great there's no rule against discussing politics here ;)

Curious what made them identifiable as Right Sector (other than other people or media saying they were).

Building caught fire as both sides were throwing petrol bombs. It could likely ad been one dropped inside as one thrown inside.

Yanukovich abandoned the post. Not sure, but think it unlikely there is much precedent for successfully running a country while hiding on a neighbouring country that is threatening (by size, proximity and presence, if not actually words) to invade.

No Chortle. I was asking what would have happened if Russia hadn't seized Crimea and armed protests hadn't seized buildings in the east, instead waiting for the declared elections in May and diplomatic and political pressure had been used to ensure that voting was fair and truly representative of both east and west.

Though I am by no means pro-US, that's one of the stupidest cartoons I've seen in a long while. The US is the cause of all the bloodshed? – the heroic Russians are saving Ukraine from bloodshed by potentially taking over half the country? – pleassssse. Looks like something from the good old Nazi school of cartoonery (and indeed I suspect that the Germans probably had very similar cartoons blaming the US/UK and Jewish people)

It's not very topical any more- it first appeared in about January

Russia contends that the ejection of Yanukovych was unconstitutional. They don't recognise the interim government.

The Crimean referendum was unconstitutional, so they are only paying lip service to that concept. They recognise the government, but not the President.

Geoff, I contended you can buy an election in a democracy with money and the media behind you. Politics is a continuation of war by other means.

Over here in Bangladesh elections are preceded by months of violence because the ruling party wants to control polls and the party out of office want their chance to stuff ballot boxes. The party in power controls the press and the police. It is like a game of Junta played on a 1:1 map. Even if the election is fair the population only gets to choose between two groups of criminals. Once a group seizes power they get to make appointments and plunder the nation for a term. The losers can protest the election result till they are blue in the face. Politics is a shell game.

"The Crimean referendum was unconstitutional, so they are only paying lip service to that concept. They recognise the government, but not the President."

Doesn't the west do such things when it suits? What is important at this point is who controls the army and gets to make appointments. That is the unelected interim President.

We expect Argentina to accept the Falkland islands referendum which expressed the population's desire to stay British. (not saying that referendum was unconstitutional)

"The US is the cause of all the bloodshed?"

US foreign policy isn't determined by, or on behalf, of the American citizen. A recent study by Princeton determined that the US is an oligarchy, serving special interests. A relatively small group of people can "lever" policy if they work together. Team work!

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Victoria Nuland is married to Robert Kagan who is a co-founder of the project for a new American century. PNAC played a big role in the decision to invade Iraq. How did that turn out for the US? They are otherwise controversial.

"And advanced forms of biological warfare that can "target" specific genotypes may transform biological warfare from the realm of terror to a politically useful tool."

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I agree and suspect that elections in the past have been directed much like that. There are already accusations of Timoshenko paying students and homeless to vote for her. Not only are there dubious election methods, and underlying business interests, but also underworld elements manipulating (ot st least attempting to) the situation to their best advantage…. same as everywhere, I suppose.

I doubt any of the current actions would be taking place if the country had been allowed to move towards the declared election date without interference. Tensions between east and west Ukraine were always there, but Russia's pressure through Crimea (which seems to have been based on false footage of riots in Simferapol, which was actually footage from a month earlier in Kyiv) helped push the situation another step over.

I don't believe the current interim government came in with the intention of taking control of the army to suppress ethnic Russians across Ukraine, but has been forced to act to try and control an increasingly violent level of insurrection. The current top level government are sacrificial, and I believe now know it. They have 3 weeks to establish a stable election platform, and very little chance of retaining their positions.

[Quote]""GNREP8 03 May 2014 1:40 p.m. PST
Though I am by no means pro-US, that's one of the stupidest cartoons I've seen in a long while. The US is the cause of all the bloodshed? – the heroic Russians are saving Ukraine from bloodshed by potentially taking over half the country? – pleassssse. Looks like something from the good old Nazi school of cartoonery (and indeed I suspect that the Germans probably had very similar cartoons blaming the US/UK and Jewish people)…"" [Quote] Yes, we know you are not particularly pro-US, but that is a dumb cartoon … and "surprisingly" I agree with much of what you posted …

[Quote] ""Chortle – US foreign policy isn't determined by, or on behalf, of the American citizen. A recent study by Princeton determined that the US is an oligarchy, serving special interests. A relatively small group of people can "lever" policy if they work together. Team work!"" [Quote] Yes … we know … but we "TRY" to fix that every 4 years …

"We expect Argentina to accept the Falkland islands referendum which expressed the population's desire to stay British. (not saying that referendum was unconstitutional)"

The Falklands referendum was created by the Falklanders for the Falklanders, took several months to prepare and was overseen by international observers.

The Crimean referendum was created by the Russians for the Crimeans, took just a few days to prepare and international oversight was actively prevented.

The two events are not remotely similar beyond the over-used phrase 'self-determination'.

A recent study by Princeton determined that the US is an oligarchy, serving special interests
----------------
that makes it sound like a piece of scientifically irrefutable research as opposed to a subjective opinion, just like I'm sure studies by wacko loony group no. 5 or whatever determine that the US and UN today are run by the ZOG receiving daily orders from Tel Aviv.

From the BBC website re the incidents in Odessa:
'The clashes underscored the passivity – and possible disloyalty – of Ukraine's police forces, who stood by and watched the mayhem unfold, and, if video footage is to be believed, provided cover for pro-Russian protesters shooting at, and killing, pro-Ukrainians.'

Its an interesting (and fairly fundamental) problem if the state cannot rely on a fair chunk of its forces even in a city that population wise is I think 2/3rds+ Ukrainian and 1/3 ethnic Russian- the last thing the West etc would want would be to see it having to rely on Right Sector tainted recruits etc. Perhaps Geoff at QRF etc can advise on what they know – my impression would be the ethnic Russians are pretty heavily represented in the police and perhaps less so (but still in significant numbers) in the armed forces in a lot of former Soviet republics

Can't remember where it was the other day, but when the building was seized the police response was "how can we possibly deal with that?"

Problem is that law enforcement are being severely outnumbered, and in some cases set upon, so seem to have have simply decided not to put up more than a reasonable level of opposition, but are stepping back in the face of extreme threat.

On the whole, however, law enforcement does seem to have remained loyal to the parliament, but are ineffective. It my be debatable whether that ineffectiveness is by design, or simply that they cannot cope (and are not willing to face excessive violence).

Odessa seems to have started as a peaceful unity march by two football teams, one local one from Kharkiv. They were allegedly set upon by sizeable numbers of pro-Russians. Several thousand fans then set upon about 300 pro-Russians in their tent camp, causing them to retreat inside the TU building, which caught fire. Difficult to say what started it, as both sides were throwing molotovs, but it does appear to have been accidental rather than deliberate – one report says someone inside tried to throw a molotov through a closed window, which broke inside the building. Most of the deaths were people caught inside or who fell trying to escape.

The police and other services have been highly criticised for failing to assist when the fire took hold, which doesn't make sense if police were pro-Russian as they would surely have been trying to assist. Both sides appear to have helped people escape, although there alleged cases of some attacking people as they escaped. In most cases these are hearsay reports (on all sides). However the deaths do appear to have been predominantly due to an accidental fire, rather than targeted action.