"The partition of Ukraine..." Topic

If confirmed, this is more bad news for Ukraine. And very Stalinist of Putin:
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Ukrainian nationalists have their Molotov cocktails, and apparently Putin has his own Molotov too. Alas for poor Vladimir, Poland lacks a Ribbentrop.
History certainly does rhyme!
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To repeat history we need the Western Powers to come in, give Hitler …err… Putin the eastern half of the Ukraine. After all it is filled with ethnic Germans …err… Russians aching to be re-joined with the Motherland.

I don't believe that Foreign Minister of any nation would be that unguarded in a an interview with a journalist.

The proposal was made by political clown Zhirinovskiy, who also was suggesting to "wash the boots of Russian soldiers in Indian Ocean", and other valid proposals. Granted, he IS deputy speaker of Duma but he is still a scarecrow without political weight.
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Hungarian radicals were also suggesting partition of Ukraine on PASE session…and in Poland local radicals have their own dreams…
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Barin

How is seen the crisis in Russia? Most of the info I get is from Western news, which in their majority have adopted a very anti-Russian stance. It would be interesting to know the point of view from the "other side of the hill".

Thanks!

Some advice to Putin, courtesy of Duffelblog :)

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I saw a recent casey research video which stated that Putin was negotiating with China to dump the dollar, crashing the US economy, back in 2008 when the financial crisis hit. The US treasury headed them off at the pass by dumping $700 USD billion into the banking system. Putin could try again and insist the EU settles gas bills in gold. How is that for a cold war scenario?

Not sure what you mean by dumping the dollar?

And if Putin demands that his gas is paid for in gold, he's going to find that he suddenly can't sell any more gas.

And the Russian economy screeches to a halt.

I mean sell treasuries. I hope you understand I am only outlining a possible scenario for the cold war mark II.

Basileus66, generally you have state media – main 4 TV channels, and 2 main Radio channels doing exactly opposite coverage to the Western media – I.e.pointing failures and inconsistencies of another side, Kiev authorities and their western backers, pointing involvement of CIA\western diplomats, etc. while being sympathetic to pro-Russian, or federalist formations. It's a propaganda fight like in cold war times.
Official position – Russia still not accepting current Kiev government as legal, due to breaking of 21/02/2014 agreement, brokered by Russia/EU/Usa, doesn't support Yanukovich, and mot really willing to be involved in shootout in the East. Russia is still trying to make the life of Kiev government harder, and it has plenty of legal possibilities to do that – credits, Ukrainian debts for gas, etc. Russian business oriented media ( a couple of TV channels, some FM stations & internet sites) are reporting facts without much of emotions and generally give broader picture. Putin has one of the highest support ratings he ever had at the moment. Russians historically don't trust their authorities, but they absolutely hate if some foreigners are trying to dictate what the country should or shouldn't do. Isolation tendencies, as well as general reorienting on Asian market works very fast – many companies, starting from giants like Gazprom or Rosneft and ending with food chains.
I don't especially fond of this, however my personal opinion is that Ukrainian East should receive increased language, tax, and election rights and stay in Uktaine. If Kiev will be using tanks and aviation against Donbass it will be no different from first Chechnya war…

So does that make an official armed Russian intervention in the east likely?

Crimea, frankly there it's very grey – independent country within independent country, only recently attached more for administrative reasons, basically both sides have a point. Russian intervention and subsequent actions can be considered, from a neutral point of view, as being reasonable – though not the 'unofficial' use Russian soldiers.

Ukraine proper… very dangerous, very close to home and the West will have to make vigorous response. Best response? well, at the moment Russia is very fragile. The US could pump money into Ukraine, massively increase subsidised fuel to European countries – including Ukraine – that use Russian oil, and announce an increase in military expenditure on Europe. Actually, this may be better done by subsidising military expenditure by Russia's neighbours rather than directly increasing US assets in Europe – though an extra division or so returning to Germany might have an impact, as would returning a couple of squadrons…

Result? Russia loses income so finds it harder to afford military expenditure at the same time as there is a perceived need to increase military expenditure. Realistically, Russia has the choice of following the Soviet Union – collapsing under the weight of military expenditure – backing down or actually following the route that it has set it will do – ie, stabilise rather than destabilise the region.

What the West needs to stand firm on, and that Russia needs to understand, is that things have changed in the last 25 years. Chechnya was well within the Russian sphere of influence and seemed far away. Ukraine borders the West so Russia intervening there will be seen as a direct threat. If Russia continues as they are at the moment, they are potentially changing the whole military and economic balance of the region.

Dangerous times – Russian adventurism is backing the West into a corner.

Right now Russia is within an ace of having her economy trashed by sanctions – the rouble is nearly at junk status – so I doubt much will happen.

Putin is getting a lesson in how effective soft pwoer can be.

I'd completely forgotten about Mad Vlad Zirinovsky! He gave us lots of laughs in the 1990s….

I think it's because of his desire to return Russia to her pre 1918 borders that Finland bought nearly every tank the East German army had when it disbanded…

I agree that Russia may have a point over the way Crimea was originally assigned, but assigned it was, then ratified by Russia, then confirmed again. The way that it was transferred back recently, with a closed referendum and independent observers effectively banned while under the control of unknown but evidently military trained and equipped personnel would tend to make that grey lean rather one side of neutral.

Russia is trying to assert that this is no different than what happened in Maydan, but it us very different – there were no armed groups such as we are seeing now seizing government buildings. There may have been small self-styled vigilante groups, but they were very much the usual anarchic groups that seem magnetically drawn to scenarios like this, and very much in the minority. Weapons only really appeared after Yanukovich pushed in the Berkut (seemingly to clear the central square as it was interfering with his loans to install the Christmas tree), but creating a law banning protests was never going to end well. The parliament resigned and he fled the post, creating the power vacuum that saw a popular people's protest take over. This was not a military takeover. Even once the Berkut broke out automatic weapons and majority of armed response were scattered small arms (and for those in countries where firearms are not common that may seem unusual, but imagine how many firearms would appear in the hands of civilians in somewhere like Texas) and air rifles. Nothing like the quality of firepower (modern AK assault rifles, not Cold War issue, modern SAWs, even RPGS, carried by units in very consistent and regular uniforms with no insignia, not even a self-styled Donbass local defence badge or ribbon…) that is being seen in Donbass now.

The oft promoted issue is the banning of Russian language. This is a red herring, Russian was not banned (although some more radical right wing groups, as usual, might prefer it that way). However the restoration of an earlier constitutional position, reducing the sole rights of the President, also removed his introduction of Russian as an official language on government documents. That's a bit like Britain living in France insisting on English on French official papers (which would make them more accessible to many minority groups living there).

That said, there are a lot of Russian speakers, and that does need to be acknowledged… something that has already been agreed and would be difficult to go back on now if they want external backing, and yet these groups are not disbanding.

The current governments position may be more grey. They are, quite correctly, an interim government pending full elections on 25 May and as such should only hold limited powers to retain the daily function pending elections. Such elections do require independent observation to ensure they are fair and consider both east and west Ukrainians (even the Russian speakers are technically Ukrainian citizens). However the swift annexation of Crimea and subsequent military and economic pressure has forced them to act faster than I'm sure they would like – technically they should not be able to agree to bind the country into anything until legitimately elected, after May, but they have been forced to act to attempt to stabilise and unify the country. It may be questionable whether they have the authority to negotiate things like IMF funding at this stage.

Annexation of places like Crimea and calls for 'our own referendum on May 11' do nothing to help stabilise the situation. Russia should be encouraging free democratic elections on 25 May and ensuring that eastern Ukrainian people are duly included and considered, while restraining the more radical right wing elements, and helping promote stability rather than forcing the interim government into taking actions and signing agreements that could appear to be beyond their constitutional authority, but necessary due to other pressures. Its almost as if they are trying to set up the interim government into a no-win position, where they can be attacked for failing to act. And at the same time for acting.

Ukraine west is saying life continues pretty much as normal. Same in Kyiv. Kharkiv is a lot more dangerous, with pro-Russians directly antagonising the army. So far the army has been very restrained and not reacted, but one idiot with a molotov could spark something worse. If anything, the most vulnerable group at this time are ethnic Ukrainians living in eastern Ukraine, and it would be interesting to see what would happen if they started to request western intervention in the same way that the pro-Russian minorities (and they are minorities) and requesting Russian peacekeepers.

Russia's economy has been shaky for a while, but I do think they has underestimated the psyche of both the US and EU in thinking they will simply walk away. As stated above, the west is being backed into a corner whereby they cannot not act, and with the next level of sanctions now scheduled for Monday, Russia may find the cost in the long term to be very expensive. Ditching the dollar as a trading currency would be a disaster; like it or not, it is the main trading currency globally. It would simply reduce Russia's ability to trade anywhere, so the west should probably call their bluff on it.

Economically, this will have global repercussions, and Europe in particular may need to be prepared to pull in their belts a little to weather it, but long term I can't see how this can play out well for Russia. Its a bit like those classic Cold War scenarios, where Russia steamrollers the western lines for the first 48 hours, but then grinds to a quagmire and gets messy. Only this one is (so far) bring played without the tanks.

"while under the control of unknown but evidently military trained and equipped personnel"

Not exactly bravely going out on a limb here, are we?

It would be very interesting to be a fly on the wall in the boardrooms of Gazprom or Rosneft. I suspect that Russian businesses will soon be exerting some pressure of their own on their government.

Can you definitely prove they are anything else Tuscaloosa?

Yep GM, I suspect that the 'soft approach' is deliberately intended to put pressure on the money behind the politics, rather than the politics itself. Politicians tend to think differently when those who put them there start complaining.

Think . Hope .

What does Russia actually need to import from the west which can't be sourced elsewhere?

Russia and China have an agreement for currency swaps. Russia has a barter deal with Iran. Russia has bilateral trade deals with most of the former republics and India, Korea and other nations.

Worldwide trade is mainly in US dollars. That creates an external demand for US dollars which has allowed the US to build up an enormous debt.

The USD only has a value so long as people are prepared to accept it. For the most part, countries have no alternative. By punishing countries with sanctions the US causes them to look for alternatives to the US dollar. Countries also look for alternatives as the US looks more shaky. The Chinese Yuan overtook the Euro as the second most traded currency for trade finance in October 2013.

The US holds a gun to Russia's head. But the Russians buy the bullets. Saying "Niet" will be painful for a few years. But it can also create employment in Russia by repatriating jobs (effectively) from western imports. There is also an advantage is jumping off the USD cart before the wheels come off.

Recent crises have made the US look weak. That must be making allies nervous.

Geoff, there's always action and counteraction, and once it's started, it is extremely difficult to stop.

It is interesting, that the phase that ousted Yanukovich started after 21/02 agreement, when all of Maidan activists, including those, that were torching riot police got amnesty. In Donbass, first, there was only a promise, and I still don't quite get, if there was an amnesty decree after Geneva. Also, all officials of self-proclaimed Donetsk republic are having court actions against them, therefore, same as in Crimea, the text of referendum question changed to practically "get the hell out of Ukraine in any case"…

On a plus side for Donbass protesters I can say that they have not emptied military storages that they have captured – unlike Right Sector, that captured dozens of thousands of small arms even by Turchinov and Avakov assumptions and they have ignored the decree to return the weapons – same as in Donetsk.

I can not verify it yet, but there were reports of Ukrainian military mining roads to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk..

Russia is getting angry messages from Europe that it should ensure uninterrupted gas supplies to Europe through the territory of heavily indebted Ukraine, on the other habd Ukraine practically stopped water supply to Crimea, now claiming that there're some financial questions.

Now, if we'll be picking the facts from one side and ignoring another side we're getting two completely different pictures…Like this infamous hoax about Jewish citizens in Donetsk, when the hoax itself was on front pages, and the information from local rabbi that it was a provocation was getting very small letters, if any ;)

Difficult to say when the molotovs started. Was it before or after police action to remove them?

Not seen any confirmation of Right Sector emptying military storage. Certainly there is very little evidence of military grade weaponry in the hands of anyone other than the military, outside of Donbass.

We know from first hand (personal friends working in the industry) reports in the energy sector that Russia decreased supplies some time ago. With Crimea changing hands, it would appear that any contracted agreement to supply water would automatically be subject to renegotiation (same as if a company changed hands), so I find that less surprising, and with Russia refusing to deal with the current interim government there is no one for them to negotiate with.

The Jewish thing was clearly an attempt to stir up racial hatred. Difficult to know who was behind it, but probably a small unsanctioned group.

Hitler …err… Putin (…) After all it is filled with ethnic Germans …err… Russians

It's a bad idea to compare every opponent with Hitler, because: if you compare Putin to Hitler it also means that Hitler was no worse that Putin. We heard the same about Saddam some years ago, and about others etc; it does no good it only banalizes Hitler.

Geoff, Ukraine is not buying gas from Russia any more, as for oil we have discussed that – first, they're still paying, second, none in Europe is complaining about getting less. Also, once you pump something on the territory of another state, you can't get it back – see all technical difficulties Europe is facing with reverse supplies to Ukraine. You need all pump stations between you and the target to operate in single direction, otherwise it simply doesn't work. I have friends and customers in gas transportation, too ;)

As for guns:

"Members of Right Sector have not just hunting rifles but also military weapons that were seized from an Interior Ministry arsenal in western Ukraine in the final days of the uprising".

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and they also got more by joining National Guard.

That would be correct. But I understand that Russia isn't buying (paying for) water to Crimea (possibly not helped by the fact that they refuse to recognise/talk to those in power in Kyiv, making it difficult to negotiate any deal)?

We don't seem to have seen much evidence of those weapons on the street, unlike the AKs and RPGs openly sported by masked uniformed men in the east(?)

"Can you definitely prove they are anything else Tuscaloosa?"

Easily. But to your satisfaction, probably not, if you want to think they are a groundswell of well equipped local civil activists. There is a long tradition of Russian foreign policy depending on "useful idiots" to swallow their propaganda.

I'm always prepared to consider evidence. I have stated my beliefs that they are, in fact, far more than simply well equipped local civil activists, but I think if such proof was definitive beyond doubt we would be seeing a much stronger stance.

There is a long tradition of Russian foreign policy depending on "useful idiots" to swallow their propaganda

As this definition often included people who were unhappy to swallow any other propaganda as well (including from their own governments), I've probably stood amongst them many times.
But in that case I'm also convinced there are some Russian military in there. I've no proof – only that no major power would restrain itself in that situation. It would be insulting them to think that they are absent. And, they being there can probably restrain some of the most agitated activists from doing worse.

I like this picture…however impression that I'm getting and the impression it was supposed to create are different, I guess…

[URL=http://s4.photobucket.com/user/Steelhand/media/TN8Yq_bq5oE_zpsd304ff22.jpg.html]

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It was supposed to tell the readers that Russia and Putin are behind everything, while I see it as an obsession with outside influence and oversimplifying the situation in Ukraine…

Bit of both, I think.

There is certainly some internal organic move, but I think it is being far greater weight than is a true representation of the country, in part due to media sensationalism.

Equally it is hard to see that there is not some external influence (being applied directly), but it is not all Putin's personal plan by far.

It would help defuse a lot of the tension if Russia would denounce that seizing buildings by [heavily] armed force is not acceptable if they want a referendum though. Then it's down to ensuring that the upcoming elections are properly representative of both east and west, which could be done by a joint Russia/EU programme.

Current situation with the proposed referendum is again complicated. Kiev is proposing country-wide referendum, i.e. in accordance with Ukrainian constitution with unknown question. In accordance with this constitution the regions have no right for self-determination (it is natural) and the fate of regions will be in the hands of all Ukrainian voters. Therefore the East wants region-wide referendum, so the regions can decide the further course of action on their own. Of course, it contradicts the constitution, so will be even more illegal from Ukrainian point of view than Crimea. Also, as long as the amnesty is not issued by the parliament/government, all those who will lay down their weapons can be arrested – and those, who are already detained will face 12-25 years for treason and terrorism.
And even that the exercises that Russia started several days ago made the West furious, they have prevented more blood during military operation against Slavyansk…

It gets worse…

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"The mayor of the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv has been shot and critically wounded amid continuing unrest in the region. The mayor's office said Hennadiy Kernes was shot in the back by unknown gunmen, reportedly while he was out jogging. Mr Kernes used to be a supporter of the former pro-Moscow President Viktor Yanukovych. More recently he said he no longer backed the ousted president but supported a united Ukraine."

Difficult to know which side might have shot (logic sems to suggest pro-separation, but there will undoubtedly be calls of subterfuge to blame the other side(s)), or more likely a lone nutter.

…as long as the amnesty is not issued…

I thought they had declared an amnesty?

"The embattled acting president of Ukraine promised not to prosecute pro-Russian militants occupying government buildings in the east of the country if they laid down their arms and halted a four-day standoff."

I thought the issue was that they refused to back down unless the interim government and Maydan did so first, which they obviously cannot do as they would leave the country with no government whatsoever.

Although:

"If the administrative buildings are vacated, the law on amnesty will come into force, and we are ready to vote for it. We take into consideration the protesters' wishes… Turchynov pledged that in case of disarmament and clearing of seized administrative offices all participants of the seizure would be amnestied. But we should clearly understand that… people having committed grave crimes would not be amnestied in any way"

Well I can see those who have, for example, beaten up civilians or journalists may still be liable to prosecution as opposed to those merely holding buildings, although this (dated 18 April) could be viewed as a bit woolly… "you come out and we will vote on it…"

Kernes is a controversial but influential figure in Kharkov. Indeed it is not easy to say who wanted him dead, or out of politics for several months. Right now there is a talk of single sniper shot.

The East doesn't trust Kiev interim president, I'd also say-pass the law first, as was demanded during Maidan and then at least the people will have a choice, now they don't. Turchinov will step out of the office end of May, and his promises are not going to protect people from being called traitors and terrorists. In theory, any of the armed protesters in the buildings can be prosecuted under Ukrainian laws.

Galina has maintained from the outset that the current interim government are all sacrificial – they may not have realised it, but she anticipated that few of them would survive a full election.

I agree, if they want them to vacate then any offer of amnesty has to be signed and enforceable post election. There is a lot of heat floating about that needs to be cooled.

The US has…

"…imposed sanctions on seven Russian individuals and 17 companies linked to President Vladimir Putin's "inner circle"

Western nations accuse Moscow of supporting separatist gunmen who are occupying official buildings in cities across eastern Ukraine."

While actively 'supporting' remains difficult to prove (no definitive evidence of Russian soldiers present, no definitive evidence of weapons being supplied externally, no Russian armoured vehicles shown to have so far crossed the border – barring some alleged transgressions by aircraft last week), certainly there would appear to be a case for not at the very least condemning their actions… a situation that surely would not be tolerated if it was occuring by, say, heavily armed and uniformed pro-western groups occupying buildings in areas around Moscow??

If one was to get into the heads of the people in charge of the Ukrainian Provisional Government and the ad hoc "soviets" in the Donbass cities which have seized local public buildings, could one find any common ground around which all would rally? Is there nothing which is common to both ends of this cultural and political spectrum that could serve as a glue to repair Ukrainian unity? Why can't Ukraine become an officially bilingual and bi-cultural society in which neighbours of different language groups coexist and celebrate each other? Why must Ukraine adopt western economic models which threaten the coal and farming economy of the Southeast? Why are Eastern Ukrainians not able to see that the seizure of Crimea was an attack against them as well as the Kiev government. After all they used to vacation there too. Why shouldn't Ukrainian children be encouraged to learn both Ukrainian and Russian? Perhaps it is time that the many millions of Ukrainians of good will and level heads become vocal and drown out these polarizing radicals in order to demand sensible and balanced policies which benefit the maximum number of Ukrainians of all cultural traditions. The general population must wake up and take responsibility for their future and not let radicals and oligarchs destroy the country for their own selfish reasons. Is there no good will and fair-mindedness left in Ukraine?

Very fair questions

Is there no good will and fair-mindedness left in Ukraine?

I'm guessing there's a great deal of both, but as neither commands fantastic ratings, and in any case tend to be overshadowed when the guns come out, we're unlikely to hear of much in that direction.

As usual, it seems to be a more vocal minority, rather than the majority, who are getting far more media attention than they probably would ever do in a normal daily living. Even the protests are relatively small – a few thousand in a city of 1-1.5 million…

Problem is, as you say, the great unspoken majority say even less when the guns come out, same as anywhere really, and the odd one or two who dare speak out are found floating face down round the back of a dumpster.

"At an OSCE meeting in Vienna, Russian ambassador Andrei Kelin said Moscow was taking "steps" to secure the observers' release. But the area around Sloviansk was very tense and it had been "extremely irresponsible" to send them there, he added."

Isn't it partly the point to send them into places that are troubled? Doesn't seem much point sending them somewhere safe, away from all the trouble?

"In Donetsk itself, pro-Russian activists armed with clubs and chains attacked a pro-unity rally, correspondents and eyewitnesses said. A number of people were injured in the clash."

Maydan saw people protesting against the government. This is just turning into mob v mob aggression.

"Moscow has voiced concern over an "unprecedented" increase in US and Nato military activity near Russian borders, amid an escalating crisis in Ukraine."

As they are referring to 'near Russian borders' I assume that means Latvia/Lithuania rather than those sent to Poland, as Poland isn't near the border…? ;-)

Although, "The squadron will number twelve F-16 planes and will transport 300 soldiers (now increased to 600). Initially, the training exercise was planned to be smaller but was increased and pushed forward because of the "tense political situation" in neighboring Ukraine" – doesn't exactly seem an unprecedented increase, especially as Russia has an estimated 40,000 troops 'on exercise' near Ukraine (?)

However, assuming they are referring to the Baltic countries:

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"The air training event will involve F-15C Eagle of the U.S. Air Force currently deployed on NATO's Baltic Air Policing mission, JAS-39 Gripen aircraft of the Swedish Air Force, C-27J Spartan transport aircraft and Mi-8 helicopter of the Lithuanian Air Force. Furthermore, NATO Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft based in Germany and U.S. KC-135R air refuelling aircraft are expected to join the exercise."

Clearly escalation…

On the other hand…

"The Baltic Regional Training Event (BRTE) has already been arranged for five years in succession by Headquarters Allied Air Command (COM AIRCOM) Ramstein and Combined Air Operations Centre Uedem (CAOC Uedem). Usually, three BRTEs are organised every year."

Training exercises are not cheap, and rarely announced on a whim. I'm still wondering how much it is costing the Russian economy to keep that lot 'on exercise' near Ukraine.

Actually it is over. Troops were ordered to stop exercises as soon as Ukraine announced that they're not going to use troops against protestors any more.

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Anyway, it is propaganda war. Russia will be inflating NATO actions, Western media will be (un)intentionally omitting information on Russian exercises stopped. Nothing new here…

"A small group of men broke windows to gain access to the building, which was not protected by police"

There does seem to be a lot of breaking windows. One wonders why they couldn't just use the door if it wasn't being protected.

Somehow I think the chap in the chair is more in it for the 'cool factor' of busting into offices than the democratic right to self determination…

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Doh! Wonder if Vlad will complain to the UN!

Uesugi Kenshin:
Today Vladimir, tomorrow the world – Oh, that was last year! The days of Total Informational Awareness are fast approaching! Soon we will all have no secrets and will be unable to disrupt our neighbour's lives covertly. Sigh.
Little Brother.

Not the first time such claim is made…so let's see these proofs first. Otherwise it might end like this:

Maybe Snowden will provide the proof Barin.

Very good Barin :-)

Although he does, of course, have a point. The badge is GRU Spetznaz… because he would of course be wearing that prominently while operating in a hostile environment…

What do the Europeans want to do about the Ukrainian situation?
Its really in their backyard…

@Maresciallo….when you consider the Ukraine has, I think, a contiguous border with 3 Nato member states I would say "yes" it is their back yard.

Doesnt mean they should go to war over it, but its concerning.

Ukraine, not the Ukraine. Its not the Mexico, the Russia or the Germany…